Could/should HS2 Eastern leg be shelved?

[HSTEd]

Still peddling the same old lies and misrepresenting the situation.

The evidence that the scheme will be axed is certainly mounting, a long with the rather suspicious delay to the Integrated Rail Plan.

 

[Ianno87]

I think they should have built a full size bored tunnel under brum and built a low level HS2 station under New St. That would have meant London-Manc trains could have gone via Birmingham.
Look at the North-South railway under Berlin, and the low level platforms at Hauptbanhof. Or the stuff they have done at Antwerpen.

"Look at what they have done in Berlin"

I.e. on a basically Brownfield site (historically caused by the East/West division of the city), not in the middle of a built up city centre.

 

[HSTEd]

"Look at what they have done in Berlin"

I.e. on a basically Brownfield site (historically caused by the East/West division of the city), not in the middle of a built up city centre.

I'm really not sure these comparisons are that useful.

If we had got an HS2 scheme going via central Birmingham it would be such a different scheme in terms of how it would be operated that I don't think it's really relevant.

We would have got a station far more akin to Old Oak Common (in operation, not in looks!) than anything else.

The most expensive part of such a station would be access shafts, and that would depend entirely on the projected number of passengers.

 

[strawbrick]

In an article in the Leeds Live website today under the headline "Leeds leg of HS2 to be 'axed imminently' over catastrophic costs" there is the statement that "Leeds has already started work on a £500million station to serve HS2, with other projects in the city relying on it."

Is this true? If so, does anyone know how much has been spent and what on?

 

[philosopher]

I'm really not sure these comparisons are that useful.

If we had got an HS2 scheme going via central Birmingham it would be such a different scheme in terms of how it would be operated that I don't think it's really relevant.

We would have got a station far more akin to Old Oak Common (in operation, not in looks!) than anything else.

The most expensive part of such a station would be access shafts, and that would depend entirely on the projected number of passengers.

An HS2 station under New Street I suspect would be a nightmare to construct. There is no space to dig the station box without bulldozing much of Central Birmingham. Building such a station therefore would probably have to built by creating a vast underground cavern with only a couple access shafts.

 

[HSTEd]

An HS2 station under New Street I suspect would be a nightmare to construct. There is no space to dig the station box without bulldozing much of Central Birmingham. Building such a station therefore would probably have to built by creating a vast underground cavern with only a couple access shafts.

I doubt you would see the station being constructed as a "cavern".

More likely you would use modern large diameter TBMs and simply bore a tunnel for each pair of platforms you wanted, from the edge of the city or another convenient launch point if one is available.

The Barcelona Metro model demonstrates you can now easily fit two platforms into a TBM tunnel, and we have dramatically larger TBMs now, so you might even get more than two platforms in each tunnel.

 

[Mojo]

Given the amount of derelict land in Birmingham city centre, it really would not have made sense to build a tunnel underneath the city to create through trains. They are very lucky to have had a brownfield site that was perfect for the task, with very little demolition required.

 

[jfollows]

The Observer: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-leg-to-leeds-may-be-scrapped-new-leak-claims
Presumably the same source as for the Leeds Live website.
EDIT The article quotes the same Sunday Mirror source as used by Leeds Live and others, but the Observer article is at least written by its journalist with some of her own views and opinions.

HS2 eastern leg to Leeds may be scrapped, new leak claims

Tory MPs celebrate the demise of a ‘hugely expensive white elephant’, while other northern leaders dismayed

The Department for Transport deny the decision has been made about extending the eastern leg to Leeds.

Helen Pidd North of England editor

Sun 22 Aug 2021 15.27 BST

Northern leaders have reacted with dismay to further claims that HS2’s eastern leg to Leeds may be scrapped, while some “red wall” Tory MPs celebrated the mooted demise of a “hugely expensive white elephant”.

All summer, leaks from Whitehall have suggested the government is set to ditch plans to extend the high-speed rail to Leeds. The latest, in the Sunday Mirror, quoted an anonymous source as saying that halting the eastern leg will save £40bn and “there’s no way we’re going to see this built in our lifetimes”.

The Department for Transport denied the decision had been made, saying the much-delayed Integrated Rail Plan will “soon” outline the way ahead for major rail projects. That will include HS2 phase B, which was supposed to contain the western leg to Manchester and the eastern leg to Leeds.

