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UK General Election 2024

Now that we are in the final throes of the campaign, who will you be voting for?

  • Labour

    Votes: 104 49.5%
  • Conservative

    Votes: 8 3.8%
  • Reform

    Votes: 18 8.6%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 57 27.1%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 15 7.1%
  • SNP

    Votes: 4 1.9%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Independent

    Votes: 3 1.4%

  • Total voters
    210
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Gloster

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I was trying to do that in a jocular sort of way. I do recall, however, many years ago when the Tories put up Robert Atkins to stand against the sitting Labour MP, Ronald Atkins in a Preston constituency. Labour still won the seat, despite calling foul but Robert migrated a few miles further south across the Ribble to become my MP.

Ronald Atkins was the Labour MP for Preston North from 1966 to 1970 and from February 1974 to 1979, when he was defeated by the Conservative Robert Atkins. In 1983 Preston North was abolished and Robert Atkins moved to South Ribble, where he was the MP until 1997; from 1999 to 2014 he was an MEP.
 
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AlterEgo

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There's already a huge amount of distrust of our officials and politicians among the population, so going back on the referendum result would do a huge amount of harm.
Why would it, if a party campaigned on it as a key part of their manifesto, and won office on this basis?

What sort of harm would it do?
 

Busaholic

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Perhaps you’re not aware that majority opinion turned against leaving in 2017 and there was even a poll reported this week giving 52:48 for rejoining. Which by your logic is therefore the populist position, though impossible to achieve for many years.
Poll I saw which included 'don't knows' was 58:31 for rejoining. You might ask why the political parties in general don't want to discuss this, other than some rather weak LibDem mentions.
 

D1537

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Poll I saw which included 'don't knows' was 58:31 for rejoining. You might ask why the political parties in general don't want to discuss this, other than some rather weak LibDem mentions.
Obviously because there are c.15 million people out there who voted Leave, and even if a sizeable number have changed their mind, that's still a lot of people. Not only that, but those people are (a) generally in the older demographic who are more likely to vote, and (b) in a lot of marginal constituencies (i.e. the Red Wall).
 

52290

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Ronald Atkins was the Labour MP for Preston North from 1966 to 1970 and from February 1974 to 1979, when he was defeated by the Conservative Robert Atkins. In 1983 Preston North was abolished and Robert Atkins moved to South Ribble, where he was the MP until 1997; from 1999 to 2014 he was an MEP.
Ok, I should have known Ronald was defeated as I knew his son Mike, a real ale campaigner like me.
 

43096

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If the vote had been to remain by 52:48 the matter would have been forgotten in six months. The referendum would now be a dim and distant memory from eight years ago. Covid in between then and now would have been a far more significant memory for most people. There would have been nothing like the continuous carping and criticism of the referendum decision that we have seen. There would be no constant campaign for a re-run. "The people have spoken" would have been the response.
It wouldn't. Farage (and his rabble) and the swivel-eyed-loon wing of the Tory party would never have just accepted it. They'd have picked some other pretext for another referendum until they got the result they wanted, much as the SNP do in Scotland.
 

deltic

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If the vote had been to remain by 52:48 the matter would have been forgotten in six months. The referendum would now be a dim and distant memory from eight years ago. Covid in between then and now would have been a far more significant memory for most people. There would have been nothing like the continuous carping and criticism of the referendum decision that we have seen. There would be no constant campaign for a re-run. "The people have spoken" would have been the response.
It wouldn't as Nigel Farage made clear when he thought he had lost the vote. There would have remained a constant campaign by UKIP and the ERG to push for Brexit given such a very small margin of defeat in the same way we have seen the SNP continue to push for independence in Scotland despite losing by a larger margin.
 

61653 HTAFC

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Why would it, if a party campaigned on it as a key part of their manifesto, and won office on this basis?

What sort of harm would it do?
In that case, the will of the people would be clear. No problem with it.

Though you can use the same argument for literally any policy. If a party is elected to Government on a policy of say, zero immigration, then that is what that government should enact.

