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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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nw1

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Exactly this.

I don't think any restrictions will be respected anyway. People are now seeing the economic consequences of restrictions.
Of course one of the people most pro-restriction in the past (don't know about now, but certainly in Sep 2020) is... one of Johnson's former friends, Ms Priti Patel.
As for the results of a possible election....not convinced Labour would romp home. Forget opinion polls. That's wishful thinking from some.

When it comes to it ...unless there is a stand out alternative, people curse, hold their nose and then vote Tory.

Depends who the leader is, and when it happens. An early autumn election (before it gets too cold) with a new leader would have more chance of success for the Tories than a spring election, following a difficult winter.

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The minister Suella braverman who has just been on the radio sounds absolutely awful in terms of policies and ideas, bringing up wokeism and universities, while obviously being incredibly pro brexit and waffling on about the regulation burdens of the eu. In the end, of course, she failed to put into words any actual plan for post brexit Britain.
Boris is awful and self serving etc. But there are certainly more right wing horrible people who could be in charge.

Another minister with an apt nickname which can be achieved by replacing one of the letters in her name with two others. As I said above, Braverman is just another of the hard-right cabal who have dominated UK politics for the past three years and would certainly not win the Tories any elections.
 
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duncanp

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I would imagine even if Sir Beer does a vote of no confidence it will fail, the Tory MPs will vote against it as they know if it is successful and there is another election they could be out of a job.

I would really like Sir Beer Starmer to be fined over the "Beergate" incident and thus be forced to resign.

That would wipe the smug self satisfied grin off his face.

And while we are on the morality bandwagon, why is Ian Blackford still in his position


Ian Blackford apology dismissed as 'cop out' by Patrick Grady victim​


An apology by the SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford over his party's handling of a sexual harassment complaint against an MP has been dismissed as a cop out by the victim.
Patrick Grady was suspended from Parliament for two days after he was found to have made a sexual advance to a teenage SNP staffer.
Mr Blackford said he regretted that the victim did not feel supported.
But the staffer said the SNP had not learned anything from the case.
He accused the party of closing ranks and attempting to discredit the victim in order to limit the damage that was caused, rather than genuinely attempting to tackle the issues that had been raised.
Mr Grady, the party's former chief whip, was found by an independent panel to have touched and stroked the neck, hair and back of his colleague during a social event in 2016.

The panel recommended he be suspended from the Commons for two days - with the SNP understood to have also suspended him until his parliamentary suspension was complete.
In an audio recording of a subsequent SNP group meeting that was leaked to the Daily Mail newspaper, Mr Blackford could be heard urging his colleagues to "give as much support as possible" to Mr Grady.
Another SNP MP, Amy Callaghan, also told the meeting that the party should be "rallying together" to support Mr Grady.

'Completely unacceptable'​

Both politicians later apologised, with Mr Blackford facing calls from the Conservatives and Labour to resign.
Mr Blackford's written statement expressed his "regret" that the complainant did not feel fully supported by the party.
He said: "The way that this situation has played out publicly over the last few days, including recordings from the parliamentary group, has caused distress to the complainant amongst others and I am sorry that is the case."
Mr Blackford also said Mr Grady's behaviour towards the member of staff was "completely unacceptable and should never have happened", adding: "I'm sorry it did".

Responding to the statement, the staffer said it felt like a "non-apology and a bit of a cop out".
He told the BBC's Good Morning Scotland programme: "Ian Blackford has never contacted me privately to give me a private apology.
"I was also given zero notice that this so called apology was going to be published or given to broadcasters to use.
"I found out like everybody else, so to me it's a publicity stunt and he has done it to protect his position and protect his reputation."

He said he believed the SNP was more focused on limiting the damage to the party and finding the source of the leaked audio than it was in addressing what was said during the meeting.
He added: "It seems like the SNP under Ian Blackford at Westminster hasn't learnt a thing - they are still trying to close ranks and discredit the victim."
The staffer said he had been contacted by Ms Callaghan before she issued her apology, which he had accepted as he believed it was heartfelt and that she had "learned and reflected and realised why that was wrong".
But he said he had only received support from perhaps "a couple" of the party's other MPs, and that he believed this was due in part to Mr Blackford "directing them to support Patrick Grady instead of myself".