Henri Murison, the director of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, which represents northern businesses, warned: “Without the western and eastern legs to Manchester and Sheffield on to Leeds as well as into north-east England, the whole of HS2 will be undermined in achieving its full economic benefits.”

James Lewis, the leader of Leeds city council, said the latest leak jeopardised 10 years of planning and consultation that had gained cross-party support along the eastern route. “I will be hugely disappointed if we are back to the drawing board,” he said. “The constant pipeline of projects in London moving forward suggests that levelling up isn’t in operation.”

Leeds station is currently the busiest in the north, and is a notorious bottleneck. HS2 was supposed to include a new station in the city.

Tracy Brabin, the mayor of West Yorkshire, said: “The government cannot talk about levelling up and a commitment to the north without addressing the decades of underinvestment across our transport networks.

“The eastern leg of HS2 is essential to providing the rail services that work for our communities, as part of a joined-up transport system that connects people to better jobs, better education, and more opportunities.”

Others celebrated the notion HS2 might never reach Yorkshire. Alexander Stafford, MP for the Rother Valley, is among several opponents to HS2 among the Conservatives’ 2019 red wall intake.

He said: “What we need is the money invested in transport infrastructure that might actually bring a tangible benefit to seats like mine. We need a better bus service and better links to Manchester across the pennines rather than a hugely expensive white elephant that is sucking resources out of areas like mine and will only benefit a tiny number of people living in central Leeds.”

Supporters of HS2 argue the project is about opening up capacity and connectivity with both the west and east coast mainlines full, pre-Covid. It is currently projected to cost at least £103bn.

Speculation has been rife that HS2 would never reach Yorkshire since January 2020, when the newly appointed HS2 minister, Andrew Stephenson, pledged to “bring forward legislation to bring high-speed rail into Manchester as soon as practical” but made no mention of Leeds.

In October, Transport for the North, the statutory body that advises the government on the region’s transport needs, expressed fears that scenarios the government was considering “all fall short of what is needed for full funding of HS2” as well as Northern Powerhouse Rail, a new trans-Pennine line.

Then in July, the government asked HS2 Ltd – the company set up in 2009 to develop, build and operate HS2 – to pause work on the eastern spur but proceed with development of the western spur (from Crewe to Manchester).

That month, West Midlands mayor Andy Street, formerly one of HS2’s biggest champions, told shocked MPs that he thought the eastern leg was not necessary for businesses in his region.

A western leg bill is being prepared for deposit to parliament in early 2022, HS2 Ltd said.

Murison suggested the eastern leg was not dead yet because the prime minister, chancellor and transport secretary have not yet formally discussed the integrated rail plan.

“A number of advisers in Whitehall have never liked this project, and told newspapers regularly on Sundays the project would be cancelled before the prime minister fully recommitted to it,” he said.

He urged the government to go ahead with the whole project, but “building from the north down as should have happened originally”.

 

[reddragon]

The reality check has long been that the northern powerhouse project greatly changes the existing case for the eastern leg. Why have another route when services to Manchester could go to Leeds and Sheffield.

I foresee a fundamental change to the east, maybe relating to the ECML

 

[Roast Veg]

The reality check has long been that the northern powerhouse project greatly changes the existing case for the eastern leg. Why have another route when services to Manchester could go to Leeds and Sheffield.

I completely fail to see why NPR changes the benefit of HS2 east. The Birmingham/Nottingham/Sheffield/Leeds corridor gains no benefit from the construction of a new link between Liverpool/Manchester/Leeds/Hull.

 

[HSTEd]

I completely fail to see why NPR changes the benefit of HS2 east. The Birmingham/Nottingham/Sheffield/Leeds corridor gains no benefit from the construction of a new link between Liverpool/Manchester/Leeds/Hull.

If a fast transpennine route exists then the business case for all of HS2 East north of Chesterfield completely vanishes, the colleteral from that kills most of the rest of it.

You end up building a stub to Toton/East Midlands Parkway and that's about it - if you are lucky.

 

[snowball]

The reality check has long been that the northern powerhouse project greatly changes the existing case for the eastern leg. Why have another route when services to Manchester could go to Leeds and Sheffield.

