December 2021 Timetable change

[Halish Railway]

What I don't get is, if WMR insist on keeping a 4tph for Snow Hill, why don't they put it to every 15 instead of every 10/20, with Stratford staying on the Whitlocks and Dorridge trains using the bay at DDG. It'd also make connections at Galton Bridge to Wolves/BBrum better (especially connections to BHM/WVH ex Stourbridge).

The tt would less confusing too

They can’t shift it to an even every 15 minute service as all of the other operators services are pathed around the idea that there is an even 6tph on the core section starting at Tyseley, thus meaning that these ‘rejigged’ services would conflict with Chiltern, CrossCountry & freight services. Also, when the time comes to increase the frequency back to pre-COVID levels it makes it easier to just slot the third train back into the timetable.

You can add in the Cross City line in as another example.

 

[infobleep]

In a word no. And train lengths vary! GA are running a nearly full peak, of trains that are mostly shorter than pre covid (and mostly less busy).

Obviously, over time this needs to be ironed out or people will rightly say why are you cutting my services when you aren't cutting theirs and they don't have as many passengers either. Im assuming it's about finance and savings rather than providing a social benefit here. If one adds in social benefits then there may be good reasons for services being provided more in one area than another.

 

[Starmill]

Also, when the time comes to increase the frequency back to pre-COVID levels it makes it easier to just slot the third train back into the timetable.

If rather than when. But yes.

 

[dk1]

In a word no. And train lengths vary! GA are running a nearly full peak, of trains that are mostly shorter than pre covid (and mostly less busy).

Trains should gradually be extended again as more 720s come on stream.

 

[TheBigD]

With regard to East Midlands Railway, does anyone know why every Sheffield/Derby/Nottingham - St Pancras and vv stops at East Midlands Parkway (EMD) on a Sunday?

Mondays to Saturdays EMD has 2 out of the the 4 EMR intercity services stop and 2 that don't, the Sheffield fast and the Nottingham fast.

I get that the reduced morning service when only 2 trains an hour operate but why when the full 4 trains an hour service operates (mid afternoon to early evening) do they all stop at EMD? How come EMD requires extra stops in the Sheffield/Nottingham fasts on a Sunday but not the other 6 days a week?

 

[Bikeman78]

Example- AWC aren’t reintroducing anything like a full service on the N Wales/Holyhead route for the foreseeable future. Running something like 20-30pc of the pre-covid direct services.

It's particularly bad for people travelling from Crewe to anywhere west of Chester. The Euston to Chester connected quite well with the hourly TfW Chester to Holyhead train. The Crewe to Chester shuttle connected with the Manchester to Llandudno trains but most of them are not running west of Chester. So a through journey now means a 30 to 40 minute wait at Chester.

 

[berneyarms]

It's particularly bad for people travelling from Crewe to anywhere west of Chester. The Euston to Chester connected quite well with the hourly TfW Chester to Holyhead train. The Crewe to Chester shuttle connected with the Manchester to Llandudno trains but most of them are not running west of Chester. So a through journey now means a 30 to 40 minute wait at Chester.

The AWC shuttles simply need a new path from Crewe about 5 minutes later than now and they will connect directly out of the Liverpool service from London.

Why AWC is incapable of doing this is beyond me - the North Wales line is hardly overcrowded with trains.

 

[43055]

With regard to East Midlands Railway, does anyone know why every Sheffield/Derby/Nottingham - St Pancras and vv stops at East Midlands Parkway (EMD) on a Sunday?

Mondays to Saturdays EMD has 2 out of the the 4 EMR intercity services stop and 2 that don't, the Sheffield fast and the Nottingham fast.

I get that the reduced morning service when only 2 trains an hour operate but why when the full 4 trains an hour service operates (mid afternoon to early evening) do they all stop at EMD? How come EMD requires extra stops in the Sheffield/Nottingham fasts on a Sunday but not the other 6 days a week?

No idea of the reason but it has been going on for years where all services stop at Parkway on Sundays.

 

[swt_passenger]

No idea of the reason but it has been going on for years where all services stop at Parkway on Sundays.

