UK General Election 2024

[MotCO]

"set aside" and other such no use/ low intensity farming techniques have long been part of the subsidy/grant regime.

Agree, but when some farms are 'setting aside' 50% or more of their land, surely something is wrong?

 

[DarloRich]

Agree, but when some farms are 'setting aside' 50% or more of their land, surely something is wrong?

reed - it could be worked out though and need a rest!

 

[OuterDistant]

I see Rishi Sunak has cast his vote. Although he's been so inept, it was probably for Labour.

 

[JonathanH]

Someone may have told me previously, but I've fogotten, and couldn't find an answer on any site - how many days after Thursday can postal votes be received and still be valid for the count?

They need to be received by 10pm. That is when the poll closes. Any received after that won't be counted. The first results will be declared around an hour after polls close.

 

[gg1]

I assume there will be very, very few (if any) Conservative gains this time round, so any new entrants would be limited to those standing in seats that stay Tory but have the incumbent standing down. Are there any of them?

Is it possible they could gain a seat or two from the SNP?

Polling suggest large losses for the SNP too, and the Scottish Tory party give the impression of being more moderate and less divided than their Westminster counterparts.

 

[dgl]

Indeed, before the credit crunch and the aftermath of austerity, it was really only a few hard right-wingers banging on about immigration. It seemed to be sometime during the Cameron-Osborne austerity years that it started becoming "fashionable" amongst certain demographics to get into immigrant-bashing. If I had to put a date on it, probably late 2012/early 2013; it seemed to happen sometime between the London Olympics of 2012 and the Eastleigh by-election (local to me, saw a lot of the posters) in early 2013 which saw a large UKIP vote and, as a result. the Tories failing to gain the seat, at least for a while.

Your observation about citizenship and how it's more difficult to get it now compared to the Blair years suggests that the "hostile environment" of recent Tory governments isn't restricted to the EU or asylum-seekers either, but any other country, besides Ireland.

When you've got no answers blame someone else, "no it's not because they don't want to do low paid physically demanding jobs it's because of all them immigrants stealing the jobs for us true English people"

 

[nw1]

These are the favourites and 2nd favourites with the odds from Oddschecker

	Constituency	Favourite	2nd Favourite
Chris Grayling	Epsom and Ewell	Liberal Democrats (4/5)	Conservatives (6/5)
Matt Hancock	Suffolk West	Labour (3/5)	Conservatives (13/8)
Liz Truss	South West Norfolk	Labour (8/11)	Conservatives (11/8)
Richi Sunak	Richmond and North Allerton	Conservatives (2/5)	Labour (3/1)
Suella Braverman	Fareham & Waterlooville	Conservatives (1/2)	Labour (5/2)
Penny Mordaunt	Portsmouth North	Labour (8/15)	Conservatives (7/4)
Nigel Farage	Clacton	Reform (1/7)	Conservatives (8/1)
Richard Tice	Boston and Skegness	Reform (evens)	Conservatives (6/4)
Jacob Rees Mogg	Somerset North East & Hanham	Labour (1/5)	Conservatives (7/2)

Interesting, so only Sunak (predictable) and Braverman (sadly) are favourites to hold these seats for the Tories.

Interesting to see the strong possibility of the red flag flying over the flat fields of rural East Anglia!

 

[SuspectUsual]

I didn't realise until I read it just now that only 65 of the 650 constituencies are geographically unchanged since the 2019 election. Obviously some have changed more than others

 

[ainsworth74]

They need to be received by 10pm. That is when the poll closes. Any received after that won't be counted.

Though if a lot of postal votes in a specific constituency don't arrive until after polling day due to delays in the Royal Mail and the result is close in that constituency, standby for legal challenges in my view.

The first results will be declared around an hour after polls close.

Worth noting that typically there are one or two seats that declare around an hour after polls close (typically the Sunderland seats which have an machine like operation which makes for good TV) and then there will be a lull for around two/three hours until sort of around 2am at which point the results will start to flow in in an ever increasing number.

Anyone wanting to catch a nap the best time is from after the exit poll until around 2am!

 

[nw1]

Though if a lot of postal votes in a specific constituency don't arrive until after polling day due to delays in the Royal Mail and the result is close in that constituency, standby for legal challenges in my view.

