The future of the Heathrow Express

[Djgr]

Fundamentally I don't see how the government's vision of a "unified, simplified railway" ties in with a whole load of HEx touts in Heathrow's arrival halls.

 

[NCT]

Fundamentally I don't see how the government's vision of a "unified, simplified railway" ties in with a whole load of HEx touts in Heathrow's arrival halls.

There will always be aspects of the railway outside of the government's direct control.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Fundamentally I don't see how the government's vision of a "unified, simplified railway" ties in with a whole load of HEx touts in Heathrow's arrival halls.

Another irony in this thread.

So, as part of this unified and simplified Great British Railways, all rail services between GB’s largest airport and its capital city will be run by, err, an organisation that isn’t going to be part of GBR (i.e. Transport for London). This will continue to provide no toilets, no first class, no proper luggage space, no GBR fares control and operate a more crowded and slower service than currently available, as a choice (by HEx).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Another irony in this thread.

So, as part of this unified and simplified Great British Railways, all rail services between GB’s largest airport and its capital city will be run by, err, an organisation that isn’t going to be part of GBR (i.e. Transport for London). This will continue to provide no toilets, no first class, no proper luggage space, no GBR fares control and operate a more crowded and slower service than currently available, as a choice (by HEx).

It's pretty normal the world over for the airport to be connected to the city by an underground service or similar operated or managed by the city. Why should GBR have anything to do with a London "domestic" transport service running wholly within Greater London?

 

[MrJeeves]

You have correctly identified that HEx is the best option for passengers whose journeys begin or end at Paddington. For those passengers who may want to go somewhere else in London other than Paddington (crazy, I know...), EL is much more convenient. If you have luggage, the primary concern is how many times you have to interchange, not whether there are luggage racks on the train.

This is exactly why I use EL. I take Thameslink as far as Farringdon, then change only once to get to Heathrow. An extra change at Paddington onto HX would slow down my journey to Heathrow without considering things like luggage.

But there are still people where HX is more convenient (particularly so if you are tube-ing from, say Victoria or Euston maybe).

 

[quantinghome]

Another irony in this thread.

So, as part of this unified and simplified Great British Railways, all rail services between GB’s largest airport and its capital city will be run by, err, an organisation that isn’t going to be part of GBR (i.e. Transport for London).

1. So what? As others have said, this happens all over the place.
2. We don't know how GBR will be structured. For all we know GBR may have its regional services commissioned by devolved transport authorities, such as TfL.

 

[Dr Hoo]

1. So what? As others have said, this happens all over the place.
2. We don't know how GBR will be structured. For all we know GBR may have its regional services commissioned by devolved transport authorities, such as TfL.

Fair enough, but might be a good idea to soft pedal on the unified slogan until the answer emerges.

Schrödinger’s GBR: both unified and devolved at the same time.

We’ve been here before with sectors and PTEs and the shadows of that era are still with us to some degree.

 

[NCT]

To this day GBR still raises more questions than answers, and I'll leave it there.

It's also quite common for global hub airports to be linked with a premium express on top of the ordinary metro service. I don't pretend to fully understand this market but it seems there is a segment of aviation market that rail enthusiasts tend to have a blind spot for. Paris is building the CDG Express, which on the face of it doesn't make sense as a rail service. I say there is sufficient empirical evidence to say there is a market for a yield-over-volume premium airport express service for the small segment of market that's 'turn left and taxi' that'll pay sufficient £££s, and I looks to me like Heathrow isn't about to throw that market under the bus.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Schrödinger’s GBR: both unified and devolved at the same time.

I'd suggest looking at other European countries here. It is often the case that devolved regions contract the state railway to operate services for them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Oct 2025 ==

I looks to me like Heathrow isn't about to throw that market under the bus.

And that's up to them. They can subsidise it if they want (just as I could decide to personally tender a bus service if I wanted), but it won't be a cash cow.

 

[NCT]

And that's up to them. They can subsidise it if they want (just as I could decide to personally tender a bus service if I wanted), but it won't be a cash cow.

Exactly. And (unless thing change very dramatically) not up the strong arm of the state.

 

[Olivine]

Is there a not insignificant amount that TFL pay to use their tunnels?

We should really take this into in any assessment of the future plans because HAL do own them after BR pulled the funding for them.

 

[JonathanH]

I'd suggest looking at other European countries here. It is often the case that devolved regions contract the state railway to operate services for them.

In time that is possible to happen here but clearly the contracts can't just be ripped up, and GBR isn't yet available to sign contracts with.

 

[quantinghome]

Exactly. And (unless thing change very dramatically) not up the strong arm of the state.

The what?

