2016 US election discussion

[TheNewNo2]

He looks like Jeremy Corbyn compared to Trump or Cruz!

He's really not. There is little to no policy difference between the GOP candidates, it's just a matter of how vaguely they say it. Cruz is a legitimate ideologue and makes no bones about his beliefs; Trump says whatever comes ti mind; Rubio et al agree with Cruz and Trump but don't quite say it the same way.

 

[Busaholic]

Trump says whatever comes ti mind

That's the problem - his mind. The main mental health charity in this country used to be called Mind.

 

[Stonesourscotty]

I've just bought a t shirt with donald trump's brains splattering all over the t shirt

 

[90sWereBetter]

He's really not. There is little to no policy difference between the GOP candidates, it's just a matter of how vaguely they say it. Cruz is a legitimate ideologue and makes no bones about his beliefs; Trump says whatever comes ti mind; Rubio et al agree with Cruz and Trump but don't quite say it the same way.

Indeed. Rubio is on record that he would ban abortion in all cases, including rape, incest, and if the mother's life is threatened. What an exceedingly decent chap. :roll:

 

[Hornet]

Indeed. Rubio is on record that he would ban abortion in all cases, including rape, incest, and if the mother's life is threatened. What an exceedingly decent chap. :roll:

No different to the abortion laws that exist today in the Republic of Ireland. Check the Eighth Amendment of the Irish Constitution.

 

[me123]

Trump looks to be comfortably in the lead in NH. Even if we assume that the polls overestimate his lead (as they did in IA), he's still likely to win by a comfortable margin. Looks like a Sanders win on the Democrats.

 

[Busaholic]

Trump looks to be comfortably in the lead in NH. Even if we assume that the polls overestimate his lead (as they did in IA), he's still likely to win by a comfortable margin. Looks like a Sanders win on the Democrats.

Will Trump decry the result if he wins this time?

 

[TheNewNo2]

Apparently someone has actually bothered to make an anti-Kasich ad. This bodes well for him!

 

[90sWereBetter]

Unsurprisingly, Trump easily won the New Hampshire primary, but I think the main news story here is just how badly Rubio did. With Kasich and Jeb! doing much better than expected, I think he's blown it. Even Cruz, who I wasn't expecting to do well here, beat him.

Over on the side of sanity, Sanders easily swept aside Hillary. The question is, can he turn that into momentum and sweep more primaries.

And finally, Jim Gilmore saw a 942% increase in votes last night over his performance in Iowa! I tell ya, old James is gonna get the GOP nomination.

 

[me123]

No surprises last night. Interestingly, Trump gathered a lower proportion of the votes than predicted in the polling for Iowa, but in NH he's actually up in the predictions. So any suggestions that his supporters may be more reluctant to go out and vote can be put safely to bed. He could very possibly do this, and that is seriously scary.

Rubio is a moron. If he was considered the "big hope" to beat Trump, then the GOP clearly don't have much in the way of talent. (No surprises there either). Any hope to stop Trump will have to come from the Democrats.

 

[Busaholic]

New Hampshire rarely ends up voting for the winners on either side cf Hillary Clinton in 2008 and McCain when he massively outvoted Dubya before that. Hope they were right this time about Sanders though.

 

[TheNewNo2]

New Hampshire has certainly shaken up the race a bit. Of course it's still only massively white states which have voted so far. South Carolina will be the real test for Clinton v Sanders.

On the GOP side, Kasich! This should be the end of Christie, who can't even get people in his own state to say he should be president. Carson and Fiorina will probably stay in a while longer, and the "establishment lane" of Bush v Rubio v Kasich (!) is wide open enough that they can all pretend they have a chance. Cruz slid by silently in the night, though it wasn't exactly a good time for him, but I'd still rate him over Kasich.

 

[backontrack]

New Hampshire has certainly shaken up the race a bit. Of course it's still only massively white states which have voted so far. South Carolina will be the real test for Clinton v Sanders.

This should be the end of Christie, who can't even get people in his own state to say he should be president.

Guiltily, I do like Christie. It's not because of his political views - they're all largely the same between the nine of them - but the fact that he looks like Fred Flintstone.

 

[southern442]

Any hope to stop Trump will have to come from the Democrats.

