The future of the Heathrow Express

[Royston Vasey]

I used Heathrow Express on Sunday morning in preference to the Elizabeth Line, which I almost always do as a business traveller. It was almost full in the rear 4 and busy in the front 4. It offers capacity, speed, better frequency to T5, toilets, luggage racks, comfortable seat layouts, a far better ambience in standard, a First Class, and doesn't grind through the local stations of outer West London.

There is little that I would describe as pleasant about getting the packed Elizabeth Line, nor well suited to an airport service, particularly if you miss the half hourly service to T5 and have to change at Heathrow Central. HEX also acts as the T3-T5 connection/transfer in that situation and mine actually got much busier at T3.

If you take out HEX, you'd have to double the EL service to T5, to absorb all of that demand; half hourly or a change to T5 isn't really good enough. And are there paths for that? Is there stock for that? Is there stock to use on alternative uses for the paths you create?

It may be one of the hobby horses of posters on this forum, but still carries a million passengers a quarter, 10,000 a day. Personally I think it serves its purpose and warrants its place, and does so without subsidy.

Suggesting binning it purely for some unspecified degree of "resilience" for an unreliable regional and intercity service isn’t really a justification. Additional intercity paths might be some justification, but when GWR and Hitachi still frequently put out 5 car trains on on intercity routes, giving them more paths isn't the answer.

If HEX was canned, those 387s might be able to be used on more Cardiffs to release 80x to run these new IC paths (they can't go to Bristol or Oxford or Exeter) but would those passengers (or the Welsh Govt) be happy with the downgrade and would they carry an additional 10,000 people a day?

 

[Djgr]

It might be of interest that, compared with previous quarters, the latest (Q4) figure for HEx was actually up on previous years, which may suggest that the clear decline we've seen in the last couple of years has been halted. However, one swallow doesn't make a summer, so I await the Q1 figures with interest (which frustratingly are around 6 weeks later than usually published, so not due until the end of October).

View attachment 189363

Of course this graph is for passenger numbers rather than revenue, which may or may not be following the same trend.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Sep 2025 ==

Suggesting binning it purely for some unspecified degree of "resilience" for an unreliable regional and intercity service isn’t really a jusjustification.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that.

What is being suggested is IF the current decline in passengers continues there surely comes a point where the current service will not make sense. This is surely true for all rail services.

Even if the HEX paths cannot be used in the short term (and I cannot believe that this MUST be true for all eternity) there would still be the short term benefit of less pressure on the overloaded infrastructure west of Paddington.

 

[quantinghome]

It may be one of the hobby horses of posters this forum, but still carries a million passengers a quarter, 10,000 a day. Personally I think it serves its purpose and warrants its place, and does so without subsidy.

Suggesting binning it purely for some unspecified degree of "resilience" for an unreliable regional and intercity service isn’t really a justification.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that.

What is being suggested is IF the current decline in passengers continues there surely comes a point where the current service will not make sense. This is surely true for all rail services.

Even if the HEX paths cannot be used in the short term (and I cannot believe that this MUST be true for all eternity) there would still be the short term benefit of less pressure on the overloaded infrastructure west of Paddington.

As @Royston Vasey points out, HEx is a commercially-run service. Its continued existence will not depend on arguments over whether it serves a purpose, having a place, or whatever, but whether it returns a profit. If it can no longer do that, then HAL will have to consider whether to subsidise it or let it go. If the latter, than GBR or TfL will have to decide if they think it's worth subsidising.

No doubt HEx attracts a number of passengers willing to pay for a premium service, but clearly their price is set to remain competitive with EL, and they have had to reduce the quality of trains and other costs to avoid going into the red. As @Djgr points out, it won't take much more of a dip for profits to be wiped out.

 

[Bald Rick]

But to be more specific: the existing 6tph EL from Heathrow probably couldn't accommodate the HEx passengers without an increase in capacity. Especially as the existing service would also have to accommodate the growth from the local stations such as Ealing Broadway. I'm not sure how much more capacity there is available on the slows between Paddington and Airport Junction.

In my view ot could. I am by no means a regular traveller on the EL from Paddington to Heathrow, but when I do (various times of day/week/year) there is more than enough space to accommodate an extra 60 passengers per EL train to Heathrow west of Paddington, which is what 4m passengers per year is. Even allowing for variances in Heathrow demand throughout the day/week/year, I’d say that the EL has capacity almost all the time.