'Young and inexperienced'​

The staffer welcomed Mr Blackford's announcement of an external review of support available to SNP staff who make complaints as a "good first step", but said nobody could believe the party was going to take it seriously.
He is currently off work, and said he did not believe he could return to his job while Mr Blackford and Mr Grady remained in their post - but that he hoped by speaking out he would give confidence to other victims.
He accused Mr Blackford of attempting to "ambush" him after he initially made his complaint by inviting him to a meeting without telling him Mr Grady was also going to be there.
He said he believed this was done because their view that he was "young and inexperienced" and that the complaint would be "over and done with" if Mr Grady offered an apology.
The staffer added: "For three years after that, he kept reappointing Patrick as the chief whip while I was working there.
"I had to go in every day and face him at work. It was torture. It was a living hell in that regard."

What has the SNP said in response?​

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was questioned by opposition leaders in the Scottish Parliament about the victim's interview, and said she would be willing to meet him to apologise in person.
Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader, said she had already given a written apology to him, and described some of the comments made during her party's group meeting at Westminster as "utterly unacceptable".
She added: "I take these issues very seriously. But these issues are not unique to the SNP. All of us have lessons to learn."
Mr Blackford refused an invitation to appear on Good Morning Scotland to respond to the complaints made about his handling of the case, but did agree to speak to BBC Scotland on Thursday evening.
He said he was also willing to meet with the victim, adding: "If the complainant feels aggrieved, then I am sorry for that."
 

takno

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I would really like Sir Beer Starmer to be fined over the "Beergate" incident and thus be forced to resign.

That would wipe the smug self satisfied grin off his face.

And while we are on the morality bandwagon, why is Ian Blackford still in his position

Seems like observations which would be more appropriate on the Labour and (if it exists) SNP thread
 

brad465

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Sir John Major has written to the 1922 Committee stating Johnson should not remain in Downing Street, suggesting either making Raab PM or skipping the Members' Ballot of a leadership contest:


BREAKING: Sir John Major has written to Sir Graham Brady "For the overall wellbeing of the country, Mr Johnson should not remain in Downing Street" He says either Dominic Raab should become PM or Conservatives should remove the members' stage of the leadership ballot

1657200264312.png

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Best thing to happen will be for Johnson to go now, a caretaker PM (maybe May) to cover until September/October until a new leader gets elected.

Preferably someone who has had little to do with the Johnson administration, and someone who won't impose another lockdown if cases of the C word increase this coming winter.

Better than Johnson hanging around like a bad smell like Corbyn did when he quit after losing in 2019.

I would imagine even if Sir Beer does a vote of no confidence it will fail, the Tory MPs will vote against it as they know if it is successful and there is another election they could be out of a job.
I don't see a VONC in the Commons happening, there are plenty of voices in the Tory party itself wanting Johnson out a lot sooner than Johnson has outlined.
 

nw1

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I do now think Truss has a good chance. My main fear is Mordaunt becoming PM TBH.
Neither are welcome as far as I'm concerned. Truss was one of the "Britannia Unchained" lot, who were quite happy to wrap themselves in patriotism to get support for Brexit but equally happy to slag off British workers as bonidle. Please - an end to these right-wingers now, haven't we had quite enough of them already!
 

Shrop

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Who will succeed Boris now that he has given his own (albeit reluctant) blessing to a new leadership contest? I had wondered about the Attorney General Suella Braverman, but I already know that quite a few would disagree with me, and the way she talks already seems to upset some. So who else would make a good leader, and why?
 

Gloster

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Neither are welcome as far as I'm concerned. Truss was one of the "Britannia Unchained" lot. Please - an end to these right-wingers now, haven't we had quite enough of them already!

But nobody is going to ask you or pay any attention to your wishes. It is all going to be kept within the Conservative party.
 

nw1

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Ben Wallace would have competency, but on the campaign trail he may struggle as he isn't currently well known and doesn't have a shining personality.

Whenever I see the name Ben Wallace I say "who"?
Very anonymous character indeed.

May or Hunt the best of a bad lot. Possibly Javid but perhaps he's a little too economically right wing.
 

Bletchleyite

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I don't know, but the current favourite in the betting market is Rishi Sunak at 26/5. Yesterday, it was Penny Mordaunt.

I could see it being Sunak but I don't think he would win a General Election. He just doesn't seem to have the personality.

I'd like to see Jeremy Hunt, partly because of the jokes that can be made surrounding his surname, but also because he seems to be very much the best of a bad bunch.

I really would NOT like to see either Patel or Leadsom. Both are nasty, nasty pieces of work.
 

Kite159

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I hope it will be someone who didn't play much of a part in the Johnson government, so a line can be drawn under the sand of the corruption with people getting investigated potentially getting fined.
 

nw1

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Best thing to happen will be for Johnson to go now, a caretaker PM (maybe May) to cover until September/October until a new leader gets elected.

