UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[jon0844]

There's little incentive for BP, Shell etc to offer cheap electricity that makes petrol and diesel look expensive. I have read that some places are now doing 50% discounts (but this is only what I've read; no specific examples or locations were stated) where there are numerous sites nearby and competition is starting to happen - presumably as nobody wants their newly installed chargers not making ANY money.

Prices will come down as more and more charging points are installed, or the expensive ones will sit unused as people shop around. With many EVs (and likely all new ones) coming with navigation software that routes via chargers based on your personalised criteria, it's easier than ever to avoid the mickey takers.

I do like the idea of being billed at home, perhaps with a moderate convenience fee, when using some chargers as this could help solve the issue of not having your own parking space/driveway.

 

[Energy]

There's little incentive for BP, Shell etc to offer cheap electricity that makes petrol and diesel look expensive. I have read that some places are now doing 50% discounts (but this is only what I've read; no specific examples or locations were stated) where there are numerous sites nearby and competition is starting to happen - presumably as nobody wants their newly installed chargers not making ANY money.

Prices will come down as more and more charging points are installed, or the expensive ones will sit unused as people shop around. With many EVs (and likely all new ones) coming with navigation software that routes via chargers based on your personalised criteria, it's easier than ever to avoid the mickey takers.

Back in early 2022 MFG was 39p/kWh, its now 79p/kWh. The networks should be able to come down...

I do like the idea of being billed at home, perhaps with a moderate convenience fee, when using some chargers as this could help solve the issue of not having your own parking space/driveway.

Octopus Electroverse adds it to your monthly bill, but it's whatever the network normally charges, sometimes with a slight discount. I think the idea of your monthly bill + a little charge would work well for the local on-street ac chargers.

 

[jon0844]

The operators all claim the huge cost of installing the equipment and VAT etc for having to charge as much as they do, but clearly they're charging what they think they can get away with.

As more sites are opened, competition will have to play a part (if it doesn't then there must be price fixing and collusion going on) as some sites will sit empty - and then the operator loses out big time.

 

[Energy]

The operators all claim the huge cost of installing the equipment and VAT etc for having to charge as much as they do, but clearly they're charging what they think they can get away with.

I've heard of high-standing charges as well. Its difficult to take operators seriously when they are charging so much more than a few years ago, GRIDSERVE was charging 45p/kWh on their new and fancy 350kw chargers (39p on the slower 60kw units and at their own branded hubs) back in 2022.

 

[jon0844]

Rates will be between 1p and 11p overnight per kWh, and last month had a number of days with negative pricing (as well as some very bad days) so I wonder when we might see time of use tariffs on public chargers? Tesla is offering different rates at different times of day, so it can obviously be done.

I would be expecting to see the 80-90p/kWh rates between 4 and 7pm, but not for those who might charge for 20 minutes mid-morning or between 11pm and 7am.

 

[E27007]

There's little incentive for BP, Shell etc to offer cheap electricity that makes petrol and diesel look expensive. I have read that some places are now doing 50% discounts (but this is only what I've read; no specific examples or locations were stated) where there are numerous sites nearby and competition is starting to happen - presumably as nobody wants their newly installed chargers not making ANY money.

Prices will come down as more and more charging points are installed, or the expensive ones will sit unused as people shop around. With many EVs (and likely all new ones) coming with navigation software that routes via chargers based on your personalised criteria, it's easier than ever to avoid the mickey takers.

I do like the idea of being billed at home, perhaps with a moderate convenience fee, when using some chargers as this could help solve the issue of not having your own parking space/driveway.

Please consider the "footfall" of a public EV charging point vs a petrol pump.
A single petrol pump may fuel 10 to 15 cars an hour, if each car takes £30 of fuel, that is a £300 to £450 of turnover per hour.
By contrast , a ZEV charger, 2 to 3 cars an hour, each taking 20KW at 60p /kWhr, a modest turnover per hour compared to the petrol pump.
No surprise BP etc do not offer cheap electricity.

 

[jon0844]

Petrol companies always claim that they only make 1 or 2p profit on a litre of fuel after all the other costs are factored in, so I wonder how it compares not on turnover but profit?

