New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Tezza1978]

I absolutely believe that there is a contingent within the scientific community, including SAGE, who would like to exercise increased control over our everyday lives because they know best (or so they believe). There are others, the likes of Michie, who I strongly suspect of trying to use the pandemic to further a political agenda. There are quite clearly politicians attempting the same. I really don't think this is tinfoil hattery; it would be incredibly naive to think that there aren't people out there who see this as an opportunity.

Do I think there's a grand plan or script being folllowed? No. Do I think there are those attempting to slip in a few permanent changes to the way we live on the back of this pandemic? Absolutely.

Couldn't have put it better myself. Susan Michie has an agenda - its blatant. Some of the noises /rumours we heard about restricting alcohol sales earlier in the pandemic are clearly being raised by more puritanical members of SAGE who would happily see parts of the hospitality industry thrown under a bus to further their aims to reduce and restrict alcohol consumption.

 

[Kite159]

Couldn't have put it better myself. Susan Michie has an agenda - its blatant. Some of the noises /rumours we heard about restricting alcohol sales earlier in the pandemic are clearly being raised by more puritanical members of SAGE who would happily see parts of the hospitality industry thrown under a bus to further their aims to reduce and restrict alcohol consumption.

Unless they also ban/limit the sale of alcohol in supermarkets, people will just drink more at home

 

[35B]

Couldn't have put it better myself. Susan Michie has an agenda - its blatant. Some of the noises /rumours we heard about restricting alcohol sales earlier in the pandemic are clearly being raised by more puritanical members of SAGE who would happily see parts of the hospitality industry thrown under a bus to further their aims to reduce and restrict alcohol consumption.

Which is where concern over mixed agendas is reasonable - achieving one unpopular policy aim under the guise of another undermines the objectives of both.

 

[kristiang85]

Unless they also ban/limit the sale of alcohol in supermarkets, people will just drink more at home

Then if they do that, then people will just brew their own at home. And more people will suffer adverse effects of unregulated alcohol, as well as the potential for black markets and the associated crime.

The laws of unintended consequences loom large over anybody who tries to regulate a population too much...

 

[DB]

Then if they do that, then people will just brew their own at home. And more people will suffer adverse effects of unregulated alcohol, as well as the potential for black markets and the associated crime.

The laws of unintended consequences loom large over anybody who tries to regulate a population too much...

The US era of prohibition shows exactly what happens - and now, with the internet and mobile phones, it would be that much easier for those making it to distribute it.

 

[DustyBin]

Unless they also ban/limit the sale of alcohol in supermarkets, people will just drink more at home

True, but as we've seen already the restrictions tend to 'creep'. As I keep saying, we need to look back to this time last year and remind ourselves what normality is. Don't lose sight of it - tiers 3, 2 or even 1 are not normal and are not acceptable.

 

[Cdd89]

Are Sweden and Florida holding music festivals and other large scale events where 20k plus people attend with no social distancing or anti covid measures?
I've not seen any examples of them doing so

I’m not aware of music festivals but many bars and restaurants in Florida are back up to 100% capacity for indoor dining. Theatres are open and running at about 50% capacity and some shows involve the audience singing in an indoor environment. You also have to pay for a Covid test if you are not otherwise insured so people are going around with Covid symptoms. Mask use in stores is by business policy and in many stores is not mandatory, anti-Covid measures like social distancing are hit and miss and not widely respected even where in place. There are no restrictions on meeting friends so groups of 7-8 in all contexts are a common sight. You don’t need a Covid test to fly or travel domestically. There is no quarantine on arrival.

I’m not defending all of these, a few of them make me uncomfortable, but the onus is very much on those who advocate for lockdowns to explain why Florida, despite the above, has followed similar curves to other places with similar environments.

 

[Eyersey468]

We need to agree to disagree on whether lockdown measures are or are not necessary; the scale of impact over the last couple of months due to the failure to check the spread of Covid in good time clearly demonstrates to me that they have an important place in public health policy. When even a libertarian writer from the IEA like Christopher Snowdon writes in support of the current lockdown (see "Do Lockdowns work" for his core argument, which I won't try to reduce here), I tend to think the case in principle against is pretty darn weak.

