HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Krokodil]

The scheme was already assessed as low value for moeny by January 2020, as the NAO notes (pg 57/66):

What was the BCR for the Chiltern NIMBY tunnels? Was it really worth specifying them?

Since most future rail transport plans are effectively dead, what should happen now? What should the next governments transport policy look like if High speed lines are out of question for the foreseeable future.

I think that this is what the PM might have in mind:

The Financial Times is reporting that the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has saved Euston section, as not building to Central London would damage Britains reputation

Cancelling Leeds, Golborne and now Manchester didn't damage the UK's reputation then Mr Chancellor?

Because leisure travellers don't use high-speed rail? "Travelling patterns have changed" is evidently the Tories' explanation for every terrible rail decision they make no matter how disconnected it is.

A government spokesman was on the TV claiming that passenger numbers are down by 30%. I'm afraid that my reaction was unprintable. What a load of bovine excrement.

 

[12LDA28C]

Sunak appears to have made the sensible decision to kick the expensive white elephant of HS2 phase 2b/NPR into the long grass, so presumably the bill currently in progress through the Westminster Parliament will be withdrawn. It is good that this is to be done in Manchester to humiliate Burnham.

I really hope this is not intended to be taken as a serious post. This is sarcasm, right?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Would that have been avoided under BR? Would we already have a high speed line if it wasn't for privatisation?

Somewhat of a counterfactual historian on this issue (hence my profile picture of an unbuilt Networker), but BR looked briefly at a high-speed line as part of the Intercity 250 project, which was discarded earlier on circa 1989-1990 in favour of upgrading the WCML to 155 mph. Had BR survived, it's possible it would have got the WCML to 125 mph, 155 seems unlikely, but with the 90s recession, its possible there would have been no change at all throughout the 90s.

 

[Bantamzen]

"Network North", the new buzz name..

HS2 is dead in the north. HS2a & HS2b gone.

 

[Austriantrain]

I really hope this is not intended to be taken as a serious post. This is sarcasm, right?

Don‘t you know your fellow Posters? In his case, no, it‘s not sarcasm.

 

[BAFRA77]

There we go - official now - rest of HS2 has been cancelled

 

[Bantamzen]

There we go - official now - rest of HS2 has been cancelled

And NPR via Bradford mentioned again, until it gets un-mentioned again...

 

[BAFRA77]

So sounds like a load of that cash is going on road building projects.

Colour me extremely shocked.

 

[Arkeeos]

Don valley line? Uh oh looks like Sunak might have look at the Woodhead tunnel.

 

[Bantamzen]

Don valley line? Uh oh looks like Sunak might have look at the Woodhead tunnel.

Don't worry, like everything else it will get floated around for a few months, whilst RUK will dedicate itself to arguing over the colour and types of seats for the Woodhead trains. Then the government will say "Woodhead who?", and all will be forgotten again.

 

[Aaron_TTL]

Interesting he said there would be lots of new homes on the Euston site.. Is the train station not going to be as big as previously planned?

 

[HSTEd]

Don valley line? Uh oh looks like Sunak might have look at the Woodhead tunnel.

It's like we are going around in circles

 

[Sad Sprinter]

"Network North", the new buzz name..

HS2 is dead in the north. HS2a & HS2b gone.

Fingers crossed for a South East variant coming soon, what could it be? How about Network SouthEast?!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Interesting he said there would be lots of new homes on the Euston site.. Is the train station not going to be as big as previously planned?

I think the idea is to put them on top.

 

[Bantamzen]

Fingers crossed for a South East variant coming soon, what could it be? How about Network SouthEast?!

Ha ha! Be careful what you wish for, a North inspired NSE would involve single tracking, bi-hourly services using ancient DMUs...

 

[Rail Quest]

Sunak's mentioned protecting the 15 billion that was set aside for liverpool-manchester. Im assuming this is in reference to NPR but said project originally planned to use hs2 2b, then surely that 15 billion could double in order for that upgrade to take place?

 

[aavm]

The problem with HS2 is that it's an astounding 10x the cost of similar schemes abroad.