I don't think anyone is suggesting HEx should be forced off the railway, just that HEx may decide it's not worth running in the future, given the trend in its profitability.

 

[NCT]

The what?

I don't think anyone is suggesting HEx should be forced off the railway, just that HEx may decide it's not worth running in the future, given the trend in its profitability.

I think the 'GBR should ...' brigade very much want to force HEx off the railway.

As to HAL voluntarily withdrawing HEx - I think that's a veeeeeeery long way off.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As to HAL voluntarily withdrawing HEx - I think that's a veeeeeeery long way off.

I think they might if it starts losing money. I'm not sure there will be a desire to subsidise it, while public subsidy for it would be a waste of money.

 

[NCT]

Even if HEx turns a small loss HAL could still see it as a small investment for Heathrow's overall profitability. And I think even the possibility of HEx losing money is relatively remote.

 

[quantinghome]

I think the 'GBR should ...' brigade very much want to force HEx off the railway.

As to HAL voluntarily withdrawing HEx - I think that's a veeeeeeery long way off.

Well both are speculation TBH. Given flat or dropping fare box and increasing operation costs, HEx is unlikely to remain profitable. Why are you so confident that HAL would subsidise HEx long term?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Even if HEx turns a small loss HAL could still see it as a small investment for Heathrow's overall profitability. And I think even the possibility of HEx losing money is relatively remote.

I think looking at the figures above that it turning a loss within 5 years is pretty much a certainty.

 

[Snow1964]

Even if HEx turns a small loss HAL could still see it as a small investment for Heathrow's overall profitability. And I think even the possibility of HEx losing money is relatively remote.

Heathrow probably need HEX to stay alive until they have received full planning permission for the airport expansion.
Travel to & from the airport without adding to congestion on local roads will almost certainly be a requirement as part of hundreds of pages of planning back up documentation.

 

[NCT]

Heathrow probably need HEX to stay alive until they have received full planning permission for the airport expansion.
Travel to & from the airport without adding to congestion on local roads will almost certainly be a requirement as part of hundreds of pages of planning back up documentation.

Exactly.

 

[sh24]

The HEX has a value when the EL is/has had a meltdown. Wait 15mins for a jampacked 345 that stops on the way to LHR or pay an extra tenner and get there faster and in peace and quiet.

 

[Djgr]

I think looking at the figures above that it turning a loss within 5 years is pretty much a certainty.

Yes. Look at the figures above that somebody had kindly sourced. They provide excellent context for the discussion.

 

[NCT]

Looking at the figures, a >7% profit margin is what a lot of businesses would kill for. My hunch is that numbers are stabilising.

In the context of the DCO, even if there are genuine technical arguments for Crossrail being sufficient, a headline narrative of London - Heathrow trains reducing from 10tph to 6tph (40% reduction) just isn't going to fly. The stake is far greater than any potential small loss HEx might run up.

The kind of people who could pay for that sort of premium service are probably arriving at the airport by taxi/ limousine/ in their Rolls Royces.

I'd say HEx-ing it to Paddington is more glamourous than car-ing it all the way on the M4.

HEx isn't really going to be a particularly attractive product for HS2 passengers. The journey time advantage over Crossrail will be significantly weaker than it is now, and there will be no station convenience advantage as everyone at Old Oak will be on the same concourse.

If HAL are expecting HS2 to bail them out, I think they will be disappointed.

Au Contraire. At Paddington Crossrail has the advantage of coming from the heart of the City and West End. That advantage is irrelevant for HS2 - Heathrow passengers. At OOC HEx's journey time and ambience advantages over Crossrail are pure and there to be monetised.

Put it that way - for a Manchester - Heathrow journey, a 'via HEx' ticket can be priced at as little as £2 more than 'not via HEx' and I'd imagine 'via HEx' to have near 100% market share (between those two markets). 'via HEx only' would take the revenue out of ORCATS (vis-a-vis Crossrail). This is pure revenue for HEx as accommodating those passengers would incur no marginal operating cost at all.

 

[Brubulus]

Do Slough and Maidenhead deserve 4tph fast? If the answer to that is, or could be, yes there's no issue with running HEX at 4tph as Dolphin Junction slows down trains such that it isn't an issue. Even then, with the current timetable, it's unclear if the line is truly at capacity once a standardised stopping pattern is implemented, even at peak times.

 

[JN114]

Been done so many times…

Crossrail isn’t some surprise detractor that has suddenly sprung onto the market.

It has been being planned, built and now operating for the vast majority of HEx’s existence.

Heathrow Airport knew it was coming; and had a fairly good idea of the impact it would have on their passenger numbers and revenues.