I want vaccination to work, I want to be back to leading a normal life doing things as I naturally would - and did before March last year. I believe we're most likely to get that quickly and sustainably if the unwinding of current measures is done carefully following the dictum "measure twice, cut once". This isn't about mitigating the risk that government will "choose to impose another lockdown", but as a way of getting to a society that has Covid transmission and illness at a level that is, if not at full herd immunity, a level that society at large can live with in the long run.

If the government get that wrong, and we see a repeat of circumstances with rapid growth in case numbers, hospitalisations, and deaths, then experience shows that they will use the hammer of lockdown measures as a containment strategy. My judgment is that the damage that will cause - economically, psychologically, medically - is far greater than the damage that will be caused by a more cautious relaxation of current measures.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Feb 2021 ==


So what's the basis of their expertise then?

I don't fundamentally disagree with this, BUT....

We have to have targets and goals for that to work. At the moment we don't. The targets and goals are wishy washy and seem to change from week to week. I'm not meaning dates I mean specific and identifiable and measurable and importantly realistic targets for levels of infection, for example. 'When X happens then we can do Y' for example.

And we certainly don't need a load of 'just in case' scenarios. Lots of what the experts are currently calling for are 'just in case' scenarios - i.e. 'we need to keep measures and partial lockdown just in case of new variants'. There will always be new variants of one sort or another so that policy is flawed as ultimately lockdown and restrictions will never end if that is the goal.

I agree with both of you

 

[GrahamD83]

I don't normally post here but jus want to get this off my chest. I had always found the discussions here reassuring but lately it's mostly predictions of doom and gloom.

The news coming through today might be disheartening but its pure speculation and does mean it will be true. As the past year has shown its impossible to predict what measures will be needed next month never mind in autumn. I'm confident the rules will be relaxed as the vaccine rollout increases. Not all speculation is true. Remember last April when they said a vaccine would take 12-18 months and may not even be possible? An 10 months later we have three vaccines approved and 20% of the population vaccinated.

Johnson stated in this week's press conference that he wants to relax the measures as much as we all want him too. In 10 days he will publish his roadmap and we will know more then. But we're in for a tough week of media speculation until then.

 

[DustyBin]

I don't normally post here but jus want to get this off my chest. I had always found the discussions here reassuring but lately it's mostly predictions of doom and gloom.

The news coming through today might be disheartening but its pure speculation and does mean it will be true. As the past year has shown its impossible to predict what measures will be needed next month never mind in autumn. I'm confident the rules will be relaxed as the vaccine rollout increases. Not all speculation is true. Remember last April when they said a vaccine would take 12-18 months and may not even be possible? An 10 months later we have three vaccines approved and 20% of the population vaccinated.

Johnson stated in this week's press conference that he wants to relax the measures as much as we all want him too. In 10 days he will publish his roadmap and we will know more then. But we're in for a tough week of media speculation until then.

I think there's a bit of frustration boiling over more than anything. We appear to be in a good place with the vaccines as you say and yet there are 'experts' saying we need to needlessly maintain restrictions for the forseeable future. That's what is getting to people (along with the usual media drivel). I'm counting down the days until the 22nd, we just need to know what the plan is (and that there is one!).

 

[STINT47]

I think people are getting more frustrated as cases go down and vaccines go up. I'm increasingly starting to feel that the sacrifices required for lockdown and the consequences of it are to great now.

As an example of this the police are complaining that they cannot stop people sledging as too many people are out and they are outnumbered. It demonstartes that the desire to be out and to live life is there and a time is coming when people will decide that lockdown is over regardless of SAGE and the politicians.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56037505?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=60269e30a18b7802e53a26ca%26Police%20frustrated%20after%20being%20%27outnumbered%27%20by%20sledgers%262021-02-12T16%3A45%3A02.076Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:52db32c9-2452-4e15-bde9-315df2f09de2&pinned_post_asset_id=60269e30a18b7802e53a26ca&pinned_post_type=share

Police were left "outnumbered" and "hugely frustrated" when hundreds of people gathered to sledge in snow.

