UK General Election 2024

[Cross City]

Simple. Despite all the media reports suggesting the economy is tanking, I don't believe the government is responsible for much of it.

You were awake for Liz Truss right?

 

[Donny Dave]

You were awake for Liz Truss right?

I was. And the markets and economy have not only recovered, but have got (a little) better from her 7 weeks as PM.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Well I have a feeling this won't go down too well with some but reform have my support this time. I didn't make my mind up until this morning but honestly they are the only ones currently talking sense to me and let's be honest. The slightly unhygienic media whore that is Nigel farage isn't going to stick around long-term, once he realises that simply sticking on some '90s eurodance and some cheap electrical shop flashing lights doesn't bring out every slimy journalist from miles around. He'll disappear and spread his filth somewhere else leaving. I would guess a largely more moderate bunch of newly elected MPS to get on with the job

 

[3141]

The poll on this thread has had six members stating that they are voting Conservative. Would any of those six (at the time of writing) be able to explain their reasoning?

I'm not one of the six, but I'll try to explain why one might vote Conservative.

When you're voting, there are many things to take into consideration, and some are in conflict with one another. You may want a change of government, as I do. You may have a good and hard-working Conservative MP (as we have here, and he's been urging us not to replace him with an unknown quantity). He had 62% of the vote in 2019, and forecasts suggest he will narrowly hold the seat this time. If I vote for a change of government, by supporting another candidate, which one should it be? Not Reform. Maybe the LD. Probably not the Green. All those three, to varying extents, have set out in their leaflets some quite unrealistic offerings, knowing that they won't actually have to deliver them. Maybe Labour, which will have to get to work and start delivering something. With the mood of the electorate as it is, I'll almost certainly get a change of government however I vote. If the Conservatives lose here, I'll lose a good MP who'll be replaced by someone who tells me how good they will be, but I cannot be certain. Also, I think that a necessary feature of democracy is that there should be an opposition which is capable of challenging the government so that it does not push through changes without regard for any side-effects. (Whether a much-reduced Conservative Party still fighting within its ranks could do that may be questionable, but who else could do it? The SNP?) So there are reasons to keep a good MP and possibly a half-effective opposition. Unlike some posters here I'm not so hostile to Conservatives as to want to exterminate them, which seems undemocratic.

We'll be going to the polling station this afternoon.

 

[DarloRich]

I was. And the markets and economy have not only recovered, but have got (a little) better from her 7 weeks as PM.

bully for the stockbroking spivs. My mortgage hasn't got better.................

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

So there are reasons to keep a good MP and possibly a half-effective opposition. Unlike some posters here I'm not so hostile to Conservatives as to want to exterminate them, which seems undemocratic.

Respecting your views - I simply don't understand how you can look at the Tories and think, yep, more of that please! Don't fall for this "Super majority" bunkum. It is odd how Tories are suddenly interested in "effective opposition" when they are on the end of a defeat!

PS I DESPISE the Tories. I do that naturally but the behaviour of the "Tory" party under Johnson, Truss and Sunak deserves censure. It has been nothing short of disgusting and anyone who facilitated that, even if they are a decent local MP, deserves the boot.

How you can vote for them is beyond me!

 

[bavvo]

Interestingly I've noticed (or rather not noticed) that the usual posters in windows are conspicuous by their absence this year. In previous years (I live in a Labour constituency) many windows have had "Vote Labour" posters with some promoting other parties. This year absolutely nothing.

Probably depends how much of a competition there is locally. Where I am there is a large number of LibDem signs on poles in peoples gardens, plus posters in windows, much more than ever before, as its now regarded as a key marginal. The Tories who used to dominate here have only managed a handful of either, and I've seen just 1 for the Greens. Nothing for any other party.

I do worry that the greater polarisation in politics we have seen might be making some more nervous about advertising their politics to neighbours and passers by, and I have seen reports of LibDem signs being stolen and Tory signs being vandalised.

 

[daveo]

Belatedly, the Sun has been forced to recognise reality and back Labour. That might just make the difference in a handful of marginal seats.

Doubt it will make much difference in Liverpool

 

[david1212]

Why do we need the Conservatives to be an effective opposition? They have completely destroyed any credibility they might have once had. Arguably we need consensus politics to try and rebuild.