There is no current proposal for a high-speed Manchester-Sheffield line, just minor improvements to Hope Valley. Certainly nothing that could make London to Sheffield via Manchester plausible.

 

[reddragon]

There is no current proposal for a high-speed Manchester-Sheffield line, just minor improvements to Hope Valley. Certainly nothing that could make London to Sheffield via Manchester plausible.

The political pressure for high speed transpennine exceeds that of the eastern leg as does it's value.

 

[HSTEd]

There is no current proposal for a high-speed Manchester-Sheffield line, just minor improvements to Hope Valley. Certainly nothing that could make London to Sheffield via Manchester plausible.

The depressing thing is it is likely that London-Manchester by HS2 and then reversing to take the Hope valley for Sheffield will be competitive (~2hr) with the current Midland Main Line route.

 

[ohgoditsjames]

I've been saying it for the past 4 years, Sheffield will get absolutely nothing from either HS2 or NPR. In fact I'll go one step further, it will not see any significant spending on anything heavy rail related, unless of course, the MML electrification finally makes it to Sheffield.

The last time Sheffield station saw any major development was 1905! Since then many major stations around the country have seen rebuilds and remodels, some are on track for their second or even third rebuild/remodel.

Railway backwater, just about sums up the attitude of this city.

 

[Roast Veg]

If a fast transpennine route exists then the business case for all of HS2 East north of Chesterfield completely vanishes, the colleteral from that kills most of the rest of it.

You end up building a stub to Toton/East Midlands Parkway and that's about it - if you are lucky.

But if HS2 East is cancelled then so is the stub, surely? The "stub" is almost half of the route miles when accounting for classic lines for Chesterfield isn't it?

 

[HSTEd]

But if HS2 East is cancelled then so is the stub, surely? The "stub" is almost half of the route miles when accounting for classic lines for Chesterfield isn't it?

The stub is by far the best business case part of the route.

So if the government dramatically want to cut costs a stub to East Midlands Parkway (being closer than Toton) is a reasonable way to do this whilst saving face

But I expect it will all be axed.

EDIT:

I don't think it's half once you account for all the trackwork and the branch to York.....

 

[ohgoditsjames]

There is no current proposal for a high-speed Manchester-Sheffield line, just minor improvements to Hope Valley. Certainly nothing that could make London to Sheffield via Manchester plausible.

There isn't, but there should be. The rail and road connections between Manchester and Sheffield are an absolute joke.

 

[AM9]

The evidence that the scheme will be axed is certainly mounting, a long with the rather suspicious delay to the Integrated Rail Plan.

I was referring to the: "HS2’s costs have ballooned from £32.7billion when the project was approved in 2012 to £107.7bn." drivel. This is a Leeds media source weaving a story for local interests.

 

[HSTEd]

There isn't, but there should be. The rail and road connections between Manchester and Sheffield are an absolute joke.

The road scheme was abandoned at the request of Transport for the North

 

[59CosG95]

I was referring to the: "HS2’s costs have ballooned from £32.7billion when the project was approved in 2012 to £107.7bn." drivel. This is a Leeds media source weaving a story for local interests.

The Leicester Mercury have also posted a similar article, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was basically copied verbatim.
See here: https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/hs2-birmingham-leeds-extension-through-5817506

Some of the sentences are indeed exactly the same.

 

[ohgoditsjames]

The road scheme was abandoned at the rest of Transport for the North

Precisely why the rail connection between the two cities needs some serious investment, trouble is, the Hope Valley line leaves little room for any significant improvement.

 

[Greybeard33]

The Leicester Mercury have also posted a similar article, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was basically copied verbatim.
See here: https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/hs2-birmingham-leeds-extension-through-5817506

Some of the sentences are indeed exactly the same.

The story originates from a Sunday Mirror "exclusive":

HS2's east leg set to be axed to save £40bn in mockery of PM's 'level up' pledge

The cost of HS2 has shot up from £32.7billion when approved and the eastern leg will now be all but axed despite Transport Secretary Grant Shapps vowing to build it in full as recently as May

www.mirror.co.uk

The various Mirror Group local papers have cloned it virtually verbatim.

 

[snowball]

But if HS2 East is cancelled then so is the stub, surely? The "stub" is almost half of the route miles when accounting for classic lines for Chesterfield isn't it?

