New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[bramling]

This uplifting vehicle is driving around these parts today (South Woodford and Wanstead) blaring out prerecorded messages about staying at home, trying to not kill your grandparents etc. Most relaxing and not at all oppressive.

How utterly dystopian, and how nice that this old bus is no doubt spewing out fumes all over everyone. But of course that doesn’t matter as Covid is the only thing which now matters.

 

[Domh245]

I cannot see any significant rise in infections from playing golf.

Clubhouses afterwards would be the main thing, but there'll be an element of politics to it as well - unless they can let all outdoors sports return it is simpler to go with an "all prohibited" than exceptions, particularly when there's scope for "rich tories allow golf club chums to get a round in" type headlines

How utterly dystopian, and how nice that this old bus is no doubt spewing out fumes all over everyone. But of course that doesn’t matter as Covid is the only thing which now matters.

Being in the vicinity of that bus is probably one of the few times a face covering makes sense!

 

[greyman42]

Clubhouses afterwards would be the main thing, but there'll be an element of politics to it as well - unless they can let all outdoors sports return it is simpler to go with an "all prohibited" than exceptions, particularly when there's scope for "rich tories allow golf club chums to get a round in" type headlines

I was thinking on no clubhouses or changing rooms being open.

 

[6862]

This uplifting vehicle is driving around these parts today (South Woodford and Wanstead) blaring out prerecorded messages about staying at home, trying to not kill your grandparents etc. Most relaxing and not at all oppressive.

This is possibly the most dystopian thing I have seen yet.

 

[bramling]

This is possibly the most dystopian thing I have seen yet.

The worse I’ve seen is some of the variable road signs round here last year, which were showing a message which was something like

“OBEY THE RULES

OR YOU MOVE

TO HIGHER TIER”

 

[Kite159]

I was thinking on no clubhouses or changing rooms being open.

Would make sense, limited numbers allowed on the golf course both in terms of group size & number allowed out at once. No indoor facilities open other than maybe the toilets

 

[yorksrob]

When I was watching non-league football last year, the club house was closed and we were socially distanced on the terraces.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The problem I see though is regionalisation of restrictions now appears off the agenda so relaxation is dependant on the worst case areas dropping down to whatever threshold they are going to set and that could take well into March. Whilst L&SE is showing downward trends in admission and hospitalisations rates other regions are still only just coming off the peaks with ventilator patients only just starting to turn down. I also thought numbers in hospital would have fallen faster in L&SE but downward trend isn't matching case rate decline from earlier weeks. I wonder whether as capacity becomes available they are admitting less ill patients so they can manage them better and avoid a more serious deterioration.

Its all positive but when you have Hunts view of the world and Hancock today saying things are still extremely serious in hospitals we are clearly way off what they see as an appropriate level. Then there is a leak that all over 50's are targeted by Early May to allow local elections to go ahead I would suggest is the likely date for significant relaxations not end of March. Even CRG seem to have fallen in line with its erstwhile leader Mark Harper saying we need to get on with it then so all restrictions can be lifted by early May.

So it looks like no one is going to pushback so will just have to count the days til BoJo reveals all on 22/2.

 

[duncanp]

The problem I see though is regionalisation of restrictions now appears off the agenda so relaxation is dependant on the worst case areas dropping down to whatever threshold they are going to set and that could take well into March. Whilst L&SE is showing downward trends in admission and hospitalisations rates other regions are still only just coming off the peaks with ventilator patients only just starting to turn down. I also thought numbers in hospital would have fallen faster in L&SE but downward trend isn't matching case rate decline from earlier weeks. I wonder whether as capacity becomes available they are admitting less ill patients so they can manage them better and avoid a more serious deterioration.

Its all positive but when you have Hunts view of the world and Hancock today saying things are still extremely serious in hospitals we are clearly way off what they see as an appropriate level. Then there is a leak that all over 50's are targeted by Early May to allow local elections to go ahead I would suggest is the likely date for significant relaxations not end of March. Even CRG seem to have fallen in line with its erstwhile leader Mark Harper saying we need to get on with it then so all restrictions can be lifted by early May.

So it looks like no one is going to pushback so will just have to count the days til BoJo reveals all on 22/2.

My local area has the highest case rate in England at the moment (515 per 100k)

But that has fallen by 50% since it peaked on January 8th, and if it carries on falling at the same rate, it will be around 250 per 100k by the time of the lockdown review on 15th February.

