UK General Election 2024

[LNW-GW Joint]

A lot is hanging on the first steps the Labour government makes after July 5, and the ministerial appointments they make.
They will need a careful and unified approach to avoid the whole thing descending into chaos after three months or so (the 100 days syndrome).
I hope they have a plan.
The markets will have a say too, although hopefully Starmer and Reeves have done enough to at least give their economic plans a chance to work over a year or so.

 

[nw1]

So we have Farage's Putin overtures and Tate support on the one hand, and the Tory betting scandal on the other, potentially damaging both parties.

I'm still of the opinion that the former will be considered more serious, so there will be something of a Reform -> Tory swing, albeit not a huge one.

In terms of overall effect on the results, I'd say none on more socially-liberal seats but any socially more conservative seats currently predicted to be surprise Labour gains might veer back towards Tory holds. Thinking the Tories might come away with something over 150 overall, i.e. a similar ballpark to 1997, so not exactly a good result for them but not quite the Labour "supermajority" of Shapps and co.

So in terms of concrete seats: Labour still make gains in places like Milton Keynes, Bournemouth, Worthing and Swindon - but more far-out predictions such as taking the Isle of Wight seats, Basingstoke, Aldershot, etc may not now happen.

 

[HSTEd]

I'm not convinced the Farage comments will have much impact at all.

The central purpose of Reform, crush the Conservatives, is still served whatever their actual position on Ukraine is.
Given Labour is in support of aid to Ukraine it is not significantly endangered by voting Reform.

Indeed its entirely possible it will win over more protest votes from people who don't support aid to Ukraine.

 

[ikcdab]

To be honest, Farage has the same kind of support as Donald Trump. Whatever he says or does increases his support. So his remarks will have little effect. And I am still voting for him, despite what he said. What Farage claimed was that EU has been expanding to the East and this has clearly put pressure on Putin. And Putin has expanded into Ukraine. Whilst both of those statements are irrefutably true, it is a leap of faith to make the latter the result of the former. I suspect that Putin would have expanded into Ukraine (or another ex-soviet republic) whatever.
None of the political parties are whiter than white on everything, they all have said and done things that were unwise and which we might pick then up on. When we focus on those we lose the bigger picture. You have to look beyond that and drill down into the policies.

 

[ainsworth74]

What Farage claimed was that EU has been expanding to the East and this has clearly put pressure on Putin. And Putin has expanded into Ukraine. Whilst both of those statements are irrefutably true, it is a leap of faith to make the latter the result of the former.

Yes it is true that the EU has expanded eastwards and Russia has now expanded westwards into Ukraine (and southwards in Georgia). Though one expansion was via peaceful democratic means representing the desires of a majority of the people living in those countries. The other expansion was via a war of conquest which has killed tens of thousands, wounded hundreds of thousands, displaced millions and caused huge damage to Ukraine's vital infrastructure and will require years, if not decades, to rebuild and clean up afterwards (the demining effort alone will be a huge undertaking).

You'll forgive if I find little merit to comparing EU expansion to Russian expansion...

 

[SuspectUsual]

I got a mailshot letter from the Tory candidate in Calder Valley today.

Its really quite remarkable.

Firstly, the letterhead is "Vanessa Lee Local Champion for the Calder Valley", and details of her website and email. The only reference to the Conservative Party is a much smaller logo right at the bottom of the page

The first two paragraphs effectively concede that Labour will win but say she'll always stand up for the constituency. Well, I'd have hoped that went without saying

There are then a further 11 short paragraphs which explain how she's local (but she isn't, but let's gloss over that), she's successful, and some stuff about things she's done as a councillor

There's then a paragraph where she acknowledges the failings of "the party" (but again doesn't use the word Conservative) and says she's standing because she's as frustrated as we are!