Plus a petrol station (bar unstaffed pay at pump ones) is generally a much larger operation. EV chargers can be built in a car park that's already there and requires very little maintenance, and going forward with destination charging there won't be a petrol station at all. It will require more driving to get to one, and prices may well have risen still further too.

Following on from what I said earlier, I read elsewhere that Ionity has been offering 'plunge pricing' discounts when electricity is cheaper. They've been advising customers online and offering big discounts when the wholesale rates have been near zero, zero or even negative (but sadly not actually going negative!).

I am therefore a little more confident that EV charging in public locations will get a lot cheaper in time. Not motorway services, obviously, but in plenty of places to make it likely you might be paying rates comparable to the standard variable rate and a small markup. To get free charging, you'll obviously need to charge at home and be either on the right tariff or have solar etc.

I am still waiting for the day I can get half price petrol, or free petrol!

 

[AM9]

Please consider the "footfall" of a public EV charging point vs a petrol pump.
A single petrol pump may fuel 10 to 15 cars an hour, if each car takes £30 of fuel, that is a £300 to £450 of turnover per hour.
By contrast , a ZEV charger, 2 to 3 cars an hour, each taking 20KW at 60p /kWhr, a modest turnover per hour compared to the petrol pump.
No surprise BP etc do not offer cheap electricity.

Remember that currently, about 60% of properties have parking space such that when their residents have EVs they will have installed chargers. This wil drastically reduce the demand for local charging stations to levels that can easily be accommodated, (both in space terms and as viable investments including grid connections). Marry that up to the fact that the average daily distance driven by private cars is well under 30 miles. So the local demand for public charging will be of the same order, (10kWh/day/car x 0.4). For those rushing to their sick aunt 400 mles away, those exceptional journeys will be randomly spread across local charging stations nationally or as a last resort, at a motorway charging station.

 

[Bald Rick]

Please consider the "footfall" of a public EV charging point vs a petrol pump.
A single petrol pump may fuel 10 to 15 cars an hour, if each car takes £30 of fuel, that is a £300 to £450 of turnover per hour.

It might do, but in practice very few do so. And as others have said, it is not about turnover, but return on capital employed. There is a lot of capital in petrol stations, and not much margin. Which is why so many of them have closed over the past few decades.

 

[E27007]

Petrol companies always claim that they only make 1 or 2p profit on a litre of fuel after all the other costs are factored in, so I wonder how it compares not on turnover but profit?

Plus a petrol station (bar unstaffed pay at pump ones) is generally a much larger operation. EV chargers can be built in a car park that's already there and requires very little maintenance, and going forward with destination charging there won't be a petrol station at all. It will require more driving to get to one, and prices may well have risen still further too.

Following on from what I said earlier, I read elsewhere that Ionity has been offering 'plunge pricing' discounts when electricity is cheaper. They've been advising customers online and offering big discounts when the wholesale rates have been near zero, zero or even negative (but sadly not actually going negative!).

I am therefore a little more confident that EV charging in public locations will get a lot cheaper in time. Not motorway services, obviously, but in plenty of places to make it likely you might be paying rates comparable to the standard variable rate and a small markup. To get free charging, you'll obviously need to charge at home and be either on the right tariff or have solar etc.

I am still waiting for the day I can get half price petrol, or free petrol!

Both cases charging of a ZEV, and fuelling an IC are distress purchases, the consumer makes the purchase because of a necessity, fill up or charge or the vehicle comes to a halt.

Many petrol stations have closed in the last 40 years, a businessman told me of a medium-sized station which roughly broke even on petrol sales but the profit came from the footfall and sales of counter sales in the shop, and that it is typical.

Range and mpg of petrol cars effectively doubled between 1980 and 2005 eg my 1981 Ford Cortina 1.6, 20 to 25 mpg, my 2005 Honda Jazz 40 to 60 mpg. The supply chain of fuel for IC cars exceeds demand, petrol is discounted the supply chain for a ZEV is a long way behind demand, charges are high

 

[johncrossley]

Many petrol stations have closed in the last 40 years, a businessman told me of a medium-sized station which roughly broke even on petrol sales but the profit came from the footfall and sales of counter sales in the shop, and that it is typical.

This is often stated about UK petrol stations, but why are there so many petrol stations that are only pay at pump in other countries? In the Netherlands, it isn't always easy to find a staffed petrol station.

