Electrification & Rolling Stock Cascade Impact Review

[LNW-GW Joint]

I have to say I'm not sure you can be as certain as to say "If Hull is electrified it'll likely happen after April 2019". If Hull Trains proposal is approved soon (ie in the Budget), then the delivery plan sees electric services starting at around the turn of 2016/2017. NR LNE are also considering bringing the committed east of Leeds work forward, perhaps to as early as to allow electric services Leeds to Selby, before to York!

The first electric train ran on new NW wires 4.5 years after Andrew Adonis approved the scheme.
They haven't even started on GW wiring yet, authorised at the same time.
How does the proposed Hull scheme get done so quickly?
Why should it take precedence over HLOS projects?
I expect NR will have to resignal the line first.

 

[YorkshireBear]

The first electric train ran on new NW wires 4.5 years after Andrew Adonis approved the scheme.
They haven't even started on GW wiring yet, authorised at the same time.
How does the proposed Hull scheme get done so quickly?
Why should it take precedence over HLOS projects?
I expect NR will have to resignal the line first.

While i agree, it is because it is an add on scheme rather than a stand alone scheme.

I think the main thing that will determine when it gets done is as you say. The re-signalling plans for the line.

 

[northwichcat]

I have to say I'm not sure you can be as certain as to say "If Hull is electrified it'll likely happen after April 2019". If Hull Trains proposal is approved soon (ie in the Budget), then the delivery plan sees electric services starting at around the turn of 2016/2017. NR LNE are also considering bringing the committed east of Leeds work forward, perhaps to as early as to allow electric services Leeds to Selby, before to York!

Don't Hull Trains want track access rights guaranteed for the long term as part of that deal while ORR seem reluctant to do that for any open access operator?

Last December DfT announced that

A joint taskforce will explore where next for electrification in the North. The new taskforce will be made up of experts from Network Rail and the DfT and will involve train operators, local authorities including the Rail North consortium, the supply chain and local Members of Parliament. This group will provide the Transport Secretary with an interim report within 12 months setting out how schemes can be brought forward and their development accelerated.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/road-and-rail-projects-to-boost-local-and-regional-transport--2

Selby-Hull was one of 8 routes being examined as part of that. I'd be surprised if 'within 12 months' means there's an annoucement of more electrification for the North within 3 months of that release.

 

[IanXC]

The first electric train ran on new NW wires 4.5 years after Andrew Adonis approved the scheme.
They haven't even started on GW wiring yet, authorised at the same time.
How does the proposed Hull scheme get done so quickly?
Why should it take precedence over HLOS projects?
I expect NR will have to resignal the line first.

While i agree, it is because it is an add on scheme rather than a stand alone scheme.

I think the main thing that will determine when it gets done is as you say. The re-signalling plans for the line.

It gets done so quickly because it is a relatively straightforward project, and there is a dedicated consortium proposing to construct it (the proposal is not an HLOS project), rather than relying on wider Network Rail resources (although these are likely to be in the area in any case due to Selby-Leeds works being accelerated). Hull Trains, as promoters of the scheme, describe the timetable as:

...if First Hull Trains was to get the go ahead in 2014, and work starting in 2015/6, then electric rolling stock could be running on the route to Hull during 2017

http://www.hulltrains.co.uk/about-us/news/2013/03/electrification/

The signalling is potentially an issue, however, for the most part its Mechanical in any case, so a limited amount of immunisation work could possibly over come this issue.

Don't Hull Trains want track access rights guaranteed for the long term as part of that deal while ORR seem reluctant to do that for any open access operator?

Last December DfT announced that

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/road-and-rail-projects-to-boost-local-and-regional-transport--2

Selby-Hull was one of 8 routes being examined as part of that. I'd be surprised if 'within 12 months' means there's an announcement of more electrification for the North within 3 months of that release.

