When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[WatcherZero]

It's interesting that Wallace has emerged as something of a dark horse, I think he suffers from "Sunak Syndrome" - doing the obviously logical things competently during a crisis* which makes him seem like a sound choice despite being someone who'd have never been considered beforehand (perhaps especially when compared to some other ministerial colleagues)


*or at least, the perceived right thing and appearing to do it competently - what comes out in the wash later on is another matter!

I think part of it is down to Wallace being seen as competent and not particularly partisan or blustery, but also the belief that sometimes the best person for the leadership job is the one who doesnt want to do it.

 

[brad465]

Agreed. I suspect whoever does take over from Boris will be picking up a poisoned chalice.

Johnson would have gone a lot earlier were it not for two things: the lack of an obvious alternative in the Tory party, but also more in line with this point, I think the wider party wanted the current wider situation to play out a bit longer, so a new candidate could put the blame for said situation on Johnson and then they'd be a fresh start.

My agreement ends there though

That doesn't surprise me, although I'd have thought you might partially agree about the last point about no alternative being presented, I don't even think the current Labour party have a brilliant solution right now (although PR voting might enable more credible ideas from different parties to emerge that form a solution). Classic socialism probably isn't the answer because I think an alternative needs to consider the environment better, which socialism arguably never considered (when talking about nationalised fossil fuel industries). The bank crash in 2008 was arguably neoliberalism's failure, while the failure of anybody, both in the UK and abroad, to deliver a solution, other than bailing out bankers (who should have been jailed, like in Iceland) and inflating asset bubbles, created the rise of populism that saw extremes like Johnson and Corbyn rise to prominence, obviously one was more successful than the other.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==

Why is he still there in any other job he would have been told to clear his desk and then kicked out of the door.

Presumably they need time to remove the wallpaper and have that wedding party being reported.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==

I think part of it is down to Wallace being seen as competent and not particularly partisan or blustery, but also the belief that sometimes the best person for the leadership job is the one who doesnt want to do it.

I mentioned earlier upthread that Wallace would be a competent leader, but I don't think he'd campaign well, and given how he was one of the few non-loyalists to Johnson in Cabinet, Johnson probably didn't see him as a threat, so put him there. This was kind of proven by Wallace not resigning in the last 48 hours and also not providing a strong indictment of him (although he could claim Ukraine presented a need for continuity independent of what the PM was up to).

 

[stevetay3]

It's not really 'any other job' though, is it?

No it’s not that’s the problem though.

 

[daodao]

May or Hunt the best of a bad lot.

Pull the other one - they are both Remoaners.

 

[najaB]

Pull the other one - they are both Remoaners.

The longer we keep talking about Brexiteers and Remoaners the longer buffoons like Boris will continue to run rings around the population and line their pockets.

It really is getting tiring.

 

[Berliner]

Pull the other one - they are both Remoaners.

So someone who supported remain can never again take high office in the UK? What a horrible country we have become if this is the case.

Your precious brexit is done and we need to accept we lost and move on, as you all keep saying, so why does it matter if someone wanted it or not? All they might do is actually follow International law and respect previously made agreements!

Anyway I see certain sections of the press are painting a picture of Poor Boris, the family man forced to resign. I bet we have a summer of this nonsense and he ends up claiming the will of the party has changed and he is now staying. Until he's out the door, I won't believe he's actually gone.

 

[Yew]

Pull the other one - they are both Remoaners.

Whereas Boris came up with scathing criticisms such as:

I am a bit of a fan of the European Union. If we did not have one, we would invent something like it—some means of association between the sovereign states of Europe, perhaps an organisation in Brussels—overnight. I was educated at a European school. If I wanted to, I could sing the "Ode to Joy" in German.

European Union (Accessions) Bill (Hansard, 21 May 2003)

European Union (Accessions) Bill (Hansard, 21 May 2003)

api.parliament.uk

 

[nw1]

Pull the other one - they are both Remoaners.

