New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[DB]

In that scenario - which I agree is unlikely - you appear to condone the possibility that hospitalisations and deaths would routinely hit their current levels. What makes you think that society as a whole is willing to stomach those levels of excess deaths? Bear in mind that if vaccination proved, long term, that weak a preventative method, natural immunity would also be unlikely to play much role.

I ask again, what's your alternative? Society cannot exist under the present vicious restrictions on an indefinite basis - it's simply not possible.

And the excess deaths simply wouldn't carry on at that rate as it would hit equilibrium sooner or later.

 

[Horizon22]

I'm wondering who the 'Whitehall Source' is. For all we know it could be a cleaner who has overheard something. Or it could be someone over exaggerating on what has actually been discussed to get a more sensational story.

Also until Autumn could be anytime between September and December.

That's classic for this government though "unnamed Whitehall sources" are very common. I think that as others have posted above, the government are trailing this to judge the reaction. Personally I think there will be a push to the end of Februrary and assess then. I can't possibly see a scenario that doesn't lead to a loosening of restrictions when practically everyone who accounts for 90% of deaths has had 1 or 2 jabs that are proven in Israel - as well as preliminary research in Europe - to have a significant impact on hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[Yew]

Bear in mind that if vaccination proved, long term, that weak a preventative method, natural immunity would also be unlikely to play much role.

I don't comprehend why we're even considering such fantastically unlikely doomsday scenarios.

 

[NorthOxonian]

That's classic for this government though "unnamed Whitehall sources" are very common. I think that as others have posted above, the government are trailing this to judge the reaction. Personally I think there will be a push to the end of Februrary and assess then. I can't possibly see a scenario that doesn't lead to a loosening of restrictions when practically everyone who accounts for 90% of deaths has had 1 or 2 jabs that are proven in Israel - as well as preliminary research in Europe - to have a significant impact on hospitalisations and deaths.

Part of me wishes the timeline for release was a couple of weeks later than the 22nd February. Purely because the data will be much clearer in early March, and that will focus minds and perhaps quicken the release. It seems unlikely the vaccine effects will be quite so obvious in the next week or so, and so the government have more leeway to be conservative with their plan.

 

[Horizon22]

Part of me wishes the timeline for release was a couple of weeks later than the 22nd February. Purely because the data will be much clearer in early March, and that will focus minds and perhaps quicken the release. It seems unlikely the vaccine effects will be quite so obvious in the next week or so, and so the government have more leeway to be conservative with their plan.

Yes - another 16 days should be a little extra. Even if the review is set for 22nd Feb, another week to assess the data and start fresh from a new month should hopefully be palatable if its more likely to lead to a removal of restrictions.

 

[brad465]

I ask again, what's your alternative? Society cannot exist under the present vicious restrictions on an indefinite basis - it's simply not possible.

And the excess deaths simply wouldn't carry on at that rate as it would hit equilibrium sooner or later.

What worries me a bit is that in the next decade onwards more of the baby boomer generation will be reaching life expectancy, which means by default there will be more deaths in the population. This should be expected and is the reality of life and death, but if this last year is anything to go by, if the rise in deaths numerically isn't clearly outlined as being caused by a higher population overall, many will start raising alarms and cause changes to society that makes quality of life poorer.

 

[david1212]

This thread has moved on today ....

.... I see there was a story on the news about how it might be better to wear *two* masks, which needless to say some people on social media seem to be latching on to.

....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9251997/Social-distancing-mask-rules-AUTUMN.html

[QUOTE
Social distancing and mask rules will have to last until at least AUTUMN | Daily Mail Online
....

This segment of this article from The Sun is of grave grave concern to me.

Key dates Covid lockdown rules may ease 10 days from Boris Johnson announcement

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will set out his lockdown exit strategy for England in 10 days and the easing of restrictions could begin with the reopening of schools in March

www.mirror.co.uk

It quotes that not just these so called professors are saying social distancing and face mask wearing could remain in place for the rest of the year and possibly into 2022, it quotes that a Whitehall source is saying "that social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn." So going by that, it seems the government have already made their mind up that this damaging social distancing will have to continue until at least the autumn??!! If this ends up happening, this years festivals and events industry will be very unfairly wiped out yet again for the second year in a row. Along with many thousands of businesses in the hospitality industry unable to survive and going under! Along with all the other damaging effects this will have on the nation's mental health. This really should not be allowed to happen!

