HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Is that a reason to pour endless money into it regardless of huge endemic waste and inefficiency? Should the NHS be given a blank cheque by taxpayers?

The short answer to both your questions is "yes".

 

[Bletchleyite]

Agreed, however the bit being cut is the cheap bit (2a).

Also an easier bit to reinstate later, though, as it's through farmland. If Euston was cancelled that'd never be able to be reinstated - compulsory purchasing a load of run down old terraced houses and small business premises plus a dated old Brutalist hotel is one thing, compulsory purchasing a modern high-value development is entirely another.

 

[Irascible]

As I've previously mentioned, the amount spent on the whole of HS2 construction is spent on the NHS every single year. Are people up in arms about the cost of that too? Or is that conveniently ignored?

The NHS works for everyone. Or at least it would if it hadn't spent the last few decades being wrecked for the benefit of idealogues & "investors" looking to bleed off public cash via backdoor privatisation. Of course it's protected, look how many fingers are stuck in it now.

-

So what''s the BCR for the northern phases vs the BCR of Euston without them... sigh.

 

[12LDA28C]

The short answer to both your questions is "yes".

Really? The NHS should have no responsibility to become more efficient and less wasteful, with more money going into actual patient care than wasted elsewhere in layers of management and bureaucracy? Right!

 

[Bletchleyite]

You probably end up with three Manchester, three Birmingham, two Liverpool and at least one Northern WCML. If north Wales electrification goes forward as sunak claims you will need another for that.

The likely service pattern is essentially "what's there now including the planned second Liverpool, but a bit faster". The key gain is south of Hanslope Junction where a lot more local services and freight can be added, recognising that Milton Keynes will have a population heading for 500K by the time the whole thing was originally going to fully open.

Thus it'll likely be:

3 Brum
3 Manchester
2 Liverpool
1 N Wales (with the electrification proposal)
1 Glasgow

And on the classic line IC
1 Manchester
2 Birmingham

If they still go with 200m units probably also a Lancaster semifast, as taking 65m off the length of the Glasgows but not removing stops would be a recipe for overcrowding. But I suspect we'll see the order changed for units 250-300m long instead.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Really? The NHS should have no responsibility to become more efficient and less wasteful, with more money going into actual patient care than wasted elsewhere in layers of management and bureaucracy? Right!

Where has your information on the stated NHS inefficiency and wastefulness come from?

 

[12LDA28C]

Where has your information on the stated NHS inefficiency and wastefulness come from?

People who work in the industry.

 

[class ep-09]

The problem with HS2 is that it's an astounding 10x the cost of similar schemes abroad.

£100 bn is about £3,000 per taxpayer. You could make all rail travel free for that kind of money (fares raised £8bn last year)

Or, if we could build it for the same price as the French/Spanish, we could get HS3 to HS10 for the same price.

It's not the idea of HS2 that people object to, it's the cost.

If you divide that by 20 years it would take, yours £3000 is £150 per year , per taxpayer .

 

[Arkeeos]

If you divide that by 20 years it would take, yours £3000 is £150 per year , per taxpayer .

And if you divide by the century it would last for, its about £30 a year.

 

[Snow1964]

Just released by PMs office

Looks like it has proposed journey times and projects of Network North

Still to read it all

PM redirects HS2 funding to revolutionise transport across the North and Midlands

A revolution in the country’s transport infrastructure will see billions of pounds redirected from spiralling HS2 costs to build the daily connections that people depend on – unlocking potential, driving growth and transforming communities.

www.gov.uk

 

[Bantamzen]

Just released by PMs office

Looks like it has proposed journey times and projects of Network North

Still to read it all

PM redirects HS2 funding to revolutionise transport across the North and Midlands

A revolution in the country’s transport infrastructure will see billions of pounds redirected from spiralling HS2 costs to build the daily connections that people depend on – unlocking potential, driving growth and transforming communities.

www.gov.uk

That logo, screams 90's WordArt...

 

[Arkeeos]

Just released by PMs office

Looks like it has proposed journey times and projects of Network North

Still to read it all

PM redirects HS2 funding to revolutionise transport across the North and Midlands

A revolution in the country’s transport infrastructure will see billions of pounds redirected from spiralling HS2 costs to build the daily connections that people depend on – unlocking potential, driving growth and transforming communities.

www.gov.uk

"£2.5 billion to deliver a new mass transit system in West Yorkshire;" That was already the excuse given to cancel the eastern leg to Leeds, now its also the excuse to cancel the other northern leg?

