Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[td97]

2020 problem can only be solved now by derogations until light rail conversion is completed.

I think you're forgetting a small company called Vivarail have a vast supply of freshly refurbished PRM-compliant stock, which I'm sure they'd be delighted to lease to the next W&B franchise holder.

 

[craigybagel]

Teddies will be flying then- I'm sure the spin team at the Bay have been working hard on this already. Everything that goes wrong in Wales is of course the fault of the Torys in Westminster....after all Carwyn has told us that continually since 2011!

Indeed, I'm sure that there is already a plan in place to blame Westminster if anything goes wrong - although given how long it took for the power to award the franchise to be sent over to Cardiff it's probably fair to say that Westminster isn't entirely without blame in the problems that have happened already.

I'm curious why you think this would be the best option, as I know from previous posts that you are based outside of South Wales. Aside from the obvious crisis of getting trains compliant for 2020, and delaying (or postponing) light rail on the Valleys, what else would it achieve?

EDIT: I've answered my own Q haven't I? Getting the entirety of Wales' train fleet 2020 ready in 15 months is enough for any TOC to be getting on with.

With what were widely seen as the two most competent bids having withdrawn we're left with two bidders of last resort. Given the importance of this franchise, and the problems caused by the previous franchisee being tied into a too long zero growth contract, I'd rather see the process started again, and done properly, then a long term bodge job given to a company that won by default.

 

[Rhydgaled]

2020 problem can only be solved now by derogations until light rail conversion is completed.

I think it all depends on whether the class 769 plan, which was supposed to see the 150s made PRM compliant, comes off. If we assume that the 150s, 175s and 158s will all be compliant by the deadline, and two 142s are (indirectly) seen off by the 769s, the franchise will be left with the following non-compliant stock:

• 13x class 142
• 15x class 143
• 8x class 153
• 3x mark 3 set

Due off lease by 2020 are 14x class 156 and 16 class 170s (both from Anglia and ScotRail) and possibly an unknown number of 185s (22 sets are expected off-lease but not all prior to the deadline). If, as I hope, the new franchisee has secured a lease on those 156s the 153s can be sent away and (by cascading 150s) the 142 fleet reduced to 10 units. I think the supposedly available 170s total 45 vehicles, which would have to replace 50 Pacer vehicles. The number of units might not quite add up, but I expect the number of seats will given that 170s have longer carriages than Pacers. That just leaves the mark 3s; but that's a small fleet to derrogate (until mark 4s are available to replace them?)

If Wales does take these though, EMT are stuck with their 17 class 153s and 15 class 156s (although the latter may be compliant, are they?), so somebody is going to be in trouble. Maybe we will see ex-London Underground stock with pantographs and batteries after all (and, as long as they fit a toilet and restrict them to the Merthyr/Aberdare-Barry-Bridgend route*, that might even be a releif).

* I pick that one because I think the 6-car routes (Treherbert & Rhymney to Penarth) should be electrified in-full as a priority then get some modern 3-car unit-end-gangwayed EMUs (379s and 458s spring to mind as unit-end-gangwayed and coming off-lease, but the formations would need reshuffling) to run in pairs on those routes. Maybe fit batteries to those two so that (as single 3-car sets) they could run Cardiff-Cheltenham and Maesteg - Ebbw Vale too.

We don't know if widespread light rail conversion is planned; I'm still metaphorically crossing my figures that heavy-rail electrification will go ahead (though sadly due to cost it probably won't be the entire ValleyLines network; but maybe they'll play a long game and have a (slowly) rolling programme). I may be remembering incorrectly, but wasn't there a press release promising that the valleys would remain available for freight?

 

[gareth950]

Indeed, I'm sure that there is already a plan in place to blame Westminster if anything goes wrong - although given how long it took for the power to award the franchise to be sent over to Cardiff it's probably fair to say that Westminster isn't entirely without blame in the problems that have happened already.