As for the harm, just imagine for a moment that the result had gone the other way... but then a party came into government a few years down the line who were elected on a policy of leaving the EU- no referendum, just unilateral withdrawal. Yes, that party would have a democratic mandate to do so. But the fact that there was a referendum on that issue, to me elevates it above a simple manifesto pledge, such that a reversal of that policy should be subject to a second referendum. Therefore in the real world, a move to rejoin should be subject to a referendum too.

In any case, any party putting a policy of rejoining (or holding a referendum on doing so) front and centre would be either brave or stupid* based on my admittedly subjective exposure to the opinions of others out in the real world. Even the remainers don't seem keen on going through the whole messy business again.
If it were to happen I think many on both sides (remain/leave, for avoidance of doubt) would become further disillusioned with politics in general, so turnouts would take a hit over the coming years. A lack of faith in democracy also tends to push those who don't abstain to the extremes.

*= come to think of it, given the way the Conservative campaign is going I wouldn't be surprised if Rishi announces that on his next awkward press conference at a rubber chicken factory... I wonder how many Labour supporters on here would "hold their nose and vote Tory"? ;)
 

brad465

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In that case, the will of the people would be clear. No problem with it.

Though you can use the same argument for literally any policy. If a party is elected to Government on a policy of say, zero immigration, then that is what that government should enact.

As for the harm, just imagine for a moment that the result had gone the other way... but then a party came into government a few years down the line who were elected on a policy of leaving the EU- no referendum, just unilateral withdrawal. Yes, that party would have a democratic mandate to do so. But the fact that there was a referendum on that issue, to me elevates it above a simple manifesto pledge, such that a reversal of that policy should be subject to a second referendum. Therefore in the real world, a move to rejoin should be subject to a referendum too.

In any case, any party putting a policy of rejoining (or holding a referendum on doing so) front and centre would be either brave or stupid* based on my admittedly subjective exposure to the opinions of others out in the real world. Even the remainers don't seem keen on going through the whole messy business again.
If it were to happen I think many on both sides (remain/leave, for avoidance of doubt) would become further disillusioned with politics in general, so turnouts would take a hit over the coming years. A lack of faith in democracy also tends to push those who don't abstain to the extremes.

*= come to think of it, given the way the Conservative campaign is going I wouldn't be surprised if Rishi announces that on his next awkward press conference at a rubber chicken factory... I wonder how many Labour supporters on here would "hold their nose and vote Tory"? ;)
The problem with any referendum in this country is there are nowhere enough regulations in connection with them, regarding the margin of victory required, funding laws, among other things. Switzerland is known for having referendums on almost everything they want to pursue, so have all these laws regulating them. Our general elections on the other hand do have more rules and regulations governing them; at the very least referendum ones should be brought up to the same standard.

On the re-join subject specifically, the EU will not accept the UK going through the process until their is a very strong level of support among the population and all the main political parties are firmly in agreement. The EU will not want to start the process under one government only to have a new government come in and cancel the whole process, thus wasting everyone's time and money. This is why no party is proposing to re-join in the next parliament and why the Lib Dems have only stated it as a long term ambition.
 

JamesT

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The problem with any referendum in this country is there are nowhere enough regulations in connection with them, regarding the margin of victory required, funding laws, among other things. Switzerland is known for having referendums on almost everything they want to pursue, so have all these laws regulating them. Our general elections on the other hand do have more rules and regulations governing them; at the very least referendum ones should be brought up to the same standard.
The Brexit Referendum was conducted under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, which is the same legislation that general elections are held.
 

D6130

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The problem with any referendum in this country is there are nowhere enough regulations in connection with them, regarding the margin of victory required, funding laws, among other things. Switzerland is known for having referendums on almost everything they want to pursue, so have all these laws regulating them. Our general elections on the other hand do have more rules and regulations governing them; at the very least referendum ones should be brought up to the same standard.

