2024 Conservative Leadership Election

[SuspectUsual]

Still doesn't make him look good, though

Goodness me! I was making the point how bad that makes him look!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Oct 2024 ==

We can all hope Kemi can be the next Maggie.

Do you honestly think that is remotely likely? Thatcher, for all her myriad faults, had principles and stuck to them. Badenoch is just a contrarian nobody looking for arguments, like a drunk at closing time wanting to fight anyone who looks at him

 

[nlogax]

This is going in the direction I expected but the journey took a wild and unexpected detour for sure. Cleverly and his supporters screwed up and the remaining chance for a vaguely normal leader to steer the party back to the centre-right has gone. With either of these two at the helm the Conservatives will ultimately get the leader they deserve and a sure-fire guarantee to be rendered unelectable at the next GE.

 

[nw1]

Goodness me! I was making the point how bad that makes him look!

Sorry, I wasn't implying that you thought it did make him look good! I was just saying that I'm not going to look at him any more favourably because he was an ex-remainer. Wasn't supposed to be a dig at you, just at him.

 

[edwin_m]

Do you honestly think that is remotely likely? Thatcher, for all her myriad faults, had principles and stuck to them. Badenoch is just a contrarian nobody looking for arguments, like a drunk at closing time wanting to fight anyone who looks at him

I'd say Badenoch has principles. In much the same way Liz Truss does. The problem is hardly anyone else agrees with them.

 

[Gloster]

If Badenoch wins I wouldn’t be surprised if she gets turfed out before the next election. She has a habit of ’engaging her mouth before putting her brain into gear’ and saying things that are inaccurate, but being unable to admit her mistakes and just repeating them (doubling down is, I think, the current phrase). She isn’t lying, just getting things wrong and not being big enough to admit it. You can get away with that if you are a second-rank minister, but as Leader of the Opposition it becomes rather more obvious. I wonder if we will see unedifying exchanges between her and the Speaker when he asks her to correct something. This might prove to be too much of an embarrassment for the party, although they do seem to have a pretty high bar.

 

[nw1]

Perhaps we will get Cleverly as the LOTO by 2029 after all, if one of the other two gets in and cause the Tories to plummet to 10% in the opinion polls.

 

[jfollows]

Perhaps we will get Cleverly as the LOTO by 2029 after all, if one of the other two gets in and cause the Tories to plummet to 10% in the opinion polls.

A bit like how Sunak got the job - I thought he was clearly the better candidate but the Conservative party decided otherwise. Now we have a re-run, with the best candidate in my opinion not selected. Like others, I just think it condemns the Conservatives to longer in oblivion, but all parties seem to do this - Labour in the 1980s made itself unelectable for a long time.

 

[nw1]

I'd say Badenoch has principles. In much the same way Liz Truss does. The problem is hardly anyone else agrees with them.

You're right about Badenoch but I'm not sure about Truss. Lib Dem to Cameronite Remainer to Brexiter to hardline Trump supporter - what exactly does she believe?

 

[AlterEgo]

...cause the Tories to plummet to 10% in the opinion polls.

To the profit of whom, is the big question.

 

[takno]

You're right about Badenoch but I'm not sure about Truss. Lib Dem to Cameronite Remainer to Brexiter to hardline Trump supporter - what exactly does she believe?

She believes in Britain. I think she mentioned that a couple of times

 

[DarloRich]

I said that the Tories would do what they always do after electoral defeat and lurch right appointing a loon. They ALWAYS do. I suspect Badenough will win this ghoul fest.

BTW - each of the candidates has to, apparently, pay CPHQ £150k to cover the election costs. We should be told who is fronting that. I am sure the fearless right wing press who recently got so uppity about common oik/strumpet Angela Rayner ( checks notes) buying a suit out of her own money will be all over this.......................

 

[BAFRA77]

Robert Jenrick vs Kemi Badenoch

How he hell has UK politics come down to two people who couldn’t even win an argument in a pub?

….. and no, we never talk politics in the pub……

Can anyone check the Commons Rules to see if Labour have to declare that as a gift?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Oct 2024 ==

Guardian also now reporting the following:

The Tory Reform Group, which represents One Nation Conservatives (people on the left of the party) has issued a statement saying it is refusing to back either of the two candidates left in the leadership contest – Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch.

In a statement, the TRG says Jenrick and Badenoch have both “used rhetoric and focused on issues which are far and away from the party at its best”. It says:

The Tory Reform Group (TRG) will not be endorsing a candidate in this year’s Conservative leadership contest.

As the home of One Nation Conservatism since 1975, the TRG is committed to being radically moderate, values-driven, and focused on the future. Throughout the contest, we have sought to engage extensively with all the leadership campaigns in order to understand the views and approaches of the candidates. Unfortunately, we have been consistently disappointed by the lack of engagement from the two candidates chosen by MPs.