Still no official word on whether Westminster and Network Rail have agreement with TfW to transfer ownership and control the 'Core' Valley lines. Although that doesn't surprise me.

With what were widely seen as the two most competent bids having withdrawn we're left with two bidders of last resort. Given the importance of this franchise, and the problems caused by the previous franchisee being tied into a too long zero growth contract, I'd rather see the process started again, and done properly, then a long term bodge job given to a company that won by default.

I agree, however there is too much at stake for Ken Skates and TfW here. If things don't turn out as planned ready for October, the reputation of both will be in tatters. Opposition parties will go nuts. What Wales focussed media we have will go nuts. The national press will paint it as incompetent Labour unable to manage the railways.
I think Skates, Jones and TfW would rather award a sub-standard, botched job franchise than allow the whole thing to collapse. Politically there's too much at stake for them. Even though Jones is highly likely to be gone as First Minister within 18 months - it'll be the next leader's and economy secretary's problem.

 

[gareth950]

We don't know if widespread light rail conversion is planned; I'm still metaphorically crossing my figures that heavy-rail electrification will go ahead (though sadly due to cost it probably won't be the entire ValleyLines network; but maybe they'll play a long game and have a (slowly) rolling programme). I may be remembering incorrectly, but wasn't there a press release promising that the valleys would remain available for freight?

The Valleys are to remain available for freight, which makes the light rail plans all the more mind boggling. Unless freight runs only at night, but then when will engineering and maintenance be done?

 

[Rhydgaled]

The Valleys are to remain available for freight, which makes the light rail plans all the more mind boggling. Unless freight runs only at night, but then when will engineering and maintenance be done?

No freight on the Coryton branch. Even if the WAG have specified that light-rail stock must be ordered (and because of their stupid plan to keep the ITT secret we cannot be sure) it doesn't necessarily mean that they have ordered conversion of the whole network.

Tram-trains working Taffs Well - Coryton - Heath - on street - Cardiff Bay, with convertion of Heath-Coryton to light-rail standards and a light-rail extension from Coryton to Taffs Well, would meet any requirement for there to be some light-rail and street-running capability without ruining the service to the Heads Of The Valleys or blocking freight.

 

[gareth950]

No freight on the Coryton branch. Even if the WAG have specified that light-rail stock must be ordered (and because of their stupid plan to keep the ITT secret we cannot be sure) it doesn't necessarily mean that they have ordered conversion of the whole network.

Tram-trains working Taffs Well - Coryton - Heath - on street - Cardiff Bay, with convertion of Heath-Coryton to light-rail standards and a light-rail extension from Coryton to Taffs Well, would meet any requirement for there to be some light-rail and street-running capability without ruining the service to the Heads Of The Valleys or blocking freight.

Absolutely everything I have read, and I mean everything, suggests that TfW want to hive off the Valley lines and convert the whole lot to light rail, finishing up with street running in central Cardiff, as trams will most likely not be able to terminate in the platforms at Cardiff Central.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Still no official word on whether Westminster and Network Rail have agreement with TfW to transfer ownership and control the 'Core' Valley lines. Although that doesn't surprise me.



I agree, however there is too much at stake for Ken Skates and TfW here. If things don't turn out as planned ready for October, the reputation of both will be in tatters. Opposition parties will go nuts. What Wales focussed media we have will go nuts. The national press will paint it as incompetent Labour unable to manage the railways.
I think Skates, Jones and TfW would rather award a sub-standard, botched job franchise than allow the whole thing to collapse. Politically there's too much at stake for them. Even though Jones is highly likely to be gone as First Minister within 18 months - it'll be the next leader's and economy secretary's problem.

We've seen this with many other things "face" and gaining control over things from Westminister are the two big themes of Welsh Labour under Carwyn Jones. They will happily saddle the Cardiff suburban network with a sub optimal bodge for decades to come as long as they can get more powers, they will proclaim much greatness and argue black is white rather than accept any legitimate criticism. Unfortunately for the people of Cardiff and South Wales they have managed to bring their brand of politics onto the railway.