Taking consensus politics first indeed but in reality it will never happen.
Given the expected result for the next term a motion can be easily be passed if not only non of the combined opposition agree but a significant proportion of the governing party disagree too.

Looking ahead to the next general electection there needs to be at least one other party seen as capable of forming a government. If the Conservatives & Lib Dems have a similar number of seats both are highly likely to be well short of the 150 suggested as required for an effective opposition. Even if the Lib Dems are the second largest party what I do not forsee, but could be proved wrong, is them having 150+ seats.

 

[Kaliwax]

I'm just a bit surprised Blindtraveller would say he's voted for Reform! I thought Reform would be the worst party to vote for if you disabled, as they very rarely mentioned at all in their contract and they are worse than the tories when it comes to Welfare. 4 months to find a job, seems a bit mad to me, especially if you are disabled and not in the light touch work groups!

 

[skyhigh]

Interestingly I've noticed (or rather not noticed) that the usual posters in windows are conspicuous by their absence this year. In previous years (I live in a Labour constituency) many windows have had "Vote Labour" posters with some promoting other parties. This year absolutely nothing.

Huge number of posters and signs here. Many more than previous years I've lived here.

 

[DarloRich]

I would guess a largely more moderate bunch of newly elected MPS to get on with the job

Is that a serious post? Farage isn't going to go away. His life is publicity. The only way he leaves reform is that he merges/consumes/destroys the Tories and becomes leader of the remains. There wont be any "moderate" reform MP's. They are cranks.

 

[Cross City]

I'm just a bit surprised Blindtraveller would say he's voted for Reform! I thought Reform would be the worst party to vote for if you disabled

They called an autistic kid a "vegetable", I'm shocked any disabled person could vote for them.

 

[DarloRich]

they are the only ones currently talking sense to me and let's be honest.

what are they talking sense about? They haven't got any actual policies!

 

[Kaliwax]

what are they talking sense about? They haven't got any actual policies!

I'm just shocked he'd vote for them, as I'm sure Reform would get rid of the Equality Act as the first thing they'd do!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

They called an autistic kid a "vegetable", I'm shocked any disabled person could vote for them.

The same person has restricted his X Account as well, typical of the right, only free speech when it suits them!

 

[takno]

I'm just a bit surprised Blindtraveller would say he's voted for Reform! I thought Reform would be the worst party to vote for if you disabled, as they very rarely mentioned at all in their contract and they are worse than the tories when it comes to Welfare. 4 months to find a job, seems a bit mad to me, especially if you are disabled and not in the light touch work groups!

Disability encompasses a wide range of different things, and a wide range of impacts on people's lives. Many people who have a disability wouldn't describe themselves as "disabled", and it isn't necessarily what people regard as their key defining feature.

In terms of impacts on life, not everyone is rendered completely unable to work or find work by their disability, and may therefore be confident that welfare policies won't affect them, or may feel that some other policy is going to mitigate that somehow.

I'm not saying that I agree with blindtraveller's choice at all, but frankly as a party they seem so generally hateful to everyone that I'm not sure why anybody would vote for them. It doesn't seem crazily out of line with their previous posts though.

 

[InkyScrolls]

Make that 7....quite simply, in my neck of the woods - NE Scotland - and following the 2005 boundary change, my constituency is very much a two-way fight between SNP and Conservatives. "Battlegrounds" in Scotland are very different to England, Rock & hard place spring to mind but the SNP will never get my vote.

That is indeed a rock and a hard place! A good reason if ever there was one.

 

[JamesT]

bully for the stockbroking spivs. My mortgage hasn't got better.................

Unless you took out your mortgage right after her budget, your mortgage rate has pretty much naff all to do with Truss.
Central banks around the world put up interest rates to combat the inflation everyone is experiencing.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Just gone out to vote in my first General Election, polling station was quite quiet (only 2 other voters in polling station) but that's not a surprise given the time of day.

 

[D1537]

I was. And the markets and economy have not only recovered, but have got (a little) better from her 7 weeks as PM.