Hospital numbers and deaths are continuing to fall and fall week on week! Within just a couple of months time they will all be very very low! There will be no absolutely no need whatsoever for this social distancing and face mask wearing to continue any longer! The government needs to start getting this country back to normal again. Social distancing and face mask wearing requirements for many months to come yet is not normal, and will be completely unacceptable.

Yet still I have not seen a report with clear evidence that masks have any significant effect in reducing transmission / infection in most situations where they are currently legally required to be worn.

If holidays abroad are still banned then UK beaches will be packed, along with the roads and railways that lead to them. It happened last year. I suspect it will be worse this year given that many people will have been vaccinated.

I personally don't think packed beaches are such an issue, however I can see there being a crunch on hotel and holiday home capacity.

I wonder now compared to 50 years ago how many fewer holiday beds there are in the UK ?

Many Butlins style sites have closed. This century I have found numerous small guest houses and self-catering units I have stayed at had closed when I tried to book again a few years later. In my local town the two big hotels have closed. Against this Travelodge, Premier Inn etc have arrived.

The problem with masks and distancing being the "new normal" is that the furlough scheme, which has enabled the restrictions to be put in place without causing massive unemployment, is completely unaffordable in the long term.

The cost of all the lockdown measures has been swept under the carpet so far, but there is going to come a point when these costs can be concealed no longer. I think that point will be the budget on March 3rd, where the measures that will be taken to stimulate economic growth will be based on the anticipated reopening of the economy laid out in the lockdown exit plan.

If you end the furlough scheme without easing the restrictions, then many businesses will go under, and unemployment will go through the roof,just like it did in the early 1980s, which resulted in riots in the spring and summer of 1981.

And if you don't ease the restrictions some time in the spring, many businesses will go under anyway, as they are just about hanging on in the hope that the lockdown exit plan will enable them to trade profitably.

So I still think that restrictions will ease progressively over the spring and summer, if only because it is better to do this when there is good weather, and respiratory viruses have a low prevalence. Some things, like track & trace for pubs, may be retained over a longer period, just until the government can see where the main sources of transmission of the virus are. Masks may well become optional after everyone has been vaccinated.

Even with furlough for staff there are still overheads. I'm aware there are various loan and grant schemes but first how much do they cover and second how much in time has to be repaid ?

Eventually some on furlough will become unemployed. The timing of allowing business to reopen and the remaining restrictions will influence how many staff are required and if the business is viable at all.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

The i is predicting a fairly rapid reopening from the 8th March onwards....

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a three-stage plan for reopening the economy from lockdown that could allow pubs across England to serve customers again by Easter weekend at the beginning of April, i can reveal.

A senior Government official has told this newspaper the Prime Minister’s road map out of lockdown will begin with the reopening of schools, already scheduled for 8 March.

If scientific data shows the R number, which fell below one on Friday for the first time since July, remains low and coronavirus infections remain at an “acceptable level”, then the Prime Minister will give the green light to non-essential shops reopening towards the end of March.

If, in the week leading up to Good Friday on 2 April, there is no significant rise in the R number or infections, then the final stage of Mr Johnson’s plan would be put into action, allowing hospitality businesses, including hotels, restaurants and pubs, to open their doors again from the Easter weekend.

This would also herald a return to staycations,

The plan, which will depend on cases continuing to fall quickly, has caused concern among some who believe a full opening up of the economy by Easter will be too early. Scientists will also be urging caution.

However, the road map, which is expected to be launched on 22 February in time to give schools two weeks’ notice of their reopening, will please many of Mr Johnson’s backbench MPs, who have been clamouring for weeks for lockdown to end.

Boris Johnson's three-stage roadmap out of lockdown that could see pubs open by Easter

Government official says the Prime Minister has also been persuaded to axe the tier system which many experts believe did little to prevent the spread of the virus

inews.co.uk

I also note that Mark Drakeford in Wales has suggested Easter for leisure and tourism etc to reopen in Wales.

