December 2021 Timetable change

[Nicholas Lewis]

if “they” had realised at the outset that lockdowns would go on for so long, and that the long term switch to working at home would happen, and that ‘they’ were on the hook for an additional half billion quid a month eve when it ended, then “they” would have shut down many more services, and possibly routes, 19 months ago.

Just as well that was their baseline scenario but in the short term cancelling services saves some daily operating costs like variable access charges and energy/fuel and maybe staff overtime but it won't save rolling stock leasing costs nor NR's operating costs which are largely fixed across CP6. I appreciate there is the voluntary severance scheme thats been launched across the industry which is expected to take some cost out but bound to be largely experienced lifers who will then transfer the burden onto the railway pension scheme which is already creaking. I suspect we muddle along at this level and GBR will then be given a suicide mission to right size the industry and thats when the big cuts will come.

 

[The Planner]

Just as well that was their baseline scenario but in the short term cancelling services saves some daily operating costs like variable access charges and energy/fuel and maybe staff overtime but it won't save rolling stock leasing costs nor NR's operating costs which are largely fixed across CP6. I appreciate there is the voluntary severance scheme thats been launched across the industry which is expected to take some cost out but bound to be largely experienced lifers who will then transfer the burden onto the railway pension scheme which is already creaking. I suspect we muddle along at this level and GBR will then be given a suicide mission to right size the industry and thats when the big cuts will come.

Depends on if they decide to take their pension early. Most of the people I know that are going will have consultancies ringing up them up now to take on railway work.

 

[Techniquest]

A few pieces of good news, but the vast majority of TOCs are just continuing with current (largely poor) timetables.

Just as well I don't use the railway as much as I used to then! A shame, as I need something to fill the time during the winter months when the roads aren't overly suitable to cycling, and I'm not really super keen on gyms. If I wasn't in a shared house, I'd buy a decent quality indoor bike and use that. So with a poor showing on the railway I'm not sure what I'll do January to March!

Which does remind me I have research to do for my week off in January!

 

[I13]

So I take it there's no good news in December then, based on the recent posts? Nothing worth celebrating, nothing worth doing, just all acting like it's doomsday ahead for the railway...

I'll not add my thoughts on what's stopping more leisure travel from bouncing back, I'll be here all day with that!

So how about we stop flapping about what DfT might or might not do, and have a look at what good news is coming up. Haven't we got station openings due, with new services and journey opportunities to enjoy? Surely a better subject than 'DfT might permanently cut back lots of services'!

It's been mentioned upthread but since you're searching for good news, in Bristol the Severn Beach line is going to half-hourly which I'm personally very pleased about.

 

[SteelWeelApeal]

Just as well I don't use the railway as much as I used to then! A shame, as I need something to fill the time during the winter months when the roads aren't overly suitable to cycling, and I'm not really super keen on gyms. If I wasn't in a shared house, I'd buy a decent quality indoor bike and use that. So with a poor showing on the railway I'm not sure what I'll do January to March!

Which does remind me I have research to do for my week off in January!

Tbh, I wouldn’t worry too much. It’s very easy to see all the places where services haven’t returned to how they used to be, but in reality it’s perfectly useable and most frequencies are back. Some journeys take a bit longer, but most are absolutely fine. That’s my experience anyway.

 

[Bald Rick]

Just as well I don't use the railway as much as I used to then! A shame, as I need something to fill the time during the winter months when the roads aren't overly suitable to cycling, and I'm not really super keen on gyms. If I wasn't in a shared house, I'd buy a decent quality indoor bike and use that. So with a poor showing on the railway I'm not sure what I'll do January to March!

Which does remind me I have research to do for my week off in January!

There’s still something like 87% of ‘pre Covid’ services running Mon-Fri, and most of those missing are peak commuter services, which I guess is not a typical time for you to travel. I guess that in the off peak, there as many trains running now on the network as there were about 7-10 years ago. It’s still a good service.

 

[infobleep]

if “they” had realised at the outset that lockdowns would go on for so long, and that the long term switch to working at home would happen, and that ‘they’ were on the hook for an additional half billion quid a month eve when it ended, then “they” would have shut down many more services, and possibly routes, 19 months ago.

The question is, would they have provided alternatives for key workers?

 

[Horizon22]

Just as well I don't use the railway as much as I used to then! A shame, as I need something to fill the time during the winter months when the roads aren't overly suitable to cycling, and I'm not really super keen on gyms. If I wasn't in a shared house, I'd buy a decent quality indoor bike and use that. So with a poor showing on the railway I'm not sure what I'll do January to March!

Which does remind me I have research to do for my week off in January!

Most cuts are peak specials - in December a number of TOCs are improving their weekend provision to levels at or close to pre-pandemic. The bigger issue perhaps is still driver availability with backlogs in training at most TOCs still rumbling along.

