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Airport expansions

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AlastairFraser

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I suppose they might. But unlikely I think.
Well, it aleo depends on their subsidy provider for some routes, surely?
I’m sure there will be an army of people biting your hand off to sit on a bus for an hour instead of in the Lounge.
On a bus for an hour? How does Euston to Padd direct on a shuttle bus take an hour???!
HeX isn't exactly slow either.
 

DiscoSteve

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BA actually has a lot of workers in South Wales

You're right that they send their A380s to the Philippines, but the UK is obviously cost-effective enough for BA to continue to invest and expand its own maintenance facilities.
You do know that South Wales is a 'Low Cost Location'? Why do you think loads of jobs/roles got sent to Newport a few years back (creating monstrous numbers of journeys up and down the M4 and Wales-Paddington Railway in the process)
 

gabrielhj07

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On a bus for an hour? How does Euston to Padd direct on a shuttle bus take an hour???!
HeX isn't exactly slow either.
I’m guessing that the number of people arriving at Euston with through tickets to Heathrow is not a lot. Probably not enough to justify more than an infrequent bus trip, maybe every 30 minutes? Plenty of standing around to be accounted for.
 

TravelDream

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Think that’s more to do with Cardiff being full than anything else.

Cardiff has only ever done the widebody Boeing fleet. 747, 777, and 787. Soon to be the A350 of course.

You do know that South Wales is a 'Low Cost Location'? Why do you think loads of jobs/roles got sent to Newport a few years back (creating monstrous numbers of journeys up and down the M4 and Wales-Paddington Railway in the process)

Low cost compared to London, yes.
But salaries in South Wales are not particularly different to those in London for the roles we're talking about.

Not quite the Philippines comparison.
 

Skymonster

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I don't need to get over it but the UK government has a legal commitment to deliver it?
Hopefully one day we’ll get a government (similar to the one the USA has just got) that is prepared to rip up a lot of the ludicrous global agreements that are holding us back.

Whilst business travel may have dropped off, the ability to ship high end tech to and from the U.K. rapidly is something that must not be understated.
Along with all the Ali and Temu carp we’re buying that’s coming arriving into East Midlands and Cardiff pretty much daily in 747-400 freighters and A340-600 preighters. I‘m actually surprised the green loonies haven’t latched onto that yet. Not much capacity for it in the London area at the moment - maybe a good thing for the airlines involved and the companies manufacturing it all as it keeps it a little under the radar.

ou do know that South Wales is a 'Low Cost Location'?
Indeed, Wales much cheaper than London and the existing facilities are simply capitalising on a resource that’s already there. Apart from Boeing at Gatwick (Jet2 at Manchester is more of a like-for-like replacement) there’s been no major new / additional MROs setting up in the UK for decades, and not much expansion either. More hangars could be built, but they’ve not been - not at the rate they have been elsewhere anyway. While yes some major MRO does take place here, a good deal of it is outsourced into cheaper labour markets. Again, there are reasons why there are major providers that have been set up in Eastern Europe and the Far East.
 

Chester1

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Does Reeves really want Heathrow to expand or is she planning to "compromise" at a later date to support expansion of the other London Airports? The combined political risk of expanding Gatwick, Luton and Stansted is significantly less than the building the third runway. I just can't see any government following through with the necessary support the owners of Heathrow need.
 

Bald Rick

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Well, it aleo depends on their subsidy provider for some routes, surely?
It does. And the cost of running a hydrogen plane, especially the hydrogen itself and the fuelling facilities at every airport, means someone is going to have to take a fairly big decision.

For example, would IoM / NI ministers / Dundee councillors really want to spend all that extra money (and it would be a lot) to decarbonise a small handful of flights a day, when for the same money one expects they could do much more decarbonisation through other means?
 

Tetchytyke

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but LHR is the largest air cargo hub in the U.K.
And East Midlands is a close second. East Midlands receives the vast majority of the dedicated cargo traffic to the UK.

East Midlands isn’t at capacity either, it isn’t anywhere near it.

So bang goes the cargo argument too.
 

Skymonster

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And East Midlands is a close second. East Midlands receives the vast majority of the dedicated cargo traffic to the UK.

East Midlands isn’t at capacity either, it isn’t anywhere near it.

So bang goes the cargo argument too.
You can’t simply say that cargo can be moved (to East Midlands).

