2024 Conservative Leadership Election

[jfollows]

Have the four contenders got a schedule for their attempts to make themselves look stupid and unelectable?

Today it seems to be Cleverley’s turn, as he’s tweeted about how Labour are “unpatriotic” ceding the Chagos Islands…..only to be fact checked by about a thousand people who’ve pointed out it was him who started the negotiations in 2022 and him who said he’d hoped they’d be finished in 2023

But at least it enabled them all to say “sovereignty” a lot, which is like catnip to some potential supporters, and of course Farage jumped on the bandwagon.

 

[dangie]

Have the four contenders got a schedule for their attempts to make themselves look stupid and unelectable?

Making themselves look stupid and unelectable is not really a problem as it’s the stupid who are going to elect them

 

[DarloRich]

Interesting that the soferinty supporters are suddenly worried about sovereignty. Must be the wrong sort!

 

[nw1]

Have the four contenders got a schedule for their attempts to make themselves look stupid and unelectable?

Today it seems to be Cleverley’s turn, as he’s tweeted about how Labour are “unpatriotic” ceding the Chagos Islands…..only to be fact checked by about a thousand people who’ve pointed out it was him who started the negotiations in 2022 and him who said he’d hoped they’d be finished in 2023

Oops... Not so Cleverly?

 

[317 forever]

Next up in the "who is the most blindly arrogant" contest, Truss, who lost her own seat, claims she would have done better than Sunak in the election:

I'd have done better than Sunak in election, says Liz Truss

The former PM tells a packed hall what she thinks of her Tory predecessors and the MPs vying to be the next leader.

www.bbc.co.uk

It is laughable that she makes out the Tories would have done better had she remained Prime Minister. Quite apart from losing her own seat, her anti-Tory swing was higher than average. This suggests that they would have done worse not better with her at the helm.

 

[SuspectUsual]

It is laughable that she makes out the Tories would have done better had she remained Prime Minister. Quite apart from losing her own seat, her anti-Tory swing was higher than average. This suggests that they would have done worse not better with her at the helm.

Never underestimate the power of the Turnip Taliban - there was a lot of local Tory opposition to her

(Link below to Independent article)

Lettuce Liz vs Turnip Taliban: Inside Truss’s battle to save her Norfolk seat

The former PM is fighting to avoid the ultimate 'Portillo moment', under threat from a campaign backed by ex-Tory minister Dominic Grieve

inews.co.uk

 

[Magdalia]

It is laughable that she makes out the Tories would have done better had she remained Prime Minister. Quite apart from losing her own seat, her anti-Tory swing was higher than average. This suggests that they would have done worse not better with her at the helm.

Never underestimate the power of the Turnip Taliban - there was a lot of local Tory opposition to her

The Turnip Taliban opposed the election of Liz Truss as candidate for South West Norfolk prior to the 2010 General Election.

The independent in the 2024 General Election was de facto the Turnip Taliban candidate, getting more than 6000 votes.

In other news, there is now a blue plaque outside Tesco in Walthamstow to mark that the lettuce was bought there.

‘Blue plaque’ at Walthamstow Tesco honours lettuce that outlasted Liz Truss

Star of Daily Star’s web stunt given fake heritage mark after proving itself less perishable than Truss’s premiership

www.theguardian.com

A fake blue plaque has been erected outside a Tesco in Walthamstow to commemorate the fact that the lettuce that famously outlasted Liz Truss’s premiership was bought there.

 

[3141]

It is laughable that she makes out the Tories would have done better had she remained Prime Minister. Quite apart from losing her own seat, her anti-Tory swing was higher than average. This suggests that they would have done worse not better with her at the helm.

I find it alarming that we have Liz Truss making such claims, and Boris Johnson in the process of claiming that he didn't lie about "Partygate" and it was all a plot to get rid of him; and also now revising his view about the origin of the Covid virus, as if to say that that was a plot as well, which might excuse any flaws in his response to it back in 2020.

It must have been a massive blow to the egos of both these characters to be forced to resign the premiership. We can probably dismiss Truss. but Johnson is certainly still dreaming of a comeback.

 

[Harpo]

Johnson is certainly still dreaming of a comeback.

It astonishes me that so many in the party see Johnson as a silver bullet rather than a clusterduck buffoon.