TRG members were consulted throughout the process, and the results clearly show that neither candidate has secured widespread support from the majority of our membership. Both have used rhetoric and focused on issues which are far and away from the party at its best, let alone the One Nation values we cherish and uphold. Therefore, the board of the TRG has unanimously concluded that we are unable to endorse either candidate.

The TRG lists Ken Clarke, the former chancellor, as its president, and Damian Green, a former first secretary of state, and Robert Buckland, a former justice secretary, as vice presidents. It was set up in the 1970s and for many years it was a respected liberal/leftish voice in Tory circles. But, as the party lurched to the right after Brexit, its influence has shrunk.

 

[nw1]

Do we need to re-open this poll to see which of the two neer-do-wells remaining people think will win?

 

[edwin_m]

Do we need to re-open this poll to see which of the two neer-do-wells remaining people think will win?

It would have to be a separate poll, and the poll on this thread should probably have been locked after the first ballot. Whoever voted at the start for the eventual winner has the right to look smug.

 

[Cowley]

It would have to be a separate poll, and the poll on this thread should probably have been locked after the first ballot. Whoever voted at the start for the eventual winner has the right to look smug.

Points noted.

The poll has now been reset. Away you go people!

 

[jfollows]

That might have been Sunak: diplomatically staying clear of the fray.

I have read that Sunak is not voting.
120 out of 121 votes.

 

[nw1]

Points noted.

The poll has now been reset. Away you go people!

Thanks. I've voted, just a clarification that this is not support for the particular candidate, but just an assessment of who typical Tories might go for.

My vote would obviously be RON. Not that I get a vote as I'm not a Tory anyway....

 

[TheGuy77]

Time to recast your votes!

 

[SteveP29]

This is going in the direction I expected but the journey took a wild and unexpected detour for sure. Cleverly and his supporters screwed up and the remaining chance for a vaguely normal leader to steer the party back to the centre-right has gone. With either of these two at the helm the Conservatives will ultimately get the leader they deserve and a sure-fire guarantee to be rendered unelectable at the next GE.

I am confident that neither of the two remaining candidates will be leader by the time the next General Election comes about.

I'd say Badenoch has principles. In much the same way Liz Truss does. The problem is hardly anyone else agrees with them.

She has principles alright, they're just exchangeable for whoever pays her the most/ which way the wind blows/ what the Reform idiots are raging about this time.

Do we need to re-open this poll to see which of the two neer-do-wells remaining people think will win?

A third option with None Of The Above would be appreciated
(thank you Brewster's Millions)

 

[Purple Train]

A third option with None Of The Above would be appreciated
(thank you Brewster's Millions)

I highly doubt "none of the above" will win the contest...

 

[takno]

I highly doubt "none of the above" will win the contest...

A mass write-in vote for Nigel isn't out of the question to be fair

 

[nw1]

A mass write-in vote for Nigel isn't out of the question to be fair

Well, Kemi and Robert aren't really that much different to Nigel, to be honest.

 

[jfollows]

The key difference between the candidates is that Jenrick is a shape-shifter, he says what he thinks his audience wants to hear (shades of Boris Johnson) and I don't think anyone knows the "real" person. He's shifted from wanting to remain in the EU to supporting our departure because this sits better with his audience, he promises key supporters that he'll "tack" to the centre of the party because this is what they want to believe, and he sort of regrets some of the things he did when he was in power.
Badenoch is annoying and preachy and I don't like her, but at least she's consistent. You know what you're getting to a large extent, if you can bear to listen to her for long enough.
So I think Badenoch will win, because enough of the party members won't trust Jenrick. All this noise about leaving the ECHR, it's a non-issue in real terms, is it really that important and why is he making it so important?
I don't think either of them will rescue the electoral fortunes of the Conservative party, that requires someone else in the future.

 

[Acfb]

Well, Kemi and Robert aren't really that much different to Nigel, to be honest.

I think they are TBH. Jenrick is more transparently cynical/calculating at least on domestic issues (he is virulently pro Israel though partly because his wife was born in Israel) whereas Badenoch genuinely believes the stuff she comes out with and is obsessed with gender issues.

I don't know if either will squeeze Reform very well TBH, the best candidate for that probably would have been Priti Patel.

I was speaking to a 75 year old academic the other night who is an ex Tory voter and is now voting Lib Dem but he considered Badenoch the lesser evil and had total contempt for Jenrick.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Jenrick is a Marxist, as in Groucho.

These are my principles and if you don't like them I have others.

