More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[SCDR_WMR]

The initial service might be a self contained OOC to Curzon Street service but that will only provide 3tph. They want to connect to the WCML (at Handsacre), allowing 6tph, as soon as possible.

They absolutely should continue with Handsacre, but whether they will or not in the short term only those in Government know.

The whole country seems to be in a managed decline. This project is no different

 

[zwk500]

It'll be almost as quick to use the conventional train from Euston to Crewe by the time the punter's in London have got to Old Oak Common.

If your destination is Canary Wharf or Bond Street Elizabeth Line may well be quicker.

 

[snowball]

As quoted, the pause just affected Euston and Phase 2a. The implication therefore is that work in this area continues

Originally it was not at all clear. Ministerial statements said things like "Birmingham to Manchester is being paused" and "OOC to Curzon Street is being prioritised", suggesting that the pause might include the north end of phase 1. Contractors working in the Lichfield area put up signs on construction compounds saying work was stopping (see #696). There were discussions over several pages of this thread. The rail minister was subjected to a round of questions in parliament (see #773). Michael Fabricant, MP for Lichfield, asked him about this point, and his reply included the words "I need to give my hon. Friend a little more clarity about what that will mean" - apparently indicating that he wasn't entirely sure at the time and would contact him later.

However, I think it is now clear that work is continuing between the delta junction and Handsacre.

 

[12LDA28C]

Ive been dead against this project for a decade

Any particular reason why?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Any particular reason why?

Its costing far too much for the benefits. The money involved could have delivered a decent public transport system around the countries large cities which would have benefited a greater number of people.

Anyhow as i say now its started its plain daft not to deliver Euston to Crewe.

 

[MattRat]

Its costing far too much for the benefits. The money involved could have delivered a decent public transport system around the countries large cities which would have benefited a greater number of people.

It wouldn't. The cost is due to mismanagement, not the project itself. Any other project would also be mismanaged.

Japan can build a similar length Maglev under mountains quicker and for less, and even that's come under scrutiny for overruns. What does that tell you about the UK?

 

[Xavi]

I think today's news puts that in doubt.
It all depends what the length of pause is on the tunnelling.
The Euston TBMs will have been ordered and probably constructed already, ready to start next year.

As I have said, the pause is limited since the civil works on the tunnels must be completed before OOC station build. It’s all Treasury cash flow driven and is not new news, just a restatement of what was already known.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Apr 2023 ==

Its costing far too much for the benefits.

Almost solely because of construction prices inflation of 25%+ since the 2019 prices were set. Since there’s inflation across the economy, the value of the benefits will increase too.

Treasury does not acknowledge inflation, only dealing in cash sums. That’s where most the problems on all current capital projects stem from. The other problem being trying to satisfy too many stakeholders on Euston Station design rather than building tracks and platforms.

 

[MrJeeves]

Its costing far too much for the benefits.

I think this is an interesting video to compare HS2's costs and benefits to other rail projects in Europe:

 

[jfowkes]

Its costing far too much for the benefits. The money involved could have delivered a decent public transport system around the countries large cities which would have benefited a greater number of people.

I think this is an interesting video to compare HS2's costs and benefits to other rail projects in Europe:

The trouble with massive infrastructure projects is that the costs are more-or-less known now, but the benefits are not. While costs may increase with inflation and changes in scope etc. they will not change too radically. It might increase in cost by 2x to 3x, but not 50x or 100x.

Whereas benefits are far more nebulous. How can you calculate the benefits of a railway that will run for 100+ years? You'd have to know about (or be able to reasonably guess at) transport policy, housing policy, climate and environmental policy, population trends and demographic changes, work and employment habits and trends... all impossible to know with any degree of certainty.

Since any set of reasonable assumptions about those things is as valid as any other, you can argue that HS2 will be anywhere from terrible to fantastic and anywhere in-between. Any statement about the benefits of HS2 is, at best, an informed guess. You can point to Europe, Japan or China and look at high speed rail there, but there's always enough differences to discount evidence from those countries as not being applicable to the UK (from either side of the argument).

 

[Nottingham59]

Since any set of reasonable assumptions about those things is as valid as any other, you can argue that HS2 will be anywhere from terrible to fantastic and anywhere in-between.

