I'm not sure why there's been such an obsession with ORCATS on here. Not every decision is some sort of ORCATS raid despite what some people like to believe.*
The idea of providing a fast and frequent service helps modal shift towards public transport, that is well evidenced. You may be able to strip one service out here or there but in reality only four trains an hour between York and Leeds won't go down well with customers or stakeholders
ORCATS is precisely why TOCs tried to "game" the system, by focussing on running lots of short trains.
Look at how Derby to Birmingham went from there trains per hour to five when Virgin's XC service was increased to half hourly so Central Trains fought back by extending their Matlock - Derby service through to Birmingham - demand from Derby to Birmingham hadn't gone up by 40% but it was a case of "you're throwing one more service per hour along the track so we need to win back market share by running another short train each hour".
So TPE go up from three to four on the Leeds - York corridor, meaning Northern added an extra train per hour (by speeding up the Blackpool service so that the intermediate stops were given to a new Leeds - York service).
We now have seven services per hour on the Leeds - York corridor, rather than five, but with no infrastructure improvements or platforms - which means that a minor delay to one service can quickly have knock on effects.
For example, from Leeds to York you have departures at xx:04, xx:14 and xx:18 - three trains in under fifteen minutes. Coming back you have a few examples of two trains within five minutes (e.g. if there's any delay between Redcar to York on the xx:20 to Manchester Airport then that's going to kick into the xx:23 from York to Blackpool Airport).
We just don't have the infrastructure to accommodate all of these short trains.
Clearly, if you ask passengers, they want a frequent service, sure, "stakeholders" will demand that their town has a direct service to as many places as possible, but there's just not the capacity to ensure that everywhere has a direct service to everywhere.
Not the obsession with Northern England, more like London. What's the need for direct services to locations like Huddersfield and Blackpool when there's regular connections? Manchester Airport is completely different - one of the busiest airports in the UK and with many destinations compared to other airports. Enabling those in the North-East (not just Newcastle) to get their direct or with only one change is much better than stripping back locations and saying to someone - You need to change at Darlington, York and Manchester Pic to get to the Airport. That'll turn people off using rail.
Everyone wants direct services to places like Airports but how much demand is there actually to get from Newcastle to Manchester Airport though? Thousands a day? Hundreds? Dozens? Spread over several hours of service each day?
Is it really worth turning services into a mess of hourly routes to facilitate these passengers? (not like Newcastle doesn't have its own Airport - not as big as Manchester but still a range of international destinations)
Or if it's so important for Newcastle to have direct links to Manchester Airport then how come lots of other places closer to Manchester don't have one? If Newcastle doesn't have as many destinations from its Airport that Manchester has then surely the same can be said of Birmingham - yet they seem to cope without a service to Manchester's amazing airport (?)
Why would TPE put brand new trains on the South Route when A) The capacity issues were on the core of the North route (the one you want to strip services from ironically) and B) Why would TPE put new trains on a route where there's speed constraints meaning they'd never run near their top speed and on a route that is not electrified past Stockport? Madness. Double 185 sets are now the norm.
So there was no need for new trains on the South TPE route as there weren't any capacity issues... but First have doubled up services anyway?
Want to think that one through again?
The problem with Manchester-Huddersfield-Wakefield-Castleford-York is that it will be prone to the same sort of disruptions as Blackpool/Manchester-Todmorden-Halifax-Bradford-Leeds(-York), crossing lots of other routes. Ultimately, we're guessing at what might happen post-TRU and post-Church Fenton in terms of services but for my money we should be using the infrastructure and paths with as few "off-piste excursions" as possible.
The Edinburgh service is more than likely going to be pulled back to Newcastle. It also seems pointless for LNER to operate such a service too in the future, especially if there's going to be a rationalisation of services on the ECML.
The point of a Manchester-Huddersfield-Wakefield-Castleford-York service is that it allows TPE to have plenty of drivers signed on a diversionary route and one that is going to be heavily used while TRU is happening. It also gives Wakefield and Castleford greater connectivity to York and Manchester.
The idea of running hourly services just to keep up staff route knowledge is a nonsense.
A Manchester - York service via Castleford would be a waste of time - overtaken by a few of the existing services via Leeds. Fair enough if you want to extend the Huddersfield stopper to Wakefield, which essentially just brings back what FNW inherited from BR. But why extend to York? Wakefield already has an hourly York service. Castleford can't sustain a regular bus service to York, so I'm not sure how busy a train would be. We've enough problems with all of the short DMU services running around northern England without throwing scarce resources at an hourly service on a route with no current daytime passenger service. This should be filled in the "luxury" column.
Reading this entire thread feels like too much hard work, so I'll just suggest that if TPE get rid, the Chiltern Commuters would love some new 100mph loco hauled carriages to be paired with their class 68s, and maybe some more 68s and Mk5as to cascade the 168s to force out the 165s
That'd be fine for me - whilst the TPE rakes and the Chiltern rakes aren't
identical, the TPE ones would be a lot less "non-standard" down south than they are in northern England - and we'd take a handful of 168/170s in exchange (given that they would be able to work with the ex-Scotrail Turbostars around these parts).