Time to select your potential 'Portillo moment' on 5th July

[Busaholic]

Some of us remember well the televised result from the Enfield Southgate parliamentary seat at the General Election in 1997 when Michael Portillo was shown to have lost to his Labour opponent. He kept his cool, with a smile on his face, at this quite shock result which perfectly summed up the drumming that John Major's Tories received that night.

With so much talk of an even worse result for the Tories in July, I thought it might be amusing to find how members' minds are working as to how they think or hope things might pan out in individual seats.

To stop it becoming very samey, I'm going to say from the start that any member of Rishi Sunak's Cabinet, past or present, is excluded, plus Sunak himself and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Also the Nigel Farage melodrama will have its own life, and doesn't need to stray onto this thread! Let's have some of the pawns of the chessboard, maybe some who've aspired to be higher players and those whose behaviour and views may have offended you.

Choose as many as you like, but please give some sort of reason for your choice. It needn't only apply to Conservatives, by the way. but it's 2024 and we have to be realistic.

 

[JonathanH]

Some of us remember well the televised result from the Enfield Southgate parliamentary seat at the General Election in 1997 when Michael Portillo was shown to have lost to his Labour opponent. He kept his cool, with a smile on his face, at this quite shock result which perfectly summed up the drumming that John Major's Tories received that night.

Having watched it back, it wasn't really a moment as such, because there was speculation that he was 'in trouble' for a while before the result was actually declared. What I think I had forgotten was that Portillo at that time was a fairly key figure in the cabinet, Defence Secretary, and had been on the election night programme early on not thinking he was going to lose his seat. Remember that the candidates are told the result before it is declared publically.

As a prominent 'defend the indefensible' London Conservative MP, I wonder if Chris Philp will follow Portillo as appearing early in the election night programme, then go to his count to find he has lost. (He isn't a member of Sunak's cabinet so I think qualifies for this.)

Portsmouth North declared early in 1997, and Mordaunt losing or holding her seat will probably be one of the first cabinet members whose fate is known.

To stop it becoming very samey, I'm going to say from the start that any member of Rishi Sunak's Cabinet, past or present, is excluded, plus Sunak himself and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Also the Nigel Farage melodrama will have its own life, and doesn't need to stray onto this thread! Let's have some of the pawns of the chessboard, maybe some who've aspired to be higher players and those whose behaviour and views may have offended you.

Are people outside the cabinet prominent enough to be a "moment"? The televised declarations tend to be those of prominent individuals, not the lesser known 'pawns'.

 

[SuspectUsual]

I would have loved to see little Scott Benton lose, but his behaviour has obviously meant he’s already gone

Of those that are left, and as per the OP ignoring the cabinet, probably Gullis

 

[Busaholic]

Having watched it back, it wasn't really a moment as such, because there was speculation that he was 'in trouble' for a while before the result was actually declared. What I think I had forgotten was that Portillo at that time was a fairly key figure in the cabinet, Defence Secretary, and had been on the election night programme early on not thinking he was going to lose his seat. Remember that the candidates are told the result before it is declared publically.

As a prominent 'defend the indefensible' London Conservative MP, I wonder if Chris Philp will follow Portillo as appearing early in the election night programme, then go to his count to find he has lost. (He isn't a member of Sunak's cabinet so I think qualifies for this.)

Portsmouth North declared early in 1997, and Mordaunt losing or holding her seat will probably be one of the first cabinet members whose fate is known.


Are people outside the cabinet prominent enough to be a "moment"? The televised declarations tend to be those of prominent individuals, not the lesser known 'pawns'. came to nothing

Portillo's downfall was particularly piquant as he'd been involved in a 'secret' plot to replace Major as P.M. before that election, a suite of offices in Mayfair (?) having been rented. What may have killed the coup attempt was that BT were needed to install a number of new phone lines quickly, something which was extremely difficult in those days for non-government organisations, and word probably got out, so the attempt came to nothing and was denied for years, a bit like David Miliband's planned putsch on Gordon Brown.

I pondered the whole business of Cabinet ministers, but it soon became apparent that almost every single one was at some stage going to be predicted to lose their seats. On reflection, perhaps if someone has a particular animus against one or two they could be included, but please do give some sort of reason, even if it's only ''he/she makes my flesh creep.'