If you take out HEX, you'd have to double the EL service to T5, to absorb all of that demand; half hourly or a change to T5 isn't really good enough. And are there paths for that? Is there stock for that?

Yes, if HEX isnt there, there are - obviously - 4 spare paths from Airport Jn to T5. And yes there is stock - it currently goes to T4, and there’s 10 more EL trains coming along that TfL have yet to announce plans for.

 

[Royston Vasey]

I think HAL would still want to operate it even if on paper it lost quite a lot money on a standalone basis, because it drives passengers to the airport, which is growing, particularly premium passengers who spend money in the terminals and whose airlines pay HAL for fast track security, lounges etc. Long before this, they'll increase the fees they charge airlines or the fares they charge the passengers.

I think they would only want to stop doing so if it was practically empty, which I don't foresee ever being the case.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I think HAL would still want to operate it even if on paper it lost quite a lot money on a standalone basis, because it drives passengers to the airport

It is also on the airport's asset register, which drives the fees that the airport can charge to the airlines.

It's also worth pointing out that HEx pays around £14m a year to Heathrow Airport in track access charges, so even a paper loss wouldn't actually be a loss.

 

[The exile]

Munich S-Bahn runs on 20 minute intervals
Believe Stuttgart and Frankfurt are 30 minutes

A quarter of a century ago (horrors!) when I lived over there, the VRR used a 20-minute Takt. Was about right - even in peak hours- until you got to the evenings/ Sundays where cost-cutting service thinning meant 20/40. Mind you - the insistence on a central meeting point for evening teams meant on shared routes that 2 or 3 trams would follow each other on an oh,so customer-friendly 1/29 basis!
Gone wildly OT - apologies!

 

[Djgr]

It is also on the airport's asset register, which drives the fees that the airport can charge to the airlines.

It's also worth pointing out that HEx pays around £14m a year to Heathrow Airport in track access charges, so even a paper loss wouldn't actually be a loss.

Presumably Heathrow Airport could transfer those track access charges to an expanded Elizabeth line service to the airport?

And so the current charges to HEx represent the opportunity cost of not doing so and therefore have some validity?

 

[cle]

GWR and Hitachi still frequently put out 5 car trains on on intercity routes, giving them more paths isn't the answer.

This is a fair point, and a 387 semi-fast service to Cardiff or another to Newbury of 8-12 cars would carry more folks, if pathable. And indeed, the Cardiff could do things like remove faster calls from Didcot or Swindon, or add this future Cardiff East - or a Patchway call even!

In my view ot could. I am by no means a regular traveller on the EL from Paddington to Heathrow, but when I do (various times of day/week/year) there is more than enough space to accommodate an extra 60 passengers per EL train to Heathrow west of Paddington, which is what 4m passengers per year is. Even allowing for variances in Heathrow demand throughout the day/week/year, I’d say that the EL has capacity almost all the time.

One could argue it is also more spread out, ie a higher proportion in off peak. Indeed I would say many avoid the morning peak by train to Heathrow (which would be counter-flow in the western section, notably - but people with very early flights take cabs) - I think it could easily handle it.

PM peak is probably where you might see the most stress testing with non-airport traffic, but it's still ok, and expected. And the EL is long -a Heathrow-Bond St journey is highly additive in terms of overall usage to a Bond St-Stratford one.

 

[Brubulus]

I've had a look, and a reduction in HeX to 2tph would enable 2 more fast paths each hour from Paddington. Hex is best as a 2tph service, since at that frequency, it effectively doesn't use any capacity due to the presence of Dolphin Junction.

 

[RailWonderer]

I used Heathrow Express on Sunday morning in preference to the Elizabeth Line, which I almost always do as a business traveller. It was almost full in the rear 4 and busy in the front 4. It offers capacity, speed, better frequency to T5, toilets, luggage racks, comfortable seat layouts, a far better ambience in standard, a First Class, and doesn't grind through the local stations of outer West London.

There is little that I would describe as pleasant about getting the packed Elizabeth Line, nor well suited to an airport service, particularly if you miss the half hourly service to T5 and have to change at Heathrow Central. HEX also acts as the T3-T5 connection/transfer in that situation and mine actually got much busier at T3.