 

[HSTEd]

Just released by PMs office

Looks like it has proposed journey times and projects of Network North

Still to read it all

PM redirects HS2 funding to revolutionise transport across the North and Midlands

A revolution in the country’s transport infrastructure will see billions of pounds redirected from spiralling HS2 costs to build the daily connections that people depend on – unlocking potential, driving growth and transforming communities.

www.gov.uk

Capital funding diverted to bus fare subsidies.

Wonderful.

In a few years, the money will all be gone and we will have nothing to show for it, standard British politician thinking.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2023 ==

"£2.5 billion to deliver a new mass transit system in West Yorkshire;" That was already the excuse given to cancel the eastern leg to Leeds, now its also the excuse to cancel the other northern leg?

What will you actually get for £2.5bn?
A tram line, maybe?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2023 ==

And on the classic line IC
1 Manchester
2 Birmingham

Is there still a case, after coronavirus, for any post HS2 classic ICWC service at all?

Traffic is hardly strong on the line even today, compared to pre-coronavirus norms.
What about just dropping the classic ICWC service entirely and folding it into the London Midland timetable?

 

[ConorW2000]

Sunak failed to mention that the Birmingham-Crewe stretch of HS2 already had approval by Parliament, so presumably they will have to pass a new Act of Parliament?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is there still a case, after coronavirus, for any post HS2 classic ICWC service at all?

Yes, unless you think Milton Keynes, Rugby and Watford have just disappeared.

What about just dropping the classic ICWC service entirely and folding it into the London Midland timetable?

Who operates it is less important, you could indeed do that. Though there is a case for ensuring "Avanti Hispeed" crews still sign the south WCML because otherwise you can't divert in the event of engineering work or disruption.

 

[HSTEd]

Sunak failed to mention that the Birmingham-Crewe stretch of HS2 already had approval by Parliament.

At absolute most the act of parliament allows Starmer to resurrect the scheme should he win the next election, because the authorities to acquire the land will not have been extinguished yet.

But that's about it, as far as actually building it, Parliamentary approval is inconsequential.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2023 ==

Yes, unless you think Milton Keynes, Rugby and Watford have just disappeared.

Do MKC, Rugby and Watford justify a Class 390 by themselves?

Who operates it is less important, you could indeed do that.

It matters what stock operates it though, as it will have significant impacts on the costs.
I would suggest a total WCML south recast with a uniform set of services operated by London Midland/Successor company, using flat front EMUs with gangways.

Dump all the catering etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do MKC, Rugby and Watford justify a Class 390 by themselves?

MKC, Rugby and Watford justify a fast service to Euston (nonstop, or at most calling at MKC and Watford) and to Birmingham (calling at no more than Rugby, Cov and Intl) and at least Crewe (not calling all stations on the TV), yes. MK will have a population of 500K before long, which would make it the 14th largest settlement in the UK, and most of the basis of HS2 P1 is about enhancing its service.

It matters what stock operates it though, as it will have significant impacts on the costs.
I would suggest a total WCML south recast with a uniform set of services operated by London Midland/Successor company, using flat front EMUs with gangways.

Dump all the catering etc.

As long as the fares are also cut to LNR Only levels I suspect a lot of people would be quite happy with that.

 

[The Planner]

Do MKC, Rugby and Watford justify a Class 390 by themselves?

Yes

It matters what stock operates it though, as it will have significant impacts on the costs.
I would suggest a total WCML south recast with a uniform set of services operated by London Midland/Successor company, using flat front EMUs with gangways.

A recast would have to happen anyway.

 

[AndrewE]

Don valley line? Uh oh looks like Sunak might have look at the Woodhead tunnel.

No, it's local services on the Stocksbridge line that he already announced 2 years ago (of course)

https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/transport/long-lost-sheffield-railway-route-could-reopen-3436437:

Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced in his Autumn Budget that plans to restore the Don Valley line, with stops at Deepcar, Oughtibridge, Wadsley Bridge, Neepsend and possibly even Kelham Island, had been awarded a slice of the Government’s £500 million Restoring Your Railway Fund.
The plans also involve reopening Sheffield Victoria station, which could serve a new Barrow Hill line to Chesterfield, stopping at Darnall, the Advanced Manufacturing Park, Woodhouse and other new stations, similar funding for which was granted last year.

