Time to select your potential 'Portillo moment' on 5th July

[AlterEgo]

I am wondering whether Jeremy Corbyn will find out that voters in his constituency have been voting for Labour all these years rather than himself?

Corbyn will win; he is a popular local candidate and by all accounts - whatever his other faults - is a good constituency MP.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Is Grayling standing? If so I would love him to lose his seat.

 

[DarloRich]

If he doesn't, I expect there to be a byelection soon after.

Exactly!

 

[Gloster]

Is Grayling standing? If so I would love him to lose his seat.

No: he stood down. It has been reported that his successor if the Conservatives retain the seat is definitely of the hard Badenoch-style right.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

No: he stood down. It has been reported that his successor if the Conservatives retain the seat is definitely of the hard Badenoch-style right.

Definitely be happy for that one to lose as well then. !

 

[nw1]

No: he stood down. It has been reported that his successor if the Conservatives retain the seat is definitely of the hard Badenoch-style right.

Had to look up his constituency. Epsom and Ewell (Epsom prior to 1974); Tory since 1885 (seriously) by the looks of it, but maybe it's in an Esher-type situation.

 

[Busaholic]

Corbyn will win; he is a popular local candidate and by all accounts - whatever his other faults - is a good constituency MP.

I'm not so sure about him winning - I saw a poll of a few hundred from his constituency suggesting he might not. I think even some who broadly agree with his politics feel it's time to move on, and he's no crusading Martin Bell.

 

[317 forever]

I can see why so much was made of the Portillo moment, as he was high-profile and a likely candidate for future Tory leader.

However, at least Harrow West had a bigger swing to Labour from a larger Tory majority than Enfield Southgate.

It's hard to know what such moment will arise this time. There have been polls saving the Tories as few as 53 seats, in which case the likes of Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenock or even Rishi Sunak lose their seat. What will be interesting is if there is a noticeably lower swing to Labour than polls currently predict, but a few seats such as theirs or Liz Truss's have a much higher swing than average, leading to their oustings as MPs.

From other parties, Labour's Thangham Debonnaire could lose Bristol Central seat to the Greens. I even wonder whether the LibDems' Daisy Cooper could lose St Albans to Labour. It was Labour in 1997-2005.

 

[nw1]

I even wonder whether the LibDems' Daisy Cooper could lose St Albans to Labour. It was Labour in 1997-2005.

I would doubt that unless she has been a poor MP. Those kinds of Home Counties commuter belt seats are trending Lib Dem and not Labour, and I can't see why tactical voters would desert Lib Dems to vote Labour.

 

[Lampshade]

Iain Duncan Smith is top of my list - though the ex-Labour Independent there will probably split the opposition vote too much.

 

[317 forever]

Iain Duncan Smith is top of my list - though the ex-Labour Independent there will probably split the opposition vote too much.

It would therefore be a spectacular vote against both the main parties if Faiza wins there.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I would doubt that unless she has been a poor MP. Those kinds of Home Counties commuter belt seats are trending Lib Dem and not Labour, and I can't see why tactical voters would desert Lib Dems to vote Labour.

IN my opinion , she is an excellent local MP - personable , engages and very visible in local functions etc. She got in deservedly to replace Anne Main (Conservative) who was very low profile indeed. Labour is not really a contender in SAC , though there have been MP's in the past .....

 

[Lampshade]

It would therefore be a spectacular vote against both the main parties if Faiza wins there.

Can’t disagree there.

 

[Busaholic]

I'm over-ruling the OP and going for two more - Truss and Coffey, potentially ex-PM and her equally useless deputy in almost one go!

 

[Benters]

That pair are high on my list (see my post upthread). Another top contender would be Grant Shapes, a real jumped-up little nobody promoted well beyond his ability.

 

[Gloster]

Although I am more interested in the sheer number of Conservatives who get their just desserts, I would definitely take pleasure in seeing Truss dumped. This wasn’t really on the radar in the first days of the campaign, but now seems to be regarded as at least a possibility if the other parties locally get their act together. Sadly, I feel I am likely to be disappointed as I think the polls are overly optimistic. Still, one can but hope…

 

[m0ffy]

I absolutely agree with you on that. Labour don't deserve to win it. Speaking of results against the flow, I think Ilford North might be more of a struggle for Wes Streeting than might be expected, with the Workers' party expected to make inroads.

Right, having started the thread I'll give you my six choices, a catholic selection tbh and some may surprise you, but I have my reasons for each one.

George Galloway
Ian Paisley Jr.
Andrew Bridgen
Andrew Rossindell
Richard Holden, 'Billericay Dickie'
Damien Green

There are a few there I’d love to see. Bridgen is 100% losing his seat, and likely his deposit - he’s polling 0.5% as an independent.

 

[WesternLancer]

Interesting that we still talk about Portillo in the present, whereas Stephen Twigg has vanished without trace! The appearance to the TV cameras before the result has been officially announced has, in the past, led commentators to both pronounce losing candidates the winners and, in at least the case of David Owen defending Plymouth Devonport for the SDP and widely expected to lose, the assumption that was the case whereas he scraped in by c1k.