There's then a few paragraphs of criticism of Labour and Starmer, including stating as fact that Labour will implement a national ULEZ scheme and "national pay-per-mile road tax"

So, 19 paragraphs, and the number of mentions for:

Rishi Sunak - 0

Conservative - 1

Keir Starmer - 5

Labour - 5

Never seen anything like it before

 

[nw1]

To be honest, Farage has the same kind of support as Donald Trump. Whatever he says or does increases his support. So his remarks will have little effect. And I am still voting for him, despite what he said. What Farage claimed was that EU has been expanding to the East and this has clearly put pressure on Putin.

"Put pressure on Putin"? What sort of pressure exactly? Makes him sound like some poor, set-upon unfortunate who's being bullied by the evil West, or something.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jun 2024 ==

I got a mailshot letter from the Tory candidate in Calder Valley today.

Its really quite remarkable.

Firstly, the letterhead is "Vanessa Lee Local Champion for the Calder Valley", and details of her website and email. The only reference to the Conservative Party is a much smaller logo right at the bottom of the page

Oh no, not another one.

And I suspect that lots of stuff slagging off Starmer, but nothing singing the praises of Rishi, isn't going to go down very well. Too negative, basically.

 

[Ostrich]

I had a personally-addressed flyer through the post earlier last week that had a picture of Starmer in a Lord Kitchener pose on the front and read "Kier Starmer wants YOU to vote Reform!"

I thought it was a Reform flyer. Mrs O thought it was a Labour flyer. Inspection of the small print revealed it was a Tory flyer. Talk about confused messaging!

 

[birchesgreen]

Still only got Labour and TUSC literature, the joys of living in a safe seat.

 

[ainsworth74]

including stating as fact that Labour will implement a national ULEZ scheme

Yes indeed it's shocking that Labour want to introduce a policy which *check notes* they've not said they'd introduce, which *checks further notes* was originally suggested and planned for by Boris Johnson (is this right?), and only effects something like 10% of vehicles (a number falling all the time) anyway...

I get why their hammering away on it this "WAR ON MOTORIST" claptrap thanks to Uxbridge but really guys? Is this the best you've got?

 

[SuspectUsual]

Oh no, not another one

There are posters and signs in Richmond & Northallerton with "Rishi Sunak - Standing up for the people of Richmond and Northallerton" on them. Its as if they're an opposition party

 

[ainsworth74]

There are posters and signs in Richmond & Northallerton with "Rishi Sunak - Standing up for the people of Richmond and Northallerton" on them. Its as if they're an opposition party

Yes someone posted an election leaflet of his on Twitter (sorry I didn't grab the link!) from his constituency and it wasn't even in Tory blue. The Prime Minister appears to be distancing himself from his own party...

 

[AM9]

Yes someone posted an election leaflet of his on Twitter (sorry I didn't grab the link!) from his constituency and it wasn't even in Tory blue. The Prime Minister appears to be distancing himself from his own party...

Neither Labour or Conservative sent election material around here, (it's a pretty safe Liberal seat now. There were sheets from the greens, and 'Heritage' party. Now they are frightening, even pushing repatriation. They make Reform look moderate!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I had a personally-addressed flyer through the post earlier last week that had a picture of Starmer in a Lord Kitchener pose on the front and read "Kier Starmer wants YOU to vote Reform!"

I thought it was a Reform flyer. Mrs O thought it was a Labour flyer. Inspection of the small print revealed it was a Tory flyer. Talk about confused messaging!

There really needs to be a website where people can post pictures of misleading/confusing leaflets like these.

 

[ainsworth74]

There really needs to be a website where people can post pictures of misleading/confusing leaflets like these.

I believe it's called Twitter? Or was called Twitter anyway

 

[JamesT]

There really needs to be a website where people can post pictures of misleading/confusing leaflets like these.

You may be interested in https://www.openelections.co.uk/
It's managed by some researchers from the University of Nottingham, they're trying to collate election material like this.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Still only got Labour and TUSC literature, the joys of living in a safe seat.

Same here, except it's just been flyers for Labour (who are 1/200 on to win the local constituency) and also the Social Democrats. Nothing from the other five "hopefuls".

 

[ikcdab]

Here in Taunton, the only stuff I have had is from the communist party. I didnt know they still existed!