Don't believe a word that he says.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Sunak appears to have made the sensible decision to kick the expensive white elephant of HS2 phase 2b/NPR into the long grass, so presumably the bill currently in progress through the Westminster Parliament will be withdrawn. It is good that this is to be done in Manchester to humiliate Burnham.

However, what will happen with HS2 phase 2a? Will the works just be mothballed and the powers granted to construct it be preserved, so that the scheme could be resurrected at a later date, or will the scheme be actively cancelled by destroying the works already done and/or actively cancelling the authority to construct it? Not constructing phase 2a means that a bottleneck will remain on the WCML between Lichfield and Stafford, so I would hope that in the fullness of time it could be built, and also enable trains to run non-stop from Birmingham to Crewe to bypass the congested line via Wolverhampton.

Well I would have hoped HS2 Phase2a survived as it was not a costly bit. There must be scope as otherwise why was Phase2 split into a and b in the first place ?.

I can imagine some other party or private enterprise might build Phase2a. An opportunity to de-scope it a little. Tragically probably reduce the line speed so it does not match Phase1.

At absolute most the act of parliament allows Starmer to resurrect the scheme should he win the next election, because the authorities to acquire the land will not have been extinguished yet.

But that's about it, as far as actually building it, Parliamentary approval is inconsequential.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2023 ==


Do MKC, Rugby and Watford justify a Class 390 by themselves?


It matters what stock operates it though, as it will have significant impacts on the costs.
I would suggest a total WCML south recast with a uniform set of services operated by London Midland/Successor company, using flat front EMUs with gangways.

Dump all the catering etc.

This sort of debate would have happened irrespective of how far North HS2 got. If Euston did not go ahead and also while OOC is the temporary terminus there is a huge debate to be had over how many IC services go down HS2.

Lets see what the track access charges are for HS2 compared to the WCML.

---

What I can also see is no new stock being built. After all only Birmingham will 100% justify higher speed trains. And only Birmingham will be able to benefit from trains built to fit a larger loading gauge and longer platforms. I can see Pendolinos being stretched to their envisaged top speed - was that 155mph ?. of 140mph.

Or will Avanti decide the benefits of 155mph 140mph are outweighed by the extra costs.

As for the Northern end - The ball is now firmly in the NPR court.

As for the Southern WCML - might maintenance costs fall as hardly any justification for 125mph. The decline of a once great route !

 

[HSTEd]

What I can also see is no new stock being built. After all only Birmingham will 100% justify higher speed trains. And only Birmingham will be able to benefit from trains built to fit a larger loading gauge. I can see Pendolinos being stretched to their envisaged top speed - was that 155mph ?.

Or will Avanti decide the benefits of 155mph are outweighed by the extra costs.

140mph is the design top speed, but the Class 390s will be worn out by then.

As for the Northern end - The ball is now firmly in the NPR court.

Well by cancelling HS2 Phase 2b they've ripped the heart out of NPR, so I wouldn't expect much at all from the government on that.

 

[lachlan]

The likely service pattern is essentially "what's there now including the planned second Liverpool, but a bit faster". The key gain is south of Hanslope Junction where a lot more local services and freight can be added, recognising that Milton Keynes will have a population heading for 500K by the time the whole thing was originally going to fully open.

Thus it'll likely be:

3 Brum
3 Manchester
2 Liverpool
1 N Wales (with the electrification proposal)
1 Glasgow

And on the classic line IC
1 Manchester
2 Birmingham

If they still go with 200m units probably also a Lancaster semifast, as taking 65m off the length of the Glasgows but not removing stops would be a recipe for overcrowding. But I suspect we'll see the order changed for units 250-300m long instead.

Disappointing if they don’t run any Edinburgh services. I was hoping changing from GWR to a Scotland-bound train at OOC would ease travel to the northeast of Scotland. Glasgow services aren’t so useful due to having to change stations

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes

A recast would have to happen anyway.

To be fair I can see the sense in everything on the classic WCML being operated by something like the Class 730 at 110mph, given that it's about connectivity. But there's also the point that having "Avanti Hispeed" crews sign the south WCML (which would be enabled by having them run those 3-4 trains that way) would allow more flexibility in the case of engineering work or HS2 being closed due to an incident. So I think on balance keeping a few "Avanti West Coast" services, presumably using 200m HS2 units, on the WCML is probably a good plan.

