Reform UK discussion

[PGAT]

I am sure that there would quickly be a number of Conservative MPs, and possibly one or two Labour ones, who would feel that ‘for the good of the country and to reflect the wishes of the voters’ they would be prepared to join Reform. They would no doubt be willing to make further personal sacrifices and accept a post as Minister for British Bulldog Clips.

The party will likely have plenty of Conservative defections anyway

 

[35B]

There's a good summary of various seat projections on this Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...ted_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_projections (I would add the data inline

It seems to still be trending towards a Reform majority. I do wonder though, if Reform were 15 seats short, who would join them in a coalition? The DUP just to get them over the line? Even then that would only get them about half a dozen seats closer.

Trending based on polling nearly 4 years out, and with Reform benefiting from hypothetical questions and a lack of serious scrutiny.

 

[styles]

Trending based on polling nearly 4 years out, and with Reform benefiting from hypothetical questions and a lack of serious scrutiny.

Well yes obviously it's a long way away. It's a hypothetical scenario

 

[35B]

Well yes obviously it's a long way away. It's a hypothetical scenario

Indeed. And one where they can only benefit from the speculation. Personally, I regard Farage as being rather like Corbyn. And by 28-29, I rather hope we’ll be looking at the 2019 vintage, not the 2017.

 

[styles]

Indeed. And one where they can only benefit from the speculation.

I can't imagine this post on RailForums will swing many voters their way!

Personally, I regard Farage as being rather like Corbyn. And by 28-29, I rather hope we’ll be looking at the 2019 vintage, not the 2017.

Yeah I'm hoping for better results, but we've got the Scottish Parliament election next year to get through. They're not doing nearly as well, but I wouldn't get complacent.

 

[KevinBrum12]

Suck it up’: leaked video exposes bitter infighting at Reform UK’s flagship Kent council Exclusive: Footage reveals Kent leader berating councillors amid rows over budgets and bullying claims - from The Guardian

This is supposedly Reform's "flagship" council. With all this arguing worse than primary school kids on the bridge, it if is a flagship it is the Titanic.

 

[styles]

Suck it up’: leaked video exposes bitter infighting at Reform UK’s flagship Kent council Exclusive: Footage reveals Kent leader berating councillors amid rows over budgets and bullying claims - from The Guardian

This is supposedly Reform's "flagship" council. With all this arguing worse than primary school kids on the bridge, it if is a flagship it is the Titanic.

Why are people still doing these things over Zoom where people can easily make recordings? I remember my preferred political party having such scandals in internal meetings over a decade ago, but it didn't usually get further than the likes of LabourList or ConservativeHome, and there wasn't the dramatic video footage.

If you're going to do these meetings over Zoom, as leader you need tonbe on your best behaviour, and simply remove people if they are out of order.

Half the reason for internal party councillor meetings is to have these, let's say, lively debates in private, then when you go into the council meetings people just vote and maybe make a concise version of their views known on the public record, to keep public appearances up.

 

[Harpo]

Suck it up’: leaked video exposes bitter infighting at Reform UK’s flagship Kent council Exclusive: Footage reveals Kent leader berating councillors amid rows over budgets and bullying claims - from The Guardian

This is supposedly Reform's "flagship" council. With all this arguing worse than primary school kids on the bridge, it if is a flagship it is the Titanic.

The pratfuls available to a political party with hardly any experienced people.

 

[jon0844]

People who have no idea how to conduct their business aren't going to see a problem with the way they act if videos are shown, as they'll just spout things like 'freedom of speech' or 'telling it like it is'. And their base will be like 'haven't you got anything better to do?'.

Society is broken and we have a long way to go to fix it, and Reform are not the people who are going to do it IMHO. We'll just get one step closer to Idiocracy where nobody has any clue how to act responsibly and respectfully.

 

[Moonshot]

People who have no idea how to conduct their business aren't going to see a problem with the way they act if videos are shown, as they'll just spout things like 'freedom of speech' or 'telling it like it is'. And their base will be like 'haven't you got anything better to do?'.

Society is broken and we have a long way to go to fix it, and Reform are not the people who are going to do it IMHO. We'll just get one step closer to Idiocracy where nobody has any clue how to act responsibly and respectfully.

Unfortunately the voters will be deciding that Reform will be forming the next government....you will simply have to accept that whether you like it or not

 

[Bevan Price]

Vote Reform and you are liable to get a mini-Trump running the country. What a horrible thought.

 

[PGAT]

Unfortunately the voters will be deciding that Reform will be forming the next government....you will simply have to accept that whether you like it or not

The future is not set in stone

 

[AlterEgo]

Unfortunately the voters will be deciding that Reform will be forming the next government....you will simply have to accept that whether you like it or not

Tell me the lottery numbers for August 2029 as well.