Large crowds congregated to frolic on Newcastle's Town Moor and Flatts Lane Country Park in Middlesbrough on Wednesday and Thursday.

Covid regulations allow police to issue fines for organised gatherings but the rules do not apply for crowds consisting of individual households.

Cleveland Police Insp Tony Cross said the force was "going to have to start taking names and addresses and issuing fines" if people did not engage with officers, while Northumbria Police said officers would "engage with the public where it is proportionate to do so".

 

[packermac]

I think people are getting more frustrated as cases go down and vaccines go up. I'm increasingly starting to feel that the sacrifices required for lockdown and the consequences of it are to great now.

As an example of this the police are complaining that they cannot stop people sledging as too many people are out and they are outnumbered. It demonstartes that the desire to be out and to live life is there and a time is coming when people will decide that lockdown is over regardless of SAGE and the politicians.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56037505?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=60269e30a18b7802e53a26ca%26Police%20frustrated%20after%20being%20%27outnumbered%27%20by%20sledgers%262021-02-12T16%3A45%3A02.076Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:52db32c9-2452-4e15-bde9-315df2f09de2&pinned_post_asset_id=60269e30a18b7802e53a26ca&pinned_post_type=share

Then I guess those of you that feel you should be able to go anywhere any time will be unimpressed with this. However based on local surveys the residents will not.

'Stay away from Dorset' in half term, police chief warns

Families could be fined hundred of pounds if they visit Dorset during half term, police say.

www.bbc.co.uk

"If people are found to have travelled unnecessarily and in blatant breach of the rules, they could be handed a £200 fine and turned around," he said.

 

[brad465]

Then I guess those of you that feel you should be able to go anywhere any time will be unimpressed with this. However based on local surveys the residents will not.

'Stay away from Dorset' in half term, police chief warns

Families could be fined hundred of pounds if they visit Dorset during half term, police say.

www.bbc.co.uk

I know people have been deprived of such attractions for many months, but I would hardly call February weather, even without snow, the sort of weather to drive halfway across the country to visit Durdle Door or other Dorset landmarks/beaches. The infamous scenes in May took place when temperatures were at least 20C.

 

[Кряква]

Does anyone know how these fines work in practice if one simply takes the FPN and continues what they are doing?

The articles say stuff like "turned around", but in practice how does that occur? Are you just offered another fine, and another fine, and another fine, or will you actually be taken into custody and if so, what's the process?

I genuinely can't really picture how the exchange would go down - so I'm walking about or sitting on a bench or similar, police approach and ask what I'm doing, and I say something like "hello officer" and stand there politely, what happens next?

 

[DorkingMain]

I don't fundamentally disagree with this, BUT....

We have to have targets and goals for that to work. At the moment we don't. The targets and goals are wishy washy and seem to change from week to week. I'm not meaning dates I mean specific and identifiable and measurable and importantly realistic targets for levels of infection, for example. 'When X happens then we can do Y' for example.

And we certainly don't need a load of 'just in case' scenarios. Lots of what the experts are currently calling for are 'just in case' scenarios - i.e. 'we need to keep measures and partial lockdown just in case of new variants'. There will always be new variants of one sort or another so that policy is flawed as ultimately lockdown and restrictions will never end if that is the goal.

The fundamental flaw about the just in case scenarios is that no other aspect of society has ever worked on that basis.

Every single thing is assessed on the basis of there being an acceptable threshold of risk, and an acceptable balance with regards to the number of people at risk of being killed, or being killed vs a loss of liberty / freedom / economy. Road deaths, for example - we could make the speed limit 5mph everywhere and enforce it with £10,000 fines or 10 years in jail. That would also cripple society and the economy, in the name of "zero road deaths".