I definitely think they Democrats are more than capable of shutting Trump down. Don't forget that Trump only got 30% of the support whilst the winning Democrat, Sanders, has a majority of Democrat voters. The Republican nominees hate each other, but Democrat voters would be satisfied with either Clinton or Sanders for the most part.

 

[me123]

New Hampshire has certainly shaken up the race a bit. Of course it's still only massively white states which have voted so far. South Carolina will be the real test for Clinton v Sanders.

On the GOP side, Kasich! This should be the end of Christie, who can't even get people in his own state to say he should be president. Carson and Fiorina will probably stay in a while longer, and the "establishment lane" of Bush v Rubio v Kasich (!) is wide open enough that they can all pretend they have a chance. Cruz slid by silently in the night, though it wasn't exactly a good time for him, but I'd still rate him over Kasich.

More like President Paul Blart from Pixels (for those who have unfortunately seen either movie I'm referring to).

I'm surprised Carson (the creationist neurosurgeon) hasn't withdrawn yet. His campaign is just laughable. The Guardian was allegedly the only newspaper to even bother sending a journalist along to his post-election party:

The attendance at the party briefly peaked at about 50 people. It wasn’t much of a party. Supporters milled around chatting. Food was served. There were two bars set up but neither was inundated. A woman working behind one of them spent much of her time knitting a blanket.

On a more serious note, he's recently suggested that he'll happily be Trump's VP.

I do not understand why his campaign is still happening.

 

[TheNewNo2]

More like President Paul Blart from Pixels (for those who have unfortunately seen either movie I'm referring to).

I'm surprised Carson (the creationist neurosurgeon) hasn't withdrawn yet. His campaign is just laughable. The Guardian was allegedly the only newspaper to even bother sending a journalist along to his post-election party:

On a more serious note, he's recently suggested that he'll happily be Trump's VP.

I do not understand why his campaign is still happening.

I actually liked Pixels - I thought it was generally very funny. It was incredibly misogynistic, but the bits that weren't were quite fun.

Regarding Carson, while he's running he's making money. He's raised a lot, spent a lot, but it hasn't been on anything visible, so most likely it's part of the Great Conservative Ponzi Scheme.

Fiorina's just announced she's dropping out.

 

[NY Yankee]

I definitely think they Democrats are more than capable of shutting Trump down. Don't forget that Trump only got 30% of the support whilst the winning Democrat, Sanders, has a majority of Democrat voters. The Republican nominees hate each other, but Democrat voters would be satisfied with either Clinton or Sanders for the most part.

There are rumors that the narcissistic former Mayor of NYC, Michael Bloomberg, will run. While he was mayor, NYC was much safer than it is now. However, he was a control freak as well as an aloof elitist. Nevertheless, he is a much better candidate than Trump. Sanders has a cult following, but he's too far to the left to win. Hillary is seen as part of the establishment. Some people are just tired of the Clinton's. I'm not a fan of Bloomberg, but this could be the first time in history that a 3rd party wins.

 

[Busaholic]

There are rumors that the narcissistic former Mayor of NYC, Michael Bloomberg, will run. While he was mayor, NYC was much safer than it is now. However, he was a control freak as well as an aloof elitist. Nevertheless, he is a much better candidate than Trump. Sanders has a cult following, but he's too far to the left to win. Hillary is seen as part of the establishment. Some people are just tired of the Clinton's. I'm not a fan of Bloomberg, but this could be the first time in history that a 3rd party wins.

Would Bloomberg get much support away from New York and some Eastern states?

 

[TheNewNo2]

There are rumors that the narcissistic former Mayor of NYC, Michael Bloomberg, will run. While he was mayor, NYC was much safer than it is now. However, he was a control freak as well as an aloof elitist. Nevertheless, he is a much better candidate than Trump. Sanders has a cult following, but he's too far to the left to win. Hillary is seen as part of the establishment. Some people are just tired of the Clinton's. I'm not a fan of Bloomberg, but this could be the first time in history that a 3rd party wins.

No, a third party on the left would just fracture the Democratic vote. Bloomberg should only run if Trump also does as an independent.
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Conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died...

The GOP to a man is declaring they will not appoint anyone to the court until a new president takes office, and while the President nominates people, the Senate, under GOP control, has to approve them.

