New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[takno]

I am not sure what to think of this. I was hoping for the rule of six outdoors in public to be reintroduced on the 8th March, however if this is correct that will not occur. That said it is considerably better than what I was fearing in which on the 8th March schools would reopen and that would be it.

It seems more than a bit weak. A huge proportion of the population is already doing more than this now has been doing for a couple of weeks, and I can't see very many over 65s being keen to cooperate a few weeks after their first vaccine. Promising something this feeble really only guarantees that people will be back to indoor mixing with no controls in early March

 

[Bertie the bus]

I noticed a sentence in that article:



Then why the f*** did we have a lockdown and close them in the first place?

Pandering to those who want everything closed I suspect. I was astounded by a recent poll that suggested more than 1/2 of people wanted click and collect prohibited in this lockdown. I have no idea how you can get COVID from that but my guess is a lot of people either think they don't do it so ban it or things they want to do are banned so everything else should be as well.

 

[yorkie]

It's not illegal to, for example, stop for food/drinks, or to take photos or all sorts of other things while on a walk, providing the purpose of you leaving home is to exercise. There is no distance limit either.

Like many are doing already, in reality!

I've seen loads of desperate criminals committing this horrendous crime on the benches in front of the local town hall!

It's not illegal to, for example, stop for food/drinks, or to take photos or all sorts of other things while on a walk, providing the purpose of you leaving home is to exercise. There is no distance limit either.

Technically you cannot lawfully leave the home for the purpose of sitting on a bench, and I suppose if the police realised that the length of exercise was very short, and the time spent sat at a bench was very long, they could argue that your purpose for being outside was arguably not exercises and that your excuse was not "reasonable". The legal position on this is perhaps unclear.

The current situation is an absolute disgrace and I have to question whether enforcement of the most draconian restrictions under the Coronavirus Act is actually a lawful; if it is then our laws are absolutely not fit for purpose. I'll not forget these dark times, and won't easily forgive those who support them.

Pandering to those who want everything closed I suspect. I was astounded by a recent poll that suggested more than 1/2 of people wanted click and collect prohibited in this lockdown. I have no idea how you can get COVID from that but my guess is a lot of people either think they don't do it so ban it or things they want to do are banned so everything else should be as well.

Absolutely. The current shouting by the lockdown indefinitely brigade is deliberately designed to ensure the Government panders to them by offering some concessions (though not nearly as much as they'd hope for, so they will complain anyway, this creating a situation where everyone is unhappy!)

 

[XAM2175]

I suppose we should rejoice that change is on its way, so long as SAGE don't throw their toys out of the pram.

And one again, SAGE can throw whatever items they want out of whatever containments they want and it won't matter a single solitary bit unless the Government chose to side with them.

 

[yorksrob]

And one again, SAGE can throw whatever items they want out of whatever containments they want and it won't matter a single solitary bit unless the Government chose to side with them.

And the Government have been following the SAGE agenda closely since at least August, so in reality it matters a lot.

 

[bramling]

Social distancing is not merely "wrecking business". It _has_ wrecked business.

Social distancing is not merely "causing mental health issues". It _has_ caused mental health issues.

I have been saying this since May last year. I will keep saying it. It is as if people are on some sort of "holiday abroad", not realising that even if we released all restrictions tomorrow, the country we return to will be a shell of its' former self.

Excellent post. Sadly this sums things up perfectly.

What we get back at the end of all this is going to be a severely damaged country in so many ways.

 

[Кряква]

Excellent post. Sadly this sums things up perfectly.

What we get back at the end of all this is going to be a severely damaged country in so many ways.

I just feel schizophrenic when I think about it.

I'd always had in my mind that it'd be nice to start a small business to keep me ticking over in middle age. In my field the jobs tend to dry up at 40-50 if you don't go into management.

So it's 2022. You fancy opening a venue. A board game cafe, say. Maybe a restaurant. Or just some sort of specialist store.

You write your business plan and figure out how you're going to pay for it.