Never-ending zero COVID restrictions are exactly the same. There's an acceptable level of prevalence for any infectious and deadly disease (we don't have a "zero TB" society for example) - eliminating it is near enough impossible without completely shutting down human interaction and never starting it again. Politicians and policymakers HAVE to be able to make a judgement about where that acceptable threshold is. As is mentioned further back in this thread, scientists are solely obsessed with a particular objective in eliminating infectious disease. They are not there to make judgements about collateral damage.

 

[35B]

The fundamental flaw about the just in case scenarios is that no other aspect of society has ever worked on that basis.

Every single thing is assessed on the basis of there being an acceptable threshold of risk, and an acceptable balance with regards to the number of people at risk of being killed, or being killed vs a loss of liberty / freedom / economy. Road deaths, for example - we could make the speed limit 5mph everywhere and enforce it with £10,000 fines or 10 years in jail. That would also cripple society and the economy, in the name of "zero road deaths".

Never-ending zero COVID restrictions are exactly the same. There's an acceptable level of prevalence for any infectious and deadly disease (we don't have a "zero TB" society for example) - eliminating it is near enough impossible without completely shutting down human interaction and never starting it again. Politicians and policymakers HAVE to be able to make a judgement about where that acceptable threshold is. As is mentioned further back in this thread, scientists are solely obsessed with a particular objective in eliminating infectious disease. They are not there to make judgements about collateral damage.

I completely agree. But those who just assert that the regulations need to go now need to recognise that they are the flip side of that coin, and focusing on one measure to the exclusion of all others.

 

[MikeWM]

Does anyone know how these fines work in practice if one simply takes the FPN and continues what they are doing?

The articles say stuff like "turned around", but in practice how does that occur? Are you just offered another fine, and another fine, and another fine, or will you actually be taken into custody and if so, under what powers?

The various lockdown/mask regulations purport to extend the scope of circumstances for which you may be arrested - as listed in the PACE act - to include 'protecting public health'.

I'm not sure if anyone has yet challenged this, but my understanding is that this is something that probably can't actually be done by such regulations (regulations cannot amend law unless the law specifically allows for it). That doesn't mean you wouldn't be arrested anyway of course, the police aren't going to care about such niceties.

 

[Class 33]

This segment of this article from The Sun is of grave grave concern to me.

Key dates Covid lockdown rules may ease 10 days from Boris Johnson announcement

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will set out his lockdown exit strategy for England in 10 days and the easing of restrictions could begin with the reopening of schools in March

www.mirror.co.uk

Face masks and social distancing​

Rules around social distancing and face masks could remain in place through the rest of the year and or possibly into 2022.

A Whitehall source told the Times this week that social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn.

The source said: "The thinking is that social distancing will need to be in place for a long time to come.

"It has repercussions for the scale of any reopening. Restaurants, pubs and offices will all need to be Covid-secure."


Scientists want measures such as social distancing and face masks to continue for many more months.

Sage adviser Professor John Edmunds said the rule of six - used in the previous tier system - and other measures could be necessary through the rest of 2021.

It quotes that not just these so called professors are saying social distancing and face mask wearing could remain in place for the rest of the year and possibly into 2022, it quotes that a Whitehall source is saying "that social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn." So going by that, it seems the government have already made their mind up that this damaging social distancing will have to continue until at least the autumn??!! If this ends up happening, this years festivals and events industry will be very unfairly wiped out yet again for the second year in a row. Along with many thousands of businesses in the hospitality industry unable to survive and going under! Along with all the other damaging effects this will have on the nation's mental health. This really should not be allowed to happen!

Hospital numbers and deaths are continuing to fall and fall week on week! Within just a couple of months time they will all be very very low! There will be no absolutely no need whatsoever for this social distancing and face mask wearing to continue any longer! The government needs to start getting this country back to normal again. Social distancing and face mask wearing requirements for many months to come yet is not normal, and will be completely unacceptable.