£100 bn is about £3,000 per taxpayer. You could make all rail travel free for that kind of money (fares raised £8bn last year)

Or, if we could build it for the same price as the French/Spanish, we could get HS3 to HS10 for the same price.

It's not the idea of HS2 that people object to, it's the cost.

 

[Arkeeos]

I think the idea is to put them on top.

I think its selling the land off and descoping the platforms, unfortunately, salt the earth so it can never happen.

 

[12LDA28C]

It's not the idea of HS2 that people object to, it's the cost.

As I've previously mentioned, the amount spent on the whole of HS2 construction is spent on the NHS every single year. Are people up in arms about the cost of that too? Or is that conveniently ignored?

 

[Energy]

It's not the idea of HS2 that people object to, it's the cost.

Agreed, however the bit being cut is the cheap bit (2a).

 

[HurdyGurdy]

"Network North", the new buzz name..

The name was coined to describe the alternative to HS2/NPR proposed by Colin Elliff and Quentin Macdonald.

It could be that Sunak's great new vision for rail in the North is that plan, revitalised.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Don valley line? Uh oh looks like Sunak might have look at the Woodhead tunnel.

I think the Don Valley line refers to the currently proposed reopening of stations on the "Old Road" from Chesterfield into Sheffield and not Woodhead. Rather surprisingly (not) that does pass through a marginal seat or two.

 

[12LDA28C]

Sunak is claiming that the money saved (£36 Billion) will all be spent on alternative projects...

Firstly, where is he getting that figure from and secondly we were always told that the money created to pay for HS2 was only available for that specific project. Has that now changed? Of course, Sunak can make whatever promises he likes, safe in the knowledge that him and his inept Government (hopefully) won't be around to make good on those promises.

 

[Energy]

Firstly, where is he getting that figure from and secondly we were always told that the money created to pay for HS2 was only available for that specific project. Has that now changed?

No, we've got Rishi magic maths. Lots of these projects have bad business cases but the government wants to subsidise them because they are on marginal seats.

 

[dougofakkad]

I think its selling the land off and descoping the platforms, unfortunately, salt the earth so it can never happen.

I'm only reading a summary so might be missing lots of detail, but didn't he say Euston is still going ahead?

 

[800001]

I'm only reading a summary so might be missing lots of detail, but didn't he say Euston is still going ahead?

Yes he did, didn’t say how big/how many platforms though.

 

[HSTEd]

I think its selling the land off and descoping the platforms, unfortunately, salt the earth so it can never happen.

There is likely to a bunch of space in the classic platforms once the bulk of long distance traffic moves on to HS2.

As I've previously mentioned, the amount spent on the whole of HS2 construction is spent on the NHS every single year. Are people up in arms about the cost of that too? Or is that conveniently ignored?

People see rather more benefits from the NHS than HS2 though.

 

[jfowkes]

I'm only reading a summary so might be missing lots of detail, but didn't he say Euston is still going ahead?

Yes but if HS2 is only going to Birmingham, with a few services to Manchester and Liverpool, you don't need anywhere near as many platforms.

 

[HSTEd]

Or, if we could build it for the same price as the French/Spanish, we could get HS3 to HS10 for the same price.

It's not the idea of HS2 that people object to, it's the cost.

There is zero interest in actually fixing the problems that cause these kinds of huge costs though.

Even TPRU is now over £11bn and climbing. It seems the industry is going to face it's reckoning sooner than I expected.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2023 ==

Yes but if HS2 is only going to Birmingham, with a few services to Manchester and Liverpool, you don't need anywhere near as many platforms.

You probably end up with three Manchester, three Birmingham, two Liverpool and at least one Northern WCML. If north Wales electrification goes forward as sunak claims you will need another for that.

Add a couple more for contingency or flooding the market with cheap advances and you could be looking at 12-13tph.

 

[12LDA28C]

People see rather more benefits from the NHS than HS2 though.

Is that a reason to pour endless money into it regardless of huge endemic waste and inefficiency? Should the NHS be given a blank cheque by taxpayers?