Talks are being held about lifting some lockdown restrictions in Wales by Easter.

First Minister Mark Drakeford has been talking about the "pathway to opening society" by the spring as cases in Wales continue to fall, and the vaccination programme hits the first target.

People in Wales have been living with Level 4 restrictions since December 20, and the next review is due to be held next Friday (February 19).

Speaking to BBC Breakfast on Friday (February 12), Mr Drakeford said that discussions were being held with tourism and hospitality leaders in Wales about the possibility of opening up around Easter, which is on the first weekend in April this year.


He said: "Here in Wales, numbers of people infected with coronavirus continue to go down. If that can be sustained over the weeks to come, then we can see a pathway into the spring in which we will be able to restore freedoms to people that they have had to go without in this second wave.

"But that is a very big if, because there are so many unknowns. There are new variants that are happening in different parts of the world that could make difference here in the United Kingdom.

"But, with vaccination and numbers falling, provided we re-open society carefully and cautiously, and don't allow the virus to get away from us again, we can see path into the spring that we can see ourselves going back to doing some of the things we are all missing so much."
He was then asked what he meant by the spring, and said: "We have got Easter at the beginning of April this year, and it is always an important time for our tourism and hospitality industries.

"We have been talking with them about what might be possible around the Easter period. But it is all very much caveated that the current progress that is being made can continue and it is lifted in a careful and cautious way.

"Easter is amongst the dates we are using in our conversations with businesses and people in Wales."

Drakeford describes pathway to reopening society by the spring

Talks are being held with tourism and hospitality industry leaders

www.walesonline.co.uk

 

[Bertie the bus]

None of these articles ever mention when stay home will be rescinded. Reopening businesses is important but does nobody (government, public health officials, journalists, etc) consider us being allowed out of our houses in any way important?

 

[Peter Mugridge]

None of these articles ever mention when stay home will be rescinded. Reopening businesses is important but does nobody (government, public health officials, journalists, etc) consider us being allowed out of our houses in any way important?

Once they re-open businesses and particularly non-essential shops, then logically* they cannot retain the stay at home message.


*Yes, yes, I know - we're talking about Boris Johnson...

 

[Solent&Wessex]

None of these articles ever mention when stay home will be rescinded. Reopening businesses is important but does nobody (government, public health officials, journalists, etc) consider us being allowed out of our houses in any way important?

The i above is suggesting Easter / early April for staycations so at least then or before according to their timeline.


On a related matter The Guardian carried an interesting article about romance and relationships:

'We are desperate for human contact': people breaking lockdown for sex

For nearly 12 months, single people have been unable to form new relationships. With their chances to start a family or find love slipping away, many are now ignoring the rules

amp.theguardian.com

We are desperate for human contact’: the people breaking lockdown to have sex

For nearly 12 months, single people have been unable to form new relationships. With their chances to start a family or find love slipping away, many are now ignoring the rules

For nearly a year, give or take the odd month, the rules introduced to fight the spread of coronavirus mean that, in England, sex between single people, or established couples who don’t cohabit, has in effect been either illegal, or against regulations, or only allowed outdoors. To give that a sense of scale, 40% of people – rising to 71% among 16- to 29-year-olds – don’t live in a couple.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Once they re-open businesses and particularly non-essential shops, then logically* they cannot retain the stay at home message.


*Yes, yes, I know - we're talking about Boris Johnson...

I appreciate that. I'm not sure the retailers would be too happy if they were told they could open but customers were still told to stay home but I don't see any reason why stay home should last until then. It didn't after the first lockdown, stay home was the first thing to go, and during the second lockdown we weren't even told to stay at home as outdoor leisure was still permitted.

 

[Carlisle]

Once they re-open businesses and particularly non-essential shops, then logically* they cannot retain the stay at home message.

Last June when non essential shops reopened, some TOCs like Northern continued to emphasise only essential travel was permitted for a while after that

 

[brad465]

The i is predicting a fairly rapid reopening from the 8th March onwards....