On the re-join subject specifically, the EU will not accept the UK going through the process until their is a very strong level of support among the population and all the main political parties are firmly in agreement. The EU will not want to start the process under one government only to have a new government come in and cancel the whole process, thus wasting everyone's time and money. This is why no party is proposing to re-join in the next parliament and why the Lib Dems have only stated it as a long term ambition.
....plus, as things stand at the moment - as an aspirant state - the UK would have to commit to scrapping the Pound Sterling and adopting the Euro.
 

takno

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....plus, as things stand at the moment - as an aspirant state - the UK would have to commit to scrapping the Pound Sterling and adopting the Euro.
Seems like a reasonable time to do it, now they're basically at parity
 

ikcdab

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The problem with any referendum in this country is there are nowhere enough regulations in connection with them, regarding the margin of victory required, funding laws, among other things. Switzerland is known for having referendums on almost everything they want to pursue, so have all these laws regulating them. Our general elections on the other hand do have more rules and regulations governing them; at the very least referendum ones should be brought up to the same standard.

On the re-join subject specifically, the EU will not accept the UK going through the process until their is a very strong level of support among the population and all the main political parties are firmly in agreement. The EU will not want to start the process under one government only to have a new government come in and cancel the whole process, thus wasting everyone's time and money. This is why no party is proposing to re-join in the next parliament and why the Lib Dems have only stated it as a long term ambition.
Agree with this. Having got "their fingers burned" by allowing us in and all the trouble the UK caused, the EU will think very hard about letting us back in. We are out now and that's it. The minimum we can wait for a new referendum is a generation so there is a new set of the population to ask.
 

Spamcan81

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Agree with this. Having got "their fingers burned" by allowing us in and all the trouble the UK caused, the EU will think very hard about letting us back in. We are out now and that's it. The minimum we can wait for a new referendum is a generation so there is a new set of the population to ask.
We could have another referendum this year if the political will is there. The demographic has changed since 2016. Older voters deceased, new younger voters on the electoral roll too. No need to wait for a generation.
 

D6130

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We could have another referendum this year if the political will is there. The demographic has changed since 2016. Older voters deceased, new younger voters on the electoral roll too. No need to wait for a generation.
Yes....but what would be the point? As stated above, the EU would be most unlikely to let us back in at this juncture....and I speak as an ardent remainer.
 

nw1

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Surely there's a middle position here? Not rejoin right now, but perhaps consider it around 2035-ish (e.g. for a hypothetical 2034 manifesto) depending on the state of things at that time. Of course, it may also depend on whether the EU even exists, in its current form, in 10 years time.

No need, necessarily, to wait "a generation" (if this is 30 years, that would imply 2046).

But back on topic: what are people's thoughts about the effect of the Farage shannanigans on the election result?
 
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jfollows

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But back on topic: what are people's thoughts about the effect of the Farage shannanigans on the election result?
Big, but it's baked-in now, he's going to get 3 seats or so, and he's going to ensure that the Conservatives lose a lot of seats to Labour & LibDem.
In terms of what's affecting the result now I think the thing around betting on the election date is more important, if people wanted a reason not to vote Conservative and they were undecided, this could make them vote other than Conservative.
I bet £10 on the election date (for January 2025, so I lost my bet), but for anyone close to the "inner circle" to place a bet immediately before the date is announced is just idiotic, thoughtless, and stupid. Even if the person placing the bet didn't actually know the date. Two fingers to the electorate, we're going to make some money and then bugger off. Stupid. In future people like me won't be allowed to place bets again.
 

dosxuk

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As stated above, the EU would be most unlikely to let us back in at this juncture

The EU won't turn down a genuine attempt to re-join, especially not based on some arbitrary "once in a generation vote" timeline.

What they will want to see before beginning any official negotiations is that there is a clear consensus, across both the general public and Parliament for re-joining, along with wide acceptance of the consequences of being a member. While it's better for everyone that we re-join the club, the amount of effort and time spent on our departure will mean they won't want to go through it all again a few years later when a new Farage gets uppity about things that are our fault anyway.

I would also be very surprised if there hasn't been any sort of unofficial "what would we need to do" type discussions about re-joining.
 

edwin_m

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Right now it's a question of taking easy steps that don't need a lot of negotiation with the EU and aren't controversial at home. For example, might as well recognise reality and say we will follow EuroNorms rather than expecting companies to follow a different set of standards when selling to the UK. The Tory government has moreorless done this already.

An interesting option might be if the EU becomes less stringent on new members adopting everything they do, either taking on Macron's idea of a reduced membership excluding the poliltical things, or because increased Euroskepticism amongst the current members puts a brake on the ideas of political integration. Such an arrangement might suit the UK better.

