Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[158820]

Issues I foresee are boat traffic at Holyhead, and political grumbling that Anglesey loses out on direct trains to Cardiff (but they've got the airport!). West Coast services don't dovetail nicely with most sailings (even assuming the boat arrives on time), so luggage-toting passengers usualy travel on the next Wales & Borders service available.

An overview of the current timetable for passengers arriving at Holyhead by boat (official connection time 30 mins):

0011 Stena and 0020 Irish Ferries: next departure 0425 Cardiff then 0448 London
0545 Stena: next departure 0551 London, then 0629 Cardiff
1045 and 1120 Irish Ferries: next departure 1127 Birmingham then 1232 Cardiff
1150 Stena: next departure 1232 Cardiff then 1252 London
1630 Irish Ferries: next departure 1650 Cardiff, then 1730 Shrewsbury
1840 Stena: next departure 1921 Birmingham via Shrewsbury then 2032 Crewe

Many of these will want to travel to Chester/Crewe before changing for a connecting service: changing at the Junction as well might not be popular. (How many could have a direct train to their destination from Llandudno Junction, I wonder?)

Having arrived in Holyhead on the swift at 16.30 on 1 weekday day last July and September. the load of foot passengers just fited on the 2 car 158 with only a handful of spare seats.

 

[craigybagel]

Having arrived in Holyhead on the swift at 16.30 on 1 weekday day last July and September. the load of foot passengers just fited on the 2 car 158 with only a handful of spare seats.

Most of whom then change at Chester on to the 18:55 to Crewe, that service always has a lot of rail and sail passengers, mostly going to London.

 

[Dai Corner]

Most of whom then change at Chester on to the 18:55 to Crewe, that service always has a lot of rail and sail passengers, mostly going to London.

Clearly that train is going to the wrong destination then, forcing most of its passengers to change twice.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Really a London train should meet all ferries, that is the primary demand for ferry passengers.

 

[158820]

Most of whom then change at Chester on to the 18:55 to Crewe, that service always has a lot of rail and sail passengers, mostly going to London.

Clearly that train is going to the wrong destination then, forcing most of its passengers to change twice.

the 16.30 ferry arrival would rarely make the 16.50 train from my observations. (unless it is late) the next departure,17.30 to Shrewsbury, that I was referring to in my post is a 2 car 158. This only requires change at Chester as an incoming voyager is split to form the 19.35 to Euston.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Clearly that train is going to the wrong destination then, forcing most of its passengers to change twice.

1650 -No its not its going to Cardiff the center of the Universe for ....erh ...oooh some people who live in Cardiff.......

 

[Gareth Marston]

Really a London train should meet all ferries, that is the primary demand for ferry passengers.

Now now Bletchlyite you know that any thread involving Welsh train services cannot possibly have services that reflect actual demand, this would cause anxiety and confusion among-st Welsh politicians and civil servants....

 

[krus_aragon]

Having arrived in Holyhead on the swift at 16.30 on 1 weekday day last July and September. the load of foot passengers just fited on the 2 car 158 with only a handful of spare seats.

That reflects my experience of coming home on that Swift sailing: quite cosy on the 158.

the 16.30 ferry arrival would rarely make the 16.50 train from my observations. (unless it is late) the next departure,17.30 to Shrewsbury, that I was referring to in my post is a 2 car 158. This only requires change at Chester as an incoming voyager is split to form the 19.35 to Euston.

I've not made that connection myself (it is 10 minutes under the recommended time) but I figured it was a big enough gap that someone would bring me up if I didn't mention it.

 

[craigybagel]

Clearly that train is going to the wrong destination then, forcing most of its passengers to change twice.

Indeed. But as Gareth Marston has pointed out, certain powerful people in Cardiff Bay are of the opinion that being as how they're part of the glorious Welsh nation, the good folk of North Wales should only be interested in traveling to other parts of Wales - historical, economical and family ties to North West England or the real capital city London be damned.

the 16.30 ferry arrival would rarely make the 16.50 train from my observations. (unless it is late) the next departure,17.30 to Shrewsbury, that I was referring to in my post is a 2 car 158. This only requires change at Chester as an incoming voyager is split to form the 19.35 to Euston.

