When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[BRblue33]

Cliff Richhard song . Carrie doesn't live here anymore. O dear what a shame never mind.

 

[Bluejays]

I'd be more than happy with Wallace as PM given his performance and handling of Ukraine. But I think he'd be far better use to the world as Secretary General of NATO than UK PM.

I'd have agreed with this up until this week. The way he's stayed in post may be seen as 'loyal ' by some. But personally I see it as spineless sh*thousery. Gutless little man who needs to be kicked back to the back benches .

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If I joined the Tory party today, would I get a vote? Unfortunately the whittling-down process means the members only get to vote on the final two so not much point.

No. You have to have been a member for 3 months before you can vote in their elections. (I would surmise that rule is in place exactly to stop what I suspect is being implied by your post: People joining who don't really support the Tories just so they can vote for the leader )

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==

I'd have agreed with this up until this week. The way he's stayed in post may be seen as 'loyal ' by some. But personally I see it as spineless sh*thousery. Gutless little man who needs to be kicked back to the back benches .

To be fair, he (Ben Wallace) has provided a good justification for not resigning that avoided expressing any confidence in Boris: https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1544955399513726976

A number of us have an obligation to keep this country safe,no matter who is PM. The Party has a mechanism to change leaders and that is the mechanism which I advise colleagues to use. In the meantime,the public would not forgive us if we left these Offices of State empty.

Given he's defence secretary - a position that with the war in Ukraine you really don't want to be left vacant or subject to political intrigues, that justification arguably makes sense for him (in a way that it wouldn't for other less-security-critical posts).

 

[dosxuk]

You could say much the same about Boris. Despite his faults, there were many things that he did really well

Was there? I agree, there are many things that have gone ok which he has taken credit for, but I struggle to see what he personally has added to those things to the point he can be personally congratulated for them.

 

[Bluejays]

No. You have to have been a member for 3 months before you can vote in their elections. (I would surmise that rule is in place exactly to stop what I suspect is being implied by your post: People joining who don't really support the Tories just so they can vote for the leader )

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==



To be fair, he (Ben Wallace) has provided a good justification for not resigning that avoided expressing any confidence in Boris: https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1544955399513726976



Given he's defence secretary - a position that with the war in Ukraine you really don't want to be left vacant or subject to political intrigues, that justification arguably makes sense for him (in a way that it wouldn't for other less-security-critical posts).

That is a good point to be fair . I do think there was a bit of scope to make his feelings a bit clearer though .

 

[MattA7]

Problem we have now is who comes next? They are all Priti awful, and probably all Brexit ultra-hardliners?

Given we have already left the EU does it really matter if the new PM is pro or anti EU. Even if we had a pro EU government I can’t see them being in any hurry to rejoin and the EU would likely reject any request from the UK to rejoin given the amount of hassle Brexit caused.

If the unthinkable happens to us unfortunate citizens up north and Sturgeon get her independence vote then a independent Scotland would maybe get back into the EU as most scots voted remain (although not a certainty) how if independence happens EU membership will be the least of our worries.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Who is the political correspondant of RailUKForums and why have they not been on the TV today?

 

[Howardh]

Given we have already left the EU does it really matter if the new PM is pro or anti EU. Even if we had a pro EU government I can’t see them being in any hurry to rejoin and the EU would likely reject any request from the UK to rejoin given the amount of hassle Brexit caused.

If the unthinkable happens to us unfortunate citizens up north and Sturgeon get her independence vote then a independent Scotland would maybe get back into the EU as most scots voted remain (although not a certainty) how if independence happens EU membership will be the least of our worries.

Not too bothered about rejoining the EU, we probably wouldn't have the same excellent terms anyway, but joining the single market is a must. After all, we were promised the "Norway Model"?

 

[John Hunt]

Piece from 'The Independent' -

MSN

www.msn.com

Includes reference to Plantagenet Greased-Hogg who stood outside the door of No10 as Bunter Jolly said 'Bye' and has hardly received any mention here today.