Worth noting that typically there are one or two seats that declare around an hour after polls close (typically the Sunderland seats which have an machine like operation which makes for good TV) and then there will be a lull for around two/three hours until sort of around 2am at which point the results will start to flow in in an ever increasing number.

Anyone wanting to catch a nap the best time is from after the exit poll until around 2am!

Wondering when the first "interesting" results will come in? The first few always seem to be Sunderland or Newcastle, which will be fairly predictable Labour holds though the swing might be interesting.

I'm out of the UK on the continent at the moment, which makes 'staying up late' a but difficult; so thinking of maybe getting up early at 4am-5am UK time. Will there still be results coming in then, or will 2am-4am be the really 'interesting' time?

 

[WesternLancer]

The poll on this thread has had six members stating that they are voting Conservative. Would any of those six (at the time of writing) be able to explain their reasoning?

With any vote if you watch the ballot papers it's obvious that some voters stray their cross in the wrong place by mistake - just the law of averages. Easy to do if voting here on a small screen phone I guess

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

Though if a lot of postal votes in a specific constituency don't arrive until after polling day due to delays in the Royal Mail and the result is close in that constituency, standby for legal challenges in my view.

Such a challenge would only get anywhere is the size of the majority was smaller than the number of postal votes that arrived with the returning officer in the constituency concerned after 10pm tonight - the number of constituencies where that will happen will be slim IMHO - and even then you'd have to prove you posted it early enough to have been delivered by the royal mail delivery standard for 1st class which is not a guaranteed delivery - few if any will have that proof.

It has been stated that Royal mail are doing a pillar box sweep at about 5pm today to get any PVs from them and get them to returning officers by 10pm - OK that won't get a PV posted today from say Brum to a Returning |Officer in Newcastle I doubt, but it would get one from a neighbourhood in Brum to the Brum returning officer, as an example.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

They need to be received by 10pm. That is when the poll closes. Any received after that won't be counted. The first results will be declared around an hour after polls close.

Indeed. 0 days (or even 0 minutes) after close of poll (edit) apols I meant to reply to the question not to your accurate and clear answer!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

Already been and voted to get it out of the way. I voted for the Green Party, voted for the party with the policies that would benefit me and my group the most.

Glad to hear you weighed it all up and decided who you wanted to go with - that's what today is all about!

 

[JonathanH]

Will there still be results coming in then, or will 2am-4am be the really 'interesting' time?

There is a list here, which is too long for me to quote in full.

Estimated declaration times of General Election results: Chronological list

Most results are likely to be declared between 2am and 4am.

www.standard.co.uk

Here is an updated list of estimated declaration times for the results of the 2024 General Election.

The list is based on information compiled by the PA news agency and is intended to be a guide to when the 650 constituency results are likely to be declared.

All timings are approximate and can be affected by issues such as delays in verifying and counting ballots, or by recounts.

There have been substantial boundary changes at this election and this means there is considerable uncertainty around some of timings below.

The list is arranged by the estimated time of declaration, starting with the earliest.

Thursday July 4

11.30pm:– Blyth & Ashington

11.45am:– Houghton & Sunderland South

Friday July 5

12.15am:– Basildon & Billericay– Swindon South

12.30am:– Broxbourne– Sunderland Central

12.45am:– Cramlington & Killingworth– Washington & Gateshead South

1am:– Makerfield– Rutherglen– Tynemouth– Wigan

1.15am:– Newcastle upon Tyne Central & West– Newcastle upon Tyne East & Wallsend– Newcastle upon Tyne North

1.30am:– Barnsley North– Barnsley South– East Kilbride & Strathaven– Leigh & Atherton– Putney– Tooting

1.45am:– Hamilton & Clyde Valley– Harrogate & Knaresborough– Leicester South– Swindon North

2am:– Cambridgeshire North West– Castle Point– Darlington– Dunbartonshire West– Dundee Central– Essex North West– Gateshead Central & Whickham– Glenrothes & Mid Fife– Havant– Hexham– Leicester East– Lewisham East– Lewisham West & East Dulwich– Middlesbrough & Thornaby East– Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland– North Down– Peterborough– Redcar– South Shields– Strangford– Swansea West– Torbay– Tyrone West– Warwickshire North & Bedworth