The DfT did indeed say that in December. Its also true to say that the Secretary of State said on 25 February:

TRANSPORT secretary Patrick McLoughlin has described talks to link Hull to the electric rail network as 'very constructive'.

Speaking after the meeting, Mr McLoughlin told the Mail: “I am well aware of the desire for electrification of the route to Hull and recently met with First Hull Trains to discuss a potential scheme.

“My officials are now working with the operator and wider industry to explore the possibility of a more detailed study into the [Hull Trains] scheme.”

http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/Hook...constructive/story-20705545-detail/story.html

So in all reality I think we have to see Hull's inclusion in the wider study as a backstop - ensuring that, should the HT scheme not go ahead, Hull's case will be worked up. Certainly the local MPs demanded the meeting with the SoS precisely because they were concerned the wider study would delay the project. We've heard nothing more about that so it seems likely those fears are unfounded.

In terms of ORR supposed reluctance, discussions have already included the ORR so if they're were not inclined to agree then why would HT be proceeding? From their previously determination it seems they are willing to grant longer access rights, however they require that they are accompanied by investment securing wider benefits for the network. For a case of longer access rights, look no further than GNER's (Alliance) application for London-Edinburgh services, £300m+ investment with a request for 15 year rights.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Just in passing, the DfT has failed to meet its own target of issuing the ICEC ITT by the end of February.
I wonder if this issue is one of the reasons?

My concern is not about the project per se, but its timing.
NR are not due to start TP East wiring until March 2016 (according to the Dec CP5 project update), finishing Dec 2018 (both dates only indicative).
It seems to take an age to start boring holes with all the technical issues to solve in advance.
Gilberdyke-Ferriby resignalling is included in the CP5 plan as part of the ROC migration work, but I haven't seen a schedule posted.
I should think wires in semaphore areas are a no no these days.
They have certainly been replaced on the Chat Moss/Wigan lines.

 

[WatcherZero]

As regards Hull timing its natural, they are proposing private funds which means they are not bound by the timetable of annual NR income. Its like being a first time buyer rather than in a housing chain, completion much faster.

 

[IanXC]

Just in passing, the DfT has failed to meet its own target of issuing the ICEC ITT by the end of February.
I wonder if this issue is one of the reasons?

My concern is not about the project per se, but its timing.
NR are not due to start TP East wiring until March 2016 (according to the Dec CP5 project update), finishing Dec 2018 (both dates only indicative).
It seems to take an age to start boring holes with all the technical issues to solve in advance.
Gilberdyke-Ferriby resignalling is included in the CP5 plan as part of the ROC migration work, but I haven't seen a schedule posted.
I should think wires in semaphore areas are a no no these days.
They have certainly been replaced on the Chat Moss/Wigan lines.

It's certainly a plausible reason, but it would seem to have only a very minor impact on the ICEC franchise.

Timing wise I can see the comparison but I think we have to take the previously suggested timescales with a pinch of salt. LNE have proposed bringing Leeds-Selby forward significantly (annoyingly I can't find the reference now, despite much searching), from memory it may have been for completion by the end of 2015.

I would agree that signalling is the biggest unknown. That said, if the Goole & Selby, and Hull panels were brought forward for transfer to the ROC, they potentially don't have the same headcount implications for NR as the signalers are likely to be able to travel to York, rather than the natural reduction strategy which is required elsewhere. So a reordering of schemes could achieve this within the wider programme and resources available.

 

[Class 170101]

As regards Hull timing its natural, they are proposing private funds which means they are not bound by the timetable of annual NR income. Its like being a first time buyer rather than in a housing chain, completion much faster.

The biggest risk I guess could be if HT requires any NR staff and machines to carry out their project then the dates could slip or whether Hull Trains could manage the project on its own, contracting staff and machines itself.

The other risks are with a limited pool of contractors and machines to complete all the projects plus whether TPE, Northern and EC will accept disruptive possessions to complete the job and the compensation they would want to run buses instead of trains.