I'm sure that those hundreds of thousands of people paying painful amounts more on their mortgages (because Liz and Kwasi's "fiscal event" caused the lenders to pull hundreds of products and sent the base for fixed deals up to 6%) won't be as forgiving.

 

[JonathanH]

Grayling and Blunt's seats (Epsom and Ewell, and Reigate) spring to mind as Tory seats where the incumbents are standing down and are likely to stay Tory.

Central Reigate this lunchtime.

[Picture of a man in a straw hat and sunglasses with a placard saying "Vote Labour here or get Tory again" in the centre of Reigate - the lower part of the placard obscured by a bush shows a graph of polling with Labour in second place.]

 

[DarloRich]

Unless you took out your mortgage right after her budget, your mortgage rate has pretty much naff all to do with Truss.

it has got everything to do with Truss and her bonkers budget. ( and yes, my mortgage was due for renewal around that time)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

Just gone out to vote in my first General Election, polling station was quite quiet (only 2 other voters in polling station) but that's not a surprise given the time of day.

well done - that is a big lifetime milestone.

 

[birchesgreen]

it has got everything to do with Truss and her bonkers budget. ( and yes, my mortgage was due for renewal around that time)

Don't forget the pension funds which were on the brink of collapse and lost billions.

 

[DarloRich]

Don't forget the pension funds which were on the brink of collapse and lost billions.

I am sure the apologists will be along to say that they should have had better management of risk exposure or a less adventurous investment portfolio or something.

We know that Truss crashed the economy off a cliff at the instructions of her Tifton Street handlers and enjoyed doing it!

 

[Donny Dave]

bully for the stockbroking spivs. My mortgage hasn't got better.................

Bit of a mis-characterision about me....

Unless you took out your mortgage right after her budget, your mortgage rate has pretty much naff all to do with Truss.
Central banks around the world put up interest rates to combat the inflation everyone is experiencing.

I'm sure that those hundreds of thousands of people paying painful amounts more on their mortgages (because Liz and Kwasi's "fiscal event" caused the lenders to pull hundreds of products and sent the base for fixed deals up to 6%) won't be as forgiving.

As I explained earlier, interest rates as low as 0.1% are a massive anomaly. Be thankful you didn't have mortgage in the 1970s, as interest rates reached 17%, which again is another anomaly. Mortgage rates now generally lower than the mini budget announced by Kwasi Kwartang, and are predicted to drift lower, no matter who forms the next government.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Is that a serious post? Farage isn't going to go away. His life is publicity. The only way he leaves reform is that he merges/consumes/destroys the Tories and becomes leader of the remains. There wont be any "moderate" reform MP's. They are cranks.

Deadly serious. He's not going to become the official opposition and therefore the publicity spotlight won't be on him for the long term. And in terms of candidates that I have met either on the street or who have come and knocked on my door, the only two that were talking any sense and didn't seem like utter cranks were the greens and reform, I'm certainly not the sort of person that would vote green anytime, although might be persuaded to do so as a tactical vote in something like a local authority election, but not in this context. But ultimately I want a new MP who is in touch with the issues in my local area and the reform candidate was the one who seemed most attuned to this... And Tracy crouch been staying on then I would have voted conservative again for the same reasons of a good local MP, I moved to this constituency in March last year and in the dealings with I've had with her twice have been excellent and friends and neighbours have also had positive experiences. So it's just a shame that she's not seeking re-election

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

what are they talking sense about? They haven't got any actual policies!

They certainly in my local area got the measure of the issues and challenges facing it and not least those that require interventions to perhaps tame or control. The actions of the recently changed hands local council who have been in post little over a year and are doing a spectacular job of breaking public services in an area that once was proud of them. And as I said above, I am on this occasion more concerned about a good MP than anything else, but for the avoidance of doubt no party offering itself for election this time is speaking to me on a national level as they are all ridden with fults and flaws

 

[JamesT]

I am sure the apologists will be along to say that they should have had better management of risk exposure or a less adventurous investment portfolio or something.

We know that Truss crashed the economy off a cliff at the instructions of her Tifton Street handlers and enjoyed doing it!

I know your position is Tories Baaaaad. But that doesn't make those of us dealing in facts apologists.
Interest rates were rising long before Truss took power, did she have a time machine to cause that? Pretty much the entirety of her budget was reversed/never implemented so could not have had an effect on the economy.
The ECB and the Fed were putting up their rates too, did Truss make them do that?