 

[Tester]

Unfortunately the voters will be deciding that Reform will be forming the next government....you will simply have to accept that whether you like it or not

A week is a long time in politics

 

[brad465]

Four councillors have now been suspended in response to this leaked row:

Reform UK suspends four Kent councillors after video leak

The suspensions come after footage was leaked of a heated virtual meeting of Kent councillors.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reform UK has suspended four councillors following the leak of a video of a heated virtual council meeting.
The councillors sit on Kent County Council (KCC), which is one of ten councils run by Reform UK and is seen by the party as a test bed of its governing capabilities.
It comes after footage was leaked to The Guardian of KCC leader Linden Kemkaran swearing and telling party members to "suck it up" regarding some of her decisions.
When asked by BBC Radio Kent if the suspensions were linked to the video, she declined to comment.
"It is business as usual at Kent County Council," she said.
A party spokesperson said Paul Thomas, Oliver Bradshaw, Bill Barret and Maxine Fothergrill have had the whip suspended pending an investigation.
They said the suspensions were the result of "evidence" the councillors "brought the party into disrepute".
Ms Kemkaran was heard in the clip raising her voice at councillor Thomas, and threatening to mute him during an exchange on local government reorganisation.
Councillor Thomas said to the meeting: "Quite frankly, the question is…is that the right leader and the right cabinet?"

 

[35B]

Four councillors have now been suspended in response to this leaked row:

Reform UK suspends four Kent councillors after video leak

The suspensions come after footage was leaked of a heated virtual meeting of Kent councillors.

www.bbc.co.uk

Good to see the Fuhrerprinzip remains in existence...

 

[Purple Train]

Kemkaran has now asked all Reform Kent councillors to pledge allegiance to her. This is going well.
(Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8r0km0dgzno)

I've picked out the best bits (which is most of the article to be fair) as well as providing a quote.

The under-fire Reform UK leader of Kent County Council (KCC) has called on fellow councillors to back her in writing.

Advised by party headquarters to do so, councillor Linden Kemkaran sent a note calling on members to sign a statement in support of her leadership to "counter all the negativity", according to the Local Democracy Reporting Service.

It comes after a damaging clip of Kemkaran was leaked to The Guardian showing her shouting and swearing during a council meeting. The Liberal Democrat opposition at KCC called the letter an act of "desperation".

The statement councillors have been urged to sign says Kemkaran is the "best person for the job", who is leading with "courage, integrity and discipline".

It says that leading KCC - England's largest local authority - is an "almost impossible task for one person".

It adds: "But Linden rose to the challenge without hesitation. She has the opposition firmly on the run and under her guidance.

"Reform UK members are flourishing in their roles."

One Reform backbencher told the LDRS they felt they did not have much choice but to sign the letter, though they did not want to.

They said the move was an attempt by the party HQ to gauge how much support Kemkaran had.

The LDRS has reported Kemkaran could face a vote of no confidence in the coming weeks over the leaked video.

A Reform backbencher, who asked not to be named, has already begun seeking the required number of signatures to spark the possible dismissal, it added.

Reform UK has suspended four councillors after the leak, with Kemkaran branding whoever was behind it as "cowards" who had committed an act of "treachery".

Reform UK took control of KCC in May, wiping out a 30-year Tory majority by securing 57 of the 81 seats at County Hall.

Seven have either had the whip suspended or left the party since then.

Kemkaran has been approached for comment.

Where do we even start?

 

[BAFRA77]

"War is peace; freedom is slavery; ignorance is strength."

 

[OhNoAPacer]

All parties will have disputes and infighting, but most have the sense to do it without the rest of the world spectating.
In any case where there is a split it is down to serious disagreements such as Labour councillors leaving over Gaza.
The problem Reform have is that, whereas other parties have members who join knowing they have, at least broadly, a set of ideals and beliefs that align with those of the party they are joining. With Reform, apart from immigration, there isn't any real full set of ideals to rally to, meaning that disputes become all but inevitable.

 

[35B]

All parties will have disputes and infighting, but most have the sense to do it without the rest of the world spectating.
In any case where there is a split it is down to serious disagreements such as Labour councillors leaving over Gaza.
The problem Reform have is that, whereas other parties have members who join knowing they have, at least broadly, a set of ideals and beliefs that align with those of the party they are joining. With Reform, apart from immigration, there isn't any real full set of ideals to rally to, meaning that disputes become all but inevitable.

I think as important, they've not had the experience of working through this stuff as a group before, so not learned how to deal with pressure. That shows in the demands for loyalty - if someone needs to insist on loyalty, they've already lost it.

 

[DarloRich]

I see Farage is on PMQ "Strike". I do hope there was a properly constituted ballot and the requisite notice was given to the authorities. Assume the Free Speech Union will come out in sympathy.

 

[brad465]

I see Farage is on PMQ "Strike". I do hope there was a properly constituted ballot and the requisite notice was given to the authorities. Assume the Free Speech Union will come out in sympathy.

He decided to sit in the public gallery with his "man of the people" friend Arron Banks. It was almost certainly as a stunt as he must always have attention in his mind.

 

[Bantamzen]

I see Farage is on PMQ "Strike". I do hope there was a properly constituted ballot and the requisite notice was given to the authorities. Assume the Free Speech Union will come out in sympathy.

I can see why Farage likes Trump so much, they are very much alike in that they are just man babies, always crying that they get no attention whilst getting all the attention...