2.15am:– Gower– Knowsley– Leicester West– Paisley & Renfrewshire South– Rayleigh & Wickford

2.30am:– Arbroath & Broughty Ferry– Battersea– Blackburn– Caerphilly– Cannock Chase– Chorley– Clwyd North– Colchester– Durham North– Easington– Fylde– Heywood & Middleton North– Holborn & St Pancras– Jarrow & Gateshead East– Kilmarnock & Loudoun– Leeds West & Pudsey– Lewisham North– Newport West & Islwyn– Norwich South– Nottingham East– Nottingham South– Pendle & Clitheroe– Perth & Kinross-shire– Rochdale– Stratford-on-Avon– Vale of Glamorgan

2.45am:– Aldershot– Bedfordshire Mid– Bolsover– Burnley– Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard– Hampstead & Highgate– Harlow– Paisley & Renfrewshire North

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3am:– Aberdeen North– Aberdeen South– Airdrie & Shotts– Alloa & Grangemouth– Alyn & Deeside– Amber Valley– Antrim East– Bangor Aberconwy– Belfast East– Belfast North– Belfast West– Bexhill & Battle– Blackpool South– Bolton North East– Bolton South & Walkden– Bolton West– Bootle– Bracknell– Brent East– Brent West– Canterbury– Carlisle– Chelsea & Fulham– Cheltenham– Cheshire Mid– Chester North & Neston– Chingford & Woodford Green– Corby & East Northamptonshire– Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy– Crawley– Droitwich & Evesham– Dudley– Dwyfor Meirionnydd– Eastleigh– Edmonton & Winchmore Hill– Ellesmere Port & Bromborough– Enfield North– Epping Forest– Epsom & Ewell– Erewash– Fareham & Waterlooville– Fife North East– Forest of Dean– Glasgow North– Gloucester– Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes– Great Yarmouth– Halesowen– Hamble Valley– Hammersmith & Chiswick– Hinckley & Bosworth– Hull East– Huntingdon– Ipswich– Isle of Wight East– Isle of Wight West– Islington North– Islington South & Finsbury– Leyton & Wanstead– Lichfield– Londonderry East– Luton South & South Bedfordshire– Mansfield– Meriden & Solihull East– Midlothian– Mitcham & Morden– Na h-Eileanan an Iar– Newark– Newport East– Nuneaton– Oxford East– Pontypridd– Reading Central– Rhondda & Ogmore– Romford– Romsey & Southampton North– Runcorn & Helsby– Rushcliffe– Sefton Central– Shrewsbury– Skipton & Ripon– Smethwick– Solihull West & Shirley– South Ribble– Southend East & Rochford– Southend West & Leigh– Southgate & Wood Green– St Helens North– St Helens South & Whiston– Stevenage– Stockton West– Stourbridge– Telford– Thanet East– Tipton & Wednesbury– Torfaen– Ulster Mid– Walthamstow– Watford– West Bromwich– Whitehaven & Workington– Widnes & Halewood– Worcester– Wrekin, The– Wrexham– Ynys Mon

3.15am:– Bristol Central– Caerfyrddin– Eltham & Chislehurst– Erith & Thamesmead– Gosport– Hayes & Harlington– Kingston & Surbiton– Llanelli– Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare– Northumberland North– Renfrewshire East– Scunthorpe– Stroud– Witney

 

[D1024]

The poll on this thread has had six members stating that they are voting Conservative. Would any of those six (at the time of writing) be able to explain their reasoning?

Make that 7....quite simply, in my neck of the woods - NE Scotland - and following the 2005 boundary change, my constituency is very much a two-way fight between SNP and Conservatives. "Battlegrounds" in Scotland are very different to England, Rock & hard place spring to mind but the SNP will never get my vote.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Indeed, before the credit crunch and the aftermath of austerity, it was really only a few hard right-wingers banging on about immigration.

That will because the credit crunch happened to coincide with the period when immigration first started rising to levels that would cause concern. Up until about 2005, net migration levels were small, which meant that immigration was unlikely to be an issue, other than to a small number of people ideologically opposed to immigration. From 2005 onwards was roughly when net inward migration rose to levels sufficient to start putting pressure on infrastructure and communities, at which point it than became an issue of practical concern to many people in the political mainstream.