Is it perhaps providing calls that would normally be covered by the local stoppers Mon-Sat?

 

[TheBigD]

Is it perhaps providing calls that would normally be covered by the local stoppers Mon-Sat?

The Ivanhoe stopper is only hourly. There are no other stoppers.

 

[DDB]

Could the East Midlands Sunday stops be because that's often where rail replacement buses run from if either Derby or Nottingham are effected by engineering works?

 

[Horizon22]

What may be relevant to this thread, is the recent data on rail usage for Q1 (April - June) 2021-2022 which shows how various TOCs have recovered / been affected by lockdowns.

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2010/passenger-rail-usage-2021-22-q1.pdf

A total of 182 million rail passenger journeys were made in Great Britain in 2021-22 Q1. This is more than five times the 35 million journeys made in 2020-21 Q1 when travel restrictions were most severe and the most journeys since the start of 2020-21. Nevertheless, usage remains considerably lower than before the pandemic with the 182 million journeys this quarter equating to 41.6% of the 437 million journeys made in the same quarter two years ago (2019-20 Q1).

Total passenger revenue in Great Britain was £999 million in 2021-22 Q1. This equates to 35.9% of the £2.8 billion in 2019-20 Q1 (2021-22 Q1 prices).

Obviously trends have continued to rise. Different TOCs have obviously performed better and will be using the data to look at service provision; London Overground has 56% of demand compared to the equivalent Q1 two years ago, whilst Scotrail languishes at 32%. There is a "chicken & egg" situation to some extent though - are services planned to be cut because of perceived lower demand? Or is lower demand being caused by service cuts and modal shift? Could become a vicious spiral if not checked.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

What may be relevant to this thread, is the recent data on rail usage for Q1 (April - June) 2021-2022 which shows how various TOCs have recovered / been affected by lockdowns.

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2010/passenger-rail-usage-2021-22-q1.pdf

Obviously trends have continued to rise. Different TOCs have obviously performed better and will be using the data to look at service provision; London Overground has 56% of demand compared to the equivalent Q1 two years ago, whilst Scotrail languishes at 32%. There is a "chicken & egg" situation to some extent though - are services planned to be cut because of perceived lower demand? Or is lower demand being caused by service cuts and modal shift? Could become a vicious spiral if not checked.

Useful document but as it still covers the period when restrictions were in force albeit lessening across the quarter I believe Q2 will be more representative of how things are settling down to start informing policy makers of what services should be provided. I do hope that they will have the sense to realise service provision is what entices passengers back to the railway as well as incentivising modal shift.

 

[Greybeard33]

Useful document but as it still covers the period when restrictions were in force albeit lessening across the quarter I believe Q2 will be more representative of how things are settling down to start informing policy makers of what services should be provided. I do hope that they will have the sense to realise service provision is what entices passengers back to the railway as well as incentivising modal shift.

More recent data from the Rail Delivery Group:

Rail commuting in Great Britain at less than half pre-pandemic level

Number of commuter trips made in mid-October was just 45% of pre-Covid figure, industry says

www.theguardian.com

The slowest recovery in commuting trips was in the capital, with demand in London at just 41% of pre-Covid levels compared with 54% across the rest of Great Britain. Meanwhile, leisure journeys are at about 90% of what they were before the pandemic, accounting for 55% of all rail journeys, compared with 33% in autumn 2019.

Although it is good news that leisure travel is continuing to recover, in respect of revenue leisure fares are relatively low yield compared with London commuting. So the railway as a whole is still a black hole swallowing taxpayers' cash.

I fear a vicious circle of decline, where pressure to cut subsidies leads to further reductions in services and hikes in fares, which in turn deter potential passengers so that farebox revenue fails to recover....

 

[Baxenden Bank]

More recent data from the Rail Delivery Group:

Rail commuting in Great Britain at less than half pre-pandemic level

Number of commuter trips made in mid-October was just 45% of pre-Covid figure, industry says

www.theguardian.com

Although it is good news that leisure travel is continuing to recover, in respect of revenue leisure fares are relatively low yield compared with London commuting. So the railway as a whole is still a black hole swallowing taxpayers' cash.