It’s all worked out well for Portillo tho as it’s allowed him to get some serious track bashing in, all paid for by the license fee payer! Who on this forum wouldn’t envy that

 

[Busaholic]

There are a few there I’d love to see. Bridgen is 100% losing his seat, and likely his deposit - he’s polling 0.5% as an independent.

I've only really chosen him because I want to see his behaviour at the result, assuming he hadn't already flounced out, if his little legs are capable of flouncing. He can then go into entirely justified obscurity.

 

[Ostrich]

I seriously would not want to see Keith Vaz make a political comeback as an Independent in Leicester East.
I don't know the level of support he has in that constituency, mind you, but I hope it's minimal.

 

[takno]

It’s all worked out well for Portillo tho as it’s allowed him to get some serious track bashing in, all paid for by the license fee payer! Who on this forum wouldn’t envy that

I think they probably made most of the money back - I think it's been weirdly popular in quite a lot of countries

 

[skyhigh]

I've only really chosen him because I want to see his behaviour at the result, assuming he hadn't already flounced out, if his little legs are capable of flouncing. He can then go into entirely justified obscurity.

I'd forgotten about him. From his wikipedia page -

Bridgen has been involved in a long legal battle against his own family's potato and vegetable business, AB Produce, stating the firm treated him unfairly and forced him out, while the business was suing him over claims he has failed to pay rent on a £1.5 million property owned by the firm. In April 2022, High Court Judge Brian Rawlings ruled against Bridgen, stating that he "lied under oath and behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive manner", was "an unreliable and combative witness who tried to conceal his own misconduct", and "gave evasive and argumentative answers and tangential speeches that avoided answering the questions". After losing the case, Bridgen stated that "in actuality I won the case and my brother will be compelled by the Court in due course to repay considerable sums of money back to the businesses", adding "if courts always got everything correct the first time there would be no need for appeal mechanisms".

Interesting bloke....

Personally - I am hoping to see the back of Sebastian Fox, Michael Green and Corinne Stockheath.

 

[m0ffy]

I'd forgotten about him. From his wikipedia page -

Interesting bloke....

Personally - I am hoping to see the back of Sebastian Fox, Michael Green and Corinne Stockheath.

He is genuinely unhinged. His election platform focuses on him being “right” about Covid and HS2.

 

[dgl]

For me it's our current mp Richard "do nothing" Drax. Seems to be good at writing letters to the Dorset Echo saying how great Boris is, that Brexit is excellent and so on but has done sod all for the local area, and anytime there had been any money going it's all gone to the BCP area. Replaced the excellent Labour MP Jim Knight who did give a damn,

 

[nw1]

IN my opinion , she is an excellent local MP - personable , engages and very visible in local functions etc. She got in deservedly to replace Anne Main (Conservative) who was very low profile indeed. Labour is not really a contender in SAC , though there have been MP's in the past .....

That was the impression I got, hence my surprise at the comment she might lose her seat to Labour.

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For me it's our current mp Richard "do nothing" Drax. Seems to be good at writing letters to the Dorset Echo saying how great Boris is, that Brexit is excellent and so on but has done sod all for the local area, and anytime there had been any money going it's all gone to the BCP area. Replaced the excellent Labour MP Jim Knight who did give a damn,

Yes, I remember South Dorset being a surprise Labour gain.

I'm not a constituent of Drax but most of what I've heard hasn't been good.

Wonder if there's any chance of Labour regaining the seat this time or is it too rural for Labour to appeal to the area in this day and age?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2024 ==

It would therefore be a spectacular vote against both the main parties if Faiza wins there.

I'd say she is the most deserving winner of that seat.

My money (not literally) is on Duncan Smith to achieve a rare London Con hold though - due to the split opposition.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2024 ==

Personally - I am hoping to see the back of Sebastian Fox, Michael Green and Corinne Stockheath.

I've never heard of any of them!

 

[WesternLancer]

I think they probably made most of the money back - I think it's been weirdly popular in quite a lot of countries

Good for them! Earning export currency as it were.

 

[Eyersey468]

So ironically we could end up with Rochdale having a more right-wing MP (on social matters, at least) than much of Surrey, or the small-town Midlands.

It's a shame Boris didn't stay on in Uxbridge. Then we could have perhaps enjoyed the biggest Portillo moment of all.

Or Matt Hancock, I'd have loved to see him get thrashed at the election

 

[nw1]

Or Matt Hancock, I'd have loved to see him get thrashed at the election

Mind you Hancock was MP for Tory Central so no chance of that, I suspect.

 

[Eyersey468]

Mind you Hancock was MP for Tory Central so no chance of that, I suspect.

Pity, I'd have loved to see him.get no votes at all

 

[SuspectUsual]

Pity, I'd have loved to see him.get no votes at all

Even Hancock has the mental capacity to vote for himself. Obviously the family vote would be a lot less secure these days though