 

[signed]

but why are there so many petrol stations that are only pay at pump in other countries?

My experience in France of only pay at pump, is that it's either one of the petrol supplier brands (Total, Shell, Esso...) which sometimes charge an arm and a leg.

Or supermarkets which charge the less (and will expect you enter the store)

 

[trebor79]

Please consider the "footfall" of a public EV charging point vs a petrol pump.
A single petrol pump may fuel 10 to 15 cars an hour, if each car takes £30 of fuel, that is a £300 to £450 of turnover per hour.
By contrast , a ZEV charger, 2 to 3 cars an hour, each taking 20KW at 60p /kWhr, a modest turnover per hour compared to the petrol pump.
No surprise BP etc do not offer cheap electricity.

Most cars can charge much more quickly than that, so I think you can double the quantity sold.
Petrol pumps do not serve 10 to 15 cars and hour. At a busy site it's more like 6 to 10 by the time people have paid etc. 4 minutes to fill, pay, faff getting strapped in etc is not realistic.
Also the fuel is very expensive to buy in the first place, whereas the electricity is costing no more than half the retail price to buy, and probably considerably less.
The petrol pump and associated storage equipment is much more expensive to install and maintain than a rapid charger.

It's not possible to make a meaningful conclusion from a simplistic comparison of turnover.

 

[Mawkie]

Came across a BBC article this week about 2 new large battery storage installations in Scotland that will help to balance the grid.

Work is under way to create what has been described as Europe's largest battery storage project at Coalburn in South Lanarkshire.
Developers say the two huge neighbouring battery farms - one at the site of a former opencast coal mine - will store enough electricity to power three million homes.
Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are being built across the UK to help balance the electricity grid, which is becoming increasingly powered by renewables.
Almost 90% of the electricity generated in Scotland last year was from low carbon sources like wind, solar or nuclear, according to figures from the Scottish government.
To help balance the peaks and troughs of renewables, the National Grid estimates that the UK would need to see BESS provision grow almost six times over by the end of the decade.
The one gigawatt facility at Coalburn is being constructed in two phases.
It will be charged using excess power from wind farms with the electricity being discharged when demand is high or renewable generation is low.
The giant batteries will operate for two hours at a time before being depleted.
Work on the first phase started in November 2023 and is due to be operational later this year.
The developers - Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) - have confirmed that construction will begin shortly on stage two.

Nischal Agarwal from CIP said the projects would enhance the the country's energy security.
He added it would support the UK's pursuit of a clean power system by 2030 and deliver a net-zero carbon economy by 2050.
Alongside the final investment decision for the Coalburn 2 site, CIP has also confirmed that work will begin soon on a similar sized battery farm near Kincardine in Fife.
The Devilla site will take the company's storage capacity up to 1.5GW.
"By helping to supply reliable and secure power to our homes and businesses, well-located storage systems, such as batteries and pumped hydro storage, can move us closer to net zero and directly support the communities around them."
The second phase of the Coalburn development is being built on the former Broken Cross open cast workings about four miles south of Lesmahagow.
Owner Hargreaves Services announced in 2016 that it was ending mining there along with five other sites in Scotland.
A nine turbine wind farm is being constructed on the site, with work due to begin this year on the second phase of the Coalburn 2 battery storage site.
The project is expected to reach full capacity by the end of 2027.

Firstly, isn't great that these kinds of sites are being redeveloped in old open cast mines!

Secondly, I'm astonished at the speed of installation and commissioning. Started in November 2023 and will be contributing to the National Grid later this year.

 

[Bald Rick]

Came across a BBC article this week about 2 new large battery storage installations in Scotland that will help to balance the grid.


Firstly, isn't great that these kinds of sites are being redeveloped in old open cast mines!

Secondly, I'm astonished at the speed of installation and commissioning. Started in November 2023 and will be contributing to the National Grid later this year.

As I put on the thread about windpower etc, this is just one of many that are under construction. There’s another going in at Trafford Park that’s 2GWh, and one in Thurrock that is 0.6GWh. Also many new grid scale Solar projects are coming with 2 hours battery capacity at peak output; that will be used to ‘harvest’ solar in the middle of the day (when it’s not needed, as there will be so much) and sent to the grid in the evening.

In terms of build and commissioning, it’s fairly straightforward; all the kit is containerised, the complex bit is getting onto the grid / DNO itself.