 

[Lost property]

" Gizza a job, I can do that "...

Boris Johnson waxwork appears outside job centre

The Madame Tussauds figure is spotted outside a JobCentre Plus after the Prime Minister's resignation.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[duncanp]

Not too bothered about rejoining the EU, we probably wouldn't have the same excellent terms anyway, but joining the single market is a must. After all, we were promised the "Norway Model"?

If we "..rejoined the single market.." we would have to follow EU rules and pay into the EU budget, but would have no say in making or changing the rules, and would likely just have to accept what the EU told us to pay.

I cannot see how this can be good for the UK.

I don't recall anyone promising us the "Norway Model" during the 2016 referendum, although some people did say it was a possibility.

The government should have a mandate from the people to change our relationship with the EU, expressed either through the ballot box at an election or in a referendum. Simply changing the Prime Minister does not give the government such a mandate, no matter what Europhiles like Heseltine and Major might like to think.

 

[takno]

If we "..rejoined the single market.." we would have to follow EU rules and pay into the EU budget, but would have no say in making or changing the rules, and would likely just have to accept what the EU told us to pay.

I cannot see how this can be good for the UK.

I don't recall anyone promising us the "Norway Model" during the 2016 referendum, although some people did say it was a possibility.

The government should have a mandate from the people to change our relationship with the EU, expressed either through the ballot box at an election or in a referendum. Simply changing the Prime Minister does not give the government such a mandate, no matter what Europhiles like Heseltine and Major might like to think.

There was no mandate to change our relationship to hostile verging on trade war. Being in the single market wasn't at all ruled out by a referendum on EU membership, so there's really no need for another referendum before we went back in. Doing so would be a huge net benefit to the national economy and virtually everybody in the country, irrespective of some minor fussing about what turns out to be relatively small amounts of money.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There was no mandate to change our relationship to hostile verging on trade war. Being in the single market wasn't at all ruled out by a referendum on EU membership, so there's really no need for another referendum before we went back in. Doing so would be a huge net benefit to the national economy and virtually everybody in the country, irrespective of some minor fussing about what turns out to be relatively small amounts of money.

Let us not forget that despite all attempts by politicians at the time of the "leave" and the "remain" persuasions, the actual vote casting to decide matters was done by the electorate. People making claims that the electorate was swayed by the politicians is claiming that an outbreak of feeble-mindedness had occurred in the electorate.

 

[duncanp]

There was no mandate to change our relationship to hostile verging on trade war. Being in the single market wasn't at all ruled out by a referendum on EU membership, so there's really no need for another referendum before we went back in. Doing so would be a huge net benefit to the national economy and virtually everybody in the country, irrespective of some minor fussing about what turns out to be relatively small amounts of money.

If there was no mandate for a no deal Brext, there was also no mandate for us staying in the single market.

The 2016 referendum gave the government a mandate to take the UK out of the European Union, and the next three years were taken up with arguing about what form Brexit should take.

One of the main issues to the 2019 general election was what form Brexit should take, and whether there should be a second referendum on the terms of the withdrawal agreement.

I think that the result was decisive enough to give the government a mandate to negotiate Brexit on terms similar to what was eventually agreed.

Consequently any future government needs a mandate from the people if they want to change our relationship with the EU in the future.

 

[WatcherZero]

So lines coming out of the Cabinet meeting was Boris was a caretaker only and wouldnt be allowed to follow new agendas or implement changes to fiscal policy. I.E. he wont be allowed to straddle his successor with tax cuts for popularity reasons.

Knowing hes a man that craves popularity and being in charge above all things I wonder if he wont just get bored and quit anyway.

Theres also the breaking news Boris is planning a major wedding at Chequers next month (possibly a proper wedding to Carrie rather than their secret registry office one at Westminster Cathedral during the pandemic), and keeping the venue is one of his major motivations for limping on as PM.

