GEML franchise 2016

[Dave1987]

God help the local MP's, especially the Tory ones, if there is a direct award that includes little investment. MP's like Gummer have been saying continually that major investment is coming in the new franchise.

 

[Simon11]

Why would you need two years for a rebid? Why not take six months and allow the bidders to input the new assumptions into the financial models.

 

[hwl]

Why would you need two years for a rebid? Why not take six months and allow the bidders to input the new assumptions into the financial models.

DfT and their consultants migh not be able to handle the workload of multiple franchise bids at the same time with some big ones shortly.

The plans and models might have to be completely rebuilt as it might be harder to justify improvements in lower revenue environment...
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God help the local MP's, especially the Tory ones, if there is a direct award that includes little investment. MP's like Gummer have been saying continually that major investment is coming in the new franchise.

 

[387star]

Perhaps an add on to the 700 production line totao wipe out of 317s and a number of 321s

 

[northwichcat]

Perhaps an add on to the 700 production line totao wipe out of 317s and a number of 321s

317s won't be due for withdrawal until after the end of the next franchise, so it's more likely Anglia will take on all the 317s for fleet consistency, unless Anglia need something that's 3/5/6 car or that accelerates faster (both of which were needed for Northern which is why they are getting new CAF EMUs alongside 319s despite more 319s being available.)

 

[MrPIC]

317's are 35 years old currently, and are only getting older and more unreliable (GA's most unreliable stock statistically). Plus they are not DDA compliant, with the Demonstrator unit being even more unreliable and essentially shelved. I'd wager largely on them being withdrawn during the new franchise and replaced, maybe not with brand new stock, maybe with refurbed and retractioned 321's, but I'm quite confident their days are well and truly numbered.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Perhaps an add on to the 700 production line totao wipe out of 317s and a number of 321s

Haha, the fantasy world you live in is nice

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Why would you need two years for a rebid? Why not take six months and allow the bidders to input the new assumptions into the financial models.

Which particular Brexit model do you recommend they use?
The one that says "no significant change", or the one that says "no foreigners (or their products)".
The risk is entirely with the government until they tell us how it is going to work, and what the impact on the economy will be.

 

[northwichcat]

317's are 35 years old currently, and are only getting older and more unreliable (GA's most unreliable stock statistically). Plus they are not DDA compliant, with the Demonstrator unit being even more unreliable and essentially shelved. I'd wager largely on them being withdrawn during the new franchise and replaced, maybe not with brand new stock, maybe with refurbed and retractioned 321's, but I'm quite confident their days are well and truly numbered.

150s are getting DDA mods and they are only slightly younger than the 317s, with EMUs expected to remain in service for longer - note how old the 313s, 507s and 508s are.

 

[Dave1987]

150s are getting DDA mods and they are only slightly younger than the 317s, with EMUs expected to remain in service for longer - note how old the 313s, 507s and 508s are.

The first of the refurbed 321's hasn't done a day in service yet so we don't know how (un)reliable they will be.

 

[HH]

Good old dusty bins have been reliable since the day they rolled out the factory door. Take more than a refurb to change that.

 

[northwichcat]

The first of the refurbed 321's hasn't done a day in service yet so we don't know how (un)reliable they will be.

I imagine that's more down to all the crews having to be briefed on the changes, opposed to installing a CIS making the train unreliable!
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Good old dusty bins have been reliable since the day they rolled out the factory door. Take more than a refurb to change that.

Indeed. In the Northern area we keep talking about unreliable 319s but forget the other EMUs in the Northern fleet (including 321s and 322s) generally have a very good reliability record.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Lets hope that the 321 refurb is as good as the One FGE did in their days and not as bad as the one NX did to the ones that came from outside the franchise.

 

[Domh245]

Take more than a refurb to change that.

How about a retractioning as well as fitting new systems like AC. At that point just about the only things carried over are the bodywork and the bogies

 

[samuelmorris]

Good old dusty bins have been reliable since the day they rolled out the factory door. Take more than a refurb to change that.

I'm pretty sure I remember hearing that was not the case when they were first introduced...
In any case, the modifications made are sufficiently substantial that the original reliability of the units (which, from memory I seem to recall only being 20-30k MTIN over the past few years anyway?) is pretty much irrelevant.

 

[HH]

I'm pretty sure I remember hearing that was not the case when they were first introduced...
In any case, the modifications made are sufficiently substantial that the original reliability of the units (which, from memory I seem to recall only being 20-30k MTIN over the past few years anyway?) is pretty much irrelevant.

I know one of the people who introduced the Class 321s and he thinks that your memory is faulty...

Of course there is no guarantee of reliability following major mods, although it is claimed that reliability will be improved. I was jokingly responding to the use of refurb. A bit too subtle I fear.

 

[Alfie1014]

Well that's Parliament risen until 5th September, my monies on an extension, (hopefully not up to the full 7 periods though), announced in the next week or two.

With the rolling stock clock ticking and the PRM TSI/RVAR/DDA deadline of 31/12/19 getting closer I wouldn't however put any money on the whole AGA fleet being fully compliant by that date!