In it, you have to budget for the possibility that the Government will make it illegal for you to operate, or force you to use 25% of your floor space, for months/years on end.

Perhaps in certain circumstances this might even be justifiable.

But here's the kicker - _your landlord charges full rent and you have no recourse_.

If I were 18-21 right now I'd have given a nonsense reason, skipped the border, and built a life elsewhere. They've just deleted the ability for anyone entrepreneurial who's not independently wealthy to plan anything at all.

 

[yorksrob]

In it, you have to budget for the possibility that the Government will make it illegal for you to operate, or force you to use 25% of your floor space, for months/years on end.

Perhaps it's justifiable. But here's the kicker - _your landlord charges full rent and you have no recourse_.

Yes, that's a very good point. It remains to be seen how the various funders and lenders will price this eventuality into their deals going forward. You can guarantee it will be detrimental to the prospective small businessman.

I suspect that lockdown doesn't quite fall under "force majeure", so may require its own clause in contracts.

 

[bramling]

Yes, that's a very good point. It remains to be seen how the various funders and lenders will price this eventuality into their deals going forward. You can guarantee it will be detrimental to the prospective small businessman.

I suspect that lockdown doesn't quite fall under "force majeure", so may require its own clause in contracts.

It’s a very interesting point. If, for example, we end up with businesses essentially having to take up some kind of “lockdown insurance” then ultimately we’re all going to pay for that in the form of inflation.

We are already likely to see some pretty nasty price increases over the next couple of years.

The trouble is the genie is out of the bottle - if it’s happened once then it could happen again (in fact it’s already happened three times!). Was it Ferguson who said that we thought we couldn’t copy China then Italy did it and we realised we could? Just that line on its own is a wrecking-ball.

 

[yorksrob]

It’s a very interesting point. If, for example, we end up with businesses essentially having to take up some kind of “lockdown insurance” then ultimately we’re all going to pay for that in the form of inflation.

We are already likely to see some pretty nasty price increases over the next couple of years.

The trouble is the genie is out of the bottle - if it’s happened once then it could happen again (in fact it’s already happened three times!). Was it Ferguson who said that we thought we couldn’t copy China then Italy did it and we realised we could? Just that line on its own is a wrecking-ball.

Sadly its true. And we, as the public demonstrate it to be true by abiding by the lockdown. The only alternative is that the public turns against lockdown as an option to the extent that it becomes politically toxic, as happenned with railway closures during the 60's - 80's.

 

[bramling]

Sadly its true. And we, as the public demonstrate it to be true by abiding by the lockdown. The only alternative is that the public turns against lockdown as an option to the extent that it becomes politically toxic, as happenned with railway closures during the 60's - 80's.

It could happen, but only once people realise just how much damage it’s done to *them* on an individual level. A lot of people aren’t at this moment seeing the bigger picture, and how that will eventually ripple down to them.

Unfortunately I fear that by that point a massive amount of damage will already have happened.

I suppose one way to short-cut to the dawn of realisation would be if there was a massive step-up in police enforcement, and lots of people started getting Covid-related fines! At the moment it’s too easy to advocate lockdown for others, but take an a-la-carte approach to complying on a personal level.

 

[yorksrob]

It could happen, but only once people realise just how much damage it’s done to *them* on an individual level. A lot of people aren’t at this moment seeing
I suppose one way to short-cut to the dawn of realisation would be if there was a massive step-up in police enforcement, and lots of people started getting Covid-related fines! At the moment it’s too easy to advocate lockdown for others, but take an a-la-carte approach to complying on a personal level.

Yes, I wouldn't fancy it myself - nor would HM Constabulary either I suspect, but a surge of police state activity would definitely force the rump of the pro-lockdown public to reconsider their opinions.

 

[bramling]

Yes, I wouldn't fancy it myself - nor would HM Constabulary either I suspect, but a surge of police state activity would definitely force the rump of the pro-lockdown public to reconsider their opinions.