But the newspaper reports claiming that the whole of HS2 East will be cancelled could well be journalistic oversimplification of an actual proposal to cut it short to the East Midlands - which has been talked about ever since a report by the National Infrastructure Commission appeared to recommend it. Note that the Mirror quote says "all but axed".

 

[59CosG95]

The story originates from a Sunday Mirror "exclusive":

HS2's east leg set to be axed to save £40bn in mockery of PM's 'level up' pledge

The cost of HS2 has shot up from £32.7billion when approved and the eastern leg will now be all but axed despite Transport Secretary Grant Shapps vowing to build it in full as recently as May

www.mirror.co.uk

The various Mirror Group local papers have cloned it virtually verbatim.

These local papers must all be part of the Mirror Group; their websites are virtually identical save for the name banner and colours.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

But the newspaper reports claiming that the whole of HS2 East will be cancelled could well be journalistic oversimplification of an actual proposal to cut it short to the East Midlands - which has been talked about ever since a report by the National Infrastructure Commission appeared to recommend it. Note that the Mirror quote says "all but axed".

This is the report,

Rail Needs Assessment for the Midlands and the North: Final report - NIC

nic.org.uk

One of the options put forward by the NIC was to prioritise regional links by building a new high speed line from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway and then running along existing lines to Nottingham and an Upgraded Erewash valley line to Chesterfield and Sheffield.

Regional +50% option

https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-PDF-Regional-50-per-cent-map.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0ixiJBg_YwtIcdbs05uoD2SkDPAQe9I2lrp-w9-Kj1g0HLnFis1kMuvaw

Cheaper regional +25% option

https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-PDF-Regional-25-per-cent-map.pdf

I suspect the government will want to try and keep some line to the East Midlands (perhaps rebranded as phase 2c?) while selling an upgrade to NPR as a benefit to Sheffield and Leeds.

 

[59CosG95]

This is the report,

Rail Needs Assessment for the Midlands and the North: Final report - NIC

nic.org.uk

One of the options put forward by the NIC was to prioritise regional links by building a new high speed line from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway and then running along existing lines to Nottingham and an Upgraded Erewash valley line to Chesterfield and Sheffield.

Regional +50% option

https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-PDF-Regional-50-per-cent-map.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0ixiJBg_YwtIcdbs05uoD2SkDPAQe9I2lrp-w9-Kj1g0HLnFis1kMuvaw

Cheaper regional +25% option

https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-PDF-Regional-25-per-cent-map.pdf

I suspect the government will want to try and keep some line to the East Midlands (perhaps rebranded as phase 2c?) while selling an upgrade to NPR as a benefit to Sheffield and Leeds.

Upgrading the Erewash Valley Line does seem to add up with the lack of funding for the route in MMLE Phase 3...perhaps the upgraded EVL will receive masts in that package.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Upgrading the Erewash Valley Line does seem to add up with the lack of funding for the route in MMLE Phase 3...perhaps the upgraded EVL will receive masts in that package.

Someone more technical may be able to advise but I thought most of the complex engineering on the Eastern arm was North of Toton. I don't know how much a Birmingham to East Midlands line would cost compared to say phase 2a from Birmingham to Crewe?

I suspect that the Erewash valley would be restored to 4 tracks with HS2 services using the Eastern pair of lines?

 

[Greybeard33]

But the newspaper reports claiming that the whole of HS2 East will be cancelled could well be journalistic oversimplification of an actual proposal to cut it short to the East Midlands - which has been talked about ever since a report by the National Infrastructure Commission appeared to recommend it. Note that the Mirror quote says "all but axed".

I think "all but axed" in the story is a paraphrase of the quote from the "Whitehall source" that

“They might make some announcement about doing the work in the future but everyone involved knows the truth."

Meaning that the whole of the eastern leg will be postponed indefinitely rather than formally cancelled, not that part of it will go ahead.

 

[Ken H]

Someone more technical may be able to advise but I thought most of the complex engineering on the Eastern arm was North of Toton. I don't know how much a Birmingham to East Midlands line would cost compared to say phase 2a from Birmingham to Crewe?

between Nottingham and W Yorks its a mining area. We know from the manchester-preston electrification that heavy engineering in an ex mining area is difficult and unpredictable. Its quite hilly too which complicates it further. The Cheshire Plain is an easier proposition.