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Much worse than I was expecting. Looking at the lists I'd estimate only 10% or so of the population are still in Tier 3. Liverpool, a few rural counties in the Midlands, and parts of the South West.

Can you remember if they mentioned anywhere in the North East? Last time I checked Hartlepool was an issue but most of the region seemed relatively okay.

This is something which I'm definitely interested in - I recall a post on here from a few weeks back noting that the areas with large increases at that time almost perfectly mapped to areas with significant commuting to London. I'm not aware of any studies but Though one thing I've noticed is...

Having dug deeper, it seems to have come from someone tweeting about a Daily Express article from a few days back. Like the Express is wont to do, it was a rather extreme headline warning that Tier 5 was possible based on very little evidence.

Yep, it seems to have gone viral with most tweets reacting to the fact Tier 5 is trending rather than to any actual announcement. It's also worth noting that the vast majority of reactions to it are of horror, it's not as if Twitter is full of people clamouring for a new tier.

We leave London Bridge station and head to the adjacent bus stops, boarding the 1247 Metroline Travel service 43 to Highgate Station (Stop G), arriving at 1343 on Wednesday afternoon.

There are going to be some changes to bus services around Abingdon in January, and unfortunately the X2 won't run to Wallingford. They've retained a frequency of two buses per hour on a rerouted service 33 between Wallingford and Didcot, but only one of these will continue to Abingdon. Still...

I don't think so - the constituency in which I go to university has a Lib Dem MP. She has been a very vocal advocate of a "zero-Covid" approach. In addition, Lib Dem voters tend to show up as most supportive of lockdown in polling. I expect the big winners in the May local elections, if...

The other interesting group to watch will be Labour. They may accuse the Conservatives of favouring their supporters if restrictions are eased when the elderly are vaccinated, while young people are still at risk (even if that risk is much less likely to kill them). It'll be interesting to see...

I broadly agree with you. We'll get a better idea in the next month or two, because the big events in the summer will need to decide whether they will be held way in advance. I would expect many festivals like Glastonbury to be cancelled, for example, but smaller events towards the end of the...

Though in the US, politicians seem to be doing just that.

Very true. I don't find wearing one myself that difficult (thankfully), but seeing them everywhere just makes me feel miserable and even more isolated.

Of course, just because the furlough scheme exists in April doesn't mean it'll be used to the same extent. It's pretty likely that some businesses like nightclubs and large events won't be operating until at least then even in a fairly optimistic scenario. There will also be capacity reductions...

No, but I travelled around a lot in October and found lowest compliance in Stroud, which is a similar sort of place to Totnes in many ways. Highest compliance was on the Isle of Wight (though very few people wore them outdoors). Outdoor usage (and other ways of going beyond the measures) was...

I was expecting Tier 4 to mean mandatory masks outside, what with Sadiq Khan pushing so hard. I was pleasantly surprised to see that measure rejected. Though of course, knowing them, they'll end up bringing in a Tier 5...

Though many will sneak over the border to Keynsham, since Bath and North East Somerset bizarrely* still stays in Tier 2 (even though Somerset itself is up to Tier 3 now). * Well maybe not so bizarre - considering its rural western half is represented by Rees-Mogg...

Oh absolutely, you need a holistic view to make policy. And any mathematical model is only as good as the assumptions you make when devising it - and the data you feed into it.

In fairness, most of the modelling relies on the kinds of differential equations which plenty of mathematicians study day in, day out. One of my second year degree modules was actually on pandemic spread, so it's not as unlikely a fit as you might think.

But unlike Blair or Cameron, his constituency is rather marginal*, so he might not wish to resign since this will quite probably result in an extra Labour MP for the rest of the parliamentary term. Depending on his successor, he may also have a desire to be petty and act as a thorn in their...

It depends massively on the presenter - there are quite a few Tories but some who are much more left leaning. The same also applies to views on lockdowns and the virus - the different presenters all have very different views.