 

[Moonshot]

What sort of turnout figures is everyone expecting? IMO 62% would be about right

 

[Darandio]

There really needs to be a website where people can post pictures of misleading/confusing leaflets like these.

I believe it's called Twitter? Or was called Twitter anyway

You may be interested in https://www.openelections.co.uk/
It's managed by some researchers from the University of Nottingham, they're trying to collate election material like this.

This is the one in question. Fantastic website as well.

 

[Ediswan]

This is the one in question. Fantastic website as well.

Personally, I would redact the second part of the postcode. A full postcode only covers a few addresses.

 

[Darandio]

Personally, I would redact the second part of the postcode. A full postcode only covers a few addresses.

You might want to contact the website in question, that image is purely linked from there.

 

[Crithylum]

Yes indeed it's shocking that Labour want to introduce a policy which *check notes* they've not said they'd introduce, which *checks further notes* was originally suggested and planned for by Boris Johnson (is this right?), and only effects something like 10% of vehicles (a number falling all the time) anyway...

I was recently watching an old Top Gear episode where in the news they were talking about Boris Johnson introducing an emissions charging scheme in London (I think it was ULEZ). I think that only 3% of vehicles are non-compliant, but that is just off memory

 

[Sorcerer]

What sort of turnout figures is everyone expecting? IMO 62% would be about right

Turnout was on an upward trend from 2005 to 2017 with a small drop in 2019. If that's anything to go by I'd say about roughly a 66-68% turnout. Any surge of people wanting to get the Tories out would probably be counterbalanced by those who are too apathetic this time around and would decide not to vote at all. Even as someone whose always voted since he was eligible I'm not particularly excited about this election and don't really trust Kier Starmer but am more than willing to take a gamble on him than I am with another five years of the Conservatives, even despite me living in one of the safest Labour seats in the country.

 

[sor]

There really needs to be a website where people can post pictures of misleading/confusing leaflets like these.

there are a couple, eg https://electionleaflets.org/ and https://www.openelections.co.uk - the latter seems to have a better search function

I've also had the same "Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform" leaflet as has been posted here. I'm in what was a relatively safe tory seat, and certainly one that skews older, which makes it no surprise that the other side of it seems entirely devoted to pensioners

 

[Busaholic]

Turnout was on an upward trend from 2005 to 2017 with a small drop in 2019. If that's anything to go by I'd say about roughly a 66-68% turnout. Any surge of people wanting to get the Tories out would probably be counterbalanced by those who are too apathetic this time around and would decide not to vote at all. Even as someone whose always voted since he was eligible I'm not particularly excited about this election and don't really trust Kier Starmer but am more than willing to take a gamble on him than I am with another five years of the Conservatives, even despite me living in one of the safest Labour seats in the country.

Don't forget the identity checks this time, plus the post being problematic in many parts of the country. My postal ballot vote has not arrived yet, for instance. I think nthe combination of D-Day and betting scandals will cause many, many Tories not to vote at all. There is a danger that all the talk of a Supermajority for Labouir will lead to apathy about voting among the younger cohort, particularly if it's hot and sunny. The Brexit referendum result caused lots of Shoreditch hipsters to ask ''how did that happen?''. Answer - cos you were too idle to get off your thin arse, mate.

 

[simonw]

Personally, I would redact the second part of the postcode. A full postcode only covers a few addresses.

There are 18 addresses in that post code. There is nothing to identify who it was sent to. I'm not sure what the issue is.

 

[weeklycommuter]

I received today an election communication leaflet from a Tory candidate but it was from the Tory candidate in a neighbouring constituency not the Tory candidate in the constituency that includes my address and on the postal ballot paper which I received and posted last week.

 

[Kaliwax]

I'll think I'll be voting for the SDP, I have an SDP candidate in my area, and I like the sound of their policies. I had the reform and tory leaflets come through the post today.

 

[brad465]

Here in Taunton, the only stuff I have had is from the communist party. I didnt know they still existed!

As someone else in Taunton I've only had Lib Dem material, which is no surprise given this a target seat for them. Unless someone else in my house received material from other parties that they binned while I was on holiday last week.