So I don't think it will take all that long for the case rate to fall back to a level that the government feels acceptable.

So I still think we will see some relaxation of restrictions around the anniversary of the first lockdown, with a second tranche of relaxation of measures in the middle of April, and a third tranche at the beginning of May, so that England is in Tier 1 or less.

 

[Merseysider]

This uplifting vehicle is driving around these parts today (South Woodford and Wanstead) blaring out prerecorded messages about staying at home, trying to not kill your grandparents etc. Most relaxing and not at all oppressive.

What in the hell is that

What next, tanks on the streets bedecked in red & yellow striped ‘STAY HOME -> PROTECT THE NHS -> SAVE LIVES’ messaging?

Personally I think any serious reduction in restrictions has to be done before April or, as alluded to by others, people will just stop following the rules anyway.

 

[35B]

You might be comfortable with people coming up with arbitrary, meaningless targets which are almost impossible to hit before we are allowed out of our homes but I’m not. Last year it took until mid-June before cases dropped to below 1,000 and we were only performing 1/10th of the tests we are now. 1,000 cases per day would take literally months of hard lockdown to achieve. The target is also meaningless because if the vast majority have no or mild symptoms, which is likely following mass vaccination, it doesn’t matter whether there are 1,000 or 20,000 cases per day. It is the effect of the cases that is important, not the quantity.

The two are related. The unknown is how the relationship we’ve seen so far will be affected by vaccination results.

I’m open to suggestions about what the right threshold should be, but basing the decision on prevalence over time seems the right way round to me.

 

[XAM2175]

This isn't necessarily a reason to keep golf courses closed, but in my opinion the benefit to the tens or even hundreds of people who can enjoy use of any given golf course's land (or at least the public rights of way thereon) without the usual danger of being hit by golf balls, during this time when they can't really do much other than exercising outdoors, is far greater than the benefit to the few who could play golf on there.

This actually became a genuine political issue in Melbourne - a council-owned golf course in the inner suburbs had been opened for general recreation as they headed into spring with loosened restrictions, and rather a lot of people in the area decided they weren't happy for it to go back to being a golf course afterwards.

What next, tanks on the streets bedecked in red & yellow striped ‘STAY HOME -> PROTECT THE NHS -> SAVE LIVES’ messaging?

Be glad they scrapped Johnson's stupid water cannon or we'd probably be seeing them tarted up for exactly this sort of thing

 

[Bertie the bus]

The two are related. The unknown is how the relationship we’ve seen so far will be affected by vaccination results.

I’m open to suggestions about what the right threshold should be, but basing the decision on prevalence over time seems the right way round to me.

The two are sometimes related but it is not credible to base that relationship on what has happened in the past rather than what will happen post-vaccination. Though the two certainly aren't directly related because once most adults are vaccinated it really doesn't matter if the virus is quite widespread in schools as virtually no children become seriously ill, so by plucking some ludicrously low number of infections per day out of the air as a target would pretty much mean we could never get back to normal because as we saw last autumn schools are one of the top breeding grounds.

 

[Freightmaster]

The two are related. The unknown is how the relationship we’ve seen so far will be affected by vaccination results.

I’m open to suggestions about what the right threshold should be, but basing the decision on prevalence over time seems the right way round to me.

One of the major problem with insisting on that approach is the thorny issue of 'false positives',
which isn't that much of a problem when prevalence is high, as they effectively get drowned out
by the tens of thousands of genuine positive results, but if virus prevalence was to fall significantly,
as it did last Summer, the situation is reversed and the false positives become dominant.


Specifically, it's thought that somewhere between 98% and 99% of positive PCR results are 'true' positives,
but even if we are generous and assume that the figure is as high as 99.5%, that still means that 0.5% are
false positives, so on a day when 700,000 tests are performed, that means that at least 3,500 are
false positives, even if the number of actual 'cases' on that day is zero!!


In other words, while it should be possible to get genuine cases under 1000 per day later in the year as per
Hunt's statement, it will be impossible to prove that they are at that level because of the statistically flawed
nature of the PCR test in a low prevalence environment.



This is the main reason why 'zero covid' is a ridiculous pipe dream - because there is absolutely
no way of knowing for sure that there are less than 3,500 cases, never mind zero!!