 

[HSTEd]

Disappointing if they don’t run any Edinburgh services. I was hoping changing from GWR to a Scotland-bound train at OOC would ease travel to the northeast of Scotland. Glasgow services aren’t so useful due to having to change stations

It's unlikely they would be fast enough to beat the ECML, so probably not worth it.

 

[Peter Sarf]

140mph is the design top speed, but the Class 390s will be worn out by then.


Well by cancelling HS2 Phase 2b they've ripped the heart out of NPR, so I wouldn't expect much at all from the government on that.

Thanks - corrected.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Disappointing if they don’t run any Edinburgh services. I was hoping changing from GWR to a Scotland-bound train at OOC would ease travel to the northeast of Scotland. Glasgow services aren’t so useful due to having to change stations

There's little point bothering about Edinburgh as the ECML will be faster. However I do see your point. A change at Manchester or Birmingham would allow you a fairly easy connection without faffing about crossing London, though.

 

[HSTEd]

To be fair I can see the sense in everything on the classic WCML being operated by something like the Class 730 at 110mph, given that it's about connectivity. But there's also the point that having "Avanti Hispeed" crews sign the south WCML (which would be enabled by having them run those 3-4 trains that way) would allow more flexibility in the case of engineering work or HS2 being closed due to an incident. So I think on balance keeping a few "Avanti West Coast" services, presumably using 200m HS2 units, on the WCML.

There will be workforce relations implications to having WCML classic services operated by the same TOC that operates the high speed services, so I would expect them to be separate TOCs even if they are branded similarly.

(The forbidden three letter acronym)

 

[lachlan]

There's little point bothering about Edinburgh as the ECML will be faster. However I do see your point. A change at Manchester or Birmingham would allow you a fairly easy connection without faffing about crossing London, though.

Unfortunately Manchester and Birmingham already require a change. I always thought the number of journeys where Euston-Paddington transfers are removed with a change at OOC was a massive benefit of HS2 that wasn’t shouted about enough - or does everyone expect me just fly from Scotland to the south west?

 

[Bletchleyite]

There will be workforce relations implications to having WCML classic services operated by the same TOC that operates the high speed services, so I would expect them to be separate TOCs even if they are branded similarly.

(The forbidden three letter acronym)

Without starting a debate about that acronym, the idea of single-crewed InterCity trains is very unlikely (does anywhere else in the world do that?), so it's just not worth the argument. Thus I'd expect HS2 services to be guarded.

You could do it HS1-style or Lumo-style with stewards or super-OBSs, but you wouldn't really save any money so it's not worth the unrest.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2023 ==

Unfortunately Manchester and Birmingham already require a change. I always thought the number of journeys where Euston-Paddington transfers are removed with a change at OOC was a massive benefit of HS2 that wasn’t shouted about enough - or does everyone expect me just fly from Scotland to the south west?

I know it's rubbish, but XC operate direct hourly services from Edinburgh to the South West and vice versa if that's your priority. Personally I'd not have an issue with changing at OOC and Manc Picc, I often engineer in a change at Picc when going Cumbria or Scotland to MKC, it's handy to grab some food rather than being stuck with the poor on board selection.

 

[Krokodil]

But I suspect we'll see the order changed for units 250-300m long instead.

Probably with Hitachi charging far more for a last-minute variation than if the government had taken them up on it when they first suggested the idea.

MKC, Rugby and Watford justify a fast service to Euston (nonstop, or at most calling at MKC and Watford) and to Birmingham (calling at no more than Rugby, Cov and Intl) and at least Crewe (not calling all stations on the TV), yes. MK will have a population of 500K before long, which would make it the 14th largest settlement in the UK, and most of the basis of HS2 P1 is about enhancing its service.

For sure, but with the 390s life-expired there won't be a justification for a new generation of 125mph tilting trains. 110mph units with a suitable seating layout would suffice.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2023 ==

I know it's rubbish, but XC operate direct hourly services from Edinburgh to the South West and vice versa if that's your priority

I would think that the idea of using XC was discounted first, before the idea of going via London was even considered. I've done seven hours on a Voyager once, and that was quite enough.