Boris Johnson's three-stage roadmap out of lockdown that could see pubs open by Easter

Government official says the Prime Minister has also been persuaded to axe the tier system which many experts believe did little to prevent the spread of the virus

inews.co.uk

I also note that Mark Drakeford in Wales has suggested Easter for leisure and tourism etc to reopen in Wales.

Drakeford describes pathway to reopening society by the spring

Talks are being held with tourism and hospitality industry leaders

www.walesonline.co.uk

The i above is suggesting Easter / early April for staycations so at least then or before according to their timeline.


On a related matter The Guardian carried an interesting article about romance and relationships:

'We are desperate for human contact': people breaking lockdown for sex

For nearly 12 months, single people have been unable to form new relationships. With their chances to start a family or find love slipping away, many are now ignoring the rules

amp.theguardian.com

That rapid opening would be great if it happens, and I suspect the stay home message will be gone as well if they are because otherwise reopening them is meaningless. Whether this is the actual rate of reopening remains to be seen, and I'm almost certain the speed will be criticised by locktivists in SAGE and the public alike.

However, a reason why things might reopen like that is because of the magic 23rd March lockdown anniversary's potential influence in the public mind: they'll want things to appear better than a year earlier, and while this report doesn't say non-essential shops and hospitality would reopen by the 23rd March, their reopening under this hypothesis would be imminent.

The Sun's front page also speculates a pub return by April, while the Mirror and Express are more pessimistic and talk about rule of 6 returning in May:

 

[DB]

Last June when non essential shops reopened, some TOCs like Northern continued to emphasise only essential travel was permitted for a while after that

That wasn't the law though, just jobsworth behaviour by some TOCs

 

[yorkie]

Last June when non essential shops reopened, some TOCs like Northern continued to emphasise only essential travel was permitted for a while after that

To be clear, there is no concept of "essential" travel other than as an abstract concept in the guidance.

What matters is whether or not you are complying with the law.

TfW responded to an FOI request where they admitted there was no restriction whatseover and it was merely "advice"; for the full FOI response see:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ys-allowed-or-not.206316/page-19#post-4736862

 

[bramling]

Money & lack of social inclusion are often the primary triggers for crime / unrest.

I suspect even the furloughs are getting restless now. I suspect that many the more “middle-class” furlough types may well be getting their 80%/2500k topped up by their employers, but for those who aren’t (which I’d imagine is now most) this must be starting to bite.

The i above is suggesting Easter / early April for staycations so at least then or before according to their timeline.


On a related matter The Guardian carried an interesting article about romance and relationships:

'We are desperate for human contact': people breaking lockdown for sex

For nearly 12 months, single people have been unable to form new relationships. With their chances to start a family or find love slipping away, many are now ignoring the rules

amp.theguardian.com

Interesting point about single people. Another thing to add to the list, people stuck in their homes, youngsters not being educated, jobs being lost, businesses failing, debt mounting up, et cetera.

 

[joncombe]

I suspect even the furloughs are getting restless now. I suspect that many the more “middle-class” furlough types may well be getting their 80%/2500k topped up by their employers, but for those who aren’t (which I’d imagine is now most) this must be starting to bite.

Not necessarily. I imagine a fair few would have a long commute and hence would normally be spending 20% of their salary on commuting or other costs associated, such as perhaps lunch or takeaway coffee

 

[yorksrob]

None of these articles ever mention when stay home will be rescinded. Reopening businesses is important but does nobody (government, public health officials, journalists, etc) consider us being allowed out of our houses in any way important?

I agree, "stay at home" should be the first to go, before even schools reopen.

That said, the policy barely has any credibility as it is, and will just be ignored anyway if it is still in place when other things are reopening.

 

[Bantamzen]

What would that contingency plan be if we did see a massive expansion in case numbers and hospitalisations despite vaccinations? How do you prevent people needing healthcare in the first place - especially if you've opened up society?