Preferably someone who has had little to do with the Johnson administration, and someone who won't impose another lockdown if cases of the C word increase this coming winter.
Can't see anyone will impose another lockdown, unless they want to lose the next election. It would be absolutely inexcusable to do so now, with the economy in the state that it is - and public support for lockdowns is, I suspect, now very very low indeed.

I do agree we need a completely fresh start though. Someone who isn't a Johnson acolyte, someone who isn't hard-right economically, and someone who recognises that we need good relations with the EU.
 

AlterEgo

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Hunt is probably the least bad of the lot. How is Gove’s stock these days? I can never tell if the party likes him.
 

nw1

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More feedback is along the lines of
"blaming the herd instinct"
"no self reflection"
"hopes that he'll be the leader again after the next one loses the next election"
"defiant, bombastic"
"no humility or apology"
"tone of statement won't have helped him"
"hasn't taken his defenestration well"
"shows he's still in denial"
"boasting, blathering and blaming everyone but himself"
"terrible final speech by a man who turned out to be a truly terrible Prime Minister"
"not a single admission of having done anything wrong, or of having any regrets"
"incredibly graceless statement"
"snide, lacking in grace & self awareness"
"what's for lunch?"
all from Twitter feeds reported in The Guardian (so, yes, it's selective - live with it!)

All that could accurately describe a certain Mr D. Trump.

All those people who claimed that Johnson was "nothing like" Trump must be eating their words now.
 

Bletchleyite

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Can't see anyone will impose another lockdown, unless they want to lose the next election. It would be absolutely inexcusable to do so now, with the economy in the state that it is - and public support for lockdowns is, I suspect, now very very low indeed.

I'd be astonished if there were any more lockdowns regardless of who it was unless something VERY unfortunate happens such as a strain with a very high mortality rate (more like SARS1 for example). I wouldn't be surprised to see mask mandates back, though. (Obviously debates on the merits of this are for the COVID subforum).

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All that could accurately describe a certain Mr D. Trump.

All those people who claimed that Johnson was "nothing like" Trump must be eating their words now.

I've always thought he was a less dangerous version of the same thing - sort of a subTrump.
 

Shrop

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Hunt is probably the least bad of the lot. How is Gove’s stock these days? I can never tell if the party likes him.
Much as many of us have disliked Boris in recent months, Gove is a snake and had no qualms about stabbing Boris in the back when it suited his own personal gain. I don't doubt he would do the same to the public if it suited him. He's very much in the mould of putting his own gains ahead of those of the country. Just ask any teacher what he was like in Education!
 

nw1

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Of possible candidates, I'd agree about Hunt being the best of a bad lot. I mean, I am no fan of his, and when in government he wound me up - but at least he is a fresh break from the Johnson era. He also appears to be more open to good relations with the EU, which we need right now.

Or the return of May. Compared to the shower that have dominated the past three years, she's relatively benign.

Wallace - heard the name, know nothing about him. Can't comment in all honesty.

Truss - "Britannia Unchained" right-winger. No thanks.

Javid - maybe. On some issues he's relatively benign, but also perhaps has some worrying right-wing economic tendencies.

Sunak - not the worst candidate, but maybe a bit too out of touch with people's financial problems. Also rather too involved in the Johnson era.

Gove - too authoritarian for my liking, also rather too right-wing and pro-Brexit.

Braverman - no, no, no. Hard-right Brexiter and Johnson acolyte. Will be more of the same, albeit without the antics.

Leadsom - dinosaur with ridiculous prejudices about those of us who do not have children. Unfit to be an MP, let alone PM.

Patel - the Tories' secret weapon to ensure they lose the next election even more badly than they did in 1997. They'll doubtless only have one seat left - that being Patel's own true-blue Witham constituency. ;)
 
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RichJF

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I wonder if the Tories will want a reset back to 2019 to keep the 'Red Wall' voters on side in the next General Election and block out Labour? That way I think Jeremy Hunt would probably be the best all rounder and has experience of running in a leadership campaign and served in previous govts. From reading various articles he still has considerable sway in the party apparently.
 

Typhoon

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Peter Oborne is an honest conservative (almost the only one I know). Can't they ask him?
Interesting that you should say that. Earlier (pre-meltdown) posters were commenting about Shapps. I remember a comment Oborne made about him - uncomplimentary - along the lines of not trusting him in charge of a hot-dog stand. I have found
The re-emergence of Grant Shapps — in my view a rogue, who was once accused of editing his own Wikipedia page and those of political opponents — as Transport Secretary is as worrying.
im an article entitled
I don't wish to be a gloomster and rain on Boris's parade, but grave doubts surround his ability to deliver
dated 27 July 2019. How right he was!