I fear a vicious circle of decline, where pressure to cut subsidies leads to further reductions in services and hikes in fares, which in turn deter potential passengers so that farebox revenue fails to recover....

My fear is that decisions will be made about future service levels based on very recent levels of use, but without properly taking context into account.

The argument going something like: we haven't had any lockdown restrictions since July, so where we are now is the new normal. Plan / provide on that basis.

Yet in reality there are still many 'restrictions' in place which will be deterring travel - recommended mask wearing, recommended social distancing, reduced convenience of social activities (pre-booking museums etc), fear factor following 15 months of doom laden messaging. Of a more localised context, some areas still suffer from substantially reduced timetables, some lines haven't had a normal timetable since March 2020.

 

[philosopher]

My fear is that decisions will be made about future service levels based on very recent levels of use, but without properly taking context into account.

The argument going something like: we haven't had any lockdown restrictions since July, so where we are now is the new normal. Plan / provide on that basis.

Yet in reality there are still many 'restrictions' in place which will be deterring travel - recommended mask wearing, recommended social distancing, reduced convenience of social activities (pre-booking museums etc), fear factor following 15 months of doom laden messaging. Of a more localised context, some areas still suffer from substantially reduced timetables, some lines haven't had a normal timetable since March 2020.

In my view, any long term decisions on future service levels should not be made until the second half of next year or 2023 when things should have finally settled down, particularly in terms of level of office working.

 

[Bald Rick]

In my view, any long term decisions on future service levels should not be made until the second half of next year or 2023 when things should have finally settled down, particularly in terms of level of office working.

but the railway hasn’t got the cash to do that - see the spending review. It needs to make decisions quickly, otherwise the decisions get much harder.

 

[philosopher]

but the railway hasn’t got the cash to do that - see the spending review. It needs to make decisions quickly, otherwise the decisions get much harder.

If that is the case then the treasury should cough up more money for the railways. Cutting train services risks a cycle of decline where lower frequencies drive passengers away, which in turn results in more cuts, etc.

 

[Bald Rick]

If that is the case then the treasury should cough up more money for the railways

They have. Well over £10bn extra for the last 18 months.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

If that is the case then the treasury should cough up more money for the railways. Cutting train services risks a cycle of decline where lower frequencies drive passengers away, which in turn results in more cuts, etc.

From which magic money tree do you suggest they cough up? Presumably you would be happy with a tax rise to pay for this?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2021 ==

They have. Well over £10bn extra for the last 18 months.

Well said!

 

[philosopher]

From which magic money tree do you suggest they cough up? Presumably you would be happy with a tax rise to pay for this?

Personally I would be happy if taxes were increased, if it allowed for a better rail services. For example fuel duty could be raised, given it has been frozen for several years now. Air duty could also be increased. I do appreciate this would be a hard sell politically.

Given the issue of climate change, however I think some unpopular decisions do have to be made. If cuts in rail service lead to many more buying cars, particularly internal combustion cars, which still predominate, that in my view would be quite a big failure of the government.

 

[yorksrob]

They have. Well over £10bn extra for the last 18 months.

From which magic money tree do you suggest they cough up? Presumably you would be happy with a tax rise to pay for this?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2021 ==



Well said!

If they can afford to run the trains empty (having told passengers to sod off) they can afford to run them with passengers.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's particularly bad for people travelling from Crewe to anywhere west of Chester. The Euston to Chester connected quite well with the hourly TfW Chester to Holyhead train. The Crewe to Chester shuttle connected with the Manchester to Llandudno trains but most of them are not running west of Chester. So a through journey now means a 30 to 40 minute wait at Chester.

The "old" timetable (pre-2003) had 3 through trains Euston-Holyhead (two up in the morning/down evening, with a single reverse off-peak service).
Local trains were then focussed on Crewe, providing decent connections into the 2tph Crewe-Euston (ex-Liverpool, Preston/Glasgow).
Today's timetable is worse than that, especially as TfW chooses to route trains from Chester via Shrewsbury rather than Crewe, which means 2 changes for many.
At one time the limited Avanti service was because social distancing rules meant Voyagers were doubled up, so could not run as many services.
But now there seems no shortage of trains, but the timetable is still crippled for some reason.
We either need more through trains, or TfW filling in with Crewe starters.
The other big strategic gap in the Avanti timetable is the lack of the Preston-Glasgow leg of Euston-Birmingham-Scotland services (which impacts TPE who fill the gaps).

