They may still have lost Waterloo in this phase, if they haven’t won any small contracts or schools in Huddersfield area
They have effectively doubled their patronage, even when you account for the loss of Keighley and Waterloo. Keighley only represents around 5% of the regions total patronage, while Waterloo accounts for a tiny fraction of Huddersfield.
Huddersfield itself represents around 10% of the regions patronage, and within that, Transdev accounts for only around 15%. So even assuming both Keighley and Waterloo are lost, they carry more with just a single win.
It's not really because, as we've seen elsewhere, the contracts tend to be awarded to multiple corporates.
And as Rotala are experiencing, you can lose work too.
Compared to deregulation it is night and day.
Franchising creates the opportunity for significant amounts of market share to change hands every 5 to 7 years, with relatively low barriers to entry. That creates something genuinely worth competing for not just individual routes, but a substantial share of the market. Operators can lose work under franchising, absolutely, but they can also win it back, expand their share, or enter markets they previously had little presence in. That competitive pressure did not exist under deregulation. With the exception of competing for crappy tenders that carry an insignificant amount of patronage.