The future of the Heathrow Express

[Djgr]

Interesting to see the current issue of Modern Railways saying that this should be canned.

This is in line with the majority of discussion that I have recently seen within these Forums (although there were also some rogue views expressed).

 

[cle]

Can you provide a bit more detail for those who don't have it - editorial? or an organization's view?


This is one of the most commonly raised threads here (along with GatEx->Southern) - and most agree that in theory it should, but
several political and financial reasons for why not...

 

[Djgr]

Can you provide a bit more detail for those who don't have it - editorial? or an organization's view?


This is one of the most commonly raised threads here (along with GatEx->Southern) - and most agree that in theory it should, but
several political and financial reasons for why not...

It basically follows the debates that we have had on the Forums, acknowledging the political and financial issues but ultimately concluding by looking to the big long-term picture (as I would see it, don't flog off your key national assets because you become a slave to fortune and those who have different objectives, bit late now I know post-Maggie!). It is their take.

 

[cle]

Ok cool... the tricky operational part is that they are fast paths. If they were on the slows, it all goes to Crossrail services extended from OOC - and maybe some stopping patterns are tweaked to accommodate more.

If 4 fast paths are released - can more slows get to LHR in replacement? Likely not although maybe 2tph. So what else? Kill T4 services and make them a shuttle?

And then what are the 4tph? It would likely be the end of fast to Slough/Maidenhead services. Who might then ironically want more Crossrail semi-fasts!
So it's 4tph fast to Reading - and I'm not sure where those go. Maybe Bristol via Parkway. Maybe a second to Devon (Paignton?) and speed up the Cornwall? Or Basingstoke + Newbury extras? Not sure what else works.

 

[stadler]

Ok cool... the tricky operational part is that they are fast paths. If they were on the slows, it all goes to Crossrail services extended from OOC - and maybe some stopping patterns are tweaked to accommodate more.

If 4 fast paths are released - can more slows get to LHR in replacement? Likely not although maybe 2tph. So what else? Kill T4 services and make them a shuttle?

And then what are the 4tph? It would likely be the end of fast to Slough/Maidenhead services. Who might then ironically want more Crossrail semi-fasts!
So it's 4tph fast to Reading - and I'm not sure where those go. Maybe Bristol via Parkway. Maybe a second to Devon (Paignton?) and speed up the Cornwall? Or Basingstoke + Newbury extras? Not sure what else works.

I believe that the Elizabeth Line was designed for a possible increase to 30tph (every 2 minutes) in the future. So i do not see why it would not be possible. There is a bit of freight on the GWML but i am sure they could find a workaround for them to use the fast lines or operate at night instead.

One issue at Heathrow is that the T4 branch is single track. Ideally they should double track that branch. If they made it double track then you could get 12tph EL to T123 with an even 6tph EL continuing to T4 and 6tph EL continuing to T5.

Although it is still possible to do 12tph EL to T123 at the moment with 4tph EL continuing to T4 and 8tph EL continuing to T5. You are just replacing the 4tph HX paths with EL services. Of course once you get to the GWML these paths would now use the slow lines instead of the fast lines.

 

[Simon11]

Its worth noting that Heathrow Express track access are secured till June 2028 (happy to be corrected if wrong).

Services are currently contracted out to GWR who are likely to have their contract handed back to GBR in 2026.

There are quite a few options for who would operate it for the next few years and whether the business case still stacks up for Heathrow who own the operator to secure new paths beyond 2028?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Interesting to see the current issue of Modern Railways saying that this should be canned.

I was surprised to read this given that MR does tend to be pro-industry, and so very rarely calls for bits of it to be shut down. It is my view though - I just don't think it is a worthwhile use of the paths to run a 4 car (often) EMU to Heathrow with hardly anybody on it because the Lizzie is better for almost everyone and cheaper to boot!

 

[signed]

The latest thread before this one on the subject, if I remember correctly, came to the consensus that

- Those paths are basically useless for the EL
- HAA (Heathrow Airport Authority), being the owner, is very unlikely that they will accept to surrender that cash cow and image cow easily

Heathrow Express use continuing to decline

Define scam. Are people not getting what they paid for? I think I would feel more comfortable if travellers arriving at Heathrow had easily accessible, comprehensive and unbiased information about the public transport alternatives for getting into Central London. But when you hear HEX...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[jfollows]

Although it’s hardly my local line, I used it once when it was 1+1 seating in first class, but I wouldn’t bother now. A more frequent service from Tottenham Court Road with an easy connection there from Euston would be preferable.

 

[cle]

One issue at Heathrow is that the T4 branch is single track. Ideally they should double track that branch. If they made it double track then you could get 12tph EL to T123 with an even 6tph EL continuing to T4 and 6tph EL continuing to T5.


Although it is still possible to do 12tph EL to T123 at the moment with 4tph EL continuing to T4 and 8tph EL continuing to T5. You are just replacing the 4tph HX paths with EL services. Of course once you get to the GWML these paths would now use the slow lines instead of the fast lines.