East Midlands has pretty much zero belly hold freight, and these days not much outsize either. East Midlands’ business is almost all courier, mail and parcel - DHL, FedEx, UPS, Royal Mail. East Midlands’ network isn’t that massive either - it has some point-to-point including a few long haul but it is very much fed / feeds through other hubs such as Brussels, Leipzig, Cologne etc, all of which are much larger. Finally, in terms of the type of business it specialises in East Midlands is pretty full - it has the country’s busiest runway overnight and there’s very little apron space available. Sure there’s a lot of room in the day, but that’s not when the sort of cargo that passes through East Midlands needs to be moved - you can’t fly the majority courier and mail in the daytime, that’s not how the business works. To handle a lot more cargo, EMA will need to expand its facilities. The reason why the 747-400Fs that come and go to China most days (Ali / Temu) can use EMA is that they can be scheduled in the daytime.

On the other hand, almost all of Heathrow’s cargo is belly hold. And a fair bit of it is larger / heavier items that the courier firms wouldn’t touch. Being carried in the hold of widebodied passenger jets, it can make a substantial contribution to / support revenue generation. And not all of it is UK O&D either - trans-shipment is in the mix. So most cargo passing through Heathrow doesn’t actually eat into runway capacity or use slots, but it is important in supporting the passenger operation.
 

Bald Rick

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You can’t simply say that cargo can be moved (to East Midlands).

East Midlands has pretty much zero belly hold freight, and these days not much outsize either. East Midlands’ business is almost all courier, mail and parcel - DHL, FedEx, UPS, Royal Mail. East Midlands’ network isn’t that massive either - it has some point-to-point including a few long haul but it is very much fed / feeds through other hubs such as Brussels, Leipzig, Cologne etc, all of which are much larger. Finally, in terms of the type of business it specialises in East Midlands is pretty full - it has the country’s busiest runway overnight and there’s very little apron space available. Sure there’s a lot of room in the day, but that’s not when the sort of cargo that passes through East Midlands needs to be moved - you can’t fly the majority courier and mail in the daytime, that’s not how the business works. To handle a lot more cargo, EMA will need to expand its facilities. The reason why the 747-400Fs that come and go to China most days (Ali / Temu) can use EMA is that they can be scheduled in the daytime.

On the other hand, almost all of Heathrow’s cargo is belly hold. And a fair bit of it is larger / heavier items that the courier firms wouldn’t touch. Being carried in the hold of widebodied passenger jets, it can make a substantial contribution to / support revenue generation. And not all of it is UK O&D either - trans-shipment is in the mix. So most cargo passing through Heathrow doesn’t actually eat into runway capacity or use slots, but it is important in supporting the passenger operation.

Good post, and well explained.

Broadly speaking EMA is part of the ‘next day‘ logistics chain (being at the top end of the golden triangle) whereas Heathrow is mostly for larger and/or less urgent / longer distance stuff.
 

pug1

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And East Midlands is a close second. East Midlands receives the vast majority of the dedicated cargo traffic to the UK.

East Midlands isn’t at capacity either, it isn’t anywhere near it.

So bang goes the cargo argument too.
Ok so did you read what I wrote?

LHR handles freight from BELLY HOLD cargo on passenger flights, the type that will only be handled on passenger flights because there isn’t the demand to fill a freighter from every single destination that LHR serves. EMA may be one of the largest pure freight airports in the country, but it’s a different beast entirely and will not compete with LHR because it’s a completely different market.

Do you always miss the point or are you being intentionally obtuse?
 

TravelDream

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EMA works as an express cargo hub (of sorts) due to its central location and 24/7 unrestricted operation.
Stansted is already working on its own expansion project which make it capable of handling more passengers than Gatwick currently does

Much needed. I've only been through STN a couple of times in the last year or so and it was packed to the rafters even outside of the school holidays.

Ok so did you read what I wrote?

He never reads what people write. No point responding.
 

Ediswan

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Broadly speaking EMA is part of the ‘next day‘ logistics chain (being at the top end of the golden triangle) whereas Heathrow is mostly for larger and/or less urgent / longer distance stuff.
From memory, also imports of fresh 'exotic' fruit and veg, headed for the Western International Market, M4 J3.
 

Tetchytyke

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So, summarise, we simply must expand Heathrow.

This is because of passenger demand, even though the airlines are dumping huge amounts of capacity at bargain basement prices.