There speaks a hard Brexiter, obviously.

Wouldn't call May and Hunt hard Remainers in any case. Slightly Remain, but not strongly.

But in any case, the issue right now is Johnson is widely not seen as the best leader for the country - not even within the party. Thus, surely, we need a leader who is not a Johnson acolyte, and will move the country into a new post-Johnson era.

Don't worry, I doubt we'll rejoin. But much improved UK-EU relations is one of the things we need, quite apart from more mature, less reactionary politics which IMO May and Hunt can provide better than some of the foaming-at-the-mouth alternatives.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2022 ==

Whereas Boris came up with scathing criticisms such as:

European Union (Accessions) Bill (Hansard, 21 May 2003)

European Union (Accessions) Bill (Hansard, 21 May 2003)

api.parliament.uk

Johnson, of course, sails with the wind and does whatever will likely give him power. Leaving the EU was not fashionable in the saner times that were the 90s and early 00s, hence he would scarcely try and support it then. Doubly so given that mayor of London was his ambition at that point.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2022 ==

Not too bothered about rejoining the EU, we probably wouldn't have the same excellent terms anyway, but joining the single market is a must. After all, we were promised the "Norway Model"?

Exactly this. Time to end the isolationism. Granted former EU fan Boris Johnson has made such a fool of the country that I doubt we'll rejoin until the Johnson era is well past - but there is no reason why we cannot adopt friendlier terms with the EU (and the UK Government has the duty to initiate these, as the UK Government 'started' the hostilities so it's their imperative to 'make up') and at the very least, rejoin the single market.

You know, back to the 1973-92 era. That would be a good start.

I'm currently overseas, in an EU country. Johnson was the first news last night, incredibly. Didn't fully understand the bulletin but the overall picture was that he is considered here a bit of a cartoon character, a funny but not altogether serious individual. Peppa Pig was focused on several times, as well as the Olympics tightrope stunt.

Doesn't reflect greatly on the UK if that is the general continental view of Johnson, and is precisely why we need to move on from the Johnson era.

 

[DelayRepay]

So someone who supported remain can never again take high office in the UK? What a horrible country we have become if this is the case.

Your precious brexit is done and we need to accept we lost and move on, as you all keep saying, so why does it matter if someone wanted it or not? All they might do is actually follow International law and respect previously made agreements!

I agree with this. The Europe question tore the Conservative party apart while we were members of the EU, and it's still doing so now. Great talent has been missing from the government due to the rejection of so called Remainers.

If there had been more of an acceptance from the Conservative Government that opinion was divided, and that those who supported Remain still have a lot to contribute (especially in relation to policy areas like Health, Education, Social Security, etc, which in practice had little to do with EU membership), then we may not have ended up with a government led by a clown, and a cabinet filled (with a couple of exceptions) by weak 'yes men'.

 

[nw1]

If there was no mandate for a no deal Brext, there was also no mandate for us staying in the single market.

The 2016 referendum gave the government a mandate to take the UK out of the European Union, and the next three years were taken up with arguing about what form Brexit should take.

The extremely narrow result of the referendum (13 for, 12 against) is a clear sign that the population didn't actually know.

A "Brexit but with single market and freedom of movement" would actually be the fairest outcome and those who witter on about "democracy" regarding the referendum need to realise that. Myself and millions of other Remainers would completely accept such an outcome. Hard Brexit is absolutely inappropriate for such a marginal result. It should have been "single market or second referendum". So they could have tried for a Norway-model Brexit, and if the EU didn't accept, then they should have come back saying "sorry guys, we tried a sane Brexit and can't get one. So we'll now have a second referendum. Remain or Hard Brexit, with no freedom of movement and no single market". I suspect a second referendum on those terms would have been a win for Remain.