If you take out HEX, you'd have to double the EL service to T5, to absorb all of that demand; half hourly or a change to T5 isn't really good enough. And are there paths for that? Is there stock for that? Is there stock to use on alternative uses for the paths you create?

It may be one of the hobby horses of posters on this forum, but still carries a million passengers a quarter, 10,000 a day. Personally I think it serves its purpose and warrants its place, and does so without subsidy.

Suggesting binning it purely for some unspecified degree of "resilience" for an unreliable regional and intercity service isn’t really a justification. Additional intercity paths might be some justification, but when GWR and Hitachi still frequently put out 5 car trains on on intercity routes, giving them more paths isn't the answer.

If HEX was canned, those 387s might be able to be used on more Cardiffs to release 80x to run these new IC paths (they can't go to Bristol or Oxford or Exeter) but would those passengers (or the Welsh Govt) be happy with the downgrade and would they carry an additional 10,000 people a day?

Better than I could have put it.

I use the HeX a few times a year and book in advance and combined with my south east station - London zones 1-2 ticket, it’s the same price as taking the Elizabeth line on the day. I enjoy the non stop ride and don’t want to be grinding through Southall, Ealing, OOC when it opens and stopping everywhere after coming off a flight, I just want to get home as soon as possible. I like the predictable frequency and speed and half the time you still have to change as Paddington anyway as half of EL services terminate there or go to Reading or Maidenhead.

I would say GWR should not be using commuter trains on IC services but given the IETs provide no intercity levels of comfort, using 387s apart from a lack of a trolley isn’t such a bad thing.

 

[cle]

For all that best practice is probably as many tph of Crossrail and one-seat rides, turn up and go.... I do admit that I tend to go down there (at T2/3) and just get on the first train. Depends on the destination and how to get there from Paddington.

If it's a HEx waiting, I'll jump on and expense it. Crossrail, I don't really bother.

Inbound, again depends on the origin but I've always liked a cab to Heathrow/HEx combo.

My next London trip (I live abroad now) I'm staying at the Hoxton, so TCR is very handy.

 

[scarby]

Interesting to see the current issue of Modern Railways saying that this should be canned.

This is in line with the majority of discussion that I have recently seen within these Forums (although there were also some rogue views expressed).

To be replaced with what?

The Heathrow Express takes 20 minutes to Paddington and has luggage provision. (Plus, although granted this is a 'nice to have', better comfort, facilities for toilet/quick freshen up.)

The Elizabeth Line takes 33 minutes to Paddington and has no luggage provision.

 

[The exile]

To be replaced with what?

The Heathrow Express takes 20 minutes to Paddington

The Elizabeth Line takes 33 minutes to Paddington

That time differential is only relevant to those for whom Paddington is a key part of their journey (either as a destination or place to jump into a black cab etc). For anyone heading virtually anywhere else in London (I’m sure there are exceptions) the through connections on the Elizabeth line will gain those 13 minutes back.

 

[quantinghome]

The Heathrow Express takes 20 minutes to Paddington and has luggage provision. (Plus, although granted this is a 'nice to have', better comfort, facilities for toilet/quick freshen up.)

The Elizabeth Line takes 33 minutes to Paddington and has no luggage provision.

You have correctly identified that HEx is the best option for passengers whose journeys begin or end at Paddington. For those passengers who may want to go somewhere else in London other than Paddington (crazy, I know...), EL is much more convenient. If you have luggage, the primary concern is how many times you have to interchange, not whether there are luggage racks on the train.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You have correctly identified that HEx is the best option for passengers whose journeys begin or end at Paddington. For those passengers who may want to go somewhere else in London other than Paddington (crazy, I know...), EL is much more convenient. If you have luggage, the primary concern is how many times you have to interchange, not whether there are luggage racks on the train.

The majority of air passengers these days are travelling with one wheeled case per person, usually a hand luggage sized one but sometimes a bigger one. They just put them by their knees on Lizzie trains in the side facing seats. It does make it harder to move through the train, but otherwise it's fine.

If you've got 4 to yourself what you want is a taxi, not a train of any kind.

It's not the same problem as cruise passengers (who tend to have far more luggage) on SWR 444s.

 

[Djgr]

Better than I could have put it.