 

[gareth950]

Indeed, I'm sure that there is already a plan in place to blame Westminster if anything goes wrong - although given how long it took for the power to award the franchise to be sent over to Cardiff it's probably fair to say that Westminster isn't entirely without blame in the problems that have happened already.

With what were widely seen as the two most competent bids having withdrawn we're left with two bidders of last resort. Given the importance of this franchise, and the problems caused by the previous franchisee being tied into a too long zero growth contract, I'd rather see the process started again, and done properly, then a long term bodge job given to a company that won by default.

Also, how much compensation would be due to the remaining bidders if the award process was scrapped and who would pay it? Westminster or Cardiff Bay?
But like Gareth has said, this is not about what is best for the rail network in Wales, but what is best for Welsh Labour, and specifically Ken Skates and Carwyn Jones.

 

[transmanche]

The Valleys are to remain available for freight, which makes the light rail plans all the more mind boggling. Unless freight runs only at night, but then when will engineering and maintenance be done?

Light rail and freight happily coexist on the route between Sunderland and Pelaw Junction. The two are not mutually exclusive.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

We've seen this with many other things "face" and gaining control over things from Westminister are the two big themes of Welsh Labour under Carwyn Jones. They will happily saddle the Cardiff suburban network with a sub optimal bodge for decades to come as long as they can get more powers, they will proclaim much greatness and argue black is white rather than accept any legitimate criticism. Unfortunately for the people of Cardiff and South Wales they have managed to bring their brand of politics onto the railway.

But like Gareth has said, this is not about what is best for the rail network in Wales, but what is best for Welsh Labour, and specifically Ken Skates and Carwyn Jones.

Well, the wheel turns and Carwyn Jones leaves his job in the autumn.
He will be still be there to preside over the franchise competition winner however.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-43851468

Carwyn Jones says he will stand down as Wales' first minister in the autumn

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well, the wheel turns and Carwyn Jones leaves his job in the autumn.
He will be still be there to preside over the franchise competition winner however.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-43851468

Garyling might even fancy digging his heels in over a transferring powers over core valley lines knowing Carwyn will be toothless and not has any fight in him.

 

[gareth950]

Well, the wheel turns and Carwyn Jones leaves his job in the autumn.
He will be still be there to preside over the franchise competition winner however.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-43851468

Even more of a reason for the award process to be put on hold, so Arriva can get on with making the fleet 2020 compliant, and the new first minister can be responsible and accountable for the award of the new franchise and Metro, and can defend that decision at the 2021 Welsh elections.
Otherwise, the new FM will be able to get away with saying that the franchise wasn't awarded on their watch and so is nothing to do with them. Unless of course the new FM is Ken Skates, then I'll be emigrating.

 

[Domh245]

so Arriva can get on with making the fleet 2020 compliant

I would think that boat has sailed. 19 months to PRM their fleets that are staying long term past 2020 would be cutting it fine I would think, and that's before you consider where you are going to do the work - all of the usual places where that sort of work might get done are running close to capacity already, are they not?

 

[gareth950]

I would think that boat has sailed. 19 months to PRM their fleets that are staying long term past 2020 would be cutting it fine I would think, and that's before you consider where you are going to do the work - all of the usual places where that sort of work might get done are running close to capacity already, are they not?

So what's the solution? Inevitable derogations or bustitution?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well Carwyns departure will probably scupper the M4 Relief Road , he may not now be up for a fight to force it through and he will probably be counselled that a project this big should be a descion for the new FM.

So potentially good news for rail in Wales.

 

[craigybagel]

I think Skates, Jones and TfW would rather award a sub-standard, botched job franchise than allow the whole thing to collapse. Politically there's too much at stake for them. Even though Jones is highly likely to be gone as First Minister within 18 months - it'll be the next leader's and economy secretary's problem.

I don't know enough about Welsh politics to comment on the political side of it, but I do agree that I suspect the first sentence is what will come to pass. Hopefully by some miracle they manage to award a decent franchise but nothing I've seen so far is helping me to get my hopes up....