 

[nw1]

In terms of an actual future right-wing government and a return to the right-wing politics of the Johnson/Truss/Sunak era, am I alone in thinking that Cleverly could be the most likely of all of them to actually make that happen?

I would assume that Jenrick and Badenoch would be too right-wing to get even close to winning a general election. Tugendhat is perhaps relatively moderate but Cleverly seems to be right-wing enough to perhaps lead a government with unpleasant policies (he seems to the right of Sunak, for example) but not so right-wing to completely turn off the electorate.

So for that reason I am more worried about a Cleverly win than any of the others, even though some of the others are more extreme. Any thoughts?

 

[Acfb]

In terms of an actual future right-wing government and a return to the right-wing politics of the Johnson/Truss/Sunak era, am I alone in thinking that Cleverly could be the most likely of all of them to actually make that happen?

I would assume that Jenrick and Badenoch would be too right-wing to get even close to winning a general election. Tugendhat is perhaps relatively moderate but Cleverly seems to be right-wing enough to perhaps lead a government with unpleasant policies (he seems to the right of Sunak, for example) but not so right-wing to completely turn off the electorate.

So for that reason I am more worried about a Cleverly win than any of the others, even though some of the others are more extreme. Any thoughts?

I don't think Cleverly is ruthless enough.
To be fair to the Tories (and indeed Labour) I don't think we can make predictions because of political fragmentation. How Reform performs is a complete unknown as well. I think Jenrick is a complete slimy weasel but I suppose he doesn't seem as 'weak' as the other three which is why the right wing media seems to think he is the 'chosen one'. How Labour performs depends on what they do deliver and external foreign policy factors I think. I do think the Lib Dems are in a really good position though under any leader (even Tugendhat, whose seat could become a Green target).

 

[3141]

I don't think Cleverly is ruthless enough.
To be fair to the Tories (and indeed Labour) I don't think we can make predictions because of political fragmentation. How Reform performs is a complete unknown as well. I think Jenrick is a complete slimy weasel but I suppose he doesn't seem as 'weak' as the other three which is why the right wing media seems to think he is the 'chosen one'. How Labour performs depends on what they do deliver and external foreign policy factors I think. I do think the Lib Dems are in a really good position though under any leader (even Tugendhat, whose seat could become a Green target).

We should be thinking that the choice of a new leader from among the current candidates, and the Tories winning an election in 2029 or the one after that, are two different issues. Some people, including right-wing media such as the Mail and Express, seem to think the second follows from getting the first one "right" (in the sense of most appropriate). What they see as "right" today may seem too extreme to the electorate in general in 2029. They may be looking for a leader whose policies will attract voters back from Reform, but would those policies attract them in sufficient numbers? Meanwhile more moderate Tories may shift to the Lib Dems.

But as you say, there is so much which is as yet unknown, including what Labour are able to achieve, and what external events occur. Perhaps, for the present, the new leader will be an irrelevance.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Some people, including right-wing media such as the Mail and Express, seem to think the second follows from getting the first one "right" (in the sense of most appropriate). What they see as "right" today may seem too extreme to the electorate in general in 2029. They may be looking for a leader whose policies will attract voters back from Reform, but would those policies attract them in sufficient numbers? Meanwhile more moderate Tories may shift to the Lib Dems

This is one of the fundamental issues the Tory leadership candidates face. They have to appeal to the right to win the leadership, but they have to appeal to the left to win an election

 

[AlterEgo]

Tugendhat is out, as I expected. Badenoch is still in but I expect her to go next for being too bonkers even for the parliamentary party.

 

[jfollows]

Tugendhat is out, as I expected. Badenoch is still in but I expect her to go next for being too bonkers even for the parliamentary party.

I agree.
Then the “party at large” gets to choose between the sensible and the other candidate. From today’s (non-Mail) press it seems that Cleverly’s standing in their eyes has improved. We’ll see. I’d expect them to go for the right-wing one, as they did with Truss. Maybe they’ve learned?

 

[Gloster]

One would expect that enough of Tugendhat’s votes would go to Cleverly, the one remaining ‘not completely bonkers’ candidate, to see him through and leave the other two on a knife edge: 31 v. 30 votes. However, one fears that whichever of those two gets through will win the members’ votes. It leaves me in a dilemma: I don’t want to see the Conservatives being a political force again so an unpopular leader would make that unlikley and is all to the good, but fear that if they somehow got in due to ’events, dear boy, events’ (Harold MacMillan) the leader could be an utter disaster for the country.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Tugendhat is out, as I expected. Badenoch is still in but I expect her to go next for being too bonkers even for the parliamentary party.