Leaving the single market has personally caused me big, disruptive difficulties (inability to source parts from Germany easily meant I was without my main computer for almost two months) and it's time to stop justifying this reactionary nonsense and accepting that it was a Johnson vanity project. We were in the single market in 1973, for heaven's sake. Who wants to turn the clock back 50 years?

 

[DelayRepay]

Don't worry, I doubt we'll rejoin. But much improved UK-EU relations is one of the things we need, quite apart from more mature, less reactionary politics which IMO May and Hunt can provide better than some of the foaming-at-the-mouth alternatives.

Agree. I don't really see many people calling for us to re-join now. Whether Leaver or Remainer, we need to collectively focus on the future, not the past.

Even as a Remainer, I see no reason why we cannot be a successful country outside of the EU. We just need a competent Government to make that happen.

 

[nlogax]

Pull the other one - they are both Remoaners.

Comments and attitudes like this are a major part of why we're in this rather major mess.

 

[DelayRepay]

The extremely narrow result of the referendum (13 for, 12 against) is a clear sign that the population didn't actually know.

In my view the 2019 General Election served as a second referendum. By that point negotiations had been ongoing for years, and the problems had been well documented in the media. The Conservative Party's main manifesto commitment was to 'Get Brexit Done' and they won by a landslide. If the public had really been sceptical, this would not have happened.

There are many things I wish we'd done differently but what's done is done and we need to focus on the future, not the past.

 

[nw1]

In my view the 2019 General Election served as a second referendum. By that point negotiations had been ongoing for years, and the problems had been well documented in the media. The Conservative Party's main manifesto commitment was to 'Get Brexit Done' and they won by a landslide. If the public had really been sceptical, this would not have happened.

There were other factors at play here, and I don't see the 2019 election as a second referendum at all. Maybe in some socially-conservative Red Wall constituencies, yes, but not across the country as a whole. Remember that many were severely worried about Corbyn, enough to make Johnson seem the least-worst of the two in the eyes of many. Many people have been lifelong Tories and even if they are Remainers, would never vote Labour.

Why else did remain constituencies in the south continue to return Tories?

No, this wasn't a substitute second referendum. It was a vote on "which do you consider the least bad, Johnson or Corbyn"? Obviously people considered Johnson the least bad of the two.

Add to that the "character" appeal (inexplicable IMO, but there you go) of Johnson to many.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2022 ==

There are many things I wish we'd done differently but what's done is done and we need to focus on the future, not the past.

Which should include mending relations with the EU and making our lives easier by rejoining the single market (and thus returning to the relatively sane 1973-92 time frame) rather than accepting the hostile relations which have been typical of the Johnson era.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Well, for the first time I can recall James Cleverly has shown some self-awareness and ruled himself out of the running.

 

[Strathclyder]

Pull the other one - they are both Remoaners.

Apart from anything else and my own personal (RE; unbroadcastable) thoughts on May and particularly Hunt, this petulant Remoaners claptrap and the attitude behind it is beyond tiresome at this point and is a major reason we're in this mess in the first place. Someone supported Remain, therefore they should be disqualified from ever holding public office again solely on that basis and nothing more. Newsflash: this is 2022 in a modern democracy, as flawed as it is, not 1722 (despite your Dear Leader's best attempts to drag us back there).

Whatever my views on Brexit are, what's done is done and all I'm really interested in going forward is a competent Government making serious efforts to repair our relationship, working and otherwise, with the EU. We thoroughly burned that bridge with all the isolationist, foaming-at-the-mouth BS your post and general attitude embodies, but with the right people at the helm, we could go some way in repairing it. Not to mention cleansing our image on the Continent of the perpetual embarrasment that is Johnson and his fawning stooges/yes-men, as noted by @nw1, which would be a major quality-of-life improvement for all of us if nothing else. Whether or not any of this will actually happen remains to be seen, but I, for one, have been ready to move on from this era for long enough.

Sooner he's gone, the better.