MARK

 

[Bantamzen]

You might be comfortable with people coming up with arbitrary, meaningless targets which are almost impossible to hit before we are allowed out of our homes but I’m not. Last year it took until mid-June before cases dropped to below 1,000 and we were only performing 1/10th of the tests we are now. 1,000 cases per day would take literally months of hard lockdown to achieve. The target is also meaningless because if the vast majority have no or mild symptoms, which is likely following mass vaccination, it doesn’t matter whether there are 1,000 or 20,000 cases per day. It is the effect of the cases that is important, not the quantity.

If any such target became arbitrary the answer to it would be simple, we should simply stop taking the tests. No test = no recorded infections.

This uplifting vehicle is driving around these parts today (South Woodford and Wanstead) blaring out prerecorded messages about staying at home, trying to not kill your grandparents etc. Most relaxing and not at all oppressive.

What the actual? Whose brain-dead idea was that?

 

[35B]

One of the major problem with insisting on that approach is the thorny issue of 'false positives',
which isn't that much of a problem when prevalence is high, as they effectively get drowned out
by the tens of thousands of genuine positive results, but if virus prevalence was to fall significantly,
as it did last Summer, the situation is reversed and the false positives become dominant.


Specifically, it's thought that somewhere between 98% and 99% of positive PCR results are 'true' positives,
but even if we are generous and assume that the figure is as high as 99.5%, that still means that 0.5% are
false positives, so on a day when 700,000 tests are performed, that means that at least 3,500 are
false positives, even if the number of actual 'cases' on that day is zero!!


In other words, while it should be possible to get genuine cases under 1000 per day later in the year as per
Hunt's statement, it will be impossible to prove that they are at that level because of the statistically flawed
nature of the PCR test in a low prevalence environment.



This is the main reason why 'zero covid' is a ridiculous pipe dream - because there is absolutely
no way of knowing for sure that there are less than 3,500 cases, never mind zero!!







MARK

Fair enough, that suggests limits on a statistical approach - but not that it’s invalid, nor that it is a worse form of risk management than a purely date based approach.

 

[ChrisC]

The problem I see though is regionalisation of restrictions now appears off the agenda so relaxation is dependant on the worst case areas dropping down to whatever threshold they are going to set and that could take well into March. Whilst L&SE is showing downward trends in admission and hospitalisations rates other regions are still only just coming off the peaks with ventilator patients only just starting to turn down. I also thought numbers in hospital would have fallen faster in L&SE but downward trend isn't matching case rate decline from earlier weeks. I wonder whether as capacity becomes available they are admitting less ill patients so they can manage them better and avoid a more serious deterioration.

Its all positive but when you have Hunts view of the world and Hancock today saying things are still extremely serious in hospitals we are clearly way off what they see as an appropriate level. Then there is a leak that all over 50's are targeted by Early May to allow local elections to go ahead I would suggest is the likely date for significant relaxations not end of March. Even CRG seem to have fallen in line with its erstwhile leader Mark Harper saying we need to get on with it then so all restrictions can be lifted by early May.

So it looks like no one is going to pushback so will just have to count the days til BoJo reveals all on 22/2.

Regional easing of the lockdown does now seem to be completely off the agenda with a national approach looking almost certain. Some areas of the country do now have quite low infection rates and many other areas, especially in London and the South East, rates are now falling quite rapidly. Although there is hardly any region now where rates are rising, as I have pointed out previously, unfortunately there are still a few areas where infection rates are remaining quite high and are only falling very slowly.

Parts of the East Midlands, especially Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, are areas where the case rate has remained high and still is only falling very slowly. I think part of the problem is that still rates keep rising rapidly in very localised hotspots. I think the current figure of case rates for Nottinghamshire is now around 300 per 100k, but that is the average for the whole county. Taking it down a level, to local council districts, the figures for Nottinghamshire range between 250 and 350 per 100k. Then if you go even more localised to local council wards that is where you see the real big differences in infection levels which make up these county wide average figures. In the rural council ward where I live figures are currently 168 per 100k, yet only 5 miles away in a more urban council ward it is 810 per 100k. There are still a small number of local council wards, especially in the ex mining areas of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire with case rates keep rising again to these levels. Hopefully this will slowly stop happening over the next few weeks and then the averages for East Midlands counties will begin to fall more rapidly.

