More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[12LDA28C]

Its costing far too much for the benefits. The money involved could have delivered a decent public transport system around the countries large cities which would have benefited a greater number of people.

Anyhow as i say now its started its plain daft not to deliver Euston to Crewe.

The money involved would simply not exist if HS2 were not being built, so no it couldn't have been used for any other projects.

 

[zwk500]

You've got Kings Cross and St Pancras a 10 minute walk away on the Euston Road (with a walkway planned for HS2).

What walkway planned for HS2? They are adding a link to Euston Square Underground. I do agree though that connections to Victoria and Waterloo are poor from OOC using the Elizabeth Line.

The only connection between Euston and St Pancras planned for HS2 is the tidying up of Phoenix road, which is a TfL project not directly connected to HS2.

People seem to have taken some of the XR2 musings as gospel for HS2.

 

[jfowkes]

The money involved would simply not exist if HS2 were not being built, so no it couldn't have been used for any other projects.

The money came from somewhere with a big "HS2" sticker on it.
Could the same money not have come from the same place but with different stickers on it?

(I support building HS2 in full but I never really understood this argument)

 

[najaB]

Could the same money not have come from the same place but with different stickers on it?

Yes, it could have. But it's a lot easier (think time and paperwork) to fund one project that costs £100B than 100 projects of £1B, or 100,000 projects of £10M, etc.

 

[tomuk]

The money came from somewhere with a big "HS2" sticker on it.
Could the same money not have come from the same place but with different stickers on it?

(I support building HS2 in full but I never really understood this argument)

Yes lots of individual schemes cold have been funded with the HS2 money each would have to justified and approved with whatever BCR they may have. The IRP is the result of such trade-offs informed by the infrastructure Commission report. IRP is Leeds Trams and NPR (Rational) instead of HS2 Eastern Leg.

 

[Xavi]

That assumes they actually go ahead with the build of the tunnels to Euston.

They could just not build the tunnels, saving money without having to admit that Euston build is cancelled.

Then in a few years they will point to the enormously increased cost of the Euston project as an excuse to axe it and sell the land to some gigantic conglomerate for redevelopment.

If you are willing to tolerate Fenchurch Street levels of reliability, you can get a lot of trains into OOC.

You can’t start the build of OOC station without cancelling the tunnels. I don’t believe any government making that choice.

The delays or ‘pause’ are all about Treasury controlling cash flow, not the total spend.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Apr 2023 ==

As I understand it, once OOC HS2 opens (or is beyond a certain point in construction), the TBM's must be in the ground and have at least started a short distance of the Euston tunnels.
Otherwise, there's no way of getting them down there.


m

Correct. The civil work on the tunnels must be complete before the OOC station build starts. Otherwise, you can’t remove spoil or replenish the TBMs.

 

[najaB]

Correct. The civil work on the tunnels must be complete before the OOC station build starts. Otherwise, you can’t remove spoil or replenish the TBMs.

I am sure that, if it was sufficiently expedient to do so, the tunnel drive could be started, the station built and a separate access created to allow the removal of spoil and supply of ring segments.

It wouldn't be cheap, but it could be done.

 

[Xavi]

I am sure that, if it was sufficiently expedient to do so, the tunnel drive could be started, the station built and a separate access created to allow the removal of spoil and supply of ring segments.

It wouldn't be cheap, but it could be done.

Agreed, not impossible but good luck finding acceptable and practical access - there’s a reason a tunnel is needed.

 

[Energy]

The problem with HS2 was that the project was assessed as giving poor value for money, even by DfT who were promoting it. That was even after including the Wider Economic Impacts, and before the recent spiralling of costs.

HS2 Phase One full business case

The full business case for the HS2 Phase One route from Birmingham to London.

www.gov.uk

Ses page 46. BCR of the full Y network = 1.49 (low value for money). And that low number depended on reaching Leeds, which was scrapped in the IRP.

1.49 isn't that bad, originally HS2 was something like 2.30.

The money came from somewhere with a big "HS2" sticker on it.
Could the same money not have come from the same place but with different stickers on it?

(I support building HS2 in full but I never really understood this argument)

The source is the government loaning the money, HS2 can afford to pay it off (positive BCR and all that).

 

[Nottingham59]

The source is the government loaning the money, HS2 can afford to pay it off (positive BCR and all that).

I'm afraid BCR doesn't work like that. The C in BCR is the net cost to the taxpayer, i.e. the cost of building the line (108bn) offset by the increased ticket sales expected over the next 60 years (45bn). So HS2 will never generate the cash to pay off its construction costs. The benefits, B, are the wider societal benefits which are used to justify the spending, and by the DfTs own figures these represent poor value for money.

 

[tomuk]

The source is the government loaning the money, HS2 can afford to pay it off (positive BCR and all that).

The money just comes out of the same post as all other expenditure, depending on tax receipts for the year if there is a deficit the government may need to sell some gilts and borrow the money but it isn't specifically tied to HS2 in any way.

 

[Energy]

@Nottingham59 (can't embed your message properly) thanks for the correction, my understanding of BCR wasn't quite right. In 2010 the construction costs were estimated at £30.9 - 36 billion excluding rolling stock which would have made money. Those were low estimates though.

The money just comes out of the same post as all other expenditure, depending on tax receipts for the year if there is a deficit the government may need to sell some gilts and borrow the money but it isn't specifically tied to HS2 in any way.

