Surely it helps by allowing trains to and from Wigan to move over to #5 and #4 while leaving #3 and #1 for the Blackburns, or have I got it wrong?
Definitely not all wrong. But splitting Manchester bound trains between 3 and 4 causes problems due to the rather long walk required to get between the two especially in the case of last minute platform changes. It really needs an additional crossing between the two islands towards the Up end.
Cross-Wigan services are being reduced from the May timetable change anyway. The Kirkby - Victoria stopper is being replaced by separate Wallgate - Victoria and Wallgate - Kirkby shuttles, which do not connect.
As I understand it, this is because Network Rail cannot find a path into Victoria for a 4th hourly service from the Atherton line, as specified in the Northern franchise agreement.
But most of the traffic on the Kirkby line is indeed cross-Wigan (purely local passengers are much better served by buses). There have been rows in the past when the timings adversely affected the scholars traffic to/from Orrell. I totally get that pathing in/out/around Manchester is becoming problematic but it would seem that the Wallgate services are very much getting the mucky end of the stick. I would certainly expect TfGM to be exerting pressure on NR to find a solution.
That's not going to be received well by the two passengers and their dogs and bicycles
Maybe OPSTA needs to become OPSKWTA? They do seem to be doing quite well at making sure the other rural lines around West Lancashire aren't ignored.
What does seem odd though is that the through services remain in the morning and evening peak - surely when paths are at their scarcest?
What do you have against the Kirkby line? It may well be that the numbers transferring between Merseyrail/Northern at Kirkby itself are small and few of those go past Rainford. But from Orrell eastwards usage picks up markedly to the extent that the key am peak service has to be strengthened to ensure there is room for passengers after Wigan. And there is reasonable shopping traffic to Manchester though the evening peak fare restriction has dampened that. If it was possible to provide a half-hourly service from Orrell eastwards I am confident that passenger numbers would be boosted but trains have to run to Manchester. Anything else will serve only to depress those numbers.
Personally, I think that the Atherton line is too long to be considered as a tram route, and would create problems for Manchester to Southport services should any problems - or engineering work - block the route via Bolton. Of course they could (but wouldn't) reconvert the Atherton route to 4 tracks (as it was until the 1960s), 2 for heavy rail, 2 for Metrolink....
That could still be done if Metrolink was to run to Leigh via Atherton. It would be nonsense to make the Atherton line a Metrolink only route but parallel routes could work. Running to Leigh would avoid the complications of dealing with Hindley to Wigan which is too far from Manchester for a tram route anyway. Doubtless someone will shout "tram-train" but despite TfW's plans the concept has still to prove itself on British mainline infrastructure.
There are 4tph on the Atherton line in the peaks, with services to/from Wigan (both Wallgate and North Western) as well as the through trains to/from Kirkby. Maybe the issue is the performance impact of running the 4th service all day long?
Quite possibly a less obvious case that would be improved by building Piccadilly 15/16 and thereby reducing the potential for performance issues through Victoria.