UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[Thirteen]

I always thought the Conservatives going to third place was unlikely simply because there are people who will only vote Tory.

 

[ainsworth74]

They aren't really. The number of labour seats is less than 1997 and there seems no prospect of the Conservatives moving into third place, which would actually have been incredible. This is 'below par' for me given what polls were indicating.

It's the lowest Tory seat total in their history as a party dating back to 1834, its the sixth largest majority in history just behind 1997 and just in front of 2001 and really it's fifth seeing as the highest majority ever was the 1931 National Government which was quite an odd ball really, and they've turned around their own worst performance since the 1930s in a single electoral cycle. It's pretty damn extraordinary even if it doesn't live up to some of the more extreme pre-election polls.

 

[JamesT]

yup its really wrong no way Reform have 13 or SNP down to 10 - people on exit polls will mislead the questioner

According to https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/ the exit poll is effectively a second ballot, precisely to avoid bias from talking to a pollster.

 

[hexagon789]

Sky has this showing the Scottish seats:

 

[renegademaster]

I'd be very cautious about Reform's exit numbers. I would suspect that their voters would be far more likely to announce their voting preference to exit pollsters than swing voters going to Labour. I expect their numbers to be far less than forecast.

I thought it would be the opposite, conspiracy minded people aren't going to be telling the tellers who they voted for.

I think theirs a bit of wishful thinking in this thread

 

[DynamicSpirit]

According to https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/ the exit poll is effectively a second ballot, precisely to avoid bias from talking to a pollster.

I would assume, that the main issue that could hurt accuracy (besides, whether their samples are sufficiently representative) is that the exit poll can't cover people who vote by post.

Also, they are quoting seat numbers, and those are going to very sensitive to the precise geographical distribution of votes. I'd expect the exit poll to be rather more accurate for % vote share than for numbers of seats.

 

[Bantamzen]

I thought it would be the opposite, conspiracy minded people aren't going to be telling the tellers who they voted for.

I think theirs a bit of wishful thinking in this thread

Honestly I disagree, I'd say they are the people most likely to announce their voting preference. And social media plus earlier polls potentially demonstrates exactly this.

 

[renegademaster]

exit poll can't cover people who vote by post.

Which way has this been historically biased?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Sky has this showing the Scottish seats:

View attachment 161291

Text version sorted by party and counted (written rapidly by hand, sorry any errors, there's probably at least a few)

31 seats - Airdrie, Ayr, Ayrshire C, Ayrshire N, Bathgate, Coatbridge, Cowdenbeath, Cumbernauld, Dunb'shire W, Dunfermline, East Kilbridge, Edinburgh (East, North, South and South West), Glasgow (East, North, North East, South, South West and West), Hamilton, Inverclyde, Livingston, Lothian East, Midlothian, Motherwelll, Na h-Eileanan, Paisley Ren N, Paisley Ren S, Renf'shire E, Rutherglen

12 seats - Aberdeen S, Aberdeenshire North, Aberdeenshire West, Angus, Argyll, Berwickshire, Dumfries, Dumfriesshire, Gordon, Moray W, Perth, Stirling

5 seats, Caithness, Dunb'shire M, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Orkney & Shetlands

7 seats - Aberdeen N, Alloa & Gm'th, Arbroath, Dundee C, Falkirk, Inverness, Kilmarnock

 

[Thirteen]

The exit poll for Islington North is too close to call, I think it'll either be a small win for Corbyn or a small win for Labour.

 

[johntea]

Steve Baker is probably regretting saying 'sure I'll be on your BBC panel!'

 

[renegademaster]

The exit poll for Islington North is too close to call, I think it'll either be a small win for Corbyn or a small win for Labour.

Suspect it's the other in the BBC poll for when you subtract the Northern Ireland seats. The alternative would be Galloway which would be less likely

 

[JonathanH]

Steve Baker is probably regretting saying 'sure I'll be on your BBC panel!'

He was there because he had an agenda to get across. Seems like he would have been happy to be there knowing that he had little chance of retaining his seat.

 

[JamesT]

Which way has this been historically biased?

The article I linked to in #33 suggests postal voting doesn't affect the accuracy of the exit polls massively. The exit polls are looking at the change in votes compared to last time. As long as postal voters change in a similar manner to in-person voters then it's still a valid sample to extrapolate from.

 

[takno]

Text version sorted by party and counted (written rapidly by hand, sorry any errors, there's probably at least a few)

Doesn't the main exit poll say 10 for the SNP?

 

[JamesT]

Honestly I disagree, I'd say they are the people most likely to announce their voting preference. And social media plus earlier polls potentially demonstrates exactly this.

Rather than the loudest, the issue with an exit poll would be if a particular type of voter was more likely to refuse to take part in the exit poll than average.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Doesn't the main exit poll say 10 for the SNP?

Indeed it does, but that picture only has 7 yellow boxes

 

[hexagon789]

Doesn't the main exit poll say 10 for the SNP?

The BBC one yes, Sky has them on 7.

The BBC has the Conservatives on 11 in Scotland, Sky has them on 12.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

Indeed it does, but that picture only has 7 yellow boxes

That's the Sky exit poll.

 

[jamieintercity]

Sky are predicting that 30p Lee could lose his Ashfield seat and Andrew brigden could also lose his seat. Ben habib is not expected to win his seat

 

[takno]

The BBC one yes, Sky has them on 7.

The BBC has the Conservatives on 11 in Scotland, Sky has them on 12.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==


That's the Sky exit poll.

Ahh fair enough. Sky has shared the last few exit polls. Didn't know they'd gone their own way this time

 

[JamesT]

Ahh fair enough. Sky has shared the last few exit polls. Didn't know they'd gone their own way this time

I believe the three companies commission the exit poll jointly. But a BBC article on exit polling mentions 'BBC analysts', so perhaps they do different things with the raw numbers?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Ahh fair enough. Sky has shared the last few exit polls. Didn't know they'd gone their own way this time

From what I can see on Sky's website, they're echoing the BBC, not sure where the Scottish Constituencies came from

We've gotten 52 posts in a single hour, is that a new record for the forums?
Either way, I'll see you all in the morning for the results.

 

[brad465]

I'd be very cautious about Reform's exit numbers. I would suspect that their voters would be far more likely to announce their voting preference to exit pollsters than swing voters going to Labour. I expect their numbers to be far less than forecast.

Sir John Curtice has backed this up somewhat by saying the SNP and Reform numbers should be cautioned due to less data on these.

 

[JamesT]

Sunderland South win the race for the first declaration. Labour hold, but Reform second ahead of the Conservatives.

 

[PGAT]

3.3% swing Lab to Ref

 

[Bald Rick]

Low turnout in Sunderland…. nevertheless over 11,000 people voted for Reform. My flabber is gasted.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

The exit poll for Islington North is too close to call, I think it'll either be a small win for Corbyn or a small win for Labour.

Almost certainly. The other (five) contenders in this constituency were 100-1 outsiders (if not higher odds).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Turnout 51% - that's extraordinarily low.

BBC saying Labour +7% in share of vote. That's not brilliant, but is OK and if repeated nationally would put Labour on 39% of the vote (was 32% in 2019(

 

[johntea]

Just as I was thinking what an excellent job the BBC were doing with their coverage...

"We can now cross to JRM!"

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Just as I was thinking what an excellent job the BBC were doing with their coverage...

"We can now cross to JRM!"

At least hes only be talked to C4 have sold out with Nadine Dories, Kwasi Kwarteng, Anne Widdicombe and Nadhim Zahawi all in the studio