It would be amusing to see some of the lockdown obsessives round here getting a few fines. Much of the stuff on Facebook is so depressingly hypocritical - stuff along the lines of “we went to the garden centre this afternoon and were absolutely shocked to find it was busy”!

 

[yorksrob]

It would be amusing to see some of the lockdown obsessives round here getting a few fines. Much of the stuff on Facebook is so depressingly hypocritical - stuff along the lines of “we went to the garden centre this afternoon and it were absolutely shocked to find it was busy”!

Yes, a few loctivists hoisted by their own petards would cheer me up no end !

 

[bramling]

Yes, a few loctivists hoisted by their own petards would cheer me up no end !

Same. Not gonna happen round here though, apart from the masks incident with the lad at (what I believe was) Stevenage station there doesn’t seem to have been much in the way of enforcement in this area. I suspect the police know it’s not worth the bother having to deal with the snooty types round here.

 

[yorksrob]

Same. Not gonna happen round here though, apart from the masks incident with the lad at (what I believe was) Stevenage station there doesn’t seem to have been much in the way of enforcement in this area. I suspect the police know it’s not worth the bother having to deal with the snooty types round here.

Lockdown will crumble in the good weather anyway.

 

[bramling]

Lockdown will crumble in the good weather anyway.

It’s already crumbled even with the recent rubbish weather. Even going for a walk on a wet, cold and windy day there’s tons of people out. That’s unheard of normally (at least in the south-east - I realise people are more resilient in other parts!).

Then there’s the traffic on the roads in the evenings, which has been a feature since all but the first few weeks of the first lockdown. It’s quite obvious this is people meeting within household settings.

I did a visit to disused station at work the other week, which felt rather clandestine doing it in the evening. It was work related - well that’s the official line anyway.

 

[yorksrob]

It’s already crumbled with the recent rubbish weather. Even going for a walk on a wet, cold and windy day there’s tons of people out. That’s unheard of normally (at least in the south-east - I realise people are more resilient in other parts!).

I was out walking in the windy freezing temperatures here up North.

There were plenty chatting and enjoying their illicit takeaway coffees as well

 

[duncanp]

Picnics and coffee in the park as lockdown to lift from March 8, Government confirms

First official confirmation that national lockdown in England will ease next month

www.telegraph.co.uk

I am not keen on the idea of "Australia style" local lockdowns for just a few cases though. Surge testing and an increase in contact tracing I can cope with, but the idea that whole cities can be closed at a moment's notice needs to be knocked on the head right now. Otherwise it will be just as bad as the tier system, with endless arguments about whether this or that area should be in lockdown, and SAGE all over social media like a rash wittering on about nothing in particular.

 

[DustyBin]

I am not keen on the idea of "Australia style" local lockdowns for just a few cases though. Surge testing and an increase in contact tracing I can cope with, but the idea that whole cities can be closed at a moment's notice needs to be knocked on the head right now. Otherwise it will be just as bad as the tier system, with endless arguments about whether this or that area should be in lockdown, and SAGE all over social media like a rash wittering on about nothing in particular.

That’s the danger. The door is being left open for SAGE et al to find new variants or for them to make scary (non)predictions regarding case numbers and hospitalisations which will force local lockdowns. Note as well the “Australia style” reference which means actual lockdown, not something we’ve had previously in the UK. The door needs slamming shut immediately.

If the Telegraph article is accurate I’ve got to say I’m rather underwhelmed. There’s no roadmap to normality there, we’re being thrown scraps. I had to laugh when I read that “the PM does not want any celebration”. Who on earth is going to celebrate being allowed to legally sit outside (with members of their own household)? That comment in itself demonstrates the utter contempt in which they hold us.

 

[duncanp]

That’s the danger. The door is being left open for SAGE et al to find new variants or for them to make scary (non)predictions regarding case numbers and hospitalisations which will force local lockdowns. Note as well the “Australia style” reference which means actual lockdown, not something we’ve had previously in the UK. The door needs slamming shut immediately.