Regarding a Whitehall source saying social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn. Well on the flip side of that I remember reading an article from last September which stated a Whitehall source said "There definitely won't be a second national lockdown. The government and the country will just not be able to afford it."(or similar words to that effect). And then look what happened, there was a second(and a third!) national lockdown! So taking that into account, maybe we shouldn't take what this particular "Whitehall source" has said in this article today as being absolutely definite what will happen.

 

[NorthOxonian]

This segment of this article from The Sun is of grave grave concern to me.

Key dates Covid lockdown rules may ease 10 days from Boris Johnson announcement

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will set out his lockdown exit strategy for England in 10 days and the easing of restrictions could begin with the reopening of schools in March

www.mirror.co.uk

It quotes that not just these so called professors are saying social distancing and face mask wearing could remain in place for the rest of the year and possibly into 2022, it quotes that a Whitehall source is saying "that social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn." So going by that, it seems the government have already made their mind up that this damaging social distancing will have to continue until at least the autumn??!! If this ends up happening, this years festivals and events industry will be very unfairly wiped out yet again for the second year in a row. Along with many thousands of businesses in the hospitality industry unable to survive and going under! Along with all the other damaging effects this will have on the nation's mental health. This really should not be allowed to happen!

Hospital numbers and deaths are continuing to fall and fall week on week! Within just a couple of months time they will all be very very low! There will be no absolutely no need whatsoever for this social distancing and face mask wearing to continue any longer! The government needs to start getting this country back to normal again. Social distancing and face mask wearing requirements for many months to come yet is not normal, and will be completely unacceptable.

Regarding a Whitehall source saying social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn. Well on the flip side of that I remember reading an article from last September which stated a Whitehall source said "There definitely won't be a second national lockdown. The government and the country will just not be able to afford it."(or similar words to that effect). And then look what happened, there was a second(and a third!) national lockdown! So taking that into account, maybe we shouldn't take what this particular "Whitehall source" has said in this article today as being absolutely definite what will happen.

I do wonder if they're leaking this stuff to try and gauge the reaction of the public, and then that'll inform their decisions. It's deeply unpleasant and has the potential to tip people over the edge, but it's the sort of thing I'd expect this government to do.

 

[Кряква]

These are stricter restrictions than we had last year without vaccines.

They're stricter restrictions than many countries have _right now_.

I can't take this article seriously at all. Fails the 'man on the clapham omnibus" test completely. They're in a different world.

 

[yorkie]

This segment of this article from The Sun is of grave grave concern to me.

Key dates Covid lockdown rules may ease 10 days from Boris Johnson announcement

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will set out his lockdown exit strategy for England in 10 days and the easing of restrictions could begin with the reopening of schools in March

www.mirror.co.uk

It quotes that not just these so called professors are saying social distancing and face mask wearing could remain in place for the rest of the year and possibly into 2022, it quotes that a Whitehall source is saying "that social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn." So going by that, it seems the government have already made their mind up that this damaging social distancing will have to continue until at least the autumn??!! If this ends up happening, this years festivals and events industry will be very unfairly wiped out yet again for the second year in a row. Along with many thousands of businesses in the hospitality industry unable to survive and going under! Along with all the other damaging effects this will have on the nation's mental health. This really should not be allowed to happen!

Hospital numbers and deaths are continuing to fall and fall week on week! Within just a couple of months time they will all be very very low! There will be no absolutely no need whatsoever for this social distancing and face mask wearing to continue any longer! The government needs to start getting this country back to normal again. Social distancing and face mask wearing requirements for many months to come yet is not normal, and will be completely unacceptable.

Regarding a Whitehall source saying social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn. Well on the flip side of that I remember reading an article from last September which stated a Whitehall source said "There definitely won't be a second national lockdown. The government and the country will just not be able to afford it."(or similar words to that effect). And then look what happened, there was a second(and a third!) national lockdown! So taking that into account, maybe we shouldn't take what this particular "Whitehall source" has said in this article today as being absolutely definite what will happen.