I use the HeX a few times a year and book in advance and combined with my south east station - London zones 1-2 ticket, it’s the same price as taking the Elizabeth line on the day. I enjoy the non stop ride and don’t want to be grinding through Southall, Ealing, OOC when it opens and stopping everywhere after coming off a flight, I just want to get home as soon as possible. I like the predictable frequency and speed and half the time you still have to change as Paddington anyway as half of EL services terminate there or go to Reading or Maidenhead.

I would say GWR should not be using commuter trains on IC services but given the IETs provide no intercity levels of comfort, using 387s apart from a lack of a trolley isn’t such a bad thing.

The problem is that you are using your own preferences (a statistical sample of two) to make assumptions about how the passengers to and from Heathrow wish to journey.

Presumably if they all thought the same way as you HEx wouldn't have (to date) lost a third of its customers?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Oct 2025 ==

To be replaced with what?

The Heathrow Express takes 20 minutes to Paddington and has luggage provision. (Plus, although granted this is a 'nice to have', better comfort, facilities for toilet/quick freshen up.)

The Elizabeth Line takes 33 minutes to Paddington and has no luggage provision.

Perhaps read the article in Modern Railways?

 

[WAO]

Just virtual crayoning - why not have a prestige, first class only (Pullman?) HEX with bag drop at Paddington for those checked in on line, using the fast (and shorter) class 810 cars, saving paths on the mains.

Perhaps a more sedate version at Victoria for Gatwick. Have to transfer the Luggage securely to the airport system, though.

Premium airline fares could include the tickets.

Not that I would use it - the bus to Feltham or Slough is fine for me!

WAO

 

[quantinghome]

Just virtual crayoning - why not have a prestige, first class only (Pullman?) HEX with bag drop at Paddington for those checked in on line, using the fast (and shorter) class 810 cars, saving paths on the mains.

Perhaps a more sedate version at Victoria for Gatwick. Have to transfer the Luggage securely to the airport system, though.

Premium airline fares could include the tickets.

Not that I would use it - the bus to Feltham or Slough is fine for me!

WAO

The competitive pressures HEx is under have forced it in the other direction.

They operated a check-in and bag drop service until 2003, but it was ditched due to high cost and low demand.

Similarly, HEx have moved from running their own high-spec trains in-house to outsourcing the service to GWR with a variant of GWR's standard EMU.

All this indicate that any demand that exists for a prestige service is insufficient to cover its costs.

 

[TheGrew]

For me, I think HEX having a future is probably more to do with Western Access in some form or other. I agree with the sentiment others have expressed around Paddington not being a hugely useful start point for a lot of London based traffic however if HEX got exclusive access to the west, be it Reading or Woking, or somewhere else, I could see passenger figures climb again.

This being said, though, if you were going to add western access to the GWML near Iver I can imagine wanting to send almost everything on the slow line, including EL via Heathrow to end up in a situation more like Schipol

 

[Zomboid]

The kind of people who could pay for that sort of premium service are probably arriving at the airport by taxi/ limousine/ in their Rolls Royces.

 

[JonathanH]

Similarly, HEx have moved from running their own high-spec trains in-house to outsourcing the service to GWR with a variant of GWR's standard EMU.

All this indicate that any demand that exists for a prestige service is insufficient to cover its costs.

What was the alternative course of action? If the 332s were worn out needing overhaul, a new depot needed to be built because of HS2, and the 387s were surplus, then it seems a sensible course of action to use those 387s allocated to Reading.

The 387s got an interior upgrade as part of the exercise. Just because they don't have a pointy nose doesn't mean they aren't appropriate.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The 387s got an interior upgrade as part of the exercise.

A very light one. Ironing boards in Standard and 2+1 Fainsa Sophias in First are not a premium interior compared to what went before; 332 Standard was almost as good as 387 1st and 332 1st was something really special. Slightly better than GatEx to be fair, but that's now rather a sham. Plus level boarding has been lost.

 

[quantinghome]

What was the alternative course of action? If the 332s were worn out needing overhaul, a new depot needed to be built because of HS2, and the 387s were surplus, then it seems a sensible course of action to use those 387s allocated to Reading.

The 387s got an interior upgrade as part of the exercise. Just because they don't have a pointy nose doesn't mean they aren't appropriate.

You misunderstand my meaning. I think they're fine, although obviously not as 'premium' as the 332s were in their heyday.