 

[HSTEd]

In terms of build and commissioning, it’s fairly straightforward; all the kit is containerised, the complex bit is getting onto the grid / DNO itself.

The modern electricity industry is apparently unable to match the CEGB of the late 1960s in terms of connecting new plant!

Electricity production and consumption rose around 10% per annum throughout the late 1960s.

 

[philthetube]

How a car is powered and child poverty certainly wasn't on my anti EV bingo card.

EVs will be cheaper to maintain and more reliable so if anything will help struggling families who need a car but can barely afford to run one. Sure, maybe not today or tomorrow but certainly once EVs are in the majority - which obviously is going to happen whether you like it or not.

Where is the average struggling family going to park said car?

I live in an are where there are many terraced houses and a lack of parking space, drive around at night and there are cars parked on street corners, on kerbs etc.

I refuse to believe that councils will allow chargers to be installed in these sort of positions Houses are not wide enough to have a charger apiece even if houses were limited to one car each.


without tarmacking a local park there is no space available to set up a charging park.

Much as I am in favour in principle of ev's the only possible solution I can see for many is underfloor or overhead charging, A high proportion of the poorer public are excluded until then.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Where is the average struggling family going to park said car?

I live in an are where there are many terraced houses and a lack of parking space, drive around at night and there are cars parked on street corners, on kerbs etc.

I refuse to believe that councils will allow chargers to be installed in these sort of positions Houses are not wide enough to have a charger apiece even if houses were limited to one car each.


without tarmacking a local park there is no space available to set up a charging park.

Much as I am in favour in principle of ev's the only possible solution I can see for many is underfloor or overhead charging, A high proportion of the poorer public are excluded until then.

This is where my feelings that there are too many cars and too much dependency on cars are awoken.

It is impossible for us all to have cars *(see below) and the environmental considerations could/should have encouraged us to use cars less by improving public transport. Furthermore we could have improved peoples way of life by by making a car less necessary but also by changing peoples expectations. I know so many people who will use a car where the journey was so short that I could not be bothered to drive. I am not some health zealot - just someone who sees health as something I will try (not too hard) to hang on to.

* = In my road the houses are terraced houses, they are 12 foot wide, the marked parking bays are 19 foot long. So two car parking spaces takes up 2 foot more than the frontage of three houses. So slightly more than one in three houses has to go without a car with the other two having only one car. As you say - it means all spaces on the road having a charging point as it is difficult to get the right space all the time for an ICE EV to charge. I know an ICE EV is not on charge all the time it is parked BUT very few people are going to want to play musical chairs swapping car parking spaces with others who need it. If we were to be that cooperative then car clubs might do better.

For me I am trying to get to the point where I hire a car/van when I really need it. But our whole car culture makes this difficult. We are addicted to cars and ICEs are not the solution to that.

EDIT 14/01/2025
Correction as I referred to ICE when I meant EV (crossed out and replaced with EV in bold above in two places).
Don't know what my brain was telling my hands to type !.

 

[telstarbox]

Of the two petrol stations I use most often:

The Sainsbury's supermarket one is never busy in the evening rush hour or later and you can get straight onto a pump. Yesterday I had to queue for a couple of minutes at Saturday lunchtime (also one lane was coned off).

The Esso / Tesco one is busy on Monday morning with builders' vans but the rest of the week you can get straight onto a pump. Most drivers seem to buy a couple of food items which increases dwell time compared to straight fuelling.

Anecdotal but these two are nowhere near full utilisation across the week.

@Peter Sarf I also spend around 30 minutes doing the 'big shop' at the Sainsbury's so would happily pay for a rapid charger during that time, or a whole hour as I could do some work emails / Duolingo in the car. Not expecting chargers on our terraced street any time soon.

 

[Lloyds siding]

Our local Shell garages are being fitted with multiple charging points right now.

 

[telstarbox]

Same here at the one of the edge of town, which incorporates a Greggs so I can see that working nicely. Strangely the Tesco-Esso one was rebuilt recently but without any EV chargers.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Of the two petrol stations I use most often:

The Sainsbury's supermarket one is never busy in the evening rush hour or later and you can get straight onto a pump. Yesterday I had to queue for a couple of minutes at Saturday lunchtime (also one lane was coned off).