This makes the fight in November even more important. Scalia was by most accounts the most right-wing of the Supreme Court Justices, so if Obama/Clinton/Sanders gets to replace him, this could switch the makeup of the court from 5:4 conservative to 4:5 for the next generation or so.

 

[NY Yankee]

Scalia was racist and misogynistic. He was part of the GOP bigot establishment just like that Uncle Tom Clarence Thomas. And just to tell you how classless the GOP are, about 15 minutes after he died, they were already bickering about how they would filibuster Obama's choice for a replacement.

 

[miami]

Scalia was a liberal compared with the current crop of GOP candidates then?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

No surprises last night. Interestingly, Trump gathered a lower proportion of the votes than predicted in the polling for Iowa, but in NH he's actually up in the predictions. So any suggestions that his supporters may be more reluctant to go out and vote can be put safely to bed. He could very possibly do this, and that is seriously scary.

Being the age I am, I still see the ghost of Barry Goldwater and the 1964 election, every time that I see Trump.

 

[TheNewNo2]

I can't believe Obama's being so slow to nominate a Scalia replacement. President Trump would have nominated himself for the Supreme Court by now! </sarcasm>

Paul, much as I'd hope for a Goldwater election, that just wouldn't happen nowadays. There is so much polarisation that every nominee has a roughly 45% floor.

 

[Busaholic]

Being the age I am, I still see the ghost of Barry Goldwater and the 1964 election, every time that I see Trump.

I don't remember Goldwater being a showman, though. He probably actually believed in the sentiments he came out with too, whereas Trump will say anything that generates publicity and might garner him a few extra votes. Wasn't Goldwater a Texan too, up against Lyndon Baines Johnson, who would have all that state's votes sewn up?

 

[miami]

I can't believe Obama's being so slow to nominate a Scalia replacement. President Trump would have nominated himself for the Supreme Court by now! </sarcasm>

Paul, much as I'd hope for a Goldwater election, that just wouldn't happen nowadays. There is so much polarisation that every nominee has a roughly 45% floor.

Can supreme court judges stand for president? Obama could nominate Trump!

 

[NY Yankee]

Can supreme court judges stand for president? Obama could nominate Trump!

I doubt that- there would be a separation of powers issue. There are three branches of the US government- legislative, executive, and judicial. Through a series of checks and balances, each branch coexists with the other branch. None of the branches can have more power than the other two branches. For example, a Senator cannot render a Supreme Court decision.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35607597

Pope Francis has reportedly questioned Donald Trumps' Christianity.

"a person who only thinks about building walls... and not of building bridges, is not Christian"

the Pope said in Mexico today.

Donald Trump has called the comments

"Disgraceful"

Trump reportedly blamed Mexico according to the BBC.



I imagine that this blow might be disasterous for Trump in many states.

 

[miami]

I heard Trump was a Muslim who was born in Kenya

 

[90sWereBetter]

There is a poll out suggesting Cruz has now overtaken Trump nationally, 28% to 26%.

Washington (CNN)Ted Cruz has inched ahead of Donald Trump in a new national poll released Wednesday, the first national poll of the 2016 cycle that shows the Texas senator on top of the Republican field.

Cruz has the backing of 28% of Republican voters nationwide, unseating Trump, who won the support of 26% in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But Cruz's 2-point edge is within the poll's margin of error, and it's not clear if the survey captures real movement in the race or is simply an outlier.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio comes in third with 17% support, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 11%, Ben Carson at 10% and former Florida Gov. Jeb! Bush in last place with 4%.

The results are a major change from last month's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, when Trump held a 13-point lead over Cruz, 33% to 20%.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-poll-supreme-court/

I think we can safely say Jeb! is out of it. All those millions accumulated by his Super PAC, for 4% and a fourth place finish in New Hampshire. At least he revitalised the use of the humble exclamation mark, did Jeb! in his calamitous run. :P

 

[southern442]

Being the age I am, I still see the ghost of Barry Goldwater and the 1964 election, every time that I see Trump.

If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, it would take a miracle for them to win. By the way things are turning out, if he DID win, it would be by about 32-33% maximum. There are so many Republicans who would not vote (or maybe even vote Democrat) if Trump became the nominee. You could say the same about Cruz too.