 

[jfollows]

Loads of new/replacement appointments announced:

• Johnny Mercer MP to be a Minister of State
  (Minister for Veterans' Affairs) at the
  Cabinet Office. He will attend Cabinet;
• Graham Stuart MP to be a Minister of State
  at the Foreign, Commonwealth and
  Development Office;
• Stephen McPartland MP to be a Minister of
  State (Minister for Security) at the Home
  Office.
• Tom Pursglove MP to be a Minister of State
  jointly at the Home Office and the Ministry
  of Justice;
• James Heappey MP to be a Minister of State
  at the Ministry of Defence;
• Will Quince MP to be a Minister of State at
  the Department for Education;
• Maria Caulfield MP to be a Minister of State
  at the Department for Health and Social
  Care;
• Paul Scully MP to be a Minister of State at
  the Department for Levelling Up, Housing
  and Communities. He remains as Minister for London;
• Marcus Jones MP to be a Minister of State at
  the Department for Levelling Up, Housing
  and Communities;
• Matt Warman MP to be a Minister of State
  at the Department for Digital, Culture,
  Media and Sport;
• Trudy Harrison MP to be a Minister of State
  at the Department for Transport;
• Edward Timpson CBE MP to be Solicitor General

Will Quince in particular must have kissed and made up because he was the one who resigned after parroting Number Ten's line which turned out to be untrue, and caused others to resign subsequently also.

Also

The Conservative former cabinet minister David Mellor told Sky News that Boris Johnson made a “total fool of himself by clinging on” and it was untenable to have him run the country for another three months.

“I think Boris’s problem is that he thinks rules are for little people and he’s not a little person,” he said.

 

[Typhoon]

Will Quince in particular must have kissed and made up because he was the one who resigned after parroting Number Ten's line which turned out to be untrue, and caused others to resign subsequently also.

Also

Or maybe it is Boris' acceptance that he hang him out to dry?

Mercer is an interesting case:

A former veterans minister has hit out at the government as "the most distrustful, awful environment I've ever worked in".

Tory MP Johnny Mercer told Times Radio "almost nobody tells the truth," and election pledges had not been delivered.

It follows his departure over legal protections for British troops who fought during the conflict in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles.

No 10 has pledged action on the issue.

Speaking to BBC Newsnight in an interview that will air later on Wednesday, Mr Mercer said Boris Johnson had failed to deliver on promises to protect ex-soldiers who served in Northern Ireland from prosecution.

He told the programme he had been "sacked by text" after offering to resign at the end of Wednesday, but refusing to go earlier.

Obviously it has all change in the last year!
From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56838589

 

[Cloud Strife]

Consequently any future government needs a mandate from the people if they want to change our relationship with the EU in the future.

Not really. There's no legal obligation for such a thing, and the UK has a long history of considering Parliament as sovereign.

 

[jfollows]

Contrary to my expectation, Boris Johnson's PPS has said that Boris intends to remain an MP once he's stopped being PM.
That being the case, is it because he wants/hopes to be PM again later?
His current Uxbridge constituency is "marginal", however I think that following his resignation his odds have improved along with all the other Conservative candidates at the next general election.
Interesting that his PPS would say this today, though.

 

[duncanp]

Not really. There's no legal obligation for such a thing, and the UK has a long history of considering Parliament as sovereign.

When I said that the government needs a mandate from the people to change our relationship with the EU, I should have made it clear that such a mandate can be delivered via a referendum or an election.

I did not mean to say that the government needs another referendum before changing our relationship with the EU.

Parliament is indeed sovereign, but it is accountable to the people for the decisions it makes, and if the people do not like what the government does, they are free to elect another government in its place.

If the government changes as a result of an election, then that government has a mandate from the people to enact the policies outlined during the election campaign.

 

[Busaholic]

with them.Contrary to my expectation, Boris Johnson's PPS has said that Boris intends to remain an MP once he's stopped being PM.
That being the case, is it because he wants/hopes to be PM again later?
His current Uxbridge constituency is "marginal", however I think that following his resignation his odds have improved along with all the other Conservative candidates at the next general election.
Interesting that his PPS would say this today, though.