 

[Beveridges]

I should think wires in semaphore areas are a no no these days.

Why?

There are still electrified areas with semaphores.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Why?
There are still electrified areas with semaphores.

I can't think of any in recently-wired AC land (plenty of old ones in DC territory of course).
I'd be surprised if wires went up without upgrading the signalling, as has just happened at Huyton/Prescot.

 

[IanXC]

In any case, isn't Gilberdyke to Ferriby due for resignalling in 2016 anyway?

 

[Bald Rick]

As regards Hull timing its natural, they are proposing private funds which means they are not bound by the timetable of annual NR income. Its like being a first time buyer rather than in a housing chain, completion much faster.

Except NR plans for the next five years are funded and confirmed, and in many cases authorised with contracts let. And there are only so many electrification resources in the country, including many imported from abroad when supply<demand. These are coordinated nationally. So unless HT are planning to recruit and train a cadre of linesmen, supervisors and engineers (entirely possible, but expensive), they will have to fight it out with all the other projects.

 

[Beveridges]

I can't think of any in recently-wired AC land (plenty of old ones in DC territory of course).
I'd be surprised if wires went up without upgrading the signalling, as has just happened at Huyton/Prescot.

Maybe not in recent projects, but the Peterborough area still boasts semaphores with overhead AC lines.

 

[fgwrich]

Maybe not in recent projects, but the Peterborough area still boasts semaphores with overhead AC lines.

As does I think, a few lines in the West London areas?

 

[Drsatan]

As does I think, a few lines in the West London areas?

The Greenford branch still has semaphore when I traveled down the branch in December 2012

 

[Class 170101]

The Greenford branch still has semaphore when I traveled down the branch in December 2012

No wires though. Acton Wells to Kew Bridge I believe still has them but again no wires or 3rd Rail.

 

[WatcherZero]

Except NR plans for the next five years are funded and confirmed, and in many cases authorised with contracts let. And there are only so many electrification resources in the country, including many imported from abroad when supply<demand. These are coordinated nationally. So unless HT are planning to recruit and train a cadre of linesmen, supervisors and engineers (entirely possible, but expensive), they will have to fight it out with all the other projects.

Network Rail lets out geographic framework contracts to the private sector to perform the work which the private engineering companies bid to carry out (winning contractors then have exclusive rights to work in those areas though may well in practise subcontract some of it to other firms). its spend is profiled over the five year period as alongside the permission to borrow two thirds of its income comes from the Tocs in Fixed and Variable Track Access charges, it cant carry out the work faster without increasing borrowing. Private financing however allows them to tender the work to any contractor who may be willing to do the work earlier during gaps in their work programs without additional resources being required, if they are willing to pay a small premium the firms would even likely prioritise it over their NR contracts.

Best Example of this would be the £250m Chiltern Evergreen 3 project, while the up front costs were paid by NR and recouped through a 30 year lease of the line it circumvented the usual control period plans and was delivered much faster than if it had been a NR project through its usual financing.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No wires though. Acton Wells to Kew Bridge I believe still has them but again no wires or 3rd Rail.

I'm out of date on the NLL but I suspect the Acton Wells signalling on the 1990s wired section (Willesden to Acton Central) is now colour light.
The other box is Bollo Lane in 3rd rail land.
Acton Main Line-Willesden wiring is also being done as part of the GW scheme.

If I'm not mistaken, electrification is considered (rightly) a major route upgrade, and that triggers all sorts of modern group standards (eg level crossings, cabling, fencing etc).
And there's clearance work to do as well (bridges, stations).

 

[Class 170101]

I'm out of date on the NLL but I suspect the Acton Wells signalling on the 1990s wired section (Willesden to Acton Central) is now colour light.
The other box is Bollo Lane in 3rd rail land.
Acton Main Line-Willesden wiring is also being done as part of the GW scheme.