The Esso / Tesco one is busy on Monday morning with builders' vans but the rest of the week you can get straight onto a pump. Most drivers seem to buy a couple of food items which increases dwell time compared to straight fuelling.

Anecdotal but these two are nowhere near full utilisation across the week.

@Peter Sarf I also spend around 30 minutes doing the 'big shop' at the Sainsbury's so would happily pay for a rapid charger during that time, or a whole hour as I could do some work emails / Duolingo in the car. Not expecting chargers on our terraced street any time soon.

I avoid the big shop so I do not have to use my car. It is 10 (15 ?) minutes walk to my local Morrisons. Others a bus ride away. But then I live in London with plenty of buses !.

I would mainly want to charge my EV ready for use. I would be wanting to keep it topped up.

 

[The Ham]

This is where my feelings that there are too many cars and too much dependency on cars are awoken.

It is impossible for us all to have cars *(see below) and the environmental considerations could/should have encouraged us to use cars less by improving public transport. Furthermore we could have improved peoples way of life by by making a car less necessary but also by changing peoples expectations. I know so many people who will use a car where the journey was so short that I could not be bothered to drive. I am not some health zealot - just someone who sees health as something I will try (not too hard) to hang on to.

* = In my road the houses are terraced houses, they are 12 foot wide, the marked parking bays are 19 foot long. So two car parking spaces takes up 2 foot more than the frontage of three houses. So slightly more than one in three houses has to go without a car with the other two having only one car. As you say - it means all spaces on the road having a charging point as it is difficult to get the right space all the time for an ICE to charge. I know an ICE is not on charge all the time it is parked BUT very few people are going to want to play musical chairs swapping car parking spaces with others who need it. If we were to be that cooperative then car clubs might do better.

For me I am trying to get to the point where I hire a car/van when I really need it. But our whole car culture makes this difficult. We are addicted to cars and ICEs are not the solution to that.

The inability to park a car for each home is why things like car clubs can be useful (of course they aren't always viable for every trip - such as going to work, but are viable for getting shopping home). Especially as cars are used for such a small amount of the day.

 

[Harpers Tate]

It's still a few years yet until all NEW cars sold have to be pure EV, even if the government doesn't backtrack on its current 10-year target. It's a fair assumption that the majority of the "disadvantaged" are unlikely to replace their car with a brand new model; used (often getting quite old - let's say 5-10 years) is more likely.

So the issues described here concerning "disadvantaged", terraced housing and charging points etc., will only manifest in absolute earnest in 15-20 years time when used ICEs 5-10 years old become almost impossible to find and they pretty much have to buy an EV or go without.

Now if we consider what has happened to the charging infrastructure in the LAST 15-20 years and extrapolate that forwards, then and only then can we begin to imagine what life will be like. Tesla came to the UK in 2014, with both cars and the first public chargepoints. We are where we are today in just 11 years.

Maybe some government will actually apply some common sense and begin the process of reversing car dependency. Maybe not. Make that "probably not". Either way, it's flawed to predict one side of a situation (more EVs) whilst at the same time using the present situation on the other (charging network). Better to predict that BOTH things will change more or less in parallel.

 

[Peter Sarf]

It's still a few years yet until all NEW cars sold have to be pure EV, even if the government doesn't backtrack on its current 10-year target. It's a fair assumption that the majority of the "disadvantaged" are unlikely to replace their car with a brand new model; used (often getting quite old - let's say 5-10 years) is more likely.

So the issues described here concerning "disadvantaged", terraced housing and charging points etc., will only manifest in absolute earnest in 15-20 years time when used ICEs 5-10 years old become almost impossible to find and they pretty much have to buy an EV or go without.

Now if we consider what has happened to the charging infrastructure in the LAST 15-20 years and extrapolate that forwards, then and only then can we begin to imagine what life will be like. Tesla came to the UK in 2014, with both cars and the first public chargepoints. We are where we are today in just 11 years.

Maybe some government will actually apply some common sense and begin the process of reversing car dependency. Maybe not. Make that "probably not". Either way, it's flawed to predict one side of a situation (more EVs) whilst at the same time using the present situation on the other (charging network). Better to predict that BOTH things will change more or less in parallel.

