Time to select your potential 'Portillo moment' on 5th July

[GRALISTAIR]

Rishi Sunak losing would be the mother of all Portillo moments.

 

[DarloRich]

Rishi Sunak losing would be the mother of all Portillo moments.

it isn't going to happen ( sadly) but Labour are at something like 27% of the vote ( projected) which is INCREDIBLE for a constituency where they weigh the Tory vote. Sunak has a 27k majority.

When I lived thier it was solid old school Tory. That they are turning away from the Tories should be a worry in places like Richmondshire

( anyway Sunak will quit soon after the election to go and live with his money in California)

 

[GRALISTAIR]

-- anyway Sunak will quit soon after the election to go and live with his money in California

I think you are 100% correct. I would bet very good money on it.

 

[DarloRich]

I think you are 100% correct. I would bet very good money on it.

You cant talk about betting and Tories right now!

 

[jfollows]

Philip Davies (Shipley) would be high on my list, as well as his equally-objectionable wife Esther McVey....but she is/was a cabinet minister and therefore O/T for this thread.

I’m doing what I can for (well, against really) Esther anyway ….

 

[GRALISTAIR]

You cant talk about betting and Tories right now!

Perhaps I am missing something. I try to keep up with UK politics but too much going on. Are you hinting to me there has been a betting scandal involving Conservatives? I know I could probably google it !

I think it is a matter of how big the Labour majority will be.

 

[DarloRich]

Perhaps I am missing something. I try to keep up with UK politics but too much going on. Are you hinting to me there has been a betting scandal involving Conservatives? I know I could probably google it !

I think it is a matter of how big the Labour majority will be.

off topic: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722014r42xo

The Conservative Party’s director of campaigning Tony Lee is being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.

Mr Lee, who took a leave of absence from his job on Wednesday afternoon, is married to a Conservative candidate who is being looked into by the betting industry regulator.

Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, has worked for the Tories since 2015 and is Mr Lee's partner.

It is not known when either individual placed a bet or for how much money.

 

[TheSmiths82]

I would like to think Sunak would go, I think the threat of Reform is very real there and because of the shock it would have it might encourage a lot of people to vote tactically. I don't know much about the area though other than it is a wealthier part of Yorkshire and must be one of the biggest constituencies in the country in terms of geographical size.

 

[simonw]

Perhaps I am missing something. I try to keep up with UK politics but too much going on. Are you hinting to me there has been a betting scandal involving Conservatives? I know I could probably google it !

I think it is a matter of how big the Labour majority will be.

Various people in the conservative party placed bets in the days leading up to the announcement of the election on the timing of the election. New names seem to come out almost daily.

 

[DarloRich]

I think the threat of Reform is very real there and because of the shock it would have it might encourage a lot of people to vote tactically

no one but the Tories are winning that seat. Reform aren't doing that well and while the Labour vote will be up the majority is vast.

 

[Busaholic]

no one but the Tories are winning that seat. Reform aren't doing that well and while the Labour vote will be up the majority is vast.

I'm inclined to agree , but, it's been estimated if they could get 40% of the anti-Sunakers to vote tactically i.e. for Labour then it might just happen. A more real likelihood is thousands of previous Tory voters staying at home, so maybe pray for an abnormally wet, cold and windy day. Figures for Badenoch suggest 36% and Cleverly 32% needed to do the same, but nobody really knows, do they? Getting the 18 to 30s to the polling stations with correct ID is what Labour should be focussing on at a national level.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I hope we see lots of the whoppers washed away. Quantity has a power all of it's own

I find this site quite fun: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

No idea if it is accurate but you can wipe out all manner of Tories!

I know you hate the SNP but i cant see that happening. Whilst Flynn only has a c.4k majority he gained the seat last time around from the Tories and I just cant see the Tory vote holding up let alone increasing this time around. The SNP vote may go down but Labour came 4th last time around and were miles adrift.

( i know there are boundary changes but even so. SNP should hold this seat)

From a purely practical perspective, I totally agree that if that seat changes hands, it will be a minor miracle, that said, of course, we do have the slightly unusual situation where the conservatives qdos north of the border is slightly higher than that of more traditional Tory voting areas, largely because quite a few people like Douglas Ross. Although his series of daft career politician, political games of late may have squashed any kind of Goodwill felt towards him and could well lose him his seat which I suppose would be a fair outcome
Thus far, I suspect the conservatives will have maybe only one or two seats north of the border and those are likely to remain conservative seats until the day I die
I think however we should be watching very carefully. The liberal democrats north of the border, they have thrived under Alex Cole Hamilton's leadership and while their big boss seems to Lurch from one stunt to another, it will still be interesting to observe how they do in Scotland

 

[SuspectUsual]

it isn't going to happen ( sadly) but Labour are at something like 27% of the vote ( projected) which is INCREDIBLE for a constituency where they weigh the Tory vote. Sunak has a 27k majority.