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Jun 2024 ==

I would have loved to see little Scott Benton lose, but his behaviour has obviously meant he’s already gone

Of those that are left, and as per the OP ignoring the cabinet, probably Gullis

Yes, good one, but also see above.

 

[AlterEgo]

I hope Johnny Mercer loses his seat.

 

[Blindtraveler]

For me personally, this could apply to pretty much any member of the SNP Westminster group, but it would give me particular pleasure to see. Stephen Flynn come a cropper
Whilst I did not vote for them. I did appreciate how the SMP were perceived as a breath of fresh air back in 200 7 when they took control of the Scottish parliament and their subsequent slow rise in Westminster participation, which of course erupted into a full-on explosion in 2015, however, by that point we'd had the truly toxic and divisive independence referendum where rather than fighting a fair battle, it was largely fuelled by anti-english hatred and old conflicts. Plus a good deal of misinformation, brexit was not the only campaign to be blighted by this. And since about 2011 or so I have held the entire party in extreme contempt and their recording government has done nothing to alter that other than in a more negative way each time
Mr. Flynn, I do not feel has behaved like an elected member of the UK. Parliament should behave and comes across to me as a very arrogant man and one I would dearly love to see put back in his box

 

[Benters]

Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Robert Jenrick and Mark Harper, obviously.
However, special mention must be made for Therese Coffey. A real Party Before Country person if ever there was.
A really nasty piece of work and a serial incompetent with zero empathy for those less fortunate than herself.

 

[Urobach]

Going to have to ignore the no cabinet rule, after all Portillo (I believe) was part of the cabinet prior to losing his seat and nominate Grant Shapps for reasons obvious to this forum.

 

[Gloster]

I am just hoping for quantity, not quality…if such a word can be used for Consevatives.

With Portillo, both he and Twigg, the winner, knew the result in advance, but both remained deadpan and there was no sign of victorious glee on Twigg’s face or despondency on Portillo’s, so the result can as a sudden surprise. It was also to be compared with the spat between Mellor and Sir Jammy Fishpaste (*) after the former had lost his seat in Putney.

* - Sir James Goldsmith.

 

[DarloRich]

I hope we see lots of the whoppers washed away. Quantity has a power all of it's own

I find this site quite fun: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

No idea if it is accurate but you can wipe out all manner of Tories!

For me personally, this could apply to pretty much any member of the SNP Westminster group, but it would give me particular pleasure to see. Stephen Flynn come a cropper

I know you hate the SNP but i cant see that happening. Whilst Flynn only has a c.4k majority he gained the seat last time around from the Tories and I just cant see the Tory vote holding up let alone increasing this time around. The SNP vote may go down but Labour came 4th last time around and were miles adrift.

( i know there are boundary changes but even so. SNP should hold this seat)

 

[nw1]

Kawczynski.
Gullis.

All the others I can think of are/were Cabinet ministers.

 

[SargeNpton]

I am wondering whether Jeremy Corbyn will find out that voters in his constituency have been voting for Labour all these years rather than himself?

 

[Oldgaloot]

I entirely agree with Benter's suggestion of Therese Coffey. As an old galoot I listened in horror as she justified shifting from the wages element of the triple lock to 2.5% on the grounds that the wages figure was "a statistical anomaly". That's just a figure you might not expect. I'm no statistician but I still can't see her point save that she didn't want to spend the money.

 

[DarloRich]

I am wondering whether Jeremy Corbyn will find out that voters in his constituency have been voting for Labour all these years rather than himself?

electoral calculus (above) suggest Corbyn will win, sadly.

They suggest Galloway should win Rochdale but close. The Lib Dems and to a lesser extent Greens will hand him the seat imo.

 

[nr758123]

My nomination for most graceless loser - Andrea Jenkins, Leeds SW & Morley.

 

[brad465]

Any of the top contenders challenging for Tory leadership and/or to influence the party direction, so Truss, Badenoch, Mordaunt, etc. The latter seems most likely, and would come with the bonus of saying to Mordaunt, "When you live by the sword..."

 

[nlogax]

From the Tory or ex Tory side, Francois, Jenkins, Fabricant and Anderson. All of whom have supported and enabled the downward trajectory of the government in recent years, all of whom need to disappear from Commons benches.

 

[nw1]

They suggest Galloway should win Rochdale but close. The Lib Dems and to a lesser extent Greens will hand him the seat imo.

So ironically we could end up with Rochdale having a more right-wing MP (on social matters, at least) than much of Surrey, or the small-town Midlands.