I have checked tickets on the 1855 on many an occasion. It may not be an official connection, but it's a very popular one nine the less.

 

[PHILIPE]

Looking forward to see the franchise details when they crawl out into the open in May. Wondering what will happen re traction as there is no sign that anything has been done yet by the Welsh Government in obtaining more trains. I'm writing this on hearing the news that GWR are due to receive 19 x 769s (ATW expecting 5 in the Summer) next Spring. Just come out of the blue.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Looking forward to see the franchise details when they crawl out into the open in May. Wondering what will happen re traction as there is no sign that anything has been done yet by the Welsh Government in obtaining more trains. I'm writing this on hearing the news that GWR are due to receive 19 x 769s (ATW expecting 5 in the Summer) next Spring. Just come out of the blue.

Or the spin to justify giving Arriva an extension

 

[berneyarms]

Looking forward to see the franchise details when they crawl out into the open in May. Wondering what will happen re traction as there is no sign that anything has been done yet by the Welsh Government in obtaining more trains. I'm writing this on hearing the news that GWR are due to receive 19 x 769s (ATW expecting 5 in the Summer) next Spring. Just come out of the blue.

Not quite out of the blue Philipe.

It was discussed at length here starting three weeks ago!
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/heathrow-express-gwr-contract.162470/

 

[Parallel]

Or the spin to justify giving Arriva an extension

I’m starting to think this would be the best decision. If Arriva get a 3 year extention, the focus would be getting the 150s (+mk3s?) DDA compliant and obtaining other stock. There would also be less pressure on whichever bidder won, and more time for the WG to work out what they actually want to do and which projects will be perused first.

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

I’m starting to think this would be the best decision. If Arriva get a 3 year extention, the focus would be getting the 150s (+mk3s?) DDA compliant and obtaining other stock. There would also be less pressure on whichever bidder won, and more time for the WG to work out what they actually want to do and which projects will be perused first.

"more time for the WG to work out what they actually want to do and which projects will be perused first"


Seriously?? None of this has come as a shock or been rushed, they have had years to get it all in order and failed miserably by burying their heads in the sand and hoping it will go away!!

 

[ATW158Xpress]

Looking forward to see the franchise details when they crawl out into the open in May. Wondering what will happen re traction as there is no sign that anything has been done yet by the Welsh Government in obtaining more trains. I'm writing this on hearing the news that GWR are due to receive 19 x 769s (ATW expecting 5 in the Summer) next Spring. Just come out of the blue.

They were rumours going about GWR for around a month about receiving 769 since they announced they won the contract to run 12 of there 45 387’s on Heathrow Express service.

 

[gareth950]

Or the spin to justify giving Arriva an extension

Don't worry Gareth, it will be a world class, transformative extension.

 

[Parallel]

"more time for the WG to work out what they actually want to do and which projects will be perused first"


Seriously?? None of this has come as a shock or been rushed, they have had years to get it all in order and failed miserably by burying their heads in the sand and hoping it will go away!!

I feel that most other alternatives will see them making more of a mess.

 

[gareth950]

We won't even know the full extent of the 'winning' bidder's plans when it is announced. TfW are announcing their 'preferred bidder' next month, but then the bidder has to undertake a detailed survey of the Valley lines over the summer, to see if their plans are feasible, before contracts are finally signed and agreed in late summer / early autumn.

 

[Gareth Marston]

We won't even know the full extent of the 'winning' bidder's plans when it is announced. TfW are announcing their 'preferred bidder' next month, but then the bidder has to undertake a detailed survey of the Valley lines over the summer, to see if their plans are feasible, before contracts are finally signed and agreed in late summer / early autumn.

Had some students on their summer holidays going around taking photos of stations on the Cambrian last summer on behalf of MTR.