Longer term, they should close T4. And build out the other platforms at T5 so that there are four to turn trains (until some future onward purpose)

Regardless of the third runway (R3) they would be best off completing T2, and then rebuilding T3 and expanding it west, plus T5D stand - which gives that continuous 'toast rack' layout. Extend the airside connector train from T5C of course - so it's almost Atlanta-style - and then do baggage at T2 which still uses the crappy old T1 system. Consolidate the baggage network, knowing that people will have to connect between all types of these smaller terminals (but can only check in at T5A, T3a and T2a).

And of course having one line and only two stations should simplify the rail service massively. All current T4 trains to T5. See if anything is workable with HEx but if not, that's still a decent service. Knowing Picc is getting new trains and slightly faster, so will be an uptick there.

I think it is difficult to do anything with them regarding Heathrow. Would need to run fast to Reading and then who knows.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The latest thread before this one on the subject, if I remember correctly, came to the consensus that

- Those paths are basically useless for the EL
- HAA (Heathrow Airport Authority), being the owner, is very unlikely that they will accept to surrender that cash cow and image cow easily

Heathrow Express use continuing to decline

Define scam. Are people not getting what they paid for? I think I would feel more comfortable if travellers arriving at Heathrow had easily accessible, comprehensive and unbiased information about the public transport alternatives for getting into Central London. But when you hear HEX...

www.railforums.co.uk

Is it still a cash cow? It seems to be nearly empty whenever I see it.

 

[anthony263]

Would the 4tph paths on the fast lines be any good as originally didn't the heathrow express paths allow for the fast oxfords and Hereford services to call at Slough?

If the western link gets built maybe extend heathrow express beyond t5 to Reading if possible

 

[brad465]

Are HEx services destined to call at OOC when this station opens, if HEx is still running at this point? I suspect if they have to that would kill the case, as the express aspect is gone, and passengers boarding at OOC would have plenty of Lizzy services anyway that are cheaper, plus a number of Heathrow passengers coming from further east along the Lizzy anyway.

 

[cle]

side note - do we know if OOC will be zone 2 or zone 3? Will be even cheaper to get out to LHR without the zone 1 premium.

I believe it was anticipated that HEx would call, as everything needed to - which would break the 15 min to T2/3 headline.

 

[Tetchytyke]

- Those paths are basically useless for the EL
- HAA (Heathrow Airport Authority), being the owner, is very unlikely that they will accept to surrender that cash cow and image cow easily

From memory, the paths are basically useless for anything else full stop. Again from memory, there isn't the room for them west of Airport Junction.

I'm not sure HEx is the cash cow it once was though. From experience the EL trains are busy from T2/3 and the HEx isn't. The persistence of the HEx sellers in the terminal seems to have ratcheted up too which again makes me think that HEx isn't making the money it once did.

The fact that the 387s are a very very long way from luxury won't help. The 332s were refined, even in standard class. Not any more.

 

[Dr Hoo]

If HEX does survive until the first leg of HS2 is open I kinda imagined that it should do very well at Old Oak Common. Imagine luggage toting outbound air passengers decanting from HS2. Would they want to wedge themselves into already well-loaded stopping Elizabeth Line service to Heathrow with no proper luggage space? Or would they like to board a roomy, ‘nearly empty’ fast HEX for the last leg?

Obviously a lot will depend on things like pricing and publicity but the two services could potentially complement each other very effectively.

For some reason Modern Railways seems to have got itself stuck in an anti-private groove these days (unless it’s freight, whose long, lumbering trains and frequently conflicting routings are, of course, always welcome).

 

[Bletchleyite]

If HEX does survive until the first leg of HS2 is open I kinda imagined that it should do very well at Old Oak Common. Imagine luggage toting outbound air passengers decanting from HS2. Would they want to wedge themselves into already well-loaded stopping Elizabeth Line service to Heathrow with no proper luggage space? Or would they like to board a roomy, ‘nearly empty’ fast HEX for the last leg?

No, what they'll do is use services into Euston. HS2 will be an utter white elephant only sellable at bargain bucket prices until it gets to Euston, except for some people who specifically want places served by the Liz.

What they absolutely won't do is pay a premium for HEx. You could I suppose run an OOC-Paddington shuttle using an EMU but I don't think people would prefer it over the Liz which goes straight where they're going.

Edit: Oh, you mean people going from HS2 to Heathrow? They'll be negligible in number I suspect (at least while it remains an Aston-Acton shuttle), and largely budget travellers. I think the popularity of HS2 to OOC then changing for Heathrow is likely somewhat overstated, though we shall see.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Obviously a lot will depend on things like pricing and publicity but the two services could potentially complement each other very effectively.

If they brought in through ticketing at a sensible price, they definitely would complement each other very well. But that's a big if. Tickets to Heathrow Rail are already usually more expensive than splitting at whichever London Terminal you arrive at.

I've not read the Modern Railways article, but there is a question about exactly what HEx is for.

For me, a good starting point would be including HEx within the TfL price caps, perhaps at a small supplement of £5 to £10 compared to what you'd have paid on EL. The trouble with HEx now is that the price differential is too high. I think Heathrow know that too; it's interesting that the minimum booking window for the advance tickets has been cut from 45 days to 30 days.