 

[takno]

Regional easing of the lockdown does now seem to be completely off the agenda with a national approach looking almost certain. Some areas of the country do now have quite low infection rates and many other areas, especially in London and the South East, rates are now falling quite rapidly. Although there is hardly any region now where rates are rising, as I have pointed out previously, unfortunately there are still a few areas where infection rates are remaining quite high and are only falling very slowly.

Parts of the East Midlands, especially Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, are areas where the case rate has remained high and still is only falling very slowly. I think part of the problem is that still rates keep rising rapidly in very localised hotspots. I think the current figure of case rates for Nottinghamshire is now around 300 per 100k, but that is the average for the whole county. Taking it down a level, to local council districts, the figures for Nottinghamshire range between 250 and 350 per 100k. Then if you go even more localised to local council wards that is where you see the real big differences in infection levels which make up these county wide average figures. In the rural council ward where I live figures are currently 168 per 100k, yet only 5 miles away in a more urban council ward it is 810 per 100k. There are still a small number of local council wards, especially in the ex mining areas of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire with case rates keep rising again to these levels. Hopefully this will slowly stop happening over the next few weeks and then the averages for East Midlands counties will begin to fall more rapidly.

You can't get meaningful weekly figures for local council wards. The difference between 100 and 800 per 100k at that level is basically two families testing positive

 

[Ianno87]

You can't get meaningful weekly figures for local council wards. The difference between 100 and 800 per 100k at that level is basically two families testing positive

I've questioned that method of "analysis'" of local rates on Twitter - quoting small council wards of "cases per 100k" when the actual populations are only a small fraction of 100,000. I think my own local ward (at the time) was something like 40 individual cases.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Regional easing of the lockdown does now seem to be completely off the agenda with a national approach looking almost certain. Some areas of the country do now have quite low infection rates and many other areas, especially in London and the South East, rates are now falling quite rapidly. Although there is hardly any region now where rates are rising, as I have pointed out previously, unfortunately there are still a few areas where infection rates are remaining quite high and are only falling very slowly.

Parts of the East Midlands, especially Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, are areas where the case rate has remained high and still is only falling very slowly. I think part of the problem is that still rates keep rising rapidly in very localised hotspots. I think the current figure of case rates for Nottinghamshire is now around 300 per 100k, but that is the average for the whole county. Taking it down a level, to local council districts, the figures for Nottinghamshire range between 250 and 350 per 100k. Then if you go even more localised to local council wards that is where you see the real big differences in infection levels which make up these county wide average figures. In the rural council ward where I live figures are currently 168 per 100k, yet only 5 miles away in a more urban council ward it is 810 per 100k. There are still a small number of local council wards, especially in the ex mining areas of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire with case rates keep rising again to these levels. Hopefully this will slowly stop happening over the next few weeks and then the averages for East Midlands counties will begin to fall more rapidly.

The top area in the UK is Devon with all its 7 of its local districts including Plymouth and Exeter at less than 90/100k 7 day average - its best area is Torridge at 16/100k and is still falling yet they reap no benefit from their efforts doesn't seem right to me.

 

[DB]

The top area in the UK is Devon with all its 7 of its local districts including Plymouth and Exeter at less than 90/100k 7 day average - its best area is Torridge at 16/100k and is still falling yet they reap no benefit from their efforts doesn't seem right to me.

I think we need to get away from this idea that low case numbers are down to heroic efforts by the people in those areas.

They aren't - it's simply a case of fluctuations happening, and it spreads less is more sparsely populated areas anyway as there are fewer people.

 

[Bantamzen]

I've questioned that method of "analysis'" of local rates on Twitter - quoting small council wards of "cases per 100k" when the actual populations are only a small fraction of 100,000. I think my own local ward (at the time) was something like 40 individual cases.

Indeed, my ward the rate is currently 211.5, or in real numbers 17 people. I can look out of my windows and see houses with more people living in them than that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think we need to get away from this idea that low case numbers are down to heroic efforts by the people in those areas.

They aren't - it's simply a case of fluctuations happening, and it spreads less is more sparsely populated areas anyway as there are fewer people.

Didn't suggest it was heroic but they had high rates last November and now they are best County in England. Yes rural helps but both their large conurbations have low rates so they are doing something right. Also much of England outside of the big regional conurbations mirrors Devon but aren't as low (yet). To me pursuing a one size fits all approach is tantamount to a covert zero Covid policy and that is substantial mission creep. Boris stalling the roadmap till 22/2 is all part of this he should come clean now about what teh criteria is and to be clear im not looking for dates on anything just a coherent strategy that is supported by parliament.