 

[Dai Corner]

We won't even know the full extent of the 'winning' bidder's plans when it is announced. TfW are announcing their 'preferred bidder' next month, but then the bidder has to undertake a detailed survey of the Valley lines over the summer, to see if their plans are feasible, before contracts are finally signed and agreed in late summer / early autumn.

How can they 'prefer' a bidder whose plans may not be feasible?

Words fail me!

 

[PHILIPE]

Not quite out of the blue Philipe.

It was discussed at length here starting three weeks ago!
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/heathrow-express-gwr-contract.162470/

Agreed. Contracts were signed Tuesday night and finishing touches to the deal were due to be finalised yesterday prior to public announcement.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Don't worry Gareth, it will be a world class, transformative extension.

I know were just belly aching on this forum and in reality the Cambrian will be getting a full hourly service on the mainline using brand new Stadler Flirts with specially configured seating/windows for use on scenic lines and everyone will live happily ever after...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

We won't even know the full extent of the 'winning' bidder's plans when it is announced. TfW are announcing their 'preferred bidder' next month, but then the bidder has to undertake a detailed survey of the Valley lines over the summer, to see if their plans are feasible, before contracts are finally signed and agreed in late summer / early autumn.

That might be the case for the metro side, but I would have thought the franchise contract could be closed fairly quickly.
That's assuming the ITT was prescriptive, of course, which it might not be.
The new franchisee will need 3 months minimum to take over from ATW.

 

[craigybagel]

Or the spin to justify giving Arriva an extension

It would be the best option by far, but it would mean the WAG would have to admit they'd screwed up their running of the competition, and that's not likely to happen - unless they can somehow find a way to palm off all the blame on to Westminster.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It would be the best option by far, but it would mean the WAG would have to admit they'd screwed up their running of the competition, and that's not likely to happen - unless they can somehow find a way to palm off all the blame on to Westminster.

Teddies will be flying then- I'm sure the spin team at the Bay have been working hard on this already. Everything that goes wrong in Wales is of course the fault of the Torys in Westminster....after all Carwyn has told us that continually since 2011!

 

[6Gman]

Like I've said many times before a heavily subsided franchise doesn't automatically mean all sections of all routes are loss making. It's not fair to deprive routes of investment simply because of how well the franchise does overall.

It was once reported having Chester-Warrington-Manchester and Hereford-Manchester in the Wales & Border franchise is reducing the average subsidy per passenger mile/KM and having a Wales only franchise would mean a significantly higher average subsidy per passenger mile/KM.

Well, in the absence of any other evidence I would suspect that the railway west of 6G is at least as heavily subsidised as the average.

 

[6Gman]

Really a London train should meet all ferries, that is the primary demand for ferry passengers.

But if they barely fill a 158 how does one justify a 5car Voyager?

 

[Bletchleyite]

But if they barely fill a 158 how does one justify a 5car Voyager?

The Voyager will pick up London passengers from along the way too.

 

[gareth950]

It would be the best option by far, but it would mean the WAG would have to admit they'd screwed up their running of the competition, and that's not likely to happen - unless they can somehow find a way to palm off all the blame on to Westminster.

I'm curious why you think this would be the best option, as I know from previous posts that you are based outside of South Wales. Aside from the obvious crisis of getting trains compliant for 2020, and delaying (or postponing) light rail on the Valleys, what else would it achieve?

EDIT: I've answered my own Q haven't I? Getting the entirety of Wales' train fleet 2020 ready in 15 months is enough for any TOC to be getting on with.

 

[Chester1]

2020 problem can only be solved now by derogations until light rail conversion is completed. Cascaded pacers can cover 150s going for upgrade and 5 x 769s should hopefully no more than 18 months late! Now GWR have ordered 19 the chances of getting extra by 2020 are very low. Without some pacers remaining past 2020 there will not be enough. Replacing 15 x 142s and 15 x 143s with 5 x 769 and 23 (ex Northern) 144s would be a modest increase in capacity 19 coaches and limit the number of non compliant units. 153s are another unnecessary problem, there long term replacements will obviously be 150s but nowhere near enough of them to go around.