 

[DelayRepay]

There were other factors at play here, and I don't see the 2019 election as a second referendum at all. Maybe in some socially-conservative Red Wall constituencies, yes, but not across the country as a whole. Remember that many were severely worried about Corbyn, enough to make Johnson seem the least-worst of the two in the eyes of many. Many people have been lifelong Tories and even if they are Remainers, would never vote Labour.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree here. Like I said, I wish things had been different but ultimately, whatever the reason, the 2019 Election gave Johnson a clear mandate to press ahead with Brexit.

Which should include mending relations with the EU and making our lives easier by rejoining the single market (and thus returning to the relatively sane 1973-92 time frame) rather than accepting the hostile relations which have been typical of the Johnson era.

On this point, I agree. We need a good relationship with the huge trading block that sits on our doorstep, which would be beneficial for both parties. This could include joining the single market (if they'll have us!). Instead we have this situation where anything to do with Europe is perceived as almost evil by some parties, and those who suggest closer ties (not re-joining) are sometimes presented as devil worshipers!

 

[najaB]

Like I said, I wish things had been different but ultimately, whatever the reason, the 2019 Election gave Johnson a clear mandate to press ahead with Brexit.

Accepting that as the case, surely that mandate was to implement the "oven-ready deal" that we were assured he had.

 

[takno]

Accepting that as the case, surely that mandate was to implement the "oven-ready deal" that we were assured he had.

People keep throwing that in his face, but my experience of oven-ready poulty is that it's just a massive turkey with the guts ripped out, in a bag which is actually designed to retain hot air. How is this not what was delivered?

 

[jfollows]

Lots of interesting discussion, I have two personal thoughts on these:

1. Although I'd rejoin the EU tomorrow, without hesitation, this is yesterday's battle and now is the time to make the best of what we've got, and in particular we should get a government staffed with the most capable ministers regardless of their position on the EU - assuming those who didn't want to leave take my view that it's a done deal and get on with our new position in the world.
2. It's a shame that Boris is going to stick around for weeks and months, but I think the decision has been made to let him do so, and make the election for his replacement happen as quickly as possible so that he'll be replaced by September (probably) rather than waiting until the party conference. He's made some noises about "no new policies" but, given his track record, I don't trust him on this and so the sooner he's out of the door, the better.

 

[nw1]

People keep throwing that in his face, but my experience of oven-ready poulty is that it's just a massive turkey with the guts ripped out, in a bag which is actually designed to retain hot air. How is this not what was delivered?

And that surely has to be the comment of the day.

 

[ainsworth74]

Peter Hitchins seems to be having a normal one this morning:

Do not be in too much of a hurry to be dragged into the next General Election. The chances are horribly high that it will be the last proper British parliamentary poll, ever.

The Blairites, who are now quietly stealing back on to the stage, long to complete the revolution they began in 1997. And if they get power again, there will only be Left-wing governments in this country, for decades to come — perhaps for ever.

Like all self-described 'progressives', they want to make sure that in future polls, their side always wins. They also want to destroy the raucous, tough hurly-burly of British politics. It gets in their way, and you will miss it a lot when it has gone.

PETER HITCHENS: The next election may be the last British poll ever

PETER HITCHENS: The Blairites, who are now quietly stealing back on to the stage, long to complete the revolution they began in 1997 condemning the country to permanent left-wing Government.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Presumably they're now very worried in Daily Mail land that the voters in the next election might get it wrong and elect someone other than the Tory party to government. Which would clearly be a disaster after the last half decade or so of expert leadership. Meanwhile the rest of the Mail is quite a funny read as there's an element of impotent rage that their man has finally been gotten rid of. Well that and clearly Paul Dacre (Mail editor) is worried that his peerage might be in doubt.

 

[DanNCL]

The assassination of Shinzo Abe this morning will no doubt be considered by Johnson to be a welcome distraction from his scandals.

