Wind Power and UK Energy Use

[Bald Rick]

For sure solar and wind will displace more and more gas but not eliminate it for several decades as storage, especially long run, is way off being able to cope with a dunkelflaute in mid winter. UK uses nearly c1TWh/day in mid winter so a 3 day lull is c3TWh. The tree burners flat out can deliver 75GWh/day and nuclear pre Hinkley another 28GWh/day post AGR closures in 2028 and for sure there would be some wind. Batt storage is increasing at pace but is only 10GWh currently and will be no more than 100GWh by end of decade. So this scenario can only be met, without blackouts, by having sufficient alternative dispatchable generation ie not renewables.

I agree with all this, but will just add that unless something very unusual happens, there is always daylight every day too As a case in point, today. 49 days from the winter solstice, and solar will generate something in the region of 30GWh. Solar capacity will double in the next 6/7 years, and the capacity factors are increasing as more efficient panels come on line.

Separately we have the Planning and Infrastructure Bill progressing which should hopefully allow us to get on with building long run storage like Cloire Gas and other schemes.

Not really; Coire Glas (30GWh) has had planning consent for 5 years, Loch Earba (40GWh) got consent this year, and both are on the shortlist for Ofgem’s cap and floor scheme for Long Duration energy storage (along with smaller pumped storage projects of Loch Kemp 9GWh (consent decision expected imminently), Loch Na Cathrach 4GWh (consented), and one other… plus c70 Battery projects). The outstanding decisons are purely financial. Understandably, the promoters want to be sure they will get a return on some bery significant capital investment.

Loch Fearna (37GWh) and Glen Earrach (30GWh) have each been in the planning process for over 6 months with approval (or not) expected by Scottish Ministers next year AIUI. Balliemeanoch (45GWh) has been in longer, also awaiting a decision. Personally I can’t see all of these pumped storage projects progressing to completion in the next decade - there simply isn’t enough resource to deliver them all concurrently, from engineers to heavy transport to bedrooms in the Loch Ness area!

 

[brad465]

Wind Power reached a new record of 22.67GW yesterday (albeit this was only 0.13GW above the previous one). As discussed earlier, we need the grid upgrades to come online before some stonking wind power records are achieved.

 

[Nottingham59]

Wind Power reached a new record of 22.67GW yesterday (albeit this was only 0.13GW above the previous one). As discussed earlier, we need the grid upgrades to come online before some stonking wind power records are achieved.

I see gridwatch records only 17.8GW of wind at 1950h yesterday. Would that discrepancy be due to curtailment?

Wind power production

GB Wind Generation

gridwatch.co.uk

 

[HSTEd]

I see gridwatch records only 17.8GW of wind at 1950h yesterday. Would that discrepancy be due to curtailment?

Wind power production

GB Wind Generation

gridwatch.co.uk

This wind curtailment monitor suggests that very little if any wind was curtailed yesterday.

I think itsmore likely that gridwatch excludes the "embedded wind" figure that the system operator has as a separate field in its system demand data. After all it has no way of directly measuring embedded generation not connected to its system, so this is an estimate.

This can easily reach several gigawatts.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Wind Power reached a new record of 22.67GW yesterday (albeit this was only 0.13GW above the previous one). As discussed earlier, we need the grid upgrades to come online before some stonking wind power records are achieved.

Not entirely as Dogger Bank A ramps up production to 1.2GW as its connected below grid boundary B6 (Scotland-England) it wont be affected by grid constraints. Also yesterday wind disposition favoured the South end of the UK so majority of windfarms were operating near maximum capacity but Scottish ones weren't so no need to constrain off. With windfarm generation loaded to the South also lends itself to export opportunities as well. It will be 2029 before we see any material change in export capacity from Scotland when Eastern Green Links 1 & 2 get commissioned.

 

[Bald Rick]

It will be 2029 before we see any material change in export capacity from Scotland when Eastern Green Links 1 & 2 get commissioned.

In real time yes, but as several grid scale Battery Energy Storage systems come on line in the next few years, they will help ‘time shift’ some wind generation. Coalburn 1 (500MW, 1GWh) is due to be connected imminently. Coalburn 2 is twice the size, and that is about to start construction with connection 18-24 months away. There’s many other similar projects in Scotland underway, eg Eccles, Devilla (Kincardine) and Kilmarnock.