This is also because of cargo, even though East Midlands is at the heart of the global cargo network and has plenty of spare capacity.

Rachel Reeves can’t even remember what job she did at HBOS. No wonder she’s in favour of Heathrow being allowed to make tens of thousands of people homeless because, well, reasons.
 
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Supporters of a third runway at Heathrow should state exactly what they propose to build, a complete list of other infrastructure changes needed, how much the third runway project and the other infrastructure changes needed to support it would cost in total, how much of this cost they expect Heathrow Airport to pay for, how much of this cost they expect taxpayers to pay for and how long it would all take and therefore the expected completion date.
 

Tetchytyke

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On the other hand, almost all of Heathrow’s cargo is belly hold. And a fair bit of it is larger / heavier items that the courier firms wouldn’t touch. Being carried in the hold of widebodied passenger jets, it can make a substantial contribution to / support revenue generation.
I know. My understanding that Emirates’ Newcastle route really makes its money from what’s in the 777’s belly. I doubt it is alone. As others have said, it’s why we have wide body jets on some weird routes out of Heathrow.

My point is that all the reasons given as to why we simply must expand Heathrow- and bugger the environment, and bugger the poor sods who will be made homeless- simply don’t stand up to scrutiny.

We have excess capacity everywhere in the system, even at Heathrow. We should use it before we bulldoze half of West London just because it will make some dictator’s investment fund a bit richer.
 

Joe Paxton

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So, summarise, we simply must expand Heathrow.
[...] No wonder she’s in favour of Heathrow being allowed to make tens of thousands of people homeless because, well, reasons.

I'm not in favour of expanding Heathrow - great swathes of London are already under the existing flightpaths for a start - however, none of the various plans entail "tens of thousands" of people being relocated.

The North West runway plan, which is the one that had been eventually settled upon, would take out 761 homes - including all of Langford village, much of Harmondsworth village, a few houses in Sipson and a 'square block' of 1930's houses off Bath Road (Zealand Avenue and Pinglestone Close).

See:
BBC News - Heathrow expansion: What is the third runway plan? (Dec 2020)
 

pug1

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So, summarise, we simply must expand Heathrow.

This is because of passenger demand, even though the airlines are dumping huge amounts of capacity at bargain basement prices.

This is also because of cargo, even though East Midlands is at the heart of the global cargo network and has plenty of spare capacity.

Rachel Reeves can’t even remember what job she did at HBOS. No wonder she’s in favour of Heathrow being allowed to make tens of thousands of people homeless because, well, reasons.
Again, rather than being obnoxious you should perhaps accept what is being said to you and not just ignoring the key points. There’s a reason people like you get ignored then you complain when they don’t listen to you. You simply have no argument.

EMA = pure freight
LHR = belly freight

Hubs work by using feeder services to enable maximisation of useage.

Use those facts and try spinning a cohere argument.

I sympathise with your point about the impact expansion of LHR would have on the environment and the people that live close to it, but I haven’t seen a workable alternative solution being proposed.
 
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Snow1964

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Supporters of a third runway at Heathrow should state exactly what they propose to build, a complete list of other infrastructure changes needed, how much the third runway project and the other infrastructure changes needed to support it would cost in total, how much of this cost they expect Heathrow Airport to pay for, how much of this cost they expect taxpayers to pay for and how long it would all take and therefore the expected completion date.
The Heathrow expansion documents and plans are on this link.
This all dates from pre covid in 2019. There hasn't been any updates since, but with air travel now back after its pandemic lows, it will be change to timescale, rather than different masterplan


 
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The Heathrow expansion documents and plans are on this link.
This all dates from pre covid in 2019. There hasn't been any updates since, but with air travel now back after its pandemic lows, it will be change to timescale, rather than different masterplan
This consultation dated in 2019 claims construction would take roughly five years but provides no information about costs and who will pay for it. Even if it could be funded and built this third runway would not be operational until well into the 2030s at the earliest.
 

Sad Sprinter

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Stansted is already working on its own expansion project which make it capable of handling more passengers than Gatwick currently does


Stansted needs faster connections to London and better rail connections eastwards. I always toy with the idea in my head of North Weald aerodrome having become a site for a major airport. Right on the Central Line and next to the M25
 

Meerkat

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I sympathise with your point about the impact expansion of LHR would have on the environment and the people that live close to it, but I haven’t seen a workable alternative solution being proposed.
The workable alternative is to not do it, the cost is too high, the roads already overloaded.