 

[takno]

I think they are TBH. Jenrick is more transparently cynical/calculating at least on domestic issues (he is virulently pro Israel though partly because his wife was born in Israel) whereas Badenoch genuinely believes the stuff she comes out with and is obsessed with gender issues.

I don't know if either will squeeze Reform very well TBH, the best candidate for that probably would have been Priti Patel.

I was speaking to a 75 year old academic the other night who is an ex Tory voter and is now voting Lib Dem but he considered Badenoch the lesser evil and had total contempt for Jenrick.

Honestly Jenrick having those pictures painted out at the immigration hostel was the single most callous thing I can recall in politics. Badenoch broadly seems to do what she does because she believes in it, even if it's all wrong to the point of being deranged. Jenrick just seems to think he's in an episode of House of Cards.

 

[317 forever]

Robert Jenrick vs Kemi Badenoch

How he hell has UK politics come down to two people who couldn’t even win an argument in a pub?

….. and no, we never talk politics in the pub……

In particular, Kemi would lose an argument even if she wasn't arguing with anyone.

 

[Acfb]

I think Badenoch will win this fairly narrowly by something like 55-45. I'm basing this on the fact that Truss only got 57.4% against Sunak.

Hypothetical polling has come out that says Jenrick would deny Labour a majority but Labour would still have a majority of 14 if Badenoch is leader. Some difference but maybe will not be decisive enough with the Tory membership. Also hypothetical polling looks a bit dodgy. Labour loses 100 seats under Jenrick but the Tories only gain 57 seats under him?

 

[3141]

I think Badenoch will win this fairly narrowly by something like 55-45. I'm basing this on the fact that Truss only got 57.4% against Sunak.

Hypothetical polling has come out that says Jenrick would deny Labour a majority but Labour would still have a majority of 14 if Badenoch is leader. Some difference but maybe will not be decisive enough with the Tory membership. Also hypothetical polling looks a bit dodgy. Labour loses 100 seats under Jenrick but the Tories only gain 57 seats under him?

Presumably the other lost Labour seats would go to Lib Dems or SNP.

But it all looks extremely hypothetical to me, since the actual circumstances of the next election, such as when, what events have happened between now and then, who are the leaders of the other parties, and much more, will all affect the real outcome.

 

[brad465]

Presumably the other lost Labour seats would go to Lib Dems or SNP.

But it all looks extremely hypothetical to me, since the actual circumstances of the next election, such as when, what events have happened between now and then, who are the leaders of the other parties, and much more, will all affect the real outcome.

What was notable about the 2019-24 period in respect to party leaders, was that not one party who won seats in 2019 had the same leader for the 2024 election, except in Northern Ireland.



== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Oct 2024 ==

Now the Tories are out of government, I wouldn't be surprised if more stories like this come out in the coming months, knowing they can't do any serious damage while out of government and a long way from another election:

Suella Braverman sent government documents to private email 127 times

The emails, sent while she was attorney general, could amount to a breach of the ministerial code.

www.bbc.co.uk

Suella Braverman forwarded government documents to her private email accounts at least 127 times while she was attorney general in a potential breach of the ministerial code, it has emerged.

The revelation came after a Freedom of Information campaign by the Times newspaper.
The Conservative, who was in the Cabinet role under Boris Johnson, and the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) did not respond to requests for comment.
For security reasons, ministers are banned from sending sensitive emails and documents to their private accounts.
As attorney general, the chief legal adviser to the government, Braverman dealt with highly sensitive matters of state.
But between 2021 and 2022, she forwarded 127 emails to her private accounts, with the emails containing at least 290 documents.
The contents of the emails are not yet publicly known.
The information was revealed after an 18-month transparency battle by the Times and a ruling by a tribunal judge.
The AGO had refused to answer the Times' Freedom of Information request about Braverman's emails, saying it would be too costly to search her ministerial inbox.
In a ruling, external, Judge Simon Heald said “it appears to us that the AGO initially went about finding private email account details in a convoluted way”, which was “not a sensible way to start”.
He said the AGO could, "using the tools available in Outlook, answer the request with relative ease".
During the period in question, Braverman took the BBC to the High Court in a bid to stop the publication of a story about an abusive MI5 agent.
She was one of those formally investigated by a leak inquiry when secret details of the court case were passed to the Daily Telegraph in January 2022.
She was later appointed home secretary, but had to resign when it emerged she had sent an official document to a parliamentary colleague using her personal email.
She later admitted sending official correspondence to her private email account on six more occasions.
After becoming home secretary once again, she was sacked last year by then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for comments in a newspaper article accusing the Metropolitan Police of bias in the policing of protests.
She said police applied a “double standard” by being tougher with right-wing demonstrations than pro-Palestinian ones.
Braverman remains an MP and influential figure in sections of the Conservative Party.