 

[brad465]

In real time yes, but as several grid scale Battery Energy Storage systems come on line in the next few years, they will help ‘time shift’ some wind generation. Coalburn 1 (500MW, 1GWh) is due to be connected imminently. Coalburn 2 is twice the size, and that is about to start construction with connection 18-24 months away. There’s many other similar projects in Scotland underway, eg Eccles, Devilla (Kincardine) and Kilmarnock.

Are there any websites live reporting battery charge/discharge? The site I refer to above hasn't yet worked out how to do it (the author has said on the site that if they did for now they'd show both charge and discharge as if discharge was happening). As more battery storage comes online its reporting becomes evermore important.

 

[brad465]

One year to the day after 22GW of wind power was achieved for the first time, 23GW has been reached, with a new highest generating value of 23.8GW

 

[HSTEd]

Loch Fearna (37GWh) and Glen Earrach (30GWh) have each been in the planning process for over 6 months with approval (or not) expected by Scottish Ministers next year AIUI. Balliemeanoch (45GWh) has been in longer, also awaiting a decision. Personally I can’t see all of these pumped storage projects progressing to completion in the next decade - there simply isn’t enough resource to deliver them all concurrently, from engineers to heavy transport to bedrooms in the Loch Ness area!

Perhaps it is time to expand one end of the Caledonian canal and bring in the offshore industry accommodation barges!
Also project cargo ships.

More seriously, it will be interesting to see how much actual increase in export from Scotland to England can be achieved by these battery schemes, which still won't be able to escape fundamental grid limits elsewhere in the system.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Perhaps it is time to expand one end of the Caledonian canal and bring in the offshore industry accommodation barges!
Also project cargo ships.

More seriously, it will be interesting to see how much actual increase in export from Scotland to England can be achieved by these battery schemes, which still won't be able to escape fundamental grid limits elsewhere in the system.

Well, they may be able to colocate hydrogen production for export/domestic industrial use if there is insufficient use of stored electricity.

 

[HSTEd]

Well, they may be able to colocate hydrogen production for export/domestic industrial use if there is insufficient use of stored electricity.

Honestly, we should probably installed heating elements from immersion heaters in the gas boiler return lines of houses, so in times of surplus electricity production in winter, we can substitute it for gas.

Unfortunately, a trial on that costs way more than I can convince someone to give me! The pain of academia!

 

[AndrewE]

Honestly, we should probably installed heating elements from immersion heaters in the gas boiler return lines of houses, so in times of surplus electricity production in winter, we can substitute it for gas.

Unfortunately, a trial on that costs way more than I can convince someone to give me! The pain of academia!

That is quite a good idea, but it involves plumbing and finding space for the immersion. Even solar thermal (which has been brilliant for me and is far more efficient than pv) is out of fashion because of the wet plumbing and twin-coil cylinder required. With the prices of panels and batteries nowadays I think people might use an "immersun" diverter to put energy they cannot export into an already-fitted immersion heater... however lots of houses don't have them. Presumably this is why you suggest the system.

I think it would be worth simply installing a battery and inverter in every house in the areas where there is surplus power for free*, that would mop up power that the long-distance grid couldn't handle, and draw it back when the surplus disappeared.

* the Octopus website has a curtailment tracker on it: today it says "So far in 2025, Britain has wasted £1,355,148,101 switching off wind turbines." £1.4 billion would buy a lot of batteries and pay for their installation, which is relatively straightforward.

 

[takno]

Honestly, we should probably installed heating elements from immersion heaters in the gas boiler return lines of houses, so in times of surplus electricity production in winter, we can substitute it for gas.

Unfortunately, a trial on that costs way more than I can convince someone to give me! The pain of academia!

While I quite like this idea, I think with more modern condenser boiler designs you might end up just reducing the effectiveness of the condensate stage. I think you'd either need to be able to return the water to full flow temperature through electricity alone and prevent the boiler firing at all, or you'd need to integrate the immersion heating more deeply into the boiler controls.

 

[al78]

I agree with all this, but will just add that unless something very unusual happens, there is always daylight every day too As a case in point, today. 49 days from the winter solstice, and solar will generate something in the region of 30GWh. Solar capacity will double in the next 6/7 years, and the capacity factors are increasing as more efficient panels come on line.

What we might ultimately need if we are to completely transition to renewable energy is to stop being so insular (e.g. drop the exceptionalist attitude) and take on more of a cooperative attitude with our near neighbouring countries (OMG heaven forbid we should become less like America) . By that, I mean connect our power grid to Europe/Scandinavia/Iceland so that if we get a period of anticyclonic gloom here, our power needs canbe supplemented by hydro from Norway, geothermal from Iceland, or solar from southern Europe. Weather conditions are not going to be identical across a region large enough to encompass all those countries. In addition, we need to implement storage facilities to get us at least partly through anti-solar/wind periods of weather.