If the Telegraph article is accurate I’ve got to say I’m rather underwhelmed. There’s no roadmap to normality there, we’re being thrown scraps. I had to laugh when I read that “the PM does not want any celebration”. Who on earth is going to celebrate being allowed to legally sit outside (with members of their own household)? That comment in itself demonstrates the utter contempt in which they hold us.

There is a lot of expectations management and leaking going on at the moment, just t gauge public reaction.

In one paper you have a headling saying pubs will be able to open fully from Easter, another paper says only outdoor beer gardens will open at Easter, and another (The Sunday Times) saying that pubs could open anywhere between May and August.

Other papers and websites are saying that no dates will be given in the roadmap. Instead we will be subjected to a Chinese Water Torture every two weeks along the lines of "...hospital cases haven't declined quite enough yet, so you'll have to wait another fortnight before going to the pub/having your haircut/going to an indoor swimming pool/hugging Granny instead of murdering her..... Bye, bye, see you in two weeks time.."

The truth will probably be in between, in that schools will reopen on March 8th, at least partially, followed by non essential retail around Easter, and pubs sometime in May. The fact is that there wasn't a big resurgence in cases last year when non essential shops and pubs reopened, so that should give the government confidence in planning the reopening this time round.

I have no doubt that there will be rules in place to make everywhere "COVID secure" at least intially, but I would hope that these restrictions are progressively removed over the summer, with regular reviews every two weeks to see whether they are still required.

I cannot see that the public will tolerate "Australia Style" lockdowns that easily. If, for example, the government has the power to say on a Friday afternoon "..Sorry, but Manchester is closed this weekend..." it will cause massive resentment, plus a general migration en masse to neighbouring areas where everything is still open, which is counterproductive, because the last thing you want to happen is for people to move from an area with high infection rates to and area with low infection rates.

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

I cannot see that the public will tolerate "Australia Style" lockdowns that easily. If, for example, the government has the power to say on a Friday afternoon "..Sorry, but Manchester is closed this weekend..." it will cause massive resentment, plus a general migration en masse to neighbouring areas where everything is still open, which is counterproductive, because the last thing you want to happen is for people to move from an area with high infection rates to and area with low infection rates.

Melbourne down here was put into a 5 day "Circuit breaker" lockdown over it escaping quarantine again. Fair to say after the 100 odd day one last year people are not to thrilled about it. There's a complete lack of trust that it will only go 5 days given last time.

People down here have done the hard yards more then enough and are angry the government has failures in it's system for a second time.

 

[duncanp]

Melbourne down here was put into a 5 day "Circuit breaker" lockdown over it escaping quarantine again. Fair to say after the 100 odd day one last year people are not to thrilled about it. There's a complete lack of trust that it will only go 5 days given last time.

People down here have done the hard yards more then enough and are angry the government has failures in it's system for a second time.

I can understand why people in Melbourne are angry.

And how do you know that the 5 day "snap lockdown" is going to be the only one?

What happens in two weeks time if you get another person testing positive? Are you going to lock down for another 5 days, etc, etc.......?

What do you think that is going to do to business confidence and people's mental health? Who would want to plan an event or come to the city on business or holiday if they could be confined to their hotel rooms or told to go home at a moment's notice?

I can't imagine the tennis fans who travelled to the Australian open, only to be told to leave half way through, are all that pleased.

I really can't see that happening in the UK, despite what some people may want or think.

 

[DelayRepay]

Our government are not capable of doing a 'snap' anything, fortunately.

 

[DustyBin]

Melbourne down here was put into a 5 day "Circuit breaker" lockdown over it escaping quarantine again. Fair to say after the 100 odd day one last year people are not to thrilled about it. There's a complete lack of trust that it will only go 5 days given last time.

People down here have done the hard yards more then enough and are angry the government has failures in it's system for a second time.

What the Australian government is trying to do is incredibly dangerous in my opinion, although I acknowledge the fact that they’ve achieved their primary objective, so far at least. I’d take no pleasure whatsoever in seeing the policy fail as there would be a terrible human cost, but it could happen. How’s the vaccine roll out going, I can’t say that I’ve seen or heard anything about Australia?