To put it bluntly, it seems to me that although you are in principle in favour of relaxing restrictions, you are wanting some kind of long term analysis before even considering such a move. And you are not alone, SAGE for example seem to be in a similar position. However reality is a bitch. There are literally millions of people out there either furloughed, or working shorter hours who cannot wait that long. There are entire industries literally on the brink of collapse that cannot wait for months or years for the bean counters to give the thumbs up. If these are allowed to collapse, then our already seriously weakened economy will be damaged much further, and much needed taxation will not start to flow again, meaning that the Chancellor will have little option to to cut services, and ultimately these could also include the NHS. In fact it could get worse, remember the spectre of selling parts of the NHS off to Trump? Well just because he's hiding as the ex-President in Mar-a-Lago doesn't mean that the US health industry has forgotten about it. A serious economic collapse in this country might just be the trigger they are waiting for to make a move.

The time for fart-arsing about with data is over. Real people need to get their real lives on the go again. The middle class experts, safe in their middle class homes with their comfortable wages are going to have to be politely asked to leave the meeting before they destroy the lives of many working class patients. As for the risks to the NHS, well newsflash, thanks to underfunding from successive governments the NHS as stumbled from crisis to crisis for decades. Covid isn't the first one, nor will it be the last. So perhaps those experts could turn their attention to thinking about how to build up the NHS and build in contingency. Indeed the experts have had a year to come up with such a plan, yet nothing seems to have been done in that direction. Why? Well its simple really. Its far easier to shove the blame for the crisis elsewhere than accept its something you have to deal with. And that is all that restrictions are now needed for, blame shifting.

Its time to end. End of.

I suspect even the furloughs are getting restless now. I suspect that many the more “middle-class” furlough types may well be getting their 80%/2500k topped up by their employers, but for those who aren’t (which I’d imagine is now most) this must be starting to bite.


Interesting point about single people. Another thing to add to the list, people stuck in their homes, youngsters not being educated, jobs being lost, businesses failing, debt mounting up, et cetera.

There was a report last year that personal debt had shot through the roof, I'll see if I can dig it out. Now of course many financial companies have been offering credit holidays, but that doesn't mean that they have forgotten about the debt. When the demands start landing on people's doormats, along with the much higher energy bills thanks to working from home, a lot more people will sit up and take notice.

 

[VauxhallandI]

To put it bluntly, it seems to me that although you are in principle in favour of relaxing restrictions, you are wanting some kind of long term analysis before even considering such a move. And you are not alone, SAGE for example seem to be in a similar position. However reality is a bitch. There are literally millions of people out there either furloughed, or working shorter hours who cannot wait that long. There are entire industries literally on the brink of collapse that cannot wait for months or years for the bean counters to give the thumbs up. If these are allowed to collapse, then our already seriously weakened economy will be damaged much further, and much needed taxation will not start to flow again, meaning that the Chancellor will have little option to to cut services, and ultimately these could also include the NHS. In fact it could get worse, remember the spectre of selling parts of the NHS off to Trump? Well just because he's hiding as the ex-President in Mar-a-Lago doesn't mean that the US health industry has forgotten about it. A serious economic collapse in this country might just be the trigger they are waiting for to make a move.

The time for fart-arsing about with data is over. Real people need to get their real lives on the go again. The middle class experts, safe in their middle class homes with their comfortable wages are going to have to be politely asked to leave the meeting before they destroy the lives of many working class patients. As for the risks to the NHS, well newsflash, thanks to underfunding from successive governments the NHS as stumbled from crisis to crisis for decades. Covid isn't the first one, nor will it be the last. So perhaps those experts could turn their attention to thinking about how to build up the NHS and build in contingency. Indeed the experts have had a year to come up with such a plan, yet nothing seems to have been done in that direction. Why? Well its simple really. Its far easier to shove the blame for the crisis elsewhere than accept its something you have to deal with. And that is all that restrictions are now needed for, blame shifting.

Its time to end. End of.


There was a report last year that personal debt had shot through the roof, I'll see if I can dig it out. Now of course many financial companies have been offering credit holidays, but that doesn't mean that they have forgotten about the debt. When the demands start landing on people's doormats, along with the much higher energy bills thanks to working from home, a lot more people will sit up and take notice.

Excellent post. Time for the flip and we shall see how strong the signalling is from the lockdowners when they look outside the window to see reality in action.

