Could/should HS2 Eastern leg be shelved?

[AM9]

There is a parallel with the termination of work on the Channel Tunnel in 1974 when the money ran out so it is quite possible. Clearly there are costs incurred but that isn't really any different from the money spent on anything else over the last year. There would be a saving in costs not yet incurred. There would be short term jobs in the remedial work to unwind the work completed to date and the construction sector would move onto something else deemed a higher priority.

There is a piece here about sunk cost fallacy published today.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/were-about-to-see-the-sunk-cost-fallacy-in-glorious-action-again


(For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not posting my opinion here, just noting that it is possible and sunk cost wouldn't necessarily lead the decision - ultimately it will come down to populism.)

The fallacious comment in the 'expert' Adam Smith piece is: "Whether we proceed with the scheme or not we will never get those resources, that money back." which is only true if you are somebody who doesn't think it will work. If we proceed, he money spent to date (which now includes a lot of land acquisiton, much of the groundwork at Euston and Curzon St, two TBMs with an ever increasing length of completed tunnel and quite a lot of survey and ground preparation along the route), will be part of that recovered over the 120 years projected life as demostrated in the BCR , i.e. and investment.

 

[Roast Veg]

So 155000 people want the two currently operating tunnel boring machines stopped/dismantled/scapped, the thousands of fabricated tunnel lining segments destroyed, the hundreds of workers laid off, all the construction compunds abandoned, and all the existing signed contracts paid off via termination agreements?

I do not understand the relentless inertia to construction of any kind we have in UK politics.

 

[AM9]

So 155000 people want the two currently operating tunnel boring machines stopped/dismantled/scapped, the thousands of fabricated tunnel lining segments destroyed, the hundreds of workers laid off, all the construction compunds abandoned, and all the existing signed contracts paid off via termination agreements?

I do not understand the relentless inertia to construction of any kind we have in UK politics.

Most of the inertia to HS2 comes from Conservative MPs who:

a) have constituency majorities where loss of nimby support might cost them the seat​

b) have a congenital dislike of public transport (or indeed public funded anything!)​

c) have personal business interests that don't benefit with the needs of a decent public transport system​

Not really worth worrying about as HS2 will prove a necessity before it's too late.

 

[camflyer]

The fallacious comment in the 'expert' Adam Smith piece is: "Whether we proceed with the scheme or not we will never get those resources, that money back." which is only true if you are somebody who doesn't think it will work. If we proceed, he money spent to date (which now includes a lot of land acquisiton, much of the groundwork at Euston and Curzon St, two TBMs with an ever increasing length of completed tunnel and quite a lot of survey and ground preparation along the route), will be part of that recovered over the 120 years projected life as demostrated in the BCR , i.e. and investment.

Should we even expect to get the money spent on HS2 back at all? Nobody ever asks whether the M25 has recovered its building costs.

The whole point of infrastructure is to enable further development but it doesn't guarantee it. However, development without infrastructure is a lot harder.

 

[BrianW]

So 155000 people want the two currently operating tunnel boring machines stopped/dismantled/scapped, the thousands of fabricated tunnel lining segments destroyed, the hundreds of workers laid off, all the construction compunds abandoned, and all the existing signed contracts paid off via termination agreements?

I do not understand the relentless inertia to construction of any kind we have in UK politics.

The Government has a majority in parliament of 80 seats.
Many seats were won in the so-called Red Wall in the north of England in the 2019 General Election.
The Government lost the by-election in Chesham and Amersham the 'safe seat' of the late Cheryl Gillan known mainly for her strident opposition to HS2.
The Government can do whatever it decides, subject to sustaining its majority in Parliament.
All that was in the Conservative manifesto for the 1991 General Election regarding HS2 was:
HS2 is a great ambition, but will now cost at least £81 billion and will not reach Leeds or Manchester until as late as 2040.
We will consider the findings of the Oakervee review into costs and timings and work with leaders of the Midlands and the North to decide the optimal outcome.
That was pre-Covid and related expenditures on NHS and Furlough.
I'm not holding my breath; what any of us here might think, it really doesn't count anywhere in Downing Street.