In fact I know of many who buy good cars that are 15-20 years old. I myself am looking vaguely at 15-20 year old Honda CRVs. I would prefer younger for the money.
That means even longer for things to evolve - usually for the better. The most worrying thing is if that is even longer for batteries to degrade. I suspect a 15-20 year old make/model EV will have exhibited the worst of its battery problems by 2040-45 so some will be avoids and others will look bullet proof.

 

[Mawkie]

I watched a fascinating interview today with the Ian Johnston, the CEO of Osprey Charging. Around the 40 minutes mark, he discusses pricing of public charging, with real life examples from his own charging network. The basic infrastructure costs are astronomical, but the ongoing costs have increase exponentially too (not related to the actual price of wholesale electricity.)

The whole podcast/video is interesting, but the last 10 minutes discuss public pricing.

 

[Sun Chariot]

I watched a fascinating interview today with the Ian Johnston, the CEO of Osprey Charging. Around the 40 minutes mark, he discusses pricing of public charging, with real life examples from his own charging network. The basic infrastructure costs are astronomical, but the ongoing costs have increase exponentially too (not related to the actual price of wholesale electricity.)

I hope they aren't actually exponential. Else the rate of price increase will grow faster in each moment, until each public charge will be an infinite cost...

 

[61653 HTAFC]

In my road the houses are terraced houses, they are 12 foot wide, the marked parking bays are 19 foot long. So two car parking spaces takes up 2 foot more than the frontage of three houses. So slightly more than one in three houses has to go without a car with the other two having only one car. As you say - it means all spaces on the road having a charging point as it is difficult to get the right space all the time for an ICE to charge. I know an ICE is not on charge all the time it is parked BUT very few people are going to want to play musical chairs swapping car parking spaces with others who need it. If we were to be that cooperative then car clubs might do better.

For me I am trying to get to the point where I hire a car/van when I really need it. But our whole car culture makes this difficult. We are addicted to cars and ICEs are not the solution to that.

Where you've typed "ICE" here, did you mean to type "EV"?
Otherwise it doesn't make sense, as ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) do not need charging.

 

[GusB]

Where you've typed "ICE" here, did you mean to type "EV"?
Otherwise it doesn't make sense, as ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) do not need charging.

The poster you've quoted is wedded to ancient ICE vehicles, so the term is probably well embedded!

I hope they aren't actually exponential. Else the rate of price increase will grow faster in each moment, until each public charge will be an infinite cost...

Please stop being so pedantic. "Costs have risen exponentially" is just a way of saying that costs are rising rather quickly.

In fact I know of many who buy good cars that are 15-20 years old. I myself am looking vaguely at 15-20 year old Honda CRVs. I would prefer younger for the money.
That means even longer for things to evolve - usually for the better.

What does looking at a 15-20 year old Honda CRV have to do with a thread that's discussing whether or not it's realistic for the UK to switch to EVs? You clearly have a thing for older cars and that's fine - classic cars wouldn't exist if nobody took an interest in them.

In the meantime, most ordinary car drivers will keep their vehicles for a few years and then they'll move on to something newer. People who primarily buy used cars will still only keep their vehicles for as long as they're financially viable to run and, in more recent times, whether or not those vehicles will meet any ULEZ and other environmental considerations.

The most worrying thing is if that is even longer for batteries to degrade. I suspect a 15-20 year old make/model EV will have exhibited the worst of its battery problems by 2040-45 so some will be avoids and others will look bullet proof.

Perhaps in 20 years' time there will be a cohort of people who have enthusiasm for early EVs. They will try to indulge their hobby in exactly the same way as current classic car enthusiasts do. They'll have to rely on there being sufficient scrap cars to provide parts and they'll also have to rely on the existence of companies that can refurbish or provide replacement batteries.

Ordinary people, those who don't have a fetish for 15-20 year-old cars, won't ever have to worry because they'll be buying cars that are either new, or a couple of years old, just as people do now with ICE vehicles!

 

[Ediswan]

Please stop being so pedantic. "Costs have risen exponentially" is just a way of saying that costs are rising rather quickly.

In this case, I support the pedantry. There is too much misuse of this term in that way.

I hope they aren't actually exponential. Else the rate of price increase will grow faster in each moment, until each public charge will be an infinite cost...

As inflation is exponential, in general, costs will increase exponetially.