When I lived thier it was solid old school Tory. That they are turning away from the Tories should be a worry in places like Richmondshire

( anyway Sunak will quit soon after the election to go and live with his money in California)

Sadly the boundary changes this time round mean my partner can't try and vote him out, but has to console herself with trying to unseat the unpleasant Kevin Hollinrake

Incidentally, I saw a placard for Sunak on the way back from Northallerton this morning and it was in Tory blue and had his name plastered all over it, but not the word "Conservative"

 

[Spamcan81]

I would be delighted to see Rees-Mogg unseated.

 

[JonathanH]

no one but the Tories are winning that seat. Reform aren't doing that well and while the Labour vote will be up the majority is vast.

Does it matter that the majority is vast? The swing to Labour required is 23.5%. Surely in the context of this election that sort of swing is within reach?

I would be delighted to see Rees-Mogg unseated.

That won't take much. A 14.3% swing is in line with many of those seen in 1997, and Dan Norris is well known.

 

[D6130]

He's top of my list - because of his 'links' to the gambling and betting 'industry' - a bunch of parasites headed by the likes of Denise Coates et al.

May his consultancies, jaunts and hospitality soon come to an abrupt end.

My (until very recently) MP, Craig Whittaker, was also very much a glove puppet of the gambling industry....but he has very sensibly decided not to stand again. Calder Valley looks to be a pretty dead cert labour gain, not least because of boundary changes. Whittaker only had a majority of 609 in 2017....but that increased to 5,774 in 2019, mainly, I suspect, due to the Johnson/Brexit effect.

 

[SuspectUsual]

My (until very recently) MP, Craig Whittaker, was also very much a glove puppet of the gambling industry....but he has very sensibly decided not to stand again. Calder Valley looks to be a pretty dead cert labour gain, not least because of boundary changes. Whittaker only had a majority of 609 in 2017....but that increased to 5,774 in 2019, mainly, I suspect, due to the Johnson/Brexit effect.

Don't forget that in 2017 Rob Holden (then a disaffected Tory after local financial management issues, now a convicted pervert) stood as an independent and got just over 1,000 votes which realistically would almost all have gone to Whittaker in normal circumstances

But yes, Josh Fenton-Glynn should win comfortably, and I'm confident he'll make a very good constituency MP

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I would be delighted to see Rees-Mogg unseated.

Mr Smug - I always call him Rees-Smug - sorry OT I know.

 

[jupiter]

Another vote to see the wee smog get a boot.

 

[gaillark]

Iain Duncan-Smith in Chingford is on a knife edge.

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Some of us remember well the televised result from the Enfield Southgate parliamentary seat at the General Election in 1997 when Michael Portillo was shown to have lost to his Labour opponent. He kept his cool, with a smile on his face, at this quite shock result which perfectly summed up the drumming that John Major's Tories received that night.

Living locally, people in Winchmore Hill were disgusted with the Conservatives as they wanted to sell their consistuency office and turn it into a McDonalds drivethrugh.
It's absolutely true ... that the prospect of a McD turned a lot of people away from the Conservatives and voted for Stephen Twigg (Labour) in protest. Also Michael did not do any local compaigning which further allienated conservative voters. Twigg himself even did not expect to win in Enfield Southgate.

What happended to the constituency office> Eventually it was converted in flats.

 

[nw1]

I'm inclined to agree , but, it's been estimated if they could get 40% of the anti-Sunakers to vote tactically i.e. for Labour then it might just happen. A more real likelihood is thousands of previous Tory voters staying at home, so maybe pray for an abnormally wet, cold and windy day. Figures for Badenoch suggest 36% and Cleverly 32% needed to do the same, but nobody really knows, do they? Getting the 18 to 30s to the polling stations with correct ID is what Labour should be focussing on at a national level.

Given Braintree actually was a Labour gain in 1997 (been watching some of the 1997 coverage again) presumably it could in theory go Labour again.

Unless, of course (and I suspect this could be the case) Essex is one of those areas which has swung disproportionately Conservative since 1997. Basildon had a huge Labour majority in 1997 (12,000) yet no-one is talking of it as a Labour gain this time - admittedly the constituency has been redrawn to include more Tory areas. Harlow, also, seems to be holding the Tory vote if the council elections are anything to go by.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Jun 2024 ==

Iain Duncan-Smith in Chingford is on a knife edge.

He is of course a beneficiary of Labour deselecting Faiza Shaheen, with the result that she is standing as an independent, thus the left-leaning vote is split.
Thus I think Duncan Smith is much more likely to hold the seat than any other Tory MPs in the area are likely to hold theirs.