 

[takno]

Is it possible they could gain a seat or two from the SNP?

Polling suggest large losses for the SNP too, and the Scottish Tory party give the impression of being more moderate and less divided than their Westminster counterparts.

It's possible, but not especially likely. They were comparatively sane and moderate in Scotland at the last election and got a highish seat tally then.

Since then they've got a really unpopular leader who has effectively had to soft-resign during the election campaign. At the same time Labour have staged a strong recovery, so there is no need for the really passionate anti-independence crowd to lend their votes to the Tories. Arguably the SNP's collapse has also been in their progressive support - people who abandoned them for the Conservatives may be much more comfortable with the rather dull traditionalist SNP which is now in place.

Overall the Scottish Conservatives are reasonably likely to lose half their seats, and there's been a rather unseemly effort by existing MPs to ensure they are standing in the winnable ones.

 

[jfollows]

They need to be received by 10pm. That is when the poll closes. Any received after that won't be counted. The first results will be declared around an hour after polls close.

Unlike the USA where certain categories of vote can be received after polling day, such as overseas military votes. I suspect "USA" is wrong here because it's likely to differ by state, actually.

 

[WesternLancer]

Make that 7....quite simply, in my neck of the woods - NE Scotland - and following the 2005 boundary change, my constituency is very much a two-way fight between SNP and Conservatives. "Battlegrounds" in Scotland are very different to England, Rock & hard place spring to mind but the SNP will never get my vote.

and full respect to that.

 

[bavvo]

No, well not from my lot anyway Of course, something may turn up in the morning....

I was wrong, I did get another LD leaflet this morning! Leaving nothing to chance.

 

[jfollows]

I didn't realise until I read it just now that only 65 of the 650 constituencies are geographically unchanged since the 2019 election. Obviously some have changed more than others

The process was disastrously held up by the stupid idea from the coalition government to reduce the number of constituencies from 650 to 600. Imagine the bun fight between sitting MPs if this had come to pass. Unfortunately the Boundaries Commission had to work out all the new seats, and consult, and so on. The legislation to enable this never actually came to pass. So by the time the whole thing was reset, the work had to be done again but with 650 constituencies still, which was still a bit of work, and you now see the result.

 

[WesternLancer]

I was wrong, I did get another LD leaflet this morning! Leaving nothing to chance.

they are obv working hard!

 

[Ediswan]

Though if a lot of postal votes in a specific constituency don't arrive until after polling day due to delays in the Royal Mail and the result is close in that constituency, standby for legal challenges in my view.

Royal Mail have consistently stated that the problems with postal votes are not down delays in their system.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm out of the UK on the continent at the moment, which makes 'staying up late' a but difficult; so thinking of maybe getting up early at 4am-5am UK time. Will there still be results coming in then, or will 2am-4am be the really 'interesting' time?

There will certainly still be results coming in around 4am to 5am but it's hard to say. Typically 2am is when the results start to come through in serious numbers and it accelerates over the next hour or so. 3am to 4am is probably the peak of the rush. But, of course, mileage will vary!

Such a challenge would only get anywhere is the size of the majority was smaller than the number of postal votes that arrived with the returning officer in the constituency concerned after 10pm tonight - the number of constituencies where that will happen will be slim IMHO - and even then you'd have to prove you posted it early enough to have been delivered by the royal mail delivery standard for 1st class which is not a guaranteed delivery - few if any will have that proof.

But if the envelopes have post marks that clearly show they were posted well in advance of July 4 (say June 28) that would be clear evidence that the vote was made in good time to get returning officer but failed due to issues with the Royal Mail.

To be clear, I'm not saying that this will happen and that such a legal challenge will succeed even. But I certainly wouldn't rule out a tight race where the margin is say a few hundred and it comes to light that there were say a 1,000 postal votes that arrived in July 5 at the returning officer that a legal challenge wouldn't be mounted by the losing party.

Royal Mail have consistently stated that the problems with postal votes are not down delays in their system.

And considering the issues I, and others, have with the post being delivered I frankly don't believe a word they're saying. The Royal Mail is clearly failing to deliver post on time across large sections of the country and any attempt to claim otherwise is laughable.