I was responding to the suggestion that HEx should be putting on a 'prestige' service. This would require a new mini-fleet rather than using surplus stock, and possibly a new depot. Evidently, HEx have decided instead on a more pragmatic option which is a reflection of the demand and competition of the market they are working in.

 

[NCT]

The problem is that you are using your own preferences (a statistical sample of two) to make assumptions about how the passengers to and from Heathrow wish to journey.

Presumably if they all thought the same way as you HEx wouldn't have (to date) lost a third of its customers?

You can interpret it the other way as despite competition from Crossrail HEx has retained two thirds of its customers. If the trend is stabalised then HEx will remain in the green, and I don't see HAL giving up the access rights. In the event of HAL not giving up access rights, will the government realistically want to pick a fight with HAL?

Even if HEx demand shrinks a little further I imagine HAL will want to keep the paths in anticipation of HS2 and R3 traffic, and HAL will be able to withstand a small number of years of red on HEx.

 

[Djgr]

You can interpret it the other way as despite competition from Crossrail HEx has retained two thirds of its customers. If the trend is stabalised then HEx will remain in the green, and I don't see HAL giving up the access rights. In the event of HAL not giving up access rights, will the government realistically want to pick a fight with HAL?

Even if HEx demand shrinks a little further I imagine HAL will want to keep the paths in anticipation of HS2 and R3 traffic, and HAL will be able to withstand a small number of years of red on HEx.

Just out of curiosity, why wouldn't the government pick a flight with HAL?

 

[cle]

For me, I think HEX having a future is probably more to do with Western Access in some form or other. I agree with the sentiment others have expressed around Paddington not being a hugely useful start point for a lot of London based traffic however if HEX got exclusive access to the west, be it Reading or Woking, or somewhere else, I could see passenger figures climb again.

This being said, though, if you were going to add western access to the GWML near Iver I can imagine wanting to send almost everything on the slow line, including EL via Heathrow to end up in a situation more like Schipol

This is a fair point.

You’d want the fast path for either re-entering the GWML (time penalty vs an EL stopping service might be less critical to eg Slough - still slower via LHR but maybe a bit less if non stop after) - or for a Southern access service to Staines or beyond. But as a shuttle in isolation and without any onward plans, it’s a bit wasteful.

Maybe switch to 2tph and cover T4 only. And return two paths to the fast lines to Reading.

 

[Snow1964]

You can interpret it the other way as despite competition from Crossrail HEx has retained two thirds of its customers. If the trend is stabalised then HEx will remain in the green, and I don't see HAL giving up the access rights. In the event of HAL not giving up access rights, will the government realistically want to pick a fight with HAL?

Even if HEx demand shrinks a little further I imagine HAL will want to keep the paths in anticipation of HS2 and R3 traffic, and HAL will be able to withstand a small number of years of red on HEx.

Hasn't HEX had its access rights extended to 2027

I wasn't aware there was any right to automatic renewal/extension, so don't need to pick a fight, just end them at expiry.

Access rights are not issued by the Government, they are issued by ORR, and ORR describes itself as (quoting from its website)

We are an independent statutory body, with powers vested by Parliament in our governing board, which sets our strategy and oversees its delivery.

 

[NCT]

Hasn't HEX had its access rights extended to 2027

I wasn't aware there was any right to automatic renewal/extension, so don't need to pick a fight, just end them at expiry.

Access rights are not issued by the Government, they are issued by ORR, and ORR describes itself as (quoting from its website)

HEx would need to request renewal, but they'd be renewing as the incumbent (I'm not close to the legalese, my understanding is essentially 'incumbents have rights'). If DfT wants the same paths and HEx wants to renew, then DfT would be picking a fight. It would trigger, for example, declaration of Congested Infrastructure and you'd have to go through decision criteria or even to dispute.

My understanding is also that (happy to be proven wrong) HEx access rights have an elevated level of protection which goes back to the legislation for the construction of the Heathrow link itself.

 

[HSTEd]

HEx isn't really going to be a particularly attractive product for HS2 passengers. The journey time advantage over Crossrail will be significantly weaker than it is now, and there will be no station convenience advantage as everyone at Old Oak will be on the same concourse.

If HAL are expecting HS2 to bail them out, I think they will be disappointed.