Isn't he a Guardian writer and friends with Peter Hain? Or have I got very confused
I don't know about Hain but, of Oborne:
Peter was for many years a political columnist and commentator working for right wing press barons on mainstream newspapers, joining the Mail as political columnist in 2006 and the Telegraph as chief political commentator in 2010. Not by any stretch of the imagination could he be described as ‘left wing’ or ‘alternate’. That’s not what’s going on here.

He left the Telegraph in spectacular fashion in 2015 when he said advertising contracts at the paper were “allowed to determine editorial judgments”. The Guardian‘s political editor at the time, Michael White, wrote what made Peter Oborne unusual “is his powerful sense of right and wrong.”

Leaving the Telegraph torpedoed his career, involving a huge loss of income. He hooked up with the Mail once more, as their chief commentator, but in October 2019 he did it again, publishing an incendiary article in Open Democracy accusing the media, including his own paper, along with the Times, the BBC and ITN of “peddling Downing Street’s lies and smears”.

“This article marked the end of my thirty-year-long career as a writer and broadcaster in the mainstream British press and media” said Peter. “I had been a regular presenter on Radio 4’s The Week in Westminster for more than two decades. It ceased to use me, without explanation. I parted company on reasonably friendly terms with the Daily Mail after our disagreement.”.

From https://chiswickcalendar.co.uk/peter-oborne-lists-boris-johnsons-lies-in-new-website/

I always found he was reasonably good - objective - on 'The Week in Westminster'.
 

Horizon22

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Much as many of us have disliked Boris in recent months, Gove is a snake and had no qualms about stabbing Boris in the back when it suited his own personal gain. I don't doubt he would do the same to the public if it suited him. He's very much in the mould of putting his own gains ahead of those of the country. Just ask any teacher what he was like in Education!

Whilst I don't like Gove at all, he does have a reputation as being an extremely competent minister with a bit of a reformist streak who gets stuff done - he's been in multiple cabinets and positions. That might put him at odds with those people on the frontline of his ministries though, like teachers. I don't think he'd be a good leader though I agree.

Sunak & Javid are evidently leaders of a mini grouping and one of the two (probably Sunak) has to be heavily considered. Otherwise someone like Hunt who has more of a liberal stance about him. He's run before and has been quite decent on the Health Select Committee.

Overall though can't say I'd be a big fan of anyone in particular and this Tory government is losing steam - as to be expected after 7 (+5) years.
 

dosxuk

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Story broken by the Mirror - https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1545045540244578304

Boris Johnson and wife Carrie are planning big wedding bash at Chequers within weeks - with sources saying it's part of reason he wants to stay as caretaker.

Tory source: "It beggars belief that even after all the criticism Johnson has faced regarding integrity and probity, one of the reasons he is staying is to have his wedding party at Chequers. The Johnsons should do the decent thing and find a different venue."

PM's allies deny wedding party is factor in desire to stay on as caretaker Tory leader. Spox: "The PM has a strong sense of duty and will continue to serve his country until a new leader is in place solely to continue his obligation to the public".
 

jfollows

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It's not helped by the fact that he's rich beyond the aspirations of 99% of the population, but he considers himself poor because he's no longer getting a huge payment for writing for The Telegraph, so this story implies that he's trying to scrounge off the state for his wedding venue rather than pay for it himself, which he can easily afford.
It's certainly believable.
I paid for my wedding party myself, as I expect many people here did ......
 

Howardh

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If I joined the Tory party today, would I get a vote? Unfortunately the whittling-down process means the members only get to vote on the final two so not much point. Anyhow, my question is - they would be electing the Prime Minister, not just the leader of their party, something we commoners can never do - we simply elect our constituency MP and the rest is done for us.
 

Shrop

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Whilst I don't like Gove at all, he does have a reputation as being an extremely competent minister with a bit of a reformist streak who gets stuff done - he's been in multiple cabinets and positions.
You could say much the same about Boris. Despite his faults, there were many things that he did really well, the biggest problem was his loyalty to himself first and the country only after that.
 

stevetay3

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I would really like Sir Beer Starmer to be fined over the "Beergate" incident and thus be forced to resign.

That would wipe the smug self satisfied grin off his face.

And while we are on the morality bandwagon, why is Ian Blackford still in his position

He wouldn’t be forced to resign, he would just do the honourable thing which the clown prince refused to do.
 
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