 

[najaB]

The assassination of Shinzo Abe this morning will no doubt be considered by Johnson to be a welcome distraction from his scandals.

I doubt it will provide much in the way of cover - he was the ex-PM of a country on almost literally the opposite side of the planet.

 

[DanNCL]

I doubt it will provide much in the way of cover - he was the ex-PM of a country on almost literally the opposite side of the planet.

I meant in the sense that the media is now talking about that instead of Johnson’s scandals

 

[najaB]

I meant in the sense that the media is now talking about that instead of Johnson’s scandals

I got that, but it's going to be out of the headlines in a day or two at most.

 

[GS250]

Leaving the single market has personally caused me big, disruptive difficulties (inability to source parts from Germany easily meant I was without my main computer for almost two months) and it's time to stop justifying this reactionary nonsense and accepting that it was a Johnson vanity project. We were in the single market in 1973, for heaven's sake. Who wants to turn the clock back 50 years?

It's swings and roundabouts of which was always going to be the outcome of Brexit. My brother for example has seen his wages rise for the first time since 2004. His employers had pretty much admitted that they held wages down due to having a plethora of cheap, grateful EU labour to choose from.

If we rejoined the single market, that would in all likelihood include Ukraine at some point?

An oversupply of labour has consequences to salaries.

Like most others on here, I think Brexit is done and dusted in principle.

As far as the Tory leadership goes...it would be suicide to appoint anyone who started to edge the UK back towards the EU. Especially in the style that John Major did.

 

[brad465]

The wedding party has been moved from Chequers after criticism, although not before Cleverly was defending it on air. Johnson being on the way out certainly hasn't changed his ways.

 

[Typhoon]

Peter Hitchins seems to be having a normal one this morning:

PETER HITCHENS: The next election may be the last British poll ever

PETER HITCHENS: The Blairites, who are now quietly stealing back on to the stage, long to complete the revolution they began in 1997 condemning the country to permanent left-wing Government.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Presumably they're now very worried in Daily Mail land that the voters in the next election might get it wrong and elect someone other than the Tory party to government. Which would clearly be a disaster after the last half decade or so of expert leadership. Meanwhile the rest of the Mail is quite a funny read as there's an element of impotent rage that their man has finally been gotten rid of. Well that and clearly Paul Dacre (Mail editor) is worried that his peerage might be in doubt.

He's not been taking his medication again! Either that or watching too much Hannity and Carlson.

I suppose it was really democratic of Johnson to withdraw the whip from a significant number of Conservative MPs (and, in some cases, never restore it) when they had the audacity to vote to try to stop a no-deal Brexit (not Brexit as such) even though, in some cases, their electorate had voted to 'remain'.

And I don't get this

You may have liked Europhile Tory Ted Heath, but I didn't, and I thought it marvellous that he could be Prime Minister one day, and out on the street with his grand piano the next, as happened in 1974.

He was 'out on his ear' because he tried and failed to negotiate a deal with the (then) Liberals, negotiations that took about a week. So the situation he pushes to the fore is one where person who occupies the position of Prime Minister was decided by a party which held 14 seats; this is the strength of First Past The Post?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Peter Hitchins seems to be having a normal one this morning:

PETER HITCHENS: The next election may be the last British poll ever

PETER HITCHENS: The Blairites, who are now quietly stealing back on to the stage, long to complete the revolution they began in 1997 condemning the country to permanent left-wing Government.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Presumably they're now very worried in Daily Mail land that the voters in the next election might get it wrong and elect someone other than the Tory party to government. Which would clearly be a disaster after the last half decade or so of expert leadership. Meanwhile the rest of the Mail is quite a funny read as there's an element of impotent rage that their man has finally been gotten rid of. Well that and clearly Paul Dacre (Mail editor) is worried that his peerage might be in doubt.

Incredible read. I haven't seen the left storm any parliament's after democratic elections in western countries recently...

Daily mail is a poison that continues to divide and conquer to make money.