 

[berneyarms]

The "old" timetable (pre-2003) had 3 through trains Euston-Holyhead (two up in the morning/down evening, with a single reverse off-peak service).
Local trains were then focussed on Crewe, providing decent connections into the 2tph Crewe-Euston (ex-Liverpool, Preston/Glasgow).
Today's timetable is worse than that, especially as TfW chooses to route trains from Chester via Shrewsbury rather than Crewe, which means 2 changes for many.
At one time the limited Avanti service was because social distancing rules meant Voyagers were doubled up, so could not run as many services.
But now there seems no shortage of trains, but the timetable is still crippled for some reason.
We either need more through trains, or TfW filling in with Crewe starters.
The other big strategic gap in the Avanti timetable is the lack of the Preston-Glasgow leg of Euston-Birmingham-Scotland services (which impacts TPE who fill the gaps).

As I already posted, the AWC shuttles starting at Crewe just need to depart about 4-5 minutes later to give a valid connection out of the Euston-Liverpool trains. It's a relatively easy solution, and should not cause too many issues along the Coast in terms of pathing. I just cannot understand why this is not being done.

It's more difficult in the other direction to offer a connection sadly, as the AWC services calling at Crewe from Liverpool and Manchester are at XX:22 and XX:29 respectively, and the TfW Chester-Crewe shuttle already connects into the latter.

 

[Ianno87]

If they can afford to run the trains empty (having told passengers to sod off) they can afford to run them with passengers.

Not forever they can't.

During various Lockdowns, there were few other funding options, short of basically shutting down the network completely and paying for a taxi for every "key worker" instead.

 

[Bald Rick]

If they can afford to run the trains empty (having told passengers to sod off) they can afford to run them with passengers.

if “they” had realised at the outset that lockdowns would go on for so long, and that the long term switch to working at home would happen, and that ‘they’ were on the hook for an additional half billion quid a month eve when it ended, then “they” would have shut down many more services, and possibly routes, 19 months ago.

 

[kingston_toon]

There are plenty of us out here making the argument that it's far too soon to be taking long term decisions on service patterns and rolling stock allocations but at the end of the day DfT is gonna do what DfT does. I have a horrible feeling that we're going to be in a bad place in a few years time but what else can we do?

 

[Ianno87]

There are plenty of us out here making the argument that it's far too soon to be taking long term decisions on service patterns and rolling stock allocations but at the end of the day DfT is gonna do what DfT does. I have a horrible feeling that we're going to be in a bad place in a few years time but what else can we do?

Sadly, taking some tough (and unpopular) decisions now may smooth the road in future. Provided that services are reduced in such a way they are easy to be reinstated in future (i.e. don't recast the timetable to make it impossible)

 

[Techniquest]

So I take it there's no good news in December then, based on the recent posts? Nothing worth celebrating, nothing worth doing, just all acting like it's doomsday ahead for the railway...

I'll not add my thoughts on what's stopping more leisure travel from bouncing back, I'll be here all day with that!

So how about we stop flapping about what DfT might or might not do, and have a look at what good news is coming up. Haven't we got station openings due, with new services and journey opportunities to enjoy? Surely a better subject than 'DfT might permanently cut back lots of services'!

 

[Watershed]

So I take it there's no good news in December then, based on the recent posts? Nothing worth celebrating, nothing worth doing, just all acting like it's doomsday ahead for the railway...

I'll not add my thoughts on what's stopping more leisure travel from bouncing back, I'll be here all day with that!

So how about we stop flapping about what DfT might or might not do, and have a look at what good news is coming up. Haven't we got station openings due, with new services and journey opportunities to enjoy? Surely a better subject than 'DfT might permanently cut back lots of services'!

A few pieces of good news, but the vast majority of TOCs are just continuing with current (largely poor) timetables.