Worth remembering also that the "done" trade agreement with the EU is due for re-negotiation in 2026.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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Surely there's a middle position here? Not rejoin right now, but perhaps consider it around 2035-ish (e.g. for a hypothetical 2034 manifesto) depending on the state of things at that time. Of course, it may also depend on whether the EU even exists, in its current form, in 10 years time.

No need, necessarily, to wait "a generation" (if this is 30 years, that would imply 2046).

Personally I'd interpret 'a generation' as about 20-25 years. Since the referendum happened in 2016, that would mean that by about 2035-ish it would be reasonable to start thinking about another referendum, if there is a sufficient public demand for it at that point.

But I think in terms of how it looks, that does depend on there having been a decent intervening period where no-one is seriously talking about another referendum. If the entire period between 2016 and 2036-ish gets taken up by constant demands for another referendum, then it just starts to look like the SNP and their neverendum - a sense that people just want another referendum because people voted the 'wrong' way the last time. If on the other hand, there's a decent period of, people across the political spectrum accepting that the vote was to not be in the EU, and therefore democratic legitimacy really requires that we spend a decade or so seeing how not being in the EU goes and making the best of that reality, then at the end of that time I don't see a problem with a vote to see if people still want to be out of he EU. Unfortunately, to my mind, the fact that most of the period since the referendum has already been taken up with Remainers trying to undermine the result, demanding another referendum, etc. has already to some extent undermined that.

And realistically, 2035-ish isn't that far away.

But back on topic: what are people's thoughts about the effect of the Farage shannanigans on the election result?

We'll have to see how this week's opinion polls pan out, but my suspicion is it must have dented Reform's credibility a bit. That's probably to the advantage of the Tories in this election - may help them retain a few more seats. I think in the long run that's also to the advantage of democracy, since just about the last thing the UK needs is Reform, with all their conspiracy theories, denial of science, and tendency to spread misinformation, getting any more influence than they already have.
 

DarloRich

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Hopefully the Tory betting scandal will damage them. These clowns really seem to think laws and rules are for the little people. The fact that candidates involved haven't been suspended shown what they really think!

When that finally happens in the next day or so it will just make the Tories look even more chaotic.
 

ainsworth74

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Might I take this opportunity to prod everyone back towards the Brexit thread please? Whilst it clearly is of some/a lot/varying/none at all/massive (delete as per personal preference) salience to the election its a topic so vast that it risks overwhelming any thread it is introduced to! So I think it would be best that once we get into the weeds of hypotheticals rather than the announced policy positions of the parties we go back to the dedicated thread.
 

gg1

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The EU won't turn down a genuine attempt to re-join, especially not based on some arbitrary "once in a generation vote" timeline.
They will if they think there's a possibility (even a very slim possibility) that a decade or two after re joining the EU, the UK then demands Brexit version 2. Unless there is overwhelming public support (something like two thirds of the electorate in favour of EU membership), I don't think the EU will want us back.
 

ainsworth74

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Hopefully the Tory betting scandal will damage them. These clowns really seem to think laws and rules are for the little people. The fact that candidates involved haven't been suspended shown what they really think!
I find the comparison to Partygate to be quite interesting. It's quite a similar line to what was going on then "We've got to wait for the Sue Gray report" has become "The matter is being investigated by the gambling commission so we can't do anything until it reports".
 

DarloRich

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I find the comparison to Partygate to be quite interesting. It's quite a similar line to what was going on then "We've got to wait for the Sue Gray report" has become "The matter is being investigated by the gambling commission so we can't do anything until it reports".
exactly - if I were under investigation by the gambling commission I would be suspended from work pending the outcome. That does not prejudice the investigation or suggest guilt it is simple a reflection of the potential serious nature of the issue.
 

ainsworth74

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exactly - if I were under investigation by the gambling commission I would be suspended from work pending the outcome. That does not prejudice the investigation or suggest guilt it is simple a reflection of the potential serious nature of the issue.
Which is, of course, what the police did to the officer who is implicated in the whole affair, one might wonder why should Tory party members/candidates be any different...
 
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