And one of their 121 MPs didn't even bother to vote

 

[Gloster]

And one of their 121 MPs didn't even bother to vote

That might have been Sunak: diplomatically staying clear of the fray.

 

[SuspectUsual]

That might have been Sunak: diplomatically staying clear of the fray.

Yes, you might well be right. Although its supposed to be a secret ballot I'm sure someone would leak it

 

[edwin_m]

One would expect that enough of Tugendhat’s votes would go to Cleverly, the one remaining ‘not completely bonkers’ candidate, to see him through and leave the other two on a knife edge: 31 v. 30 votes. However, one fears that whichever of those two gets through will win the members’ votes. It leaves me in a dilemma: I don’t want to see the Conservatives being a political force again so an unpopular leader would make that unlikley and is all to the good, but fear that if they somehow got in due to ’events, dear boy, events’ (Harold MacMillan) the leader could be an utter disaster for the country.

Rejoiners may care to consider that one of the EU's pre-conditions will be general settled political concensus about joining. They won't want to advance the process if there's a significant risk the Tories will get back in and halt or reverse it. So anyone in favour of re-joining needs to hope that they get a sensible leader that will start to row back on the last ten years. Or that they are unstoppably headed towards oblivion.

 

[brad465]

One would expect that enough of Tugendhat’s votes would go to Cleverly, the one remaining ‘not completely bonkers’ candidate, to see him through and leave the other two on a knife edge: 31 v. 30 votes. However, one fears that whichever of those two gets through will win the members’ votes. It leaves me in a dilemma: I don’t want to see the Conservatives being a political force again so an unpopular leader would make that unlikley and is all to the good, but fear that if they somehow got in due to ’events, dear boy, events’ (Harold MacMillan) the leader could be an utter disaster for the country.

This is the part of the competition where tactical voting features: expect some of Cleverley and Tugendhat's supporters to vote for whichever of the other two they think Cleverly can beat to make sure his best challenger is knocked out.

 

[317 forever]

One would expect that enough of Tugendhat’s votes would go to Cleverly, the one remaining ‘not completely bonkers’ candidate, to see him through and leave the other two on a knife edge: 31 v. 30 votes. However, one fears that whichever of those two gets through will win the members’ votes. It leaves me in a dilemma: I don’t want to see the Conservatives being a political force again so an unpopular leader would make that unlikley and is all to the good, but fear that if they somehow got in due to ’events, dear boy, events’ (Harold MacMillan) the leader could be an utter disaster for the country.

This is where I disagree with a view that, for people who prefer a Labour government, we need a comparatively unelectable Tory leader.

Firstly, we cannot be certain that they will not become Prime Minister.

Secondly, if such an unelectable Tory leader causes the public to reluctantly re-elect a Labour government, we would in due course have a longer-term Tory government.

In general, democracy works best if more parties have good leaders with effective vision and workable policies.

 

[nw1]

Rejoiners may care to consider that one of the EU's pre-conditions will be general settled political concensus about joining. They won't want to advance the process if there's a significant risk the Tories will get back in and halt or reverse it. So anyone in favour of re-joining needs to hope that they get a sensible leader that will start to row back on the last ten years. Or that they are unstoppably headed towards oblivion.

That's just one example what concerns me about Cleverly and why, ironically, I'd prefer the foaming-at-the-mouth candidate (either Badenoch or Jenrick) to win.

The risk with Cleverly is that he is (IMO) right-wing - more right-wing than Sunak - but not silly-right. Right-wing enough to continue the Johnson-Sunak path of recent years, which means presumably a return to very poor relations with the EU in addition to reversing any progressive domestic policies Labour make in the next 5 years.

Basically my fear is that with Cleverly, he could win an election, and if/when he does, it'll be back to square one on a whole range of policies, domestic and international, and we'll wake up one morning in say May 2029 and find it's 13 December 2019 again.

With Jenrick/Badenoch on the other hand, they almost certainly won't win a general election. The only possible route to power with one of those is a nightmare Tory-Reform coalition, which I'd put as possible but unlikely.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Oct 2024 ==

This is where I disagree with a view that, for people who prefer a Labour government, we need a comparatively unelectable Tory leader.