Yes, we discussed this a few posts back, and I posted my views on the barmy John Edmunds:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...by-johnson-4-1-21.212853/page-80#post-4992793

I think a lot of it is down to well paid people in secure jobs, generally in well proportioned homes, looking at a very specific part of the jigsaw and not seeing the bigger picture.

Some people can be incredibly intelligent and skilled when dealing with their particular area of expertise but they may be very lacking when it comes to other aspects such as empathy, economic considerations, judging the public mood, looking at the bigger picture, and so on.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: people like John Edmunds, Neil Ferguson et al. live in bubbles of their own world of academia, detached from the reality of what real world ordinary people think. They are intelligent and knowledgeable in their specific fields, but they are not the sort of people you'd want to have any say in a wider strategy. Many other 'scientists' and 'experts' in the world of academia are like this.

Don't trust them on anything out of their immediate area of expertise and definitely don't trust their application of common sense.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Feb 2021 ==

These are stricter restrictions than we had last year without vaccines.

They're stricter restrictions than many countries have _right now_.

I can't take this article seriously at all. Fails the 'man on the clapham omnibus" test completely. They're in a different world.

Very much so, and they're proud of it!

 

[VauxhallandI]

At which point do these clowns stray into the realm of being charged with something for lies and damaging health?

 

[scotrail158713]

This segment of this article from The Sun is of grave grave concern to me.

Key dates Covid lockdown rules may ease 10 days from Boris Johnson announcement

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will set out his lockdown exit strategy for England in 10 days and the easing of restrictions could begin with the reopening of schools in March

www.mirror.co.uk

It quotes that not just these so called professors are saying social distancing and face mask wearing could remain in place for the rest of the year and possibly into 2022, it quotes that a Whitehall source is saying "that social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn." So going by that, it seems the government have already made their mind up that this damaging social distancing will have to continue until at least the autumn??!! If this ends up happening, this years festivals and events industry will be very unfairly wiped out yet again for the second year in a row. Along with many thousands of businesses in the hospitality industry unable to survive and going under! Along with all the other damaging effects this will have on the nation's mental health. This really should not be allowed to happen!

Hospital numbers and deaths are continuing to fall and fall week on week! Within just a couple of months time they will all be very very low! There will be no absolutely no need whatsoever for this social distancing and face mask wearing to continue any longer! The government needs to start getting this country back to normal again. Social distancing and face mask wearing requirements for many months to come yet is not normal, and will be completely unacceptable.

Regarding a Whitehall source saying social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn. Well on the flip side of that I remember reading an article from last September which stated a Whitehall source said "There definitely won't be a second national lockdown. The government and the country will just not be able to afford it."(or similar words to that effect). And then look what happened, there was a second(and a third!) national lockdown! So taking that into account, maybe we shouldn't take what this particular "Whitehall source" has said in this article today as being absolutely definite what will happen.

I have emboldened below the bit I took from the article. The media’s favourite terms are back again.

Rules around social distancing and face masks could remain in place through the rest of the year and or possibly into 2022.

In my view, it’s all a load of speculation which will most likely come to nothing.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I do wonder if they're leaking this stuff to try and gauge the reaction of the public, and then that'll inform their decisions. It's deeply unpleasant and has the potential to tip people over the edge, but it's the sort of thing I'd expect this government to do.

Thats how Cummins managed govt policy by leaking stuff to the press to gauge reaction although he's out the way allegedly although the principle still applies im sure.

Bottom line is R rate is below 1 across the whole UK which is first time sine July. The vaccination programme is going extraordinarily well and all metrics are responding favourable mainly due to lockdown but increasingly vaccination will begin assisting then the impact of seasonal reduction. In my view what we are starting to see played out in the media is a restoration of the tension between we follow the science and the needs of the economy and a recalibration of where govt policy is headed. As much as BoJo isn't my favourite fan my take is he will set out a plan to see normality restored. There will be a lot more rigour about it and speed may not be as fast as we all want but relaxation will come. What's important is extensive ongoing surveillance of the population so we detect early any upswing as we go into the Autumn and as ive said before we have a contingency plan in place for the NHS as the primary defence not the use of restrictive measures.