 

[dk1]

if “they” had realised at the outset that lockdowns would go on for so long, and that the long term switch to working at home would happen, and that ‘they’ were on the hook for an additional half billion quid a month eve when it ended, then “they” would have shut down many more services, and possibly routes, 19 months ago.

I doubt it. Key workers don’t tend to sit in their bedrooms looking at a laptop & so much training/maintenance required to restart/continue running a railway. Best just to keep it ticking by regardless of cost & gives an easy kick start to the economy as a result. Nobody had a crystal ball back then. That’s life.

 

[infobleep]

There’s still something like 87% of ‘pre Covid’ services running Mon-Fri, and most of those missing are peak commuter services, which I guess is not a typical time for you to travel. I guess that in the off peak, there as many trains running now on the network as there were about 7-10 years ago. It’s still a good service.

From Guildford, some peak stopping services are missing but more generally, the missing trains are off pea or all day. Well, certainly there are two fast trains an hour during the morning and evening peak to Clapham Junction and only one-off peak. Trains via Bookham see now hourly all day rather than half-hourly. Well, save between 04.55 and 06:00 when it's roughly half-hourly.

This of course all reflects demand.

 

[philosopher]

There’s still something like 87% of ‘pre Covid’ services running Mon-Fri, and most of those missing are peak commuter services, which I guess is not a typical time for you to travel. I guess that in the off peak, there as many trains running now on the network as there were about 7-10 years ago. It’s still a good service.

That is somewhat higher than I suspected and I imagine at that level, most people would be reasonably happy with their service.

However if you frequently use one of those services with significantly pared down services, particularly if it is going to extend past December, you may well think differently.

The question is, would they have provided alternatives for key workers?

Somewhere I read that the treasury wanted to shut down the entire rail network and use taxis to transport key workers.

 

[dk1]

Somewhere I read that the treasury wanted to shut down the entire rail network and use taxis to transport key workers.

That sounds farcical. Daily Mail or Viz maybe?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Somewhere I read that the treasury wanted to shut down the entire rail network and use taxis to transport key workers.

It had been considered as Operators were asked for mobilisation costs to start up again and that’s when it was realised how expensive it would all be to restart them bearing in mind much of the network had to remain open for cargo traffic.

 

[baza585]

Indeed. XC ran these trains for a reason, not just for fun. The current pattern may nominally provide the same capacity (at least along the 'core' routes - lots of the extensions e.g. to Plymouth and Edinburgh have been curtailed). But it provides nowhere near the same connectivity or journey times.

The loss of the Newcastle-Reading via Doncaster service is particularly significant, as this overtook the preceding service via Leeds. Meaning that not only are frequencies lower but journey times, even on flows which still have direct trains, are now longer.

They appear to still be running the Newcastle as far as Banbury in some hours at least.

Presume to Banbury to keep New Street platforms clear. What I can't fathom is why they don't even extend these as far as Reading to provide some semblance of a service........

 

[Verulamius]

Looking at the new timetable on RTT there is a new through service from Euston to St Albans Abbey at 2110.

Not sure when the last timetabled through service last ran?

 

[Techniquest]

Thanks for the comments on my previous post, it is good to hear of the half hourly service to Severn Beach as that's been desirable for ages. There's certainly plenty of trains running it would appear, but it would be nice to have a reliable service again. The lack of faith in TfW and WMR actually running when I want to go out certainly doesn't help!

 

[The Planner]

They appear to still be running the Newcastle as far as Banbury in some hours at least.

Presume to Banbury to keep New Street platforms clear. What I can't fathom is why they don't even extend these as far as Reading to provide some semblance of a service........

Only two a day. Would need at least another diagram to extend it further.

 

[JonathanH]

Looking at the new timetable on RTT there is a new through service from Euston to St Albans Abbey at 2110.

Not sure when the last timetabled through service last ran?

Wow - wasn't that in the 'too difficult' pile. I note the unit off the branch that it replaces runs empty to Euston.

It does seem a bit odd to have an 'off-pattern' departure from Euston at this time run through to the branch. What specific demand has been identified?

 

[jimjim]

Wow - wasn't that in the 'too difficult' pile. I note the unit off the branch that it replaces runs empty to Euston.

It does seem a bit odd to have an 'off-pattern' departure from Euston at this time run through to the branch. What specific demand has been identified

You've got it in your nessage. It is to swap the units over.

 

[Llandudno]

There’s still something like 87% of ‘pre Covid’ services running Mon-Fri, and most of those missing are peak commuter services, which I guess is not a typical time for you to travel. I guess that in the off peak, there as many trains running now on the network as there were about 7-10 years ago. It’s still a good service.