 

[jfollows]

Royal Mail have consistently stated that the problems with postal votes are not down delays in their system.

I think a lot of the problems stemmed from councils being unable to handle late requests for a postal vote well. Those like mine, who've had a postal vote registered for years, went fine, but those that were correctly made within the deadlines caused some councils major problems. So they were late in sending them out.

 

[Ediswan]

But if the envelopes have post marks that clearly show they were posted well in advance of July 4 (say June 28) that would be clear evidence that the vote was made in good time to get returning officer but failed due to issues with the Royal Mail.

Looking at online images, there is no dated post mark, as is the way with much 'business' mail these days.

 

[WesternLancer]

But if the envelopes have post marks that clearly show they were posted well in advance of July 4 (say June 28) that would be clear evidence that the vote was made in good time to get returning officer but failed due to issues with the Royal Mail.

To be clear, I'm not saying that this will happen and that such a legal challenge will succeed even. But I certainly wouldn't rule out a tight race where the margin is say a few hundred and it comes to light that there were say a 1,000 postal votes that arrived in July 5 at the returning officer that a legal challenge wouldn't be mounted by the losing party.

Yes, that would be the sort of evidence worthy of action (but do they frank postage paid envelopes with dates / times anymore now I think about it?)

Indeed if 1,000 type numbers in one constituency turned up then yes it would be a significant issue worthy of some sort of investigation (by the returning officer if no one else) but I very much doubt we'd be talking those sorts of numbers. A handful is possible though...

will be interesting if the stats get published on late returned PVs - I'd expect the Electoral Commission to ask for them - they ask councils for quite a bit of other data - like numbers turned away for no ID on them and of those numbers how many come back again with ID

Mind you, depending on the seats concerned if this happened and it was pinned on Royal Mail maybe they would get renationalised rather sharpish. That wouldn't be a bad think IMHO

Mind you posted a 2nd class letter on Monday morning to a destination 300 miles away and the recipient phoned me up Wednesday having received it, so the system has not totally fallen apart...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jul 2024 ==

I think a lot of the problems stemmed from councils being unable to handle late requests for a postal vote well. Those like mine, who've had a postal vote registered for years, went fine, but those that were correctly made within the deadlines caused some councils major problems. So they were late in sending them out.

This is possible - kind of what happens when you ask councils to operate on austerity funding for 14 years and they make lots of staff redundant, or delete vacant posts on people's retirement etc but you don't change the obligations you expect them to carry out...

 

[gg1]

It's possible, but not especially likely. They were comparatively sane and moderate in Scotland at the last election and got a highish seat tally then.

Since then they've got a really unpopular leader who has effectively had to soft-resign during the election campaign. At the same time Labour have staged a strong recovery, so there is no need for the really passionate anti-independence crowd to lend their votes to the Tories. Arguably the SNP's collapse has also been in their progressive support - people who abandoned them for the Conservatives may be much more comfortable with the rather dull traditionalist SNP which is now in place.

Overall the Scottish Conservatives are reasonably likely to lose half their seats, and there's been a rather unseemly effort by existing MPs to ensure they are standing in the winnable ones.

Interesting, thanks. I wasn't aware Douglass Ross was especially unpopular (by Tory standards) in Scotland.

 

[nw1]

There is a list here, which is too long for me to quote in full.

OK thanks, so 3am UK time looks a key point to be up for.

Swindon South is the first interesting one but I guess I'll be sleeping at that time.

 

[Yew]

That will because the credit crunch happened to coincide with the period when immigration first started rising to levels that would cause concern. Up until about 2005, net migration levels were small, which meant that immigration was unlikely to be an issue, other than to a small number of people ideologically opposed to immigration. From 2005 onwards was roughly when net inward migration rose to levels sufficient to start putting pressure on infrastructure and communities, at which point it than became an issue of practical concern to many people in the political mainstream.

I also feel that there has been a push to blame the side effects of deindustrialisation, privitisation and austerity on immigration.

 

[D6130]

Just a thought: Since 06 00 this morning we have been in 'Purdah'....the period during which the mainstream media are forbidden to discuss the details of the election campaign, the different parties' proposed policies, etc. Does that prohibition also apply to internet fora such as this one?

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

Question from down under.

Do your polling stations have democracy sausages?