 

[Roast Veg]

The Government has a majority in parliament of 80 seats.
Many seats were won in the so-called Red Wall in the north of England in the 2019 General Election.
The Government lost the by-election in Chesham and Amersham the 'safe seat' of the late Cheryl Gillan known mainly for her strident opposition to HS2.
The Government can do whatever it decides, subject to sustaining its majority in Parliament

Infrastructure-wise, cancelling/deferring HS2 East and NPR are likely to be about the worst possible move for sustaining the seats gained in the red wall. How many voters that represents is beyond my reckoning.

 

[Ken H]

Infrastructure-wise, cancelling/deferring HS2 East and NPR are likely to be about the worst possible move for sustaining the seats gained in the red wall. How many voters that represents is beyond my reckoning.

the red wall as in unfashionable towns in the North. Places that will get little benefit from HS2. I think many will see it as an expensive irrelevance. They would rather the money was spent fixing potholes or more GP's

 

[camflyer]

So 155000 people want the two currently operating tunnel boring machines stopped/dismantled/scapped, the thousands of fabricated tunnel lining segments destroyed, the hundreds of workers laid off, all the construction compunds abandoned, and all the existing signed contracts paid off via termination agreements?

I do not understand the relentless inertia to construction of any kind we have in UK politics.

Reading the comment section on that Daily Mail article is an eye-opener into how some people think. It's depressing.

 

[Ianno87]

the red wall as in unfashionable towns in the North. Places that will get little benefit from HS2. I think many will see it as an expensive irrelevance. They would rather the money was spent fixing potholes or more GP's

As in places in County Durham (served by HS2), Northumberland (served by HS2), South and West Yorkshire (served by HS2), Greater Manchester (served by HS2) and Cumbria (served by HS2)?

 

[Ken H]

As in places in County Durham (served by HS2), Northumberland (served by HS2), South and West Yorkshire (served by HS2), Greater Manchester (served by HS2) and Cumbria (served by HS2)?

barnsley, Blyth, workington, Dewsbury, Barrow, Rochdale, Blackburn. I dont think people who live there will think they are 'served by HS2.

 

[Ianno87]

barnsley, Blyth, workington, Dewsbury, Barrow, Rochdale, Blackburn. I dont think people who live there will think they are 'served by HS2.

I see we're at the "HS2 is a bad idea because it doesn't go to Aberystwyth/Barnstaple/Clacton/Dundee/... "stage of the debate.

 

[Ken H]

I see we're at the "HS2 is a bad idea because it doesn't go to Aberystwyth/Barnstaple/Clacton/Dundee/... "stage of the debate.

no. its just I dont see HS2 as a vote winner in many northern towns.

 

[edwin_m]

If there's a fast link from, say, Sheffield to Leeds, then it should also help someone going from Dore to Castleford because they can connect at both ends. This does however need the local services connecting to the HS2 stations to be reliable and reasonably fast too - not always the case.

 

[24Grange]

But what percentage of the "redwall" if you like, will use and benefit from the HS2 line ( and freed up capacity it causes on other lines) ? What percentage of the general population will actually use the line ( what percentage across the country actually use public transport rather than car?) . If you have ministers, who never travel by train , and a general population, a low percentage of which actively use public transport (re trains) in their lives. You then end up with the "Nimby" rationale ,as all they can see is a new very expensive resource, steaming past their village or house - which they themselves will never ( or their friends and family) travel on and cannot see the need for- but will impact them ( as they see it negatively)

 

[AM9]

Reading the comment section on that Daily Mail article is an eye-opener into how some people think. It's depressing.

Well it must be absolutely true without any bias or exaggeration as it is in the Daily Mail.

 

[fishwomp]

If there's a fast link from, say, Sheffield to Leeds, then it should also help someone going from Dore to Castleford because they can connect at both ends. This does however need the local services connecting to the HS2 stations to be reliable and reasonably fast too - not always the case.