It's a shame Boris didn't stay on in Uxbridge. Then we could have perhaps enjoyed the biggest Portillo moment of all.

 

[Welly]

My nomination for most graceless loser - Andrea Jenkins, Leeds SW & Morley.

Hope Karl McCartney (Lincoln) storms off again when he loses.

 

[Busaholic]

With Portillo, both he and Twigg, the winner, knew the result in advance, but both remained deadpan and there was no sign of victorious glee on Twigg’s face or despondency on Portillo’s, so the result can as a sudden surprise. It was also to be compared with the spat between Mellor and Sir Jammy Fishpaste (*) after the former had lost his seat in Putney.

* - Sir James Goldsmith.

Interesting that we still talk about Portillo in the present, whereas Stephen Twigg has vanished without trace! The appearance to the TV cameras before the result has been officially announced has, in the past, led commentators to both pronounce losing candidates the winners and, in at least the case of David Owen defending Plymouth Devonport for the SDP and widely expected to lose, the assumption that was the case whereas he scraped in by c1k.

 

[nw1]

Hope Karl McCartney (Lincoln) storms off again when he loses.

Born in Birkenhead... wonder if he's a distant cousin of Paul?

Haven't heard of the storming off event, but reading up on him: Ardent Leaver. Opponent of same-sex marriage. Ranting on about the National Trust being too woke. Yep, I'll be glad to see him go.

 

[Busaholic]

From the Tory or ex Tory side, Francois, Jenkins, Fabricant and Anderson. All of whom have supported and enabled the downward trajectory of the government in recent years, all of whom need to disappear from Commons benches.

Yes, you've got into the spirit of this. I'll be making my own selection, and Anderson would be near the top.

 

[nw1]

Interesting that we still talk about Portillo in the present, whereas Stephen Twigg has vanished without trace!

Twigg was however an MP until five years ago.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Jun 2024 ==

Yes, you've got into the spirit of this. I'll be making my own selection, and Anderson would be near the top.

If Anderson is not disqualified on the "senior position" grounds, then absolutely yes. I assumed he wouldn't be allowed.

I'm inclined to think he will keep his seat though, due to defecting to Reform.

 

[Gloster]

Interesting that we still talk about Portillo in the present, whereas Stephen Twigg has vanished without trace! The appearance to the TV cameras before the result has been officially announced has, in the past, led commentators to both pronounce losing candidates the winners and, in at least the case of David Owen defending Plymouth Devonport for the SDP and widely expected to lose, the assumption that was the case whereas he scraped in by c1k.

Twigg lost Enfield in 2005, came back as a Liverpool MP from 2010-2019 and is now Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association.

 

[Welly]

Born in Birkenhead... wonder if he's a distant cousin of Paul?

No idea, don't like Karl.

 

[nw1]

Twigg lost Enfield in 2005, came back as a Liverpool MP from 2010-2019 and is now Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association.

Enfield Southgate is an interesting one as it went back to Tory earlier than most, but then flipped to Labour in 2017 and remained that way in 2019. Maybe some slight economic conservative leanings, but socially very liberal, I would guess.

Also of note is that Southgate has, for the past 4 elections, been a battle between two candidates Bambos Charalambous (the most recent MP) and David Burrowes, who held it until 2017.

 

[D6130]

Philip Davies (Shipley) would be high on my list, as well as his equally-objectionable wife Esther McVey....but she is/was a cabinet minister and therefore O/T for this thread.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Philip Davies (Shipley) would be high on my list, as well as his equally-objectionable wife Esther McVey....but she is/was a cabinet minister and therefore O/T for this thread.

To paraphrase the Jimmy Ormond / Waugh twins cricketing sledging, imagine being Philip Davies and still only being the second most repulsive person in your household

 

[DarloRich]

Philip Davies (Shipley) would be high on my list, as well as his equally-objectionable wife Esther McVey....but she is/was a cabinet minister and therefore O/T for this thread.

both suggested to be Labour gains. The former more strongly.

 

[Halwynd]

Philip Davies (Shipley) would be high on my list, as well as his equally-objectionable wife Esther McVey....but she is/was a cabinet minister and therefore O/T for this thread.

He's top of my list - because of his 'links' to the gambling and betting 'industry' - a bunch of parasites headed by the likes of Denise Coates et al.

May his consultancies, jaunts and hospitality soon come to an abrupt end.