 

[signed]

Is it still a cash cow? It seems to be nearly empty whenever I see it.

There has to be a fair amount of tourists that get swindled by HX salesperson scattered like every 100m on the way to the various stations at the airport. In the other direction, I am less sure.

Since most flights arrive at ~6-8am, I wonder if there is a noticable peak on HX into town at around that time.

HAA is a private company, so we probably never will get real data about ridership. And I wouldn't be surprised if it was more of a question of image than actual rentability.

 

[quantinghome]

HAA is a private company, so we probably never will get real data about ridership. And I wouldn't be surprised if it was more of a question of image than actual rentability.

ORR is your friend... https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/passenger-rail-usage/

A gradual reduction in usage is seen post-covid. A bit tricky to translate into revenue but I would guess they're getting around £80m per year judging from the value (if that's the right term) of their advance/single/return fares.

EDIT: I found the actual revenues and cost data - see my post down the thread.

 

[signed]

ORR is your friend... https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/passenger-rail-usage/

A gradual reduction in usage is seen post-covid. A bit tricky to translate into revenue but I would guess they're getting around £80m per year judging from the value (if that's the right term) of their advance/single/return fares.

View attachment 189279

Thank you very much, so yeah maybe by 2027-28 when renewal will be on the table the outlook will be different. But bearing in mind what that service is, I would say it's still healthily used and probably makes some money (but again, I wonder how much of HX is image).

Plus the loss of the service would make it harder for some to travel to the airport for work, as it's free on weekends and after 1800, 50% off at every other time for Heathrow employees

 

[Bletchleyite]

Plus the loss of the service would make it harder for some to travel to the airport for work, as it's free on weekends and after 1800, 50% off at every other time for Heathrow employees

If that's a taxable benefit based on the actual fares (generally free commuting would be considered a taxable benefit) then I suspect the fares on TfL are lower than (or at least similar to) the tax paid on that!

 

[Djgr]

ORR is your friend... https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/passenger-rail-usage/

A gradual reduction in usage is seen post-covid. A bit tricky to translate into revenue but I would guess they're getting around £80m per year judging from the value (if that's the right term) of their advance/single/return fares.

View attachment 189279

So about 1/3rd down on its peak year

PS That's quite a lot

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Sep 2025 ==

Thank you very much, so yeah maybe by 2027-28 when renewal will be on the table the outlook will be different.

If you ignore the trend of the graph

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Sep 2025 ==

Plus the loss of the service would make it harder for some to travel to the airport for work, as it's free on weekends and after 1800, 50% off at every other time for Heathrow employees

If needs be this perk could be transferred to the EL.

It wouldn't be physically harder, just financially. Presumably Heathrow Airport could just pay their staff more?

But it's hardly a compelling reason to keep HEX. It's like justifying keeping first class on an "Inter city" service so that the staff can use it as a messroom to jibber jabber.

 

[signed]

So about 1/3rd down on its peak year

PS That's quite a lot

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Sep 2025 ==


If you ignore the trend of the graph

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Sep 2025 ==


If needs be this perk could be transferred to the EL.

It wouldn't be physically harder, just financially. Presumably Heathrow Airport could just pay their staff more?

But it's hardly a compelling reason to keep HEX. It's like justifying keeping first class on an "Inter city" service so that the staff can use it as a messroom to jibber jabber.

All fair points yes

 

[Zomboid]

It is still carrying a lot of people, and there is a prestige factor to consider.
Unless (until) it becomes a financial black hole then I don't see Heathrow wanting to lose that.

 

[Brubulus]

From memory, the paths are basically useless for anything else full stop. Again from memory, there isn't the room for them west of Airport Junction.

Is this still true?
I have a suspicion this might be a myth.

 

[30907]

From memory, the paths are basically useless for anything else full stop. Again from memory, there isn't the room for them west of Airport Junction.

That's pretty much the case. A 110 path requires an extra 2.5min to Dolphin Jn compared with an IET - upgrading Dolphin might make 1min difference but not enough to create a path.

 

[cle]

but if everything on the fasts was 125mph, surely that would be simpler? As both OOC and Reading have twin pairs to intake/dispatch at same time. From which point (the latter) they can then disperse onto different routes.

 

[Bald Rick]

Longer term, they should close T4. And build out the other platforms at T5 so that there are four to turn trains (until some future onward purpose)

Regardless of the third runway (R3) they would be best off completing T2, and then rebuilding T3 and expanding it west, plus T5D stand - which gives that continuous 'toast rack' layout.

That’s more or less what Heathrow are going to do.


Re the HEx paths, in the off peak they probably could be repurposed as far as Reading, but what happens after there is subject to capacity constraints somewhere or other.

 

[Djgr]

That's pretty much the case. A 110 path requires an extra 2.5min to Dolphin Jn compared with an IET - upgrading Dolphin might make 1min difference but not enough to create a path.

Even if the paths couldn't be repurposed, which in the medium term they clearly could, eliminating the HEx paths would provide some useful slack in the system around Paddington.