Dore-Castleford is a particularly poor example: let's read what the HS2 plan actually is: https://www.hs2.org.uk/stations/sheffield-midland/ - it's a link from the HS2 to Chesterfield and Sheffield on the existing line. It reads very much to me that you won't be able to have a direct Sheffield-Leeds HS2 service, or if you did it would be on the existing tracks.

Unsurprisingly that page extols the virtues of using Sheffield Midland - "It also allows for core HS2 services to run into Sheffield Midland without necessitating the cost and environmental impacts associated with building a dedicated high speed station in a dense, urban environment, whilst at the same time allowing an easy, cross-platform interchange to places across the city region by rail..." - try reading that whilst thinking about Curzon Street..

 

[JamesT]

Dore-Castleford is a particularly poor example: let's read what the HS2 plan actually is: https://www.hs2.org.uk/stations/sheffield-midland/ - it's a link from the HS2 to Chesterfield and Sheffield on the existing line. It reads very much to me that you won't be able to have a direct Sheffield-Leeds HS2 service, or if you did it would be on the existing tracks.

Unsurprisingly that page extols the virtues of using Sheffield Midland - "It also allows for core HS2 services to run into Sheffield Midland without necessitating the cost and environmental impacts associated with building a dedicated high speed station in a dense, urban environment, whilst at the same time allowing an easy, cross-platform interchange to places across the city region by rail..." - try reading that whilst thinking about Curzon Street..

Although that page mentions Sheffield-Leeds in the context of NPR, the HS2 route map shows a link North of Mexborough from the existing network back onto HS2.

I’m fairly sure if there had been any sensible way to get HS2 into New Street it would have been tried. All the other major city stations involve modifying the existing station. But New Street is full and there was this nice empty space nearby…

 

[37424]

Well it must be absolutely true without any bias or exaggeration as it is in the Daily Mail.

Indeed I saw a comment on MSN about HS2 not being able to serve such as Stoke on Trent, or that HS2 trains wouldn't be able go to Manchester until HS2 was completed to Manchester because the platforms were too short, until I pointed out to him that HS2 includes a link to the West Coast route which would enable HS2 to serve Stoke and that the initial trains would be classic compatible and able to use most existing routes and mainline stations, and he probably had more knowledge than most.

 

[edwin_m]

Dore-Castleford is a particularly poor example: let's read what the HS2 plan actually is: https://www.hs2.org.uk/stations/sheffield-midland/ - it's a link from the HS2 to Chesterfield and Sheffield on the existing line. It reads very much to me that you won't be able to have a direct Sheffield-Leeds HS2 service, or if you did it would be on the existing tracks.

Unsurprisingly that page extols the virtues of using Sheffield Midland - "It also allows for core HS2 services to run into Sheffield Midland without necessitating the cost and environmental impacts associated with building a dedicated high speed station in a dense, urban environment, whilst at the same time allowing an easy, cross-platform interchange to places across the city region by rail..." - try reading that whilst thinking about Curzon Street..

Although that page mentions Sheffield-Leeds in the context of NPR, the HS2 route map shows a link North of Mexborough from the existing network back onto HS2.

I’m fairly sure if there had been any sensible way to get HS2 into New Street it would have been tried. All the other major city stations involve modifying the existing station. But New Street is full and there was this nice empty space nearby…

I was thinking more of NPR than HS2 when I wrote that post. A better example would be something like Shirley to Castleford.

Most of the Curzon Street site was essentially derelict for however many years it was since the rail parcels depot closed, so building a dedicated high speed station is relatively easy there, as is the approach along the M6 corridor. It doesn't allow cross-platform interchange but will have an entrance next to that of Moor Street, with New Street a short walk or tram ride away and hopefully they will create some sort of moving walkway to link them more closely. There's no way closer integration could have been achieved in Birmingham without demolishing much of the city centre or creating a hugely costly and probably quite unpleasant multi-platform underground station.

Sheffield doesn't have land vacant for a new station near the city centre or for a new line to access one - using the Victoria site would interchange with nothing except a few buses. However it will have far fewer HS trains than Birmingham so using the existing station is possible. That may or may not be a better choice than a faster and probably more frequent service at Meadowhall, but the city indicated they didn't want that and the ship has now sailed.