 

[duncanp]

This article from The Covid Bedwetter Daily Mail smacks of desperation by the pro lockdown brigade.

The idea that we should keep the current lockdown for at least another two months and not reopen schools on March 8th is just ludicrous.

People's mental health, the economy, and the welfare of school pupils, cannot wait that long.

Whilst the NHS may be under pressure, the numbers in hospital are definitely falling, and more importantly are projected to fall significantly in the coming weeks.

And it is misrepresenting the truth to say that "..hopes that families will be reunited at Easter have suffered a major blow as government scientists demanded a cautious route out of lockdown.."

This implies that a decision not to ease the lockdown at Easter has already been taken, which is complete and utter codswallop.

It also says "...government scientists demanded a cautious route out of lockdown" when it really means "..some pro lockdown government scientists demanded a cautious route out of lockdown.."

Personally I think that schools will reopen on March 8th, shops and leisure centres around Easter, and pubs towards the end of April/ beginning of May. There may be some restrictions on these places as they reopen, but I would expect that all restrictions are removed by the summer, when levels of vaccination are such that we have reached herd immunity.

Scientists urge Boris to keep brakes on for two more months

Hopes that families will be reunited at Easter suffered a blow last night after advisers urged the Prime Minister to keep the brakes on for at least another two months and demanded a cautious route.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Hopes that families will be reunited at Easter have suffered a major blow as government scientists demanded a cautious route out of lockdown.

Advisers are urging the Prime Minister to keep the brakes on for at least another two months and some NHS bosses have even cautioned against reopening schools on March 8.

Boris Johnson is determined for pupils to go back to classrooms on this date but it could be several weeks before other restrictions begin to be lifted.

It means Easter holiday plans may still be ruined, with a government source yesterday warning it was 'too early' to think about holidays, which will not be possible until infection numbers are at much lower levels.

The chair of the NHS Confederation Lord Adebowale said this morning the health service was 'on its knees' and urged ministers to adopt extreme caution in any easing of restrictions.

But in a boost for lockdown-weary Britons, pubs and restaurants are believed to get the green light to start serving outdoors.

On the current rate of reduction in Covid cases, official scientific advisers think it is likely to take until the start of May for numbers to come down low enough to consider easing restrictions.

Government scientists are sticking to the mantra 'the lower the better' and are likely to push for infections to be at similar levels to June and July last year, when the first lockdown was lifted.

They also believe current travel restrictions reduce the chance of new Covid mutations – such as those found recently in Bristol and Liverpool – being spread around the country.

Officials warned last night that hopes of families being reunited with relatives in different parts of the country at Easter hang in the balance.

Whitehall sources said ministers are waiting for more data showing the vaccine's effect on transmission of the virus before deciding if UK-based getaways will be allowed.

Downing Street has said the PM will set out his roadmap to lifting lockdown on the week of February 22.

The gradual relaxation is expected to begin with the reopening of schools, which has been earmarked for March 8.

But today senior NHS figure Lord Adebowale urged ministers to revise this data for fear of it driving another spike in infections.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: 'We have to be really careful, really systematic about easing any lockdown. What we cannot afford is another peak.

'I understand the pressure to open schools. We need to do so very safely. I think mid or late-March is when we should be re-assessing.

'We have had a number of false dawns when we have set dates, taken the action, then find ourselves having to row back very quickly.'

Yet the PM is being pulled the other way by his backbenches and this morning former cabinet minister David Davis made the case for reopening schools.

He said: 'There's been a lot of discussion in the last few days about the approach to schooling and I think we're going to have to relax the schools.

'That's the first thing to do, it's probably the lowest risk as children are less likely to have serious effects if they do catch it, there's an indication young children catch it and transmit less easily.'

Mr Johnson's roadmap could also see outdoor exercise rules eased at around the same time as schools.

The plans will then lay out a timetable for wider reopening, with shops likely to be first, followed by gyms and hairdressers and, finally, pubs and restaurants.

Ministers are expected to wait at least a couple of weeks between each step so they can assess the impact of lifting each measure.

But in a boost for the food and drink industry, restaurants and pubs will be back serving people outdoors in April if cases continue to fall.