Some TOCs must be running near enough at 100% to give an overall average of 87%, seeing as though EMR Regional, long distance XC and TfW are operating at way below 87%

 

[Watershed]

Some TOCs must be running near enough at 100% to give an overall average of 87%, seeing as though EMR Regional, long distance XC and TfW are operating at way below 87%

Exactly. Such averages mask huge differences.

The fact that LNER are operating an almost pre-Covid level of service is cold comfort if you use a station like Spondon or Kenilworth - both of which now have a service so poor that there's little point taking the train.

 

[gazzaa2]

Well as I said weekends have been incredibly busy to the point that many TOCs are seriously considering a completely new strategy for weekend timetables and crew/stock allocations. There's evidently still some hesitancy but people seem more keen than ever to get out and about on the weekend. Obviously the Sunday issue is compounded by crew contracts and that's going to have to change fast (and could be messy) to accommodate a better Sunday provision.

Which is partly a result of masses of people working from home. Commuters squashed into packed trains for 3 hour round commutes Monday to Friday were less likely to want to spend more hours on a train on a weekend. Now after being at home all/most of the week they want to get out the house and take day trips, having more energy to enjoy their weekend.

It's been obvious for a long time, well before Covid, that many TOC's can't cope with demand for weekend services even as they were then.

There's several TOC's and services i just refuse to use at the weekend now because they're too busy/infrequent (particularly if the train isn't going to or from London).

 

[Horizon22]

Wow - wasn't that in the 'too difficult' pile. I note the unit off the branch that it replaces runs empty to Euston.

It does seem a bit odd to have an 'off-pattern' departure from Euston at this time run through to the branch. What specific demand has been identified?

No route knowledge requirements?

Some TOCs must be running near enough at 100% to give an overall average of 87%, seeing as though EMR Regional, long distance XC and TfW are operating at way below 87%

It of course depends where the cuts are and at what times of the day. Lots of trains may still be running in peak times (even at TOCs you've mentioned) which aren't as well patronised as they once were.

Which is partly a result of masses of people working from home. Commuters squashed into packed trains for 3 hour round commutes Monday to Friday were less likely to want to spend more hours on a train on a weekend. Now after being at home all/most of the week they want to get out the house and take day trips, having more energy to enjoy their weekend.

It's been obvious for a long time, well before Covid, that many TOC's can't cope with demand for weekend services even as they were then.

There's several TOC's and services i just refuse to use at the weekend now because they're too busy/infrequent.

And now they're getting packed trains on a weekend due to stock and crew shortages & cancellations! The industry evidently needs a complete weekend revamp but as I think I said upthread, I doubt this is happening in Dec '21 and even May '22 might be a stretch for some TOCs. For me Saturday's have been broadly OK but Sunday is worse than ever.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

And now they're getting packed trains on a weekend due to stock and crew shortages & cancellations! The industry evidently needs a complete weekend revamp but as I think I said upthread, I doubt this is happening in Dec '21 and even May '22 might be a stretch for some TOCs. For me Saturday's have been broadly OK but Sunday is worse than ever.

Until T&Cs are revamped across the industry to make Sat/Suns part of the working week can't see many if any operators being able to enhance there weekend service opportunity. Best that can be done is to strengthen services where practical

 

[Bald Rick]

Worth pointing out that on a Network level, weekend passenger numbers have still not recovered to pre Covid levels. Clearly some routes have - more than recovered in fact - but some haven’t.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Worth pointing out that on a Network level, weekend passenger numbers have still not recovered to pre Covid levels. Clearly some routes have - more than recovered in fact - but some haven’t.

I've heard that weekend passenger numbers are at 90 - 95% of pre covid.

 

[Bald Rick]

I've heard that weekend passenger numbers are at 90 - 95% of pre covid.

Which isn’t 100%. Close, of course.

 

[dk1]

I've heard that weekend passenger numbers are at 90 - 95% of pre covid.

I’d say some of our regional routes are more like 110-120%. Never seen trains so busy.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I’d say some of our regional routes are more like 110-120%. Never seen trains so busy.

I don't doubt some of the regional routes are busier than pre covid, like Bald Rick said, but ther overall figures for the weekend are still slightly lower than pre covid, which means some routes are probably still at around 80& of pre covid on weekends.

 

[Llandudno]

Worth pointing out that on a Network level, weekend passenger numbers have still not recovered to pre Covid levels. Clearly some routes have - more than recovered in fact - but some haven’t.

Great to hear that some routes ‘have more than recovered’ any clues to which routes they are? Is the reason the staycation effect, improved services or introduction of new trains and the scrapping of Pacers for example?

The north Wales trains seem extra busy this year, but that maybe due to the fact that TfW/Avanti are running a reduced timetable and short formed trains which makes the trains that are running extra busy…