 

[Ted633]

What we might ultimately need if we are to completely transition to renewable energy is to stop being so insular (e.g. drop the exceptionalist attitude) and take on more of a cooperative attitude with our near neighbouring countries (OMG heaven forbid we should become less like America) . By that, I mean connect our power grid to Europe/Scandinavia/Iceland so that if we get a period of anticyclonic gloom here, our power needs canbe supplemented by hydro from Norway, geothermal from Iceland, or solar from southern Europe. Weather conditions are not going to be identical across a region large enough to encompass all those countries. In addition, we need to implement storage facilities to get us at least partly through anti-solar/wind periods of weather.

We already do to a point. We currently have:
4GW to France
1GW to each Holland, Ireland and Belgium
1.4GW to each Norway and Denmark

I expect there are more planned as well. New storage facilities are also planned/being built, so we are getting there.

 

[JamesT]

What we might ultimately need if we are to completely transition to renewable energy is to stop being so insular (e.g. drop the exceptionalist attitude) and take on more of a cooperative attitude with our near neighbouring countries (OMG heaven forbid we should become less like America) . By that, I mean connect our power grid to Europe/Scandinavia/Iceland so that if we get a period of anticyclonic gloom here, our power needs canbe supplemented by hydro from Norway, geothermal from Iceland, or solar from southern Europe. Weather conditions are not going to be identical across a region large enough to encompass all those countries. In addition, we need to implement storage facilities to get us at least partly through anti-solar/wind periods of weather.

A Dunkelflaute across most of Northern Europe is not an uncommon occurrence. So most of our neighbours where we have connections to also having increased strain on their supplies can be expected. Europe is also not a single grid, there are similarly constrained connections between countries so you can’t assume that power can be transferred from a far off location.

It’s not a matter of being insular, running power cables to other countries is very expensive. The Viking Link to Denmark cost £1.7bn to provide 1.4GW. If you wanted to eliminate gas usage in peak demand scenarios you’re looking at perhaps 20GW.

 

[takno]

What we might ultimately need if we are to completely transition to renewable energy is to stop being so insular (e.g. drop the exceptionalist attitude) and take on more of a cooperative attitude with our near neighbouring countries (OMG heaven forbid we should become less like America) . By that, I mean connect our power grid to Europe/Scandinavia/Iceland so that if we get a period of anticyclonic gloom here, our power needs canbe supplemented by hydro from Norway, geothermal from Iceland, or solar from southern Europe. Weather conditions are not going to be identical across a region large enough to encompass all those countries. In addition, we need to implement storage facilities to get us at least partly through anti-solar/wind periods of weather.

Power prices were a significant feature of the last election in Norway. People are absolutely furious that their energy prices have in many cases quadrupled as a result of opening their grid to the wider European market. There's a risk that you end up with a grid which is much more delicate for both political and meteorological reasons, and a populace in the "baseload" markets who are angry enough to vote in extremist governments.

 

[Nottingham59]

Power prices were a significant feature of the last election in Norway. People are absolutely furious that their energy prices have in many cases quadrupled as a result of opening their grid to the wider European market. There's a risk that you end up with a grid which is much more delicate for both political and meteorological reasons, and a populace in the "baseload" markets who are angry enough to vote in extremist governments.

That's easy enough to fix by mandating that the net flow through any interconnector to Norway on average be zero. Every GWh imported from Norway must be matched by one GWh exported back. Such a regime would still work financially.

 

[HSTEd]

While I quite like this idea, I think with more modern condenser boiler designs you might end up just reducing the effectiveness of the condensate stage. I think you'd either need to be able to return the water to full flow temperature through electricity alone and prevent the boiler firing at all, or you'd need to integrate the immersion heating more deeply into the boiler controls.

I think it would still reduce the total boiler firing rate. I don't think the loss of efficiency from marginally warmer boiler return water would be too drastic, and the boiler should fire less if the immersion thermostat is set higher than the boilers circulating water thermostat.

But it's something that definitely needs testing.

Unfortunately time on the Salford energy house testing rig is about £2000 per day and the experiments take at least a week for a run!