And plans have been drawn up to save the summer sporting season with the Government 'pushing hard' to get stadiums and venues Covid safe before June, The Telegraph reports.

Officials are said to be devising new plans to make sure Wimbledon and the Euros go ahead this year such as home tests for fans in advance of sporting events, asymptomatic testing sites and rapid on-site testing and temperature checks.

A Whitehall source last night: 'This has to be done quite carefully because we want this to be the final lockdown. The last thing we want is to go into further restrictions.'

But Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Conservative MP for the Cotswolds, said: 'It is just as dangerous for the nation to be too cautious in unlocking.

'A sufficient proportion of the population will have been vaccinated by April.

'There is no reason why the vast bulk of the economy – shops, pubs, restaurant – shouldn't be allowed to begin to open then.'

He added that holidays in the UK should be allowed before Easter 'or if not, immediately after'.

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford said he hoped it might be possible to allow holidays in Wales.

At a press conference in Cardiff, he suggested self-catered accommodation may reopen if infection rates continue to decline.

'I'm trying to give an indication that if everything continues to improve, we will do what we can to respond to [the tourism industry's] wish to be able to resume trading over the Easter period,' he said.

A pincer movement of the vaccine and current lockdown measures is hoped to curtain infection rates and chart a path back to normality.

He added that he hoped minsters could allowing more freedom in April or May, but ultimately the UK would have to learn to live with an acceptable amount of deaths in the long-term.

He said: 'If it's the same level as flu, we don't think for a second of locking down the country over flu. There will come a point when there will be a death rate from Covid but at a normal level and we have to cope with that. Obviously we still try and prevent it but we accept it, I think. We have to.'

But Mr Davis warned ministers they must not continue the stop-start cycle of lockdowns, and that any relaxation must be permanent.

He said: 'The thing that worries me most is what I don't want to see is yet more stop-start, relaxing it and going back again.

'If I were running a small company and the government said they were going to relax some measures that affect you, I wouldn't necessarily rush back unless I knew it was permanent... It's an argument for that well known scientific technique "suck it and see".'

l

 

[DustyBin]

To put it bluntly, it seems to me that although you are in principle in favour of relaxing restrictions, you are wanting some kind of long term analysis before even considering such a move. And you are not alone, SAGE for example seem to be in a similar position. However reality is a bitch. There are literally millions of people out there either furloughed, or working shorter hours who cannot wait that long. There are entire industries literally on the brink of collapse that cannot wait for months or years for the bean counters to give the thumbs up. If these are allowed to collapse, then our already seriously weakened economy will be damaged much further, and much needed taxation will not start to flow again, meaning that the Chancellor will have little option to to cut services, and ultimately these could also include the NHS. In fact it could get worse, remember the spectre of selling parts of the NHS off to Trump? Well just because he's hiding as the ex-President in Mar-a-Lago doesn't mean that the US health industry has forgotten about it. A serious economic collapse in this country might just be the trigger they are waiting for to make a move.

The time for fart-arsing about with data is over. Real people need to get their real lives on the go again. The middle class experts, safe in their middle class homes with their comfortable wages are going to have to be politely asked to leave the meeting before they destroy the lives of many working class patients. As for the risks to the NHS, well newsflash, thanks to underfunding from successive governments the NHS as stumbled from crisis to crisis for decades. Covid isn't the first one, nor will it be the last. So perhaps those experts could turn their attention to thinking about how to build up the NHS and build in contingency. Indeed the experts have had a year to come up with such a plan, yet nothing seems to have been done in that direction. Why? Well its simple really. Its far easier to shove the blame for the crisis elsewhere than accept its something you have to deal with. And that is all that restrictions are now needed for, blame shifting.

Its time to end. End of.


There was a report last year that personal debt had shot through the roof, I'll see if I can dig it out. Now of course many financial companies have been offering credit holidays, but that doesn't mean that they have forgotten about the debt. When the demands start landing on people's doormats, along with the much higher energy bills thanks to working from home, a lot more people will sit up and take notice.

This is a really good post. We must not sleepwalk into a repeat of 2020, that would be catastrophic. It’s time to return to normality.