I'm sure this will go down well with the Farage cultists, I mean Reform hard core voters. They'll see this as him "sticking it to the man", and they will lap it up. It might even give them a little boost in the polls for a while. But away from the dummy spitting leader, Reform are starting to rattle themselves apart. As @OhNoAPacer eloquently puts it a few posts above, Reform are a one policy party. Once they have had to be dragged away from the coast with their boat seeking binoculars, they actually have had to start dealing with the boring, day to day stuff for which they have no cohesion, no single policies, with councillors more or less dragged from the streets with little political understanding. It's a straight up recipe for disaster. And that's what the public will increasingly see, Reform's rapid rise in local politics may actually be a blessing in disguise as people see them start to fail on the basics of running a council, instead of blaming immigration for literally everything wrong with the country.

Whilst the thought of a Farage government fills me with dread, there's a little dark part of me that would almost like to see it happen, if only to watch Farage do a Liz Truss, crashing his party into a wall, making himself so ridiculous looking that his political career would be over. But that's just the naughty bit of me, the rest wants Reform to destroy itself in the next few years, and seeing Farage do another runner like he did straight after the Brexit Referendum result. I'm sure Donny T, if he's still in power, would welcome the slimy git Farage back over to help with Trump's 3rd Term campaign, sorry I mean the Republican's 2028 campaign...

 

[BAFRA77]

Meanwhile in the Shires...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6750qjp9vo

Worcestershire County Council asks residents to consider 10% tax rise​

Residents across an entire county are being asked for their views on a potential council tax hike of up to 10% - as well as the prospect of millions of pounds in cuts.

Worcestershire County Council is currently consulting on the 2026/27 budget, with people invited to give feedback by 1 November, external.

In a 32-page document, it asks people for their opinions on a range of council tax options because, according to Rob Wharton cabinet member for finance, the council is in a "very, very challenging situation".

Opposition councillors have voiced concern over the suggestions accusing the Reform-led authority of seeking justification to "cut services to the bone".

Councillor Adam Kent, opposition Conservative group leader, said: "It would be absolutely nuts if council tax went to 10%."

Mr Kent blamed the government for not providing enough funding for key services and asked "Why should Worcestershire's residents be penalised?"

Labour councillor Richard Udall said: "I think they're looking for justification for a 'slash and burn' policy, so they can cut services to the bone.

"And the consequences will be severe."

 

[KevinBrum12]

The Worcestershire 10% rise sounds like it will end up in a battle with Westminster with capping on the agenda, but you can bet that the media will not lap it up and devote as many column inches to Rubbish Reform councils as they did to Loony Labour councils in the 1980's.

 

[styles]

Well at least they didn't win the Caerphilly by election.

Plaid 47.4%
Reform 36%
Labour 11%

Devastating for Labour but it at least shows that there are alternatives to Labour/Tories which aren't Reform and that with enough effort, they can pull through.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Here’s the thing. 58.4% of the vote was for the two main left of centre parties. In the 2024 general election those two parties between them got 59.2% of the vote, ie it’s barely changed.

There has been a Labour to Plaid swing, and a Tory to Reform swing.

There has not been a left of centre to right of centre swing

 

[TravelDream]

Here’s the thing. 58.4% of the vote was for the two main left of centre parties. In the 2024 general election those two parties between them got 59.2% of the vote, ie it’s barely changed.

There has been a Labour to Plaid swing, and a Tory to Reform swing.

There has not been a left of centre to right of centre swing

That's a poor take.

There was a Survation poll here which basically showed Labour's vote split in three between the three parties.
Plaid was also projected to take 20% of the Tory vote in that poll.

The truth is Reform have the ability to take what might be considered 'left of centre' voters off other parties and get them voting Reform.

I'd be intrigued by the number of Tory and the number of strongly unionist parties who held their breath and voted Plaid.

On the result there, it's actually not too bad for Reform, but they have been briefing the media they would win and obviously fell well short. There's also the winning thing which is super important. Look at Runcorn where they squeaked past Labour but got incredibly positive coverage out of it.

Narrative is what matters so in Caerphilly what should be a positive turns into a negative.

 

[PGAT]

That's a poor take.

There was a Survation poll here which basically showed Labour's vote split in three between the three parties.
Plaid was also projected to take 20% of the Tory vote in that poll.

The truth is Reform have the ability to take what might be considered 'left of centre' voters off other parties and get them voting Reform.

I'd be intrigued by the number of Tory and the number of strongly unionist parties who held their breath and voted Plaid.

On the result there, it's actually not too bad for Reform, but they have been briefing the media they would win and obviously fell well short. There's also the winning thing which is super important. Look at Runcorn where they squeaked past Labour but got incredibly positive coverage out of it.

Narrative is what matters so in Caerphilly what should be a positive turns into a negative.

Why is it a poor take? Clearly what people actually voted for matters more than a random Survation poll which clearly overestimated the support of Reform

 

[Krokodil]

Why is it a poor take? Clearly what people actually voted for matters more than a random Survation poll which clearly overestimated the support of Reform

But when you vote in an election you aren't recording your past vote as you do so. So no definitive conclusion about which voters switched to which party can be drawn.