 

[DarloRich]

Mortgage rates now generally lower than the mini budget announced by Kwasi Kwartang, and are predicted to drift lower, no matter who forms the next government.

Are we sure about that. Base rate is 5.25%

He's not going to become the official opposition and therefore the publicity spotlight won't be on him for the long term.

He is the member for Question Time West and he has lost 8 elections! Do you honestly think he wont be invited if elected as an MP? Do you honestly think if invited he will refuse? Do you honestly think that if elected he will simply chuck the towel in after 5 minutes?

the only two that were talking any sense

in touch with the issues in my local area and the reform candidate was the one who seemed most attuned to this

Having lived there for a year what are the issues in your area that Reform are in touch with?

 

[takno]

As I explained earlier, interest rates as low as 0.1% are a massive anomaly. Be thankful you didn't have mortgage in the 1970s, as interest rates reached 17%, which again is another anomaly. Mortgage rates now generally lower than the mini budget announced by Kwasi Kwartang, and are predicted to drift lower, no matter who forms the next government.

The problem is more that people build expectations based on recent history and what politicians say. Mortgage rates of 8-9% were less destructive in the early 90s because mortgages were much smaller, so the total repayments were still less than the amounts people are facing now.

Unfortunately the Tories spent more than 10 years entrenching low interest rates, and running a flat broken economy that needed them to avoid deflation. They thus created the housing bubble at the scale it is and the massive mortgages that go with that. Having done that, it's on them to avoid needing to raise interest rates to a crippling level. Suddenly choosing to remind people that rates used to be much higher in the olden days before they were born frankly isn't helpful.

 

[DarloRich]

Interest rates were rising long before Truss took power, did she have a time machine to cause that? Pretty much the entirety of her budget was reversed/never implemented so could not have had an effect on the economy.
The ECB and the Fed were putting up their rates too, did Truss make them do that?

Interest rate at Truss Budget: 2.25%
Interest rate now: 5.25% ( February 08 was the last time the they were so high irc)

yes institutions were SLOWLY putting up rates at the time. They had risen 1% in 2022. That meant the impact of rises could be factored into an individuals financial planning and the damage spread. After the Truss chaos they went up 1.25% in 3 months and 3% in a year. Now, clearly, you will think that entirely coincidental. I beg to differ.

The fact that "Pretty much the entirety of her budget was reversed/never implemented" was because the financial institutions kicked off so badly she was thrown from office. Even just announcing those plans destroyed the economic stability and credibility of this country. To say otherwise is bizarre! The plans were binned asap by Sunak/Hunt in a desperate damage control moment.

As I explained earlier, interest rates as low as 0.1% are a massive anomaly. Be thankful you didn't have mortgage in the 1970s, as interest rates reached 17%, which again is another anomaly

I agree - in the fullness of time interests are still lower than they generally have been. However, I didn't have a mortgage to pay in 1979 so I don't care. It is like saying window tax was 17% in 1875! I do care when my mortgage percentage rates doubles overnight, in my case almost literally overnight! The person to blame for that was Liz Truss and her Tufton Street cronies.

Defending the indefensible is not a great look.

 

[deltic]

bully for the stockbroking spivs. My mortgage hasn't got better.................

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==


Respecting your views - I simply don't understand how you can look at the Tories and think, yep, more of that please! Don't fall for this "Super majority" bunkum. It is odd how Tories are suddenly interested in "effective opposition" when they are on the end of a defeat!

PS I DESPISE the Tories. I do that naturally but the behaviour of the "Tory" party under Johnson, Truss and Sunak deserves censure. It has been nothing short of disgusting and anyone who facilitated that, even if they are a decent local MP, deserves the boot.

How you can vote for them is beyond me!

The fact that your mortgage hasnt got better is nothing to do with Liz Truss. The impact of her budget was short lived, the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has not been.

Given Labour party policies are virtually no different to those of the Tory party and both are deceiving the electorate about the state of public finances and services and the need for either large tax rises or large public sector cuts, how anyone could vote for either of them is beyond me!