Firstly, we cannot be certain that they will not become Prime Minister.

Secondly, if such an unelectable Tory leader causes the public to reluctantly re-elect a Labour government, we would in due course have a longer-term Tory government.

On the other hand, the longer the Tories stay out of power, the more likely it is they become moderate again when they do get back in.

Perhaps better to have 10 years of moderate Tory government of the John Major type in 2034 than a further 5 years of Johnson-Sunak style Tory government in 2029. Get more of what we've had recently in 2029 (a real risk with Cleverly, IMO) and basically the country's screwed until the mid-2030s.

 

[Acfb]

That's just one example what concerns me about Cleverly and why, ironically, I'd prefer the foaming-at-the-mouth candidate (either Badenoch or Jenrick) to win.

The risk with Cleverly is that he is (IMO) right-wing - more right-wing than Sunak - but not silly-right. Right-wing enough to continue the Johnson-Sunak path of recent years, which means presumably a return to very poor relations with the EU in addition to reversing any progressive domestic policies Labour make in the next 5 years.

Basically my fear is that with Cleverly, he could win an election, and if/when he does, it'll be back to square one on a whole range of policies, domestic and international, and we'll wake up one morning in say May 2029 and find it's 13 December 2019 again.

With Jenrick/Badenoch on the other hand, they almost certainly won't win a general election. The only possible route to power with one of those is a nightmare Tory-Reform coalition, which I'd put as possible but unlikely.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Oct 2024 ==


On the other hand, the longer the Tories stay out of power, the more likely it is they become moderate again when they do get back in.

Perhaps better to have 10 years of moderate Tory government of the John Major type in 2034 than a further 5 years of Johnson-Sunak style Tory government in 2029. Get more of what we've had recently in 2029 (a real risk with Cleverly, IMO) and basically the country's screwed until the mid-2030s.

I generally agree with this, I no longer care who wins even though I was dreading Badenoch before the election. Interestingly Badenoch has now surged to be the favourite so punters think Jenrick will be knocked out. We will know in twenty minutes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Oct 2024 ==

Big shock seeing Cleverly being knocked out but clearly the media didn't have any particular insight:

Badenoch: 42
Cleverly: 37
Jenrick: 41

 

[AlterEgo]

Cleverly out by the looks of it from strategic voting. Big shock, and now just two unfettered wingnuts left in the race. Good news for Starmer but bad news for our politics.

 

[nw1]

Now that is a genuine shock. I expected Cleverly to walk it today.

For one thing I expected all the Tugendhatters to switch to Cleverly as the least right-wing of the remaining three.

What it does seem to show is that 83 of the current Tory MPs are right-wing ideologues who think that winning the next election is less important than ideological purity. They've really gone and shot themselves in the foot by not voting for Cleverly. Of course for those of us who don't want a quick return to the Sunak years in 2029 it's (hopefully) good, just hope someone doesn't know something I don't and a route to victory lies through the Tory hard right forming a pact with Farage.

 

[brad465]

Cleverly out by the looks of it from strategic voting. Big shock, and now just two unfettered wingnuts left in the race. Good news for Starmer but bad news for our politics.

I wonder if some of Cleverly's support tried to vote tactically to get a preferred rival on the member's ballot, but it backfired spectacularly (given how few votes are available in general and the small difference between each candidate's previous tallies, this was probably a bad idea if it happened).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Cleverly out by the looks of it from strategic voting. Big shock, and now just two unfettered wingnuts left in the race. Good news for Starmer but bad news for our politics.

Its fantastic news for our politics if it now precipitates a split in the Tory party so we get centrist right party to balance up our politics.

 

[AlterEgo]

I wonder if some of Cleverly's support tried to vote tactically to get a preferred rival on the member's ballot, but it backfired spectacularly (given how few votes are available in general and the small difference between each candidate's previous tallies, this was probably a bad idea if it happened).

This seems to be exactly what has happened.

Its fantastic news for our politics if it now precipitates a split in the Tory party so we get centrist right party to balance up our politics.

Mmm, much as I dislike the Tories, I do not think a lack of credible oppositon to the government is good.

 

[nw1]

Mmm, much as I dislike the Tories, I do not think a lack of credible oppositon to the government is good.

Mind you if a new centre-right party does emerge then that will presumably become our credible opposition.