kevin_roche
Member
- Joined
- 26 Feb 2019
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- 997
Some interesting snippets in the latest publication of Jacobs reports on the TfL website. Bolding in the quotes is mine.
In period 11:
Page 3
In period 10
Page 2
All of that seems to support a May or June opening rather than anything happening in April.
In period 11:
Page 3
Page 5Schedule milestones continue to trend towards P50 dates with prolongation pressures extant,
particularly with the Bond Street Station and Signalling contracts. We believe it likely that the
majority of the residual Project, Programme and Prolongation Risk will be utilised to offset emerging
issues. Consequently, it is likely that CRL will outturn close to its P50 forecast.
RfLI and CRL have previously targeted the start of Stage 5B services on the deterministic date of
[REDACTED]. However, ongoing uncertainty with the availability of Auto-Reverse
functionality has resulted in the planned start date changing to the P50 date of [REDACTED].
This change has affected Stage 5C opening, which has moved from December 2022 to May 2023.
RfLI still intends to connect the surface sections with the Central Section in [REDACTED] 2022 by
operating a Stage 5B Minus service. This maintains the principles of services from the GWML
terminating at Abbey Wood Station, and those from the GEML at Paddington Station. The peak
service level will be 22 TPH (24 TPH for Stage 5B) and off-peak will be 16 TPH (20 TPH for
Stage 5B). This approach is expected to provide additional driver resource and recovery time to
compensate for the lack of Auto-Reverse. The decision to commit to Stage 5B Minus services in
[REDACTED] 2022 needs to be made in [REDACTED] 2022, to enable driver rosters to be developed in
time.
Work is still being undertaken to understand the criteria needed to support that commitment
decision (and subsequent stage decisions), with the focus upon reliability and delivery of scope.
Enhanced reliability is anticipated through software upgrades to signalling (ELR210) and rolling
stock (H5.7 and H5.8), and through continuous improvement of people and processes (RfLI RCC and
response staff, MTREL drivers and Train Maintainers). However, opportunities for testing and
reliability demonstrations will become more restricted once the railway enters passenger service.
Programme scope will remain for delivery after Stage 3 opening and CRL and RfLI are identifying the
critical items pertaining to Stages 5B Minus, 5B and 5C.
Our concerns last period about a Stage 5C opening in December 2022 were based upon the
uncertainty of Auto-Reverse functionality being in place, the schedule proximity to Stage 5B opening
and muted support from NR. The postponement of opening to May 2023 relieves these concerns,
albeit at the expense of delaying overall programme completion.
The revision of the Stage 5B and 5C opening dates is a pragmatic approach to managing the
uncertainties of the later stages of the project. The introduction of a Stage 5B Minus also mitigates
the delay in connecting the GE and GWML services with the Central Section. Nonetheless, we remain
concerned at the poor rate of reliability growth, and the impact upon the implementation of
Stages 5B Minus and 5B. Reliability must improve significantly over the next four periods to inform
the commitment decision to Stage 5B Minus. This will be a challenge when management focus is
likely to be on Stage 3 opening.
In period 10
Page 2
The Christmas/New Year blockades were implemented to plan, with signalling software ELR110 and
train software H5.4 successfully deployed, and outstanding rail systems works completed. However,
reliability running carried out in early January 2022 delivered mixed results. Unresolved known
faults such as those affecting the Timetable Processor and train cab HMI (Human Machine Interface)
persist, and new issues have arisen with the GEML signalling transition and yellow plant.
PPM levels are significantly below target with excessive times to recover the service compounding the problems.
Overall railway reliability still falls short of levels expected at this stage of Trial Operations. While
the decision to proceed towards Trial Operations Phase 2 was not wholly predicated on railway
performance levels, rapid improvements in reliability are now needed to demonstrate that
sustainable operations will be possible once passenger services have started.
All railway infrastructure installation is effectively complete, and future performance gains will be
achieved through major rail system software changes, process improvement and growing staff
experience. The software changes include a TVS upgrade and ELR200 deployment for signalling;
both are planned for Easter 2022, but neither is strictly necessary for entry into Passenger Service.
All of that seems to support a May or June opening rather than anything happening in April.