 

[AndrewE]

Honestly, we should probably installed heating elements from immersion heaters in the gas boiler return lines of houses, so in times of surplus electricity production in winter, we can substitute it for gas.

Unfortunately, a trial on that costs way more than I can convince someone to give me! The pain of academia!

What about simple (remotely controlled/smart(?)) storage heaters? That way you can mop up the power even if the house thermostat isn't calling for heat. They shouldn't cost much (certainly not what is currently being asked for them) and require no plumbing at all...

 

[HSTEd]

What about simple (remotely controlled/smart(?)) storage heaters? That way you can mop up the power even if the house thermostat isn't calling for heat. They shouldn't cost much (certainly not what is currently being asked for them) and require no plumbing at all...

The glorious return of storage heaters is one of those things that I think will happen but people simply look at me strangely when I mention it.

Unfortunately, a lot of the decarbonisation tech decisions were made 30 years ago and there is little drive from the major government bodies to reexamine them in light of new circumstances.
For example that electricity is now often lower carbon than gas, and EV smart charging tariffs make electricity only marginally more expensive.

 

[jon0844]

The glorious return of storage heaters is one of those things that I think will happen but people simply look at me strangely when I mention it.

Unfortunately, a lot of the decarbonisation tech decisions were made 30 years ago and there is little drive from the major government bodies to reexamine them in light of new circumstances.
For example that electricity is now often lower carbon than gas, and EV smart charging tariffs make electricity only marginally more expensive.

With six hours of 7p electricity overnight on some tariffs, storage heaters could certainly gain appeal again - especially if you could get rid of gas and save on the standing charge for that.

 

[Bald Rick]

What we might ultimately need if we are to completely transition to renewable energy is to stop being so insular (e.g. drop the exceptionalist attitude) and take on more of a cooperative attitude with our near neighbouring countries (OMG heaven forbid we should become less like America) . By that, I mean connect our power grid to Europe/Scandinavia/Iceland so that if we get a period of anticyclonic gloom here, our power needs canbe supplemented by hydro from Norway, geothermal from Iceland, or solar from southern Europe. Weather conditions are not going to be identical across a region large enough to encompass all those countries. In addition, we need to implement storage facilities to get us at least partly through anti-solar/wind periods of weather.

We already do to a point. We currently have:
4GW to France
1GW to each Holland, Ireland and Belgium
1.4GW to each Norway and Denmark

I expect there are more planned as well. New storage facilities are also planned/being built, so we are getting there.

1.4GW with Germany under construction, plus almost another 5.5GW (total) approved across 4 links to France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. Plus more to Ireland, more internally to the UK (mostly north - south) and XLinks to Morrocco (3.6GW) if that ever happens.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Honestly, we should probably installed heating elements from immersion heaters in the gas boiler return lines of houses, so in times of surplus electricity production in winter, we can substitute it for gas.

Unfortunately, a trial on that costs way more than I can convince someone to give me! The pain of academia!

What happened to the plans to use hydrogen as standard in boilers?

 

[AndrewE]

What happened to the plans to use hydrogen as standard in boilers?

common sense/scientific advice/net carbon calculations (aka facts) prevailed...

 

[Bald Rick]

common sense/scientific advice/net carbon calculations (aka facts) prevailed...

aka the laws of Physics & Economics proved immutable!

 

[AlastairFraser]

common sense/scientific advice/net carbon calculations (aka facts) prevailed...

Although I'm not entirely convinced that putting all our eggs in the heat pump basket will prove entirely sensible.

 

[Bald Rick]

Although I'm not entirely convinced that putting all our eggs in the heat pump basket will prove entirely sensible.

Why not?

 

[AlastairFraser]

Why not?

Heat pumps are expensive and only useful in some climates.
Storage heaters (especially if installed in conjunction with a reasonably priced home battery solution) may provide a useful lower-cost alternative that could mop up spare electricity as suggested before.

 

[AndrewE]

Heat pumps are expensive and only useful in some climates.

rubbish! Scandinavia pretty well relies on them, I have contacts in N Scotland whose energy bills are currently 42p per day. Admittedly they have invested in triple glazing and (sometimes) run a WBS, but the heat pump does pretty well all they need.
p.s. maybe you should read https://energy-stats.uk/heat-pump-myths/ before dismissing them.

Storage heaters (especially if installed in conjunction with a reasonably priced home battery solution) may provide a useful lower-cost alternative that could mop up spare electricity as suggested before.

agreed. But resistive heating is quite primitive and exxpensive compared to the COP you get from a heat pump.