There has to be a point where you draw the line.
 

Skymonster

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This is because of passenger demand, even though the airlines are dumping huge amounts of capacity at bargain basement prices.
Sheesh, do you really not get it? Or are you just bent out of shape because it can cost more to fly from the UK than from other parts of Europe?

Airlines aren’t dumping huge amounts of capacity at Heathrow at bargain basement prices. Do you really think British Airways would sell seats at lower fares if it could earn more? It charges the UK market what the UK market will stand. To fill aeroplanes some routes, it sells connections over Heathrow. Yes, they may be at a lower price / lower yield, but they’ll still cover DOCs and make a contribution to the bottom line. Fares over Heathrow are set based on what the origin-destination market will stand, competing with other airlines and other hubs, and taking into consideration a connection is often seen as less desirable than a direct flight. For routes that are beneficial to the UK but can’t be sustained by the local market alone, there is a choice of selling connecting traffic or abandoning them. If it constantly cuts UK fares to match some connecting fares, it trashes its local yields.

You can’t run a hub and just ignore connecting traffic - if you do it isn’t a hub anymore. And if you insist Heathrow is just an O&D airport, you’ll lose some routes altogether and lose frequency on others - both of which are important to the market. Unfortunately for those who want to bury their heads in the sand, the UK aviation market can’t be considered in isolation - it is part of and depends on a continental and global market. If we do take it in isolation, the country just becomes more isolated.

Ironically the turndown resulting from virus did have an impact on the Heathrow market. It got rid of a few [mainly state supported] carriers that probably shouldn’t have been there but were grandfathered slots and operated to Heathrow as a “trophy” route rather than for the revenue. It provided some breathing space and allowed in a few more commercially focused carriers at reasonable times. But now the airport is pretty full again and will continue to get more restrictive in terms of capacity - runway and terminal. Hence the need to start the process of laying more concrete.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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This decision is plain daft in the face of climate needs but given the failure of the rail industry over the last decade to deliver anything cost effectively let alone on time its hardly a surprising outcome. The industry should hold its head in shame and needs a root and branch overhaul to restore it back to 1980's way of thinking and delivering but that needs the likes of a Chris Green and i just dont see that person.
 

Skymonster

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Stansted needs faster connections to London and better rail connections eastwards.
As I said previously Stansted is not a hub, it is a point-to-point airport. It won’t become a hub while ever it is clogged up by Ryanair and easyJet. The chances of getting a network carrier into Stansted is remote unless one of those two change its business model. This doesn’t make Stansted bad per se, but outside the low-cost sector it will be challenging attracting new routes because thinner markets need connectivity to support them. And that’s why a Heathrow hub is still important and needs to be able to accommodate growing UK demand.
 

Meerkat

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And that’s why a Heathrow hub is still important and needs to be able to accommodate growing UK demand.
If demand is growing so much it should be able to sustain a second hub rather than expand Heathrow at enormous cost to the area.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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As I said previously Stansted is not a hub, it is a point-to-point airport. It won’t become a hub while ever it is clogged up by Ryanair and easyJet. The chances of getting a network carrier into Stansted is remote unless one of those two change its business model. This doesn’t make Stansted bad per se, but outside the low-cost sector it will be challenging attracting new routes because thinner markets need connectivity to support them. And that’s why a Heathrow hub is still important and needs to be able to accommodate growing UK demand.
Stansted recovered faster from COVID than most other airports and have to say that even with LGW on my doorstep i find STAN a much more organised airport as a passenger and generally far cheaper to most destinations. Leave them to what they do best point to point.
 

Skymonster

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This decision is plain daft in the face of climate needs
Ah climate, the biggest load of bolloxology since we were all told that we’d kill each other if we stood within two meters of anyone else. Both primarily designed to keep us all in our places. What’s the alternative to allowing air transport to grow? Constrain demand through state-mandated prices hikes? Refuse to develop additional infrastructure? Those approaches are so blinkered. The human race doesn’t make progress and improve through being inhibited, restricted and taxed. It does so by being allowed to unfetteredly grow and innovate. Until we accept this and let go of the net zero lunacy, the UK will have one massive hand tied behind its back. Trump seems to know what‘s needed - sadly the UK government seems not to want to know.
 

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