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

What the Australian government is trying to do is incredibly dangerous in my opinion, although I acknowledge the fact that they’ve achieved their primary objective, so far at least. I’d take no pleasure whatsoever in seeing the policy fail as there would be a terrible human cost, but it could happen. How’s the vaccine roll out going, I can’t say that I’ve seen or heard anything about Australia?

It's not the federal side of things that are doing it although they can't wash thier hands of it. It's the state premiers. Every state is doing it's own thing somewhat. We have had quarantine leaks in NSW, QLD, SA, WA and now Victoria. With the exception of NSW everyone else went into full panic mode and locked down to varying degrees. States start shutting borders with each other. WA have been the worst on that front.

Vaccine rollout? What vaccine rollout?

The feds who are actually responsible for quarantine have sat on thier hands and done stuff all and fobbed it off to the states.

I can understand why people in Melbourne are angry.

And how do you know that the 5 day "snap lockdown" is going to be the only one?

What happens in two weeks time if you get another person testing positive? Are you going to lock down for another 5 days, etc, etc.......?

What do you think that is going to do to business confidence and people's mental health? Who would want to plan an event or come to the city on business or holiday if they could be confined to their hotel rooms or told to go home at a moment's notice?

I can't imagine the tennis fans who travelled to the Australian open, only to be told to leave half way through, are all that pleased.

I really can't see that happening in the UK, despite what some people may want or think.

There was a farcical scene Friday night where people were allowed to go to the tennis because the lockdown started at 2359. At 2330 they started kicking people out of the arena.

People have planned holidays and they've ended up having to race back home to beat the border closures.
This weekend bars, pubs, restaurants and a lot of other places were preparing for valentines day and lunar new year. All that stock now going to go to waste because it was too late to cancel orders.

As for mental health well the was an article today in The Age.

‘Disheartened, afraid, distressed’: Victorians already feeling lockdown pain

Victorians are already seeking support in higher numbers since the state’s third lockdown started on Saturday.

www.theage.com.au

People still have heightened symptoms of anxiety and depression before the lockdown.


At the same token we do count ourselves lucky we can go out and do things like go to the cricket, the tennis, the football and so on.

 

[brad465]

Lockdown will crumble in the good weather anyway.

It’s already crumbled even with the recent rubbish weather. Even going for a walk on a wet, cold and windy day there’s tons of people out. That’s unheard of normally (at least in the south-east - I realise people are more resilient in other parts!).

Then there’s the traffic on the roads in the evenings, which has been a feature since all but the first few weeks of the first lockdown. It’s quite obvious this is people meeting within household settings.

I did a visit to disused station at work the other week, which felt rather clandestine doing it in the evening. It was work related - well that’s the official line anyway.

I was out walking in the windy freezing temperatures here up North.

There were plenty chatting and enjoying their illicit takeaway coffees as well

It's set to warm up again this week with a return to double figure temperatures, and the forecast currently for next weekend is 15-16C while remaining dry, so if this materialises expect compliance to plummet I reckon.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Feb 2021 ==

The CRG's demands to remove all restrictions by the end of April, based on vaccinating the 1-9 groups, has also made the BBC landing page:

Covid: Dominic Raab rejects CRG calls for lockdown easing date

It comes after Tory backbenchers called for England's Covid restrictions to be lifted by the end of April.

www.bbc.co.uk

All coronavirus legal restrictions must be permanently lifted by the end of April, a group of Tory backbench MPs have demanded.

The lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group (CRG) has written to the PM to say there will be no justification for Covid laws once the nine priority groups have been vaccinated.

Boris Johnson said on Saturday he plans a "cautious" reopening.

So far 14.5 million people have had at least one dose of the vaccine.

Formed in November to oppose a third lockdown, the CRG - which has 63 MPs backing its letter - said the vaccine rollout meant the prime minister had to set out a plan for "a return to normal life" from 8 March, the date pencilled in for school reopening.