I suspect greed is a motive - if he hangs on until the GE before standing down, or (even better from a financial point of view) stands again and gets defeated, then he makes a packet either way. His appearances in the Commons may be negligible or even non-existent, he may never do a constituency 'surgery', what does he care? Actually, I don't believe he'd be allowed to stand again as the official Conservative candidate, but that's not a deal breaker. He'll be doing a non-Churchillian V sign to the ungrateful huddled masses who abandoned him before he was ready to finish with them.

 

[brad465]

The Tories will get a poll bounce, no question, every Governing party gets it with a new leader, and to a lesser extent the opposition party does when they change leader.

But the wider situation won't change and reality will soon hit. Debt is spiralling out of control and the OBR today said the current path is unsustainable without higher taxes. Inflation is unlikely to ease for the foreseeable future, among a number of other issues.

I've long believed the current neoliberal system is the real problem and has had its day, but no-one is presenting a radical alternative that will work and is appealing. New problems require new solutions.

 

[takno]

If the government changes as a result of an election, then that government has a mandate from the people to enact the policies outlined during the election campaign.

The government has a mandate to do exactly what the government decides to do. That's pretty much what sovereign means. Manifestos and pre-election statements are not binding on them, as has been amply demonstrated by the consistent failure over the last 7 years or so to implement pretty much anything that was in anybody's manifesto.

Even the 2019 manifesto promised to replace EU membership with a solid ongoing relationship and an ever-growing series of trade relationships across the world. It notably didn't promise to turn the whole thing into a rolling catastrophe with the economy shattered and a weird determination to break international law.

 

[Bald Rick]

I don't know, but the current favourite in the betting market is Rishi Sunak at 26/5. Yesterday, it was Penny Mordaunt.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader

Ben Wallace is hot favourite on Betfair at 3/1; his odds have been coming down all day. Sunak is 5/1, Mordaunt 15/2, Tugendhat 17/2, the rest 11/1 or longer.

Tugendhat is a dark horse - he’s a intelligent and good guy (and actually supported me in an argument I had with one of his colleagues once)

 

[Domh245]

It's interesting that Wallace has emerged as something of a dark horse, I think he suffers from "Sunak Syndrome" - doing the obviously logical things competently during a crisis* which makes him seem like a sound choice despite being someone who'd have never been considered beforehand (perhaps especially when compared to some other ministerial colleagues)


*or at least, the perceived right thing and appearing to do it competently - what comes out in the wash later on is another matter!

 

[The Ham]

Someone was saying (and I don't necessarily agree with this) earlier that given that Boris had lied to stay in part what's to stop him from using his being a caretaker MP to then try and stay in post longer.

Obviously that may well result in parts of the Tory Party siding with Labour to support a view of no confidence in the government, so would be very risky for Boris to do. Not just for him but the wider Tory Party.

 

[Basil Jet]

He only cares about himself. He even throws his nearest & dearest under the bus if it advances himself, hence why he has multiple wives & divorces & unconfirmed number of kids.

You didn't really think the meek would inherit the earth, did you?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

But the wider situation won't change and reality will soon hit. Debt is spiralling out of control and the OBR today said the current path is unsustainable without higher taxes. Inflation is unlikely to ease for the foreseeable future, among a number of other issues.

Agreed. I suspect whoever does take over from Boris will be picking up a poisoned chalice.

I've long believed the current neoliberal system is the real problem and has had its day, but no-one is presenting a radical alternative that will work and is appealing. New problems require new solutions.

My agreement ends there though

 

[stevetay3]

Why is he still there in any other job he would have been told to clear his desk and then kicked out of the door.

 

[J-2739]

Why is he still there in any other job he would have been told to clear his desk and then kicked out of the door.

It's not really 'any other job' though, is it?