The bit between Acton and Kew Bridge has a gap (a mile or so) in the 3rd Rail from the NLL to the SW Lines.

 

[The Ham]

Could the lack of semaphores on AC lines due to the fact that it is cheaper to replace them at the same time as there is already a lot of digging, running of cables and erecting structures anyway?

It presumably also means that the signals can be places so as to not cause visibility issues rather than locating the overhead cables so that the signals can still be seen.

 

[WatcherZero]

Thought it was generally done during electrification as it was cheaper to upgrade signalling than to insulate existing signalling.

 

[Class377/5]

319 moving dates from FCC.

319361 01/05/14
319362 01/08/14
319363 01/10/14
319364 01/11/14
319365 01/02/15
319366 01/02/15

Likely to be the cascade of units from the arrival of the 377/2 in May not the 387 cascade tho heard conflicting information about that.

 

[158722]

319 moving dates from FCC.

319361 01/05/14
319362 01/08/14
319363 01/10/14
319364 01/11/14
319365 01/02/15
319366 01/02/15

Likely to be the cascade of units from the arrival of the 377/2 in May not the 387 cascade tho heard conflicting information about that.

Very interesting. Raises a few questions. 377/2 only available if 377/7s start in service? 319s off to where? Northern is what we are assuming, so where does that leave plans for Manchester Airport-Liverpool going electric?

 

[Mikey C]

319 moving dates from FCC.

319361 01/05/14
319362 01/08/14
319363 01/10/14
319364 01/11/14
319365 01/02/15
319366 01/02/15

Likely to be the cascade of units from the arrival of the 377/2 in May not the 387 cascade tho heard conflicting information about that.

That's very slow, why would you move 1 unit in May, then nothing for 3 months, then 1 unit, then nothing for 2 months etc?
Is that because the first unit is a trial unit for refurbishment/clearance work?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

That's very slow, why would you move 1 unit in May, then nothing for 3 months, then 1 unit, then nothing for 2 months etc?
Is that because the first unit is a trial unit for refurbishment/clearance work?

They've evidently been prised out of FCC by a very strong set of DfT tongs.
It would be very sad if a Thameslink passenger could not get a seat (sorry, exits left ).

 

[Class83]

In light of the announcement of the TPE 170s to Chiltern, how likely is it that an additional 9 319s could be released to Northern by March next year. Use these to run the LIV-MIA, LIV-WGN and any other diesel under wires northern operations, then reverse cascade stock until there are 9 158s to replace the 170s on TPE.

 

[Beveridges]

Could the lack of semaphores on AC lines due to the fact that it is cheaper to replace them at the same time as there is already a lot of digging, running of cables and erecting structures anyway?

It presumably also means that the signals can be places so as to not cause visibility issues rather than locating the overhead cables so that the signals can still be seen.

Peterborough is the only location on the network that I know of that has semaphores in an electrified area.

Is Peterborough the only location remaining that has semaphores in an electrified area ?

I struggle to even find locations which used to have semaphores in overhead wired areas. The only one I can think of is the Woodhead route going off an old video.

 

[YorkshireBear]

319 moving dates from FCC.

319361 01/05/14
319362 01/08/14
319363 01/10/14
319364 01/11/14
319365 01/02/15
319366 01/02/15

Likely to be the cascade of units from the arrival of the 377/2 in May not the 387 cascade tho heard conflicting information about that.

Thought 6 had to go in may 2014?

 

[Manchester77]

Thought 6 had to go in may 2014?

Only 4 because the other 2 will cover for C6 overhauls

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm out of date on the NLL but I suspect the Acton Wells signalling on the 1990s wired section (Willesden to Acton Central) is now colour light.
The other box is Bollo Lane in 3rd rail land.
Acton Main Line-Willesden wiring is also being done as part of the GW scheme.

You are out of date Sir, Bollo Lane and Kew East Jn (with its semaphores) were abolished a couple of years ago. It's all colour light controlled from Acton Wells.