"All restrictions remaining after 8 March should be proportionate to the ever-increasing number of people we have protected," the group said - adding that the burden of proof should be on ministers to show restrictions are necessary.

They called for pubs and restaurants to open by Easter in a "Covid-secure" and "commercially viable" way, saying two-thirds of the people in the nine priority groups should have had a first vaccine dose by then.

And by the end of the April, they say, all the priority groups should have had one jab - meaning laws can be removed.

 

[duncanp]

It's not the federal side of things that are doing it although they can't wash thier hands of it. It's the state premiers. Every state is doing it's own thing somewhat. We have had quarantine leaks in NSW, QLD, SA, WA and now Victoria. With the exception of NSW everyone else went into full panic mode and locked down to varying degrees. States start shutting borders with each other. WA have been the worst on that front.

Vaccine rollout? What vaccine rollout?

The feds who are actually responsible for quarantine have sat on thier hands and done stuff all and fobbed it off to the states.


There was a farcical scene Friday night where people were allowed to go to the tennis because the lockdown started at 2359. At 2330 they started kicking people out of the arena.

People have planned holidays and they've ended up having to race back home to beat the border closures.
This weekend bars, pubs, restaurants and a lot of other places were preparing for valentines day and lunar new year. All that stock now going to go to waste because it was too late to cancel orders.

As for mental health well the was an article today in The Age.

‘Disheartened, afraid, distressed’: Victorians already feeling lockdown pain

Victorians are already seeking support in higher numbers since the state’s third lockdown started on Saturday.

www.theage.com.au

People still have heightened symptoms of anxiety and depression before the lockdown.


At the same token we do count ourselves lucky we can go out and do things like go to the cricket, the tennis, the football and so on.

And are the authorities in Melbourne going to compensate pubs, bars and restaurants for the stock they are going to have to destroy? I doubt it somehow.

If the people making the decisions about these "snap lockdowns" had to suffer the financial consequences of them, they might not be so quick to lockdown in the future.

I have also see pictures on Twitter of huge queues in Australian supermarkets with people panic buying at the last minute before the lockdown comes into effect. That is the last thing you want to happen, ie large numbers of people packed closely together in an indoor environment - talk about a potential superspreader event, especially if it is repeated in other supermarkets across the affected area.

 

[island]

So it's 2022. You fancy opening a venue. A board game cafe, say. Maybe a restaurant. Or just some sort of specialist store.

You write your business plan and figure out how you're going to pay for it.

In it, you have to budget for the possibility that the Government will make it illegal for you to operate, or force you to use 25% of your floor space, for months/years on end.

Perhaps in certain circumstances this might even be justifiable.

But here's the kicker - _your landlord charges full rent and you have no recourse_.

Yes, that's a very good point. It remains to be seen how the various funders and lenders will price this eventuality into their deals going forward. You can guarantee it will be detrimental to the prospective small businessman.

I suspect that lockdown doesn't quite fall under "force majeure", so may require its own clause in contracts.

Turnover-based rents are starting to make a show in high street commercial leases, though so far it’s predominantly arising during restructurings. They are already prevalent in (for example) airport retail.

What the lenders behind all these transactions will make of them is quite another matter.

 

[Tomp94]

“The burden is on ministers to demonstrate the evidence of effectiveness and proportionality with a cost-benefit analysis for each restriction, and a roadmap for when they will be removed.”

Well, that's good if true, because it'll be the first time throughout this whole crisis.

So on the 8th March, the same people who are allowed out to exercise can now stop and have a coffee. I suppose that is the end of "stay at home" in a way.

I suppose we should rejoice that change is on its way, so long as SAGE don't throw their toys out of the pram.

People are already out having coffee with a mate or two here, and sitting along the seafront to enjoy it. The stay in your prison cell for 23 hours a day looks to be heading out, replaced with, you can leave your cell freely and meet with one other prisoner outside for a coffee.

edit: furlough ends at the end of april, so everything must be fully re open and operate normally by then, unless fur,ligh gets extended yet again, which wouldn’t surprise me.