 

[Class 33]

I have emboldened below the bit I took from the article. The media’s favourite terms are back again.

In my view, it’s all a load of speculation which will most likely come to nothing.

Yes I know. But the article also states this...

A Whitehall source told the Times this week that social distancing rules will have to remain in place until at least the autumn.

 

[35B]

At which point do these clowns stray into the realm of being charged with something for lies and damaging health?

Probably, and rightly, never - they have professional expertise and are using it. Taking Edmunds as an example, even though I disagree with where he takes his conclusions because of the wider implications, I don't dispute his opinion when viewed through a single lens.

As Churchill said, experts need to be on tap, not on top.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Feb 2021 ==

Thats how Cummins managed govt policy by leaking stuff to the press to gauge reaction although he's out the way allegedly although the principle still applies im sure.

Bottom line is R rate is below 1 across the whole UK which is first time sine July. The vaccination programme is going extraordinarily well and all metrics are responding favourable mainly due to lockdown but increasingly vaccination will begin assisting then the impact of seasonal reduction. In my view what we are starting to see played out in the media is a restoration of the tension between we follow the science and the needs of the economy and a recalibration of where govt policy is headed. As much as BoJo isn't my favourite fan my take is he will set out a plan to see normality restored. There will be a lot more rigour about it and speed may not be as fast as we all want but relaxation will come. What's important is extensive ongoing surveillance of the population so we detect early any upswing as we go into the Autumn and as ive said before we have a contingency plan in place for the NHS as the primary defence not the use of restrictive measures.

What would that contingency plan be if we did see a massive expansion in case numbers and hospitalisations despite vaccinations? How do you prevent people needing healthcare in the first place - especially if you've opened up society?

 

[DB]

What would that contingency plan be if we did see a massive expansion in case numbers and hospitalisations despite vaccinations? How do you prevent people needing healthcare in the first place - especially if you've opened up society?

There is no intication that this is in any way likely, but if it did, what is your solution?

If the vaccine was to be ineffective, we would just have to live with it - society cannot be locked down every time there's a bad year for any respiratory virus.

 

[GrahamD83]

Yes I know. But the article also states this...

I'm wondering who the 'Whitehall Source' is. For all we know it could be a cleaner who has overheard something. Or it could be someone over exaggerating on what has actually been discussed to get a more sensational story.

Also until Autumn could be anytime between September and December.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Probably, and rightly, never - they have professional expertise and are using it. Taking Edmunds as an example, even though I disagree with where he takes his conclusions because of the wider implications, I don't dispute his opinion when viewed through a single lens.

As Churchill said, experts need to be on tap, not on top.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Feb 2021 ==


What would that contingency plan be if we did see a massive expansion in case numbers and hospitalisations despite vaccinations? How do you prevent people needing healthcare in the first place - especially if you've opened up society?

Nope, these Warwick and Imperial reports are sheer fantasy and dangerous. They need to be held accountable

 

[35B]

There is no intication that this is in any way likely, but if it did, what is your solution?

If the vaccine was to be ineffective, we would just have to live with it - society cannot be locked down every time there's a bad year for any respiratory virus.

In that scenario - which I agree is unlikely - you appear to condone the possibility that hospitalisations and deaths would routinely hit their current levels. What makes you think that society as a whole is willing to stomach those levels of excess deaths? Bear in mind that if vaccination proved, long term, that weak a preventative method, natural immunity would also be unlikely to play much role.

Nope, these Warwick and Imperial reports are sheer fantasy and dangerous. They need to be held accountable

I beg to differ; the Italian proceedings against the seismologists who didn't provide the right warnings against the Aquila earthquake show the danger of introducing criminal law into good faith scientific research and analysis. Science needs to be able to come up with inconvenient truths; the last thing we need is a system that develops people like Lysenko.