Thanks, I need to look further into government expenditure

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Mark Harper had this comment at todays Transport Committee

Colleagues on the Committee will be aware that we have had to pause some parts of delivering HS2. We wanted to go full steam ahead on phase 1, the section that is already being built, which is the right thing to do from the point of view of the taxpayer and efficient use of public money. We have had to slow down the next section, phase 2a, but we will be back on track by the time you get to phase 2b. We had to make that difficult decision to deal with the impact of inflation.

Theres plenty more questioning on HS2 and the Euston decision far too much to post but link is above for others to wade through and pick out any salient points

 

[Jonny]

More importantly, where do they intend for all the people to go from Old Oak Common station once they have alighted?

 

[tomuk]

More importantly, where do they intend for all the people to go from Old Oak Common station once they have alighted?

Mainly the 24+ tph Elizabeth Line plus GWR and Hex stopping\starting from the OOC mainline platforms. There will also be a bus interchange and at some point one or more Overground stations.

 

[AlbertBeale]

Yes, it could have. But it's a lot easier (think time and paperwork) to fund one project that costs £100B than 100 projects of £1B, or 100,000 projects of £10M, etc.

Er - I think that comparison should be 10,000 projects of £10M.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The money just comes out of the same post as all other expenditure, depending on tax receipts for the year if there is a deficit the government may need to sell some gilts and borrow the money but it isn't specifically tied to HS2 in any way.

For capital projects like HS2, the government borrows on the market for the long term, it doesn't come out of current tax receipts.
It increases interest payments, which do come out of taxation, but there's no equivalence between (eg) paying TOCs to run trains and paying HS2 to build a new railway.
HS2 money is specifically tied to the HS2 project, same as it would be for building an aircraft carrier or motorway.

 

[Bald Rick]

Mainly the 24+ tph Elizabeth Line plus GWR and Hex stopping\starting from the OOC mainline platforms. There will also be a bus interchange and at some point one or more Overground stations.

I think it’s optimistic to expect 24tph to OOC. Let alone ‘+’

 

[najaB]

Er - I think that comparison should be 10,000 projects of £10M.

Oops!

 

[Nottingham59]

I think it’s optimistic to expect 24tph to OOC. Let alone ‘+’

I thought the EL was upgrading to 24tph in May? And the 12tph reversals will go through to OOC eventually?

 

[Bald Rick]

I thought the EL was upgrading to 24tph in May?

Correct.

And the 12tph reversals will go through to OOC eventually?

That’s the problem…

 

[eh_oh]

Is the CBTC signalling being extended to OOC, and will terminating XR trains have their own bay platforms?

 

[Nottingham59]

Mark Harper had this comment at todays Transport Committee

I notice he had some announcement about Leeds, but had to delay that because of the rules about the local elections.

On the overall picture, the Government remain committed to the integrated rail plan and the budget that was set out at the time it was published. .... I had hoped to be able to deal with the Leeds study and Bradford today. Frustratingly, because there are elections in both those places, I am not able to set that out today. The purdah rules set out what you can and can’t say about things that affect particular localities, but I hope to be able to say more about that after the local elections. The Government remain committed to delivering the integrated rail plan.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is the CBTC signalling being extended to OOC, and will terminating XR trains have their own bay platforms?

No and yes.
OOC has NR signalling and is unlikely to change for the new station (though it might go to ETCS in the future).
Each of the 4 current lines will split to deliver an island platform with two faces, which provide the capacity to reverse EL trains.

 

[swt_passenger]

Is the CBTC signalling being extended to OOC,

I don’t know,

and will terminating XR trains have their own bay platforms?

Not dedicated terminal bays. There will be four through platforms on the reliefs, the idea being that terminating trains would normally use the middle pair of the four. Effectively they’d operate the same way as on the relief side at Reading.

 

[kevin_roche]

Is the CBTC signalling being extended to OOC, and will terminating XR trains have their own bay platforms?

I don't think it will be the current CBTC, which is based on Siemens Trainguard. ETCS is supposed to be used on this part of the GWML by the time OOC is complete. When CBTC was originally specified for the tunnels there was a stipulation that it be replaced by ETCS at a later date, so who knows what will be used? Choices are the current messy mixture of CBTC + ETCS L2, All ETCS L2, ETCS L3 or some other intermediate version of ETCS.

 

[Bald Rick]

Is the CBTC signalling being extended to OOC

Well that’s one of the issues. It’s more likely to be ETCS with ATO, but…

there’s also a question about where the extra trains are coming from.

And how to make a viable timetable.

 

[Tezza1978]

Agreed, not impossible but good luck finding acceptable and practical access - there’s a reason a tunnel is needed.

Precisely. Which is why the access tunnel towards Euston is underway as of this week and being built as we speak.

The conspiracy theorists who seem to KNOW that OOC will be the permanent end of the line are talking nonsense frankly. Have they seen the Euston works (which were still ongoing 2 days ago!). It will go to Euston I am nigh on 100% certain.

 

[Danfilm007]

It will go to Euston I am nigh on 100% certain.

It was confirmed it was going to - but it was never part of Phase 1 but 2b I think? Open to cans of beans thrown at me if incorrect...

 

[zwk500]

It was confirmed it was going to - but it was never part of Phase 1 but 2b I think? Open to cans of beans thrown at me if incorrect...

99% sure it was part of Phase 1, just was always planned to be a few years later.