Despite that - and the forecasts for passenger numbers and revenue were significantly WORSE for HEx than have transpired - Heathrow Airport repeatedly haven’t availed themselves of the perfect break opportunities at the ends of their track access agreements to wind up. Indeed they entered into a costly tie up with GWR that has committed them to pay GWR beyond even their current track access agreement - and long into the Crossrail era.

Are we so patronising of the people that have profitably run HEx for nearly 30 years that we don’t think they’ve already thought of all these arguments? That they’re bravely ploughing on like the black knight in Monty Python?

Or is it more likely, as some posters have pointed out already - that Heathrow Airport know EXACTLY what they’re doing; and see the value in the operation beyond what simplistic passenger numbers and revenues shows to the armchair experts and journalists?

 

[quantinghome]

Or is it more likely, as some posters have pointed out already - that Heathrow Airport know EXACTLY what they’re doing; and see the value in the operation beyond what simplistic passenger numbers and revenues shows to the armchair experts and journalists?

We know that its profits have declined significantly, and will move into loss on current trends. HAL may decide to continue running it in the long term by subsidising it. They may not. Who knows? It's speculation either way.

 

[Djgr]

We know that its profits have declined significantly, and will move into loss on current trends. HAL may decide to continue running it in the long term by subsidising it. They may not. Who knows? It's speculation either way.

Well, to be fair this thread is in the Speculative Discussion section.

 

[WAO]

The kind of people who could pay for that sort of premium service are probably arriving at the airport by taxi/ limousine/ in their Rolls Royces.

...but they still have to use the Cromwell Road, the Hammersmith Flyover and the M4.

Hence the railway's permanent advantage - just add soft, creamy leather and walnut!

WAO

 

[NCT]

From a purely timetabling perspective - looking at the Dec 25 timetable, the 'HEx services only use the Slough gap' argument seems to have disappeared. The Oxfords no longer call at Slough, and Slough's GW services seem to be exclusively the Didcot Parkway Dolphin Junction crossers. In the peaks Sloughs get no GW at all - the Didcots are promoted from Class 2 to Class 1 and are first stop Maidenhead.

I do wonder whether a Main - Relief path swap *could* be possible.

Have 4tph 'first stop Slough' crossing at Dolphin Junction in parallel moves. These effectively take the HEx paths east of Airport Junction. This means 4tph Crossrail Readings / Maidenheads can be repurposed to become Heathrow trains and call at all stops on the Relief Lines. This gives Heathrow 8-10tph consistent stopping pattern, and inner Relief Line stations get a metro service. Slough and outwards are back to being served by fast mainline trains with toilets.

The weak link in this is Dolphin Junction - having 4tph crossing all day (plus likely another 2tph Slough West crossers but peak only) might just break the system given the all-day frequencies of the LDHS on the Mains, and 'residual' Crossrails (still need up to 4tph west of West Drayton to serve the smaller stations) and WRLtH services on the Reliefs. On the Reliefs, I count 12tph between Slough and Dolphin Junction of which at least 8 run west of Maidenhead. Doing that and freight on top looks very tight.

 

[cactustwirly]

From a purely timetabling perspective - looking at the Dec 25 timetable, the 'HEx services only use the Slough gap' argument seems to have disappeared. The Oxfords no longer call at Slough, and Slough's GW services seem to be exclusively the Didcot Parkway Dolphin Junction crossers. In the peaks Sloughs get no GW at all - the Didcots are promoted from Class 2 to Class 1 and are first stop Maidenhead.

I do wonder whether a Main - Relief path swap *could* be possible.

Have 4tph 'first stop Slough' crossing at Dolphin Junction in parallel moves. These effectively take the HEx paths east of Airport Junction. This means 4tph Crossrail Readings / Maidenheads can be repurposed to become Heathrow trains and call at all stops on the Relief Lines. This gives Heathrow 8-10tph consistent stopping pattern, and inner Relief Line stations get a metro service. Slough and outwards are back to being served by fast mainline trains with toilets.

The weak link in this is Dolphin Junction - having 4tph crossing all day (plus likely another 2tph Slough West crossers but peak only) might just break the system given the all-day frequencies of the LDHS on the Mains, and 'residual' Crossrails (still need up to 4tph west of West Drayton to serve the smaller stations) and WRLtH services on the Reliefs. On the Reliefs, I count 12tph between Slough and Dolphin Junction of which at least 8 run west of Maidenhead. Doing that and freight on top looks very tight.

This has always been the case the Maidenhead fasts have existed in the peaks for 20 years +

The HEX creates a gap in the timetable for these services (and the Oxford's stopping at Slough previously, off peak only) ie the semi-fast goes first then the HEx and the IET non stop to Reading behind that