The problem with HS2 was that the project was assessed as giving poor value for money, even by DfT who were promoting it. That was even after including the Wider Economic Impacts, and before the recent spiralling of costs.

HS2 Phase One full business case

The full business case for the HS2 Phase One route from Birmingham to London.

www.gov.uk

Ses page 46. BCR of the full Y network = 1.49 (low value for money). And that low number depended on reaching Leeds, which was scrapped in the IRP.

 

[Howardh]

Has there been any kind of survey to find out where arrivals at Euston ultimately end up (in London)? Such a survey might indicate whether more than half end up somewhere where it's quicker to go Old Oak/Elizabeth Line. If so, terminating for a few years at OOC might be acceptable.

Question from me, I travel to Brighton frequently, from Manchester, so if HS2 existed today from Birmingham to OOC, would it be quicker for me to use HS2 via OOC towards, say, London Bridge, or use the traditional route via Euston/tube/London Bridge (or walk to St Pancras)?

Plan; *Pendo Manchester > Birmingham x to HS2 > OOC > London Bridge*

I have a feeling that any time gain or loss would be pretty minimal, but I'm here to learn!

 

[Nottingham59]

Has there been any kind of survey to find out where arrivals at Euston ultimately end up (in London)?

Yes there was, but i cant find the refs now. As I remember it, about half the HS2 passengers would use OOC, and about half would use Euston.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Has there been any kind of survey to find out where arrivals at Euston ultimately end up (in London)? Such a survey might indicate whether more than half end up somewhere where it's quicker to go Old Oak/Elizabeth Line. If so, terminating for a few years at OOC might be acceptable.

Question from me, I travel to Brighton frequently, from Manchester, so if HS2 existed today from Birmingham to OOC, would it be quicker for me to use HS2 via OOC towards, say, London Bridge, or use the traditional route via Euston/tube/London Bridge (or walk to St Pancras)?

Plan; *Pendo Manchester > Birmingham x to HS2 > OOC > London Bridge*

I have a feeling that any time gain or loss would be pretty minimal, but I'm here to learn!

Seeing as i live on the Brighton line currently I would get a Thameslink to St.Pancras then walk over to Euston(10m). If you wanted to use HS2 thane Thameslink to Farringdon then a Crossrail down to Old OakCommon so not a great deal of differrence to get to terminal station so maybe slightly quicker via HS2 but depends where you then want to goto as would take 15m to walk up to New St!!

 

[Howardh]

Seeing as i live on the Brighton line currently I would get a Thameslink to St.Pancras then walk over to Euston(10m). If you wanted to use HS2 thane Thameslink to Farringdon then a Crossrail down to Old OakCommon so not a great deal of differrence to get to terminal station so maybe slightly quicker via HS2 but depends where you then want to goto as would take 15m to walk up to New St!!

Thanks, I think the only option from "up north" would be to use the current WCML until such time as HS2 reached Crewe and Euston. Basically, by the end of this decade, or is that now too optimistic?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I have a feeling that any time gain or loss would be pretty minimal, but I'm here to learn!

I think changing at Farringdon (EL/TL) would be fastest, after alighting at OOC, and maybe faster than staying on HS2 to Euston and then LU to London Bridge/Victoria.

 

[zwk500]

I think changing at Farringdon (EL/TL) would be fastest, after alighting at OOC, and maybe faster than staying on HS2 to Euston and then LU to London Bridge/Victoria.

Once Euston HS2 is open, I think Thameslink services (and GatEX) will be better served from Euston and walking to St Pancras or getting the Victoria line. However if you are aiming for a train that calls at Clapham Junction then it may well be quicker to get off at OOC and take the Overground (or a bus) to Clapham Jn.

 

[Nottingham59]

I don't know about Brighton, but to get to East Croydon from St Pancras, it always used to be faster to go via Victoria than trundle through City Thameslink. From Euston, I would expect via Victoria to be much faster, unless you wanted to avoid paying for mixed-mode routing.

 

[AlbertBeale]

Once Euston HS2 is open, I think Thameslink services (and GatEX) will be better served from Euston and walking to St Pancras or getting the Victoria line. However if you are aiming for a train that calls at Clapham Junction then it may well be quicker to get off at OOC and take the Overground (or a bus) to Clapham Jn.

But is there expected to be a straightforward connection from a new OOC station to the Overground route to Clapham Junction?