I did watch the new Minister performing at the Transport Select Committee this week and had to say he seemed to be sincere and well versed with his brief, that said as ever the proof will be in the pudding as decisions come out of a Great Minster House.

 

[43074]

Well that's Parliament risen until 5th September, my monies on an extension, (hopefully not up to the full 7 periods though), announced in the next week or two.

There's no reason an announcement couldn't be made after parliament have risen, as someone's already pointed out the announcement of the West Coast franchise in 2012 was in mid August. More critical is that the clock is ticking towards the end of the current franchise, so I'm sure there is still an announcement imminent, whether it's an extension or a new franchise remains to be seen.

 

[dk1]

If before Summer Recess is a real issue then it may have been sorted today & an announcement at 07:00 tomorrow to the Stock Market.

According to an internal AGA staff email today an announcement from DfT is expected in the first half of August. That is getting very tight for an October start.

 

[Sleepy]

Latest from our rumour mill is NX are not in the running ! Let's all pray this is true......

 

[Wivenswold]

Latest from our rumour mill is NX are not in the running ! Let's all pray this is true......

Phew. Ideally the winner will be British Rail Eastern Region with a surprise, late bid.

 

[colchesterken]

How about Network South East with Chris Green as chairman.

 

[HH]

How about NWR with the Fat Controller as Chairman.

 

[387star]

AGA desperately needs more diesels right? so those 8 from Overground would fit in nicely

The 153s won't be compliant but is there a way to make them back into 155s with a compliant toilet?

317/6s I can see being kept but any 317/5s and/8s will surely go

And EMUs for London to Norwich is an obvious one presumably something like the 444 with end doors

 

[J-2739]

And EMUs for London to Norwich is an obvious one presumably something like the 444 with end doors

Or an EMU like the class 397?

 

[DasLunatic]

AGA desperately needs more diesels right? so those 8 from Overground would fit in nicely

The 153s won't be compliant but is there a way to make them back into 155s with a compliant toilet?

317/6s I can see being kept but any 317/5s and/8s will surely go

And EMUs for London to Norwich is an obvious one presumably something like the 444 with end doors

As a daft idea, could the Breda V250s be imported to the UK and used on the InterCity services? They're able to run under 25kV, able to be re-geared back to 110mph and it'd probably be cheaper than building brand new trains. Just get them to Harwich via the Hook of Holland, and they're on GA rails.

There's also nineteen of them as compared to the fifteen locomotive sets, so it'd be possible to run the third Norwich service without having to use the 321s/360s.

 

[samuelmorris]

The way things are going at present on West Anglia I'm half-expecting the 317/5s and /8s to be replaced with additional 387s, the 317/6s left as they are. East Anglia side, I'm half expecting article 50 to prompt PRM-TSI to be abandoned shortly prior to the deadline, allowing the Mk3 stock (as well as who knows, potentially Pacers in other parts of the country) to be allowed to continue into the 2020s, but expect they will eventually be replaced, either with something very similar to 802s, or something similar to 387s, depending on the transport industry's fortunes a few years outside of EU membership. At the present time I would be greatly surprised if much was done with the existing 321 and 360 fleet other than continuation of the Renatus project.

 

[J-2739]

As a daft idea, could the Breda V250s be imported to the UK and used on the InterCity services? They're able to run under 25kV, able to be re-geared back to 110mph and it'd probably be cheaper than building brand new trains. Just get them to Harwich via the Hook of Holland, and they're on GA rails.

There's also nineteen of them as compared to the fifteen locomotive sets, so it'd be possible to run the third Norwich service without having to use the 321s/360s.

The size of them are way beyond our small loading gauge, and what's the point bringing falty, decript trains from another network when you can buy newer trains and at a whole a lower cost?

 

[NotATrainspott]

As a daft idea, could the Breda V250s be imported to the UK and used on the InterCity services? They're able to run under 25kV, able to be re-geared back to 110mph and it'd probably be cheaper than building brand new trains. Just get them to Harwich via the Hook of Holland, and they're on GA rails.

There's also nineteen of them as compared to the fifteen locomotive sets, so it'd be possible to run the third Norwich service without having to use the 321s/360s.

In testing on the Dutch rail network, it was found that parts had actually fallen off the V250 trains. If tested on the GB rail network, there wouldn't be many parts of them left attached once they had hit every bridge and platform edge on the line. They're built to the UIC loading gauge and cannot be used on the domestic UK network.

There are very few trains in use outside of GB that would fit our loading gauge. There are passenger trains in use in South Africa and Thailand which were based on GB designs, while some of the GB-compatible Eurostar sets ended up in use on domestic TGV services. Compatible locomotives aren't as uncommon since there's no real reason to redesign a GB locomotive for use elsewhere.

 

[PeterC]

As a daft idea, could the Breda V250s be imported to the UK and used on the InterCity services? They're able to run under 25kV, able to be re-geared back to 110mph and it'd probably be cheaper than building brand new trains. Just get them to Harwich via the Hook of Holland, and they're on GA rails.

There's also nineteen of them as compared to the fifteen locomotive sets, so it'd be possible to run the third Norwich service without having to use the 321s/360s.

Assuming no technical issues (I am sure that they are legion in reality) remember that Britain is "special" so railway solutions can't be bought off the shelf.