 

[HSTEd]

I think South Yorkshire will come to regret the choice to demand the abandonment of Meadowhall in favour of an extremely slow access to the Sheffield-City station

Assuming HS2 East actually happens at all.

 

[backontrack]

I see we're at the "HS2 is a bad idea because it doesn't go to Aberystwyth/Barnstaple/Clacton/Dundee/... "stage of the debate.

Dundee is not on par with Barnstaple! I'm pro-HS2 but this is an odd jest.

 

[camflyer]

Indeed I saw a comment on MSN about HS2 not being able to serve such as Stoke on Trent, or that HS2 trains wouldn't be able go to Manchester until HS2 was completed to Manchester because the platforms were too short, until I pointed out to him that HS2 includes a link to the West Coast route which would enable HS2 to serve Stoke and that the initial trains would be classic compatible and able to use most existing routes and mainline stations, and he probably had more knowledge than most.

Saw one comment in the Daily Mail article saying that HS2 won't serve Birmingham city centre and you'll have to change onto a "normal train" from the interchange station to get there.

Plus the usual uninformed claims that we should "widen the existing lines", "repopen the Great Central" or "buy double decker trains".

 

[Ken H]

Saw one comment in the Daily Mail article saying that HS2 won't serve Birmingham city centre and you'll have to change onto a "normal train" from the interchange station to get there.

Plus the usual uninformed claims that we should "widen the existing lines", "repopen the Great Central" or "buy double decker trains".

I think they should have built a full size bored tunnel under brum and built a low level HS2 station under New St. That would have meant London-Manc trains could have gone via Birmingham.
Look at the North-South railway under Berlin, and the low level platforms at Hauptbanhof. Or the stuff they have done at Antwerpen.

 

[Starmill]

Dundee is not on par with Barnstaple! I'm pro-HS2 but this is an odd jest.

I think that it wasn't an entirely serious list. It was just a list of secondary and tertiary centres

Also, Dundee probably isn't actually that difficult to serve by HS2 in the 40s. The Scottish Government could probably achieve it if they really wanted by covering the lease on an extra pair of train sets and money for ScotRail for providing the crew. Whether it would worth it if classic services to London are retained I do not know.

 

[camflyer]

I think they should have built a full size bored tunnel under brum and built a low level HS2 station under New St. That would have meant London-Manc trains could have gone via Birmingham.
Look at the North-South railway under Berlin, and the low level platforms at Hauptbanhof. Or the stuff they have done at Antwerpen.

What would that have done to the overall budget? Also it wouldn't have led to the redevelopment of the Curzon St area

Trouble is that for everyone who thinks HS2 is too expensive there are others who think it's not expensive enough

 

[JonathanH]

Trouble is that for everyone who thinks HS2 is too expensive there are others who think it's not expensive enough

More like people don't realise how much more expensive the alternatives they put forward would be.

 

[Purple Orange]

What would that have done to the overall budget? Also it wouldn't have led to the redevelopment of the Curzon St area

Trouble is that for everyone who thinks HS2 is too expensive there are others who think it's not expensive enough

That is what many have pushed for in Manchester. It won’t happen of course.

 

[WestRiding]

Leeds leg of HS2 to be 'axed imminently' over catastrophic costs

HS2’s costs have ballooned from £32.7billion when the project was approved in 2012 to £107.7bn.

www.leeds-live.co.uk

The eastern leg of HS2 will be all-but-axed over catastrophic costs – making a mockery of Boris Johnson’s “levelling up” promise.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Leeds leg of HS2 to be 'axed imminently' over catastrophic costs

HS2’s costs have ballooned from £32.7billion when the project was approved in 2012 to £107.7bn.

www.leeds-live.co.uk

Been an open secret for months not a surprise.

Shame.

 

[AM9]

Been an open secret for months not a surprise.

Shame.

Still peddling the same old lies and misrepresenting the situation.