 

[zwk500]

But is there expected to be a straightforward connection from a new OOC station to the Overground route to Clapham Junction?

If they build the proposed new stations, yes. But that's why I also mentioned the bus.

 

[HSTEd]

As I’ve previously posted, the (cash flow) pause on the Euston tunnels cannot be indefinite since the TBMs must be launch and the tunnels complete before OOC station build commences.

That assumes they actually go ahead with the build of the tunnels to Euston.

They could just not build the tunnels, saving money without having to admit that Euston build is cancelled.

Then in a few years they will point to the enormously increased cost of the Euston project as an excuse to axe it and sell the land to some gigantic conglomerate for redevelopment.

If you are willing to tolerate Fenchurch Street levels of reliability, you can get a lot of trains into OOC.

 

[Meerkat]

If they build the proposed new stations, yes. But that's why I also mentioned the bus.

It’s not a straightforward connection - from the Clapham line the proposed station would be a hike from OOC

 

[DC1989]

A disaster from a country in terminal decline that doesn't even allow Greggs to sell Sausage rolls after 11pm

 

[BananaRepublic]

As I have said, the pause is limited since the civil works on the tunnels must be completed before OOC station build. It’s all Treasury cash flow driven and is not new news, just a restatement of what was already known.

As I understand it, once OOC HS2 opens (or is beyond a certain point in construction), the TBM's must be in the ground and have at least started a short distance of the Euston tunnels.
Otherwise, there's no way of getting them down there.


m

 

[AlbertBeale]

If they build the proposed new stations, yes. But that's why I also mentioned the bus.

I'm not aware of a good bus link from the OOC area to Clapham Junction...

 

[zwk500]

As I understand it, once OOC HS2 opens (or is beyond a certain point in construction), the TBM's must be in the ground and have at least started a short distance of the Euston tunnels.
Otherwise, there's no way of getting them down there.

Correct, it would require a lengthy closure to launch the TBMs if they waited until after service began.

I'm not aware of a good bus link from the OOC area to Clapham Junction...

Buses are inherently more flexible than trains, so can be ploanned later. I'd be astonished if the opening of OOC didn't have a major impact on bus routes in that part of London.

 

[gazzaa2]

That depends where people are coming from. There will be places where it is quicker to get to Old Oak Common, and there will still be overall journey time savings for other users.

Euston is very centrally located though within London. You're within a mile or 2 of a lot of major areas of central London or the west end. You've got Kings Cross and St Pancras a 10 minute walk away on the Euston Road (with a walkway planned for HS2). Victoria is 10 minutes on the tube, you're within 2 miles of Waterloo, Paddington and Marylebone etc etc.

Old Oak is 5+ miles away from most of these.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Correct, it would require a lengthy closure to launch the TBMs if they waited until after service began.

I think it'd require more than a lengthy closure.
Surely there'd be no physical way of getting the large TBM components into place?

......I'd be astonished if the opening of OOC didn't have a major impact on bus routes in that part of London.

Part of the OOC station plan, is the inclusion of a new bus terminus.
What TfL plan to do, is anybody's guess.


m

 

[tomuk]

Euston is very centrally located though within London. You're within a mile or 2 of a lot of major areas of central London or the west end. You've got Kings Cross and St Pancras a 10 minute walk away on the Euston Road (with a walkway planned for HS2). Victoria is 10 minutes on the tube, you're within 2 miles of Waterloo, Paddington and Marylebone etc etc.

Old Oak is 5+ miles away from most of these.

What walkway planned for HS2? They are adding a link to Euston Square Underground. I do agree though that connections to Victoria and Waterloo are poor from OOC using the Elizabeth Line.

 

[greyman42]

If your destination is Canary Wharf or Bond Street Elizabeth Line may well be quicker.

And more convenient.

 

[stuu]

Euston is very centrally located though within London. You're within a mile or 2 of a lot of major areas of central London or the west end. You've got Kings Cross and St Pancras a 10 minute walk away on the Euston Road (with a walkway planned for HS2). Victoria is 10 minutes on the tube, you're within 2 miles of Waterloo, Paddington and Marylebone etc etc.

Old Oak is 5+ miles away from most of these.

9 minutes on the EL from Bond Street, 11 from TCR to OOC. If you need to use the tube from Euston there is very little difference in time. The biggest problem is the reliance on the EL alone