 

[Busaholic]

He is of course a beneficiary of Labour deselecting Faiza Shaheen, with the result that she is standing as an independent, thus the left-leaning vote is split.
Thus I think Duncan Smith is much more likely to hold the seat than any other Tory MPs in the area are likely to hold theirs.

I absolutely agree with you on that. Labour don't deserve to win it. Speaking of results against the flow, I think Ilford North might be more of a struggle for Wes Streeting than might be expected, with the Workers' party expected to make inroads.

Right, having started the thread I'll give you my six choices, a catholic selection tbh and some may surprise you, but I have my reasons for each one.

George Galloway
Ian Paisley Jr.
Andrew Bridgen
Andrew Rossindell
Richard Holden, 'Billericay Dickie'
Damien Green

 

[nw1]

I absolutely agree with you on that. Labour don't deserve to win it. Speaking of results against the flow, I think Ilford North might be more of a struggle for Wes Streeting than might be expected, with the Workers' party expected to make inroads.

Right, having started the thread I'll give you my six choices, a catholic selection tbh and some may surprise you, but I have my reasons for each one.

George Galloway
Ian Paisley Jr.
Andrew Bridgen
Andrew Rossindell
Richard Holden, 'Billericay Dickie'
Damien Green

Good choices on the whole and none surprise me, to be honest. Not sure about Damien Green, I forgot what he did.

I forgot about Rosindell. Yes, he would definitely have made my list had I thought of him earlier.

 

[507021]

The one I'd most like to see is Mordaunt, because her behaviour during the two TV debates was outrageous. I'd actually considered her to be one of the few reasonable Tory MPs left, but I was proven very, very wrong after she made a complete show of herself on national television. I think she's patronising, condescending and sees herself as above anyone who has the audacity to disagree with her. Pointing and shouting at grown adults like they're naughty children who've been caught stealing sweets from the jar, and shouting over people when they're speaking, is not acceptable behaviour. Even my 11-year-old daughter, who has zero interest in politics and wasn't exactly paying much attention to either debate, expressed strong disapproval of the way Mordaunt was conducting herself. Disgraceful.

 

[DarloRich]

I'm inclined to agree , but, it's been estimated if they could get 40% of the anti-Sunakers to vote tactically i.e. for Labour then it might just happen. A more real likelihood is thousands of previous Tory voters staying at home, so maybe pray for an abnormally wet, cold and windy day. Figures for Badenoch suggest 36% and Cleverly 32% needed to do the same, but nobody really knows, do they? Getting the 18 to 30s to the polling stations with correct ID is what Labour should be focussing on at a national level.

Does it matter that the majority is vast? The swing to Labour required is 23.5%. Surely in the context of this election that sort of swing is within reach?

Sunak wont lose Richmondshire and Northallerton. It isn't happening sadly.

 

[Busaholic]

Good choices on the whole and none surprise me, to be honest. Not sure about Damien Green, I forgot what he did.

I forgot about Rosindell. Yes, he would definitely have made my list had I thought of him earlier.

Green is a bit of a strange one. He was Deputy PM under May in effect and had been a very prominent Remainer. He first came to notice when his office in the House of Commons got raided by the police, an extraordinary event in itself, and though nothing ever came of it a certain high-ranking Met Police officer leaked that a massive amount of pornography was found on his computer, which he steadfastly claimed had not been put there by him. This is not the reason I'm including him, though, it's the later claims by two female political journalists of unwanted physical attention from him, with Jane Merrick of the i breaking cover to reveal she was one. She wasn't seeking his arrest, and he denied the claims vociferously. When his seat in Kent got its boundaries altered last year he sought nomination in the new Weald of Kent one, but failed. I assumed he'd stand down but find he's fighting the 'new' Ashford, hence his appearance here as a creep of the highest order.

 

[Tracked]

On a local level, professional photo-op hunter Nick Fluster - MP for Don Valley - would be on the list.

Rishi, Penny, Kemi, Grant, Gullis, Leeanderthal, Truss and C ... Hunt

other than them, Fartage not getting Clacton

Having to work early Friday, so having an early night and should be heading to the local for opening time all being well

 

[simonw]

Sunak wont lose Richmondshire and Northallerton. It isn't happening sadly.

If he doesn't, I expect there to be a byelection soon after.

 

[nw1]

Sunak wont lose Richmondshire and Northallerton. It isn't happening sadly.

Indeed. While the town and Swaledale are very nice, it's the very definition of rural affluence, or at least it was (the year I visited was 1991) and hence dead-cert Tory.

 

[DunsBus]

Another vote to see the wee smog get a boot.

Remembering a comment he once made about foodbanks, I'd find it rather uplifting if Lord Snooty got given the boot. Outdated dinosaurs like him have no place in politics.