 

[DB]

Didn't suggest it was heroic but they had high rates last November and now they are best County in England. Yes rural helps but both their large conurbations have low rates so they are doing something right. Also much of England outside of the big regional conurbations mirrors Devon but aren't as low (yet). To me pursuing a one size fits all approach is tantamount to a covert zero Covid policy and that is substantial mission creep. Boris stalling the roadmap till 22/2 is all part of this he should come clean now about what teh criteria is and to be clear im not looking for dates on anything just a coherent strategy that is supported by parliament.

I'm not at all convinced that they are 'doing something right' - fluctuations happen naturally, and neither of the cities in Devon is particularly large by national standards - and apart from them, most of the towns are small.

I don't think we should be getting back into the performance of that ridiculous tier system with areas being moved up and down and everybody losing track of what rules they are supposed to be following today. A rolling back of the restrictions across the board is needed, and they need to start making clear now what the timescale for this is.

 

[Bikeman78]

If any such target became arbitrary the answer to it would be simple, we should simply stop taking the tests. No test = no recorded infections.

I'm very unlikely to take a test unless I get seriously ill. I don't want to add to their statistics. If track and trace or the App tell me to isolate, I'll just stay at home for 10 days.

 

[Class 33]

Just been out for my combined permitted daily exercise(!!!) and shopping trip. And I can see that there is a lot more people out and about walking now as well a lot more traffic. It's steadily increasing week on week since the third lockdown started. I can also feel more optimism in the air now. More people are looking a little happier. Many people I think are feeling more optimistic that the OLD normal will soon be returning.

If though on 8th March with the first easing of lockdown the ridiculous "Stay at Home" messaging is still going, then I think very very few people are going to be sticking to that, especially if the weather really starts warming up. In some previous years we've had temperature of 25C in mid March! If that happens this year, then many people will be heading to the nation's parks, beaches, and beauty spots to get out and about and enjoy the weather, even if the "Stay at Home" nonsense is still going.

 

[island]

Sadiq Khan and TFL may force Tube and bus passengers to wear medical-grade anti-Covid masks amid fears cloth face coverings don't protect against mutant strains of virus.

Passengers may be told to wear higher-grade anti-Covid masks

The London Mayor and Transport for London launched two reviews of the current guidance as the 'Kent strain' continued to spread through the UK.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Hopefully he gets voted out in May. I didn't need any more reasons not to vote for him though!

 

[bramling]

Just been out for my combined permitted daily exercise(!!!) and shopping trip. And I can see that there is a lot more people out and about walking now as well a lot more traffic. It's steadily increasing week on week since the third lockdown started. I can also feel more optimism in the air now. More people are looking a little happier. Many people I think are feeling more optimistic that the OLD normal will soon be returning.

If though on 8th March with the first easing of lockdown the ridiculous "Stay at Home" messaging is still going, then I think very very few people are going to be sticking to that, especially if the weather really starts warming up. In some previous years we've had temperature of 25C in mid March! If that happens this year, then many people will be heading to the nation's parks, beaches, and beauty spots to get out and about and enjoy the weather, even if the "Stay at Home" nonsense is still going.

My town centre was absolutely packed just now, never seen W H Smith’s so busy!

The whole thing is a complete (unfunny) joke. Why are we wasting so much public money on a flawed policy?

People don’t want to stay at home, and they are not staying at home. Get everyone back to work ASAP.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Feb 2021 ==

Hopefully he gets voted out in May. I didn't need any more reasons not to vote for him though!

Unfortunately I’d say it’s almost a certainty he will be voted in again. It seems to be part of the job description for that post that one has to be an odious incompetent oddball. Khan is simply playing politics.

 

[TheBeard]

Is that the same Hunt that brutally cut the NHS/ITU beds and drove many doctors and nurses away from the NHS?
If anyone has made this mess worse than it could have been...

 

[Carlisle]

. To me pursuing a one size fits all approach is tantamount to a covert zero Covid policy and that is substantial mission creep.

I tend to agree, we went through all the malarkey last summer of easing out of lockdown slowly with retail in June, pubs in July & leisure centres in August etc & it still all went wrong 2 months later. So we may as well just get on with re instating the tier system in March