So what's the solution? Inevitable derogations or bustitution?

Just like the terms of the new franchise itself, nobody knows. Until then, stick your head in the sand and hope everything will go away....

 

[gareth950]

I don't know enough about Welsh politics to comment on the political side of it, but I do agree that I suspect the first sentence is what will come to pass. Hopefully by some miracle they manage to award a decent franchise but nothing I've seen so far is helping me to get my hopes up....

The announcement of Carwyn Jones' departure by the end of this year may change things or it may not. It all depends on what Jones wants his legacy for transport in Wales to be and what problems he wants to leave for his successor.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I think you're forgetting a small company called Vivarail have a vast supply of freshly refurbished PRM-compliant stock, which I'm sure they'd be delighted to lease to the next W&B franchise holder.

dismissed as politically unacceptable to have second hand London Underground stock some time back, VivaRail did try and hawk the concept and had a meeting with civil servants in Cardiff.

 

[gareth950]

dismissed as politically unacceptable to have second hand London Underground stock some time back, VivaRail did try and hawk the concept and had a meeting with civil servants in Cardiff.

But it's acceptable to have Pacers running in Wales beyond 2020 because Welsh Govt have had their heads in the sand over PRM modifications in Wales for the past 5 years........

 

[Gareth Marston]

We are sticking to our guns on the franchise announcement coming next month, so if there is a change of heart it will not look good, particularly if those involved were also now thinking about the top job after the summer.

We have been told that everything we fund from now on must be TfW branded compliant!

from a source

 

[gareth950]

So even trains outside the 'Metro' area will be TfW branded? That'll go down well with the DfT on cross border services.
'Those involved thinking about the top job' e.g. Ken Skates, who won't have a chance as he's been joined at the hip to Carwyn.

 

[daikilo]

So even trains outside the 'Metro' area will be TfW branded? That'll go down well with the DfT on cross border services.
'Those involved thinking about the top job' e.g. Ken Skates, who won't have a chance as he's been joined at the hip to Carwyn.

ATW current livery text does a fair job at suggesting they have Welsh connections, and DfT obviously don't disagree!

 

[krus_aragon]

ATW current livery text does a fair job at suggesting they have Welsh connections, and DfT obviously don't disagree!

They've been trundling to and from Birmingham, Manchester, etc. since 2011:


(Image from 2011 on nwrail.org.uk, showing Welsh Assembly Government name and logo on refurbished class 158)

 

[Gareth Marston]

They've been trundling to and from Birmingham, Manchester, etc. since 2011:


(Image from 2011 on nwrail.org.uk, showing Welsh Assembly Government name and logo on refurbished class 158)

It's more the grotty line speed of 70 mph between Shrewsbury And Wolverhampton , I can assure you those 158's shift on the Cambrian Mainline between Sutton Bridge Jnc and Talerddig.

 

[Gareth Marston]

So even trains outside the 'Metro' area will be TfW branded? That'll go down well with the DfT on cross border services.
'Those involved thinking about the top job' e.g. Ken Skates, who won't have a chance as he's been joined at the hip to Carwyn.

He needs 5 other AM's to nominate him.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Rhodri CLarks is floating locked out toilet Pacers for the Valleys in the latest Modern Railways.

 

[Domh245]

There's more to PRM-TSI compliance than just toilets

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

There is, but the toilets are where the cost is. Some bleepy noises on the doors and pretty shiny lights to open the doors won't cost much in the grand scheme of things or take long to fit.

 

[CardiffKid]

They've been trundling to and from Birmingham, Manchester, etc. since 2011:


(Image from 2011 on nwrail.org.uk, showing Welsh Assembly Government name and logo on refurbished class 158)

That's because the refurbishment was paid for by the (then WAG, since re-branded to) Welsh Government.

Nothing to do with the franchise. Similar to any building project funded/part funded by the EU saying so.