 

[Eyersey468]

This is a really good post. We must not sleepwalk into a repeat of 2020, that would be catastrophic. It’s time to return to normality.

This article from The Covid Bedwetter Daily Mail smacks of desperation by the pro lockdown brigade.

The idea that we should keep the current lockdown for at least another two months and not reopen schools on March 8th is just ludicrous.

People's mental health, the economy, and the welfare of school pupils, cannot wait that long.

Whilst the NHS may be under pressure, the numbers in hospital are definitely falling, and more importantly are projected to fall significantly in the coming weeks.

And it is misrepresenting the truth to say that "..hopes that families will be reunited at Easter have suffered a major blow as government scientists demanded a cautious route out of lockdown.."

This implies that a decision not to ease the lockdown at Easter has already been taken, which is complete and utter codswallop.

It also says "...government scientists demanded a cautious route out of lockdown" when it really means "..some pro lockdown government scientists demanded a cautious route out of lockdown.."

Personally I think that schools will reopen on March 8th, shops and leisure centres around Easter, and pubs towards the end of April/ beginning of May. There may be some restrictions on these places as they reopen, but I would expect that all restrictions are removed by the summer, when levels of vaccination are such that we have reached herd immunity.

Scientists urge Boris to keep brakes on for two more months

Hopes that families will be reunited at Easter suffered a blow last night after advisers urged the Prime Minister to keep the brakes on for at least another two months and demanded a cautious route.

www.dailymail.co.uk

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I agree, much more of this and there will be nothing left.

 

[6862]

Just caught up with Hancock's latest shifting of the goalposts, now saying we should be able to live with Covid like flu by the end of the year. So just to recap, we've gone from 3 weeks to flatten the curve, to 12 weeks to see the virus packing, to significant normality by November, to things should be better by Easter (suggesting we see family then rather than Christmas), now living with it by the end of the year. Presumably some time late this year we'll find out where the goalposts will be moved to next.

 

[initiation]

Just caught up with Hancock's latest shifting of the goalposts, now saying we should be able to live with Covid like flu by the end of the year. So just to recap, we've gone from 3 weeks to flatten the curve, to 12 weeks to see the virus packing, to significant normality by November, to things should be better by Easter (suggesting we see family then rather than Christmas), now living with it by the end of the year. Presumably some time late this year we'll find out where the goalposts will be moved to next.

I've said it before but if we get to the end of August with restrictions still in place, they will be going nowhere. 'Scientists' will be 'concerned' about the return to school/University in September, then winter just around the corner etc...

 

[6862]

I've said it before but if we get to the end of August with restrictions still in place, they will be going nowhere. 'Scientists' will be 'concerned' about the return to school/University in September, then winter just around the corner etc...

Let's face it, we can already tell they're not going anywhere - we don't have to wait until August to see it. We will never again have freedom like we had before March 2020, unless we can pluck up the courage to break the law (for example to see family and friends).

 

[brad465]

Let's face it, we can already tell they're not going anywhere - we don't have to wait until August to see it. We will never again have freedom like we had before March 2020, unless we can pluck up the courage to break the law (for example to see family and friends).

Either that, and/or Hancock and co. get so fatigued from the whole crisis so far that they cannot continue in their roles, they've already been showing signs of it in the last few months. They are also running out of slogans and calls for compliance through desperation.

 

[6862]

Either that, and/or Hancock and co. get so fatigued from the whole crisis so far that they cannot continue in their roles, they've already been showing signs of it in the last few months. They are also running out of slogans and calls for compliance through desperation.

The problem with hoping that this will happen is that the real masterminds behind the whole thing (Whitty and Valance) don't appear anywhere near as fatigued by it as the politicians do. They'll stay even if the government changes, and will continue to pull the strings.

 

[Bantamzen]

The problem with hoping that this will happen is that the real masterminds behind the whole thing (Whitty and Valance) don't appear anywhere near as fatigued by it as the politicians do. They'll stay even if the government changes, and will continue to pull the strings.

Trust me, they won't for long. SAGE can hide behind their podiums all they like, when people's money starts to run out they will turn & Whitty & Co had better start finding better places to hide.