Electrification & Rolling Stock Cascade Impact Review

[158722]

December 2013; Southern/FCC class 377 orders
Event; Delivery of class 377/6s and entry into service.
Effect; Delivery of 26x class 377/6s to Southern by December 2013. Principal cascade involves 24x class 456s to move to SWT under initiative to provide more 10-car services, which also includes the 458/460 Project to provide six extra 5-car class 458s and lengthening of the existing 30 sets to 5-car.
Issues; None Noted.

May 2014; North West Electrification
Event; Manchester-WCML link wired, 10x class 350/4s introduced on Manchester-Edinburgh & Glasgow.
Effect ; 7x class 185s released for additional Newcastle to Liverpool services. No cascade to other TOCs.
Issues; None Noted.

Summer 2014; EGIP Scotland
Event; Glasgow QS-Cumbernauld, Motherwell-Cumbernauld & Glasgow C-Whifflet wired
Effect; 6x DMU released, but retained by FSR for Commonwealth Games and Ryder Cup events then potentially 3x class 158 to replace Fife loco haul turn from March 2015 (End of current franchise). EMUs available from existing slack within FSR fleet.
Issues; Possible that FSR could release up to 3x class 158 in March 2015, but may be retained for Borders line re-opening in Dec 2015.

Autumn 2014; Redditch branch loop
Event; Extra loop between Barnt Green and Redditch on City Line, permitting 3 tph (vice 2).
Effect; 2 extra EMU diagrams, possibly 4 extra units at peaks. 3x new class 350/3s to LM in 2014 on Walsall-Wolves services with 3x class 323s moving to City Line. Other 7x 350/3s for additional Euston services.
Issues; None noted.

May 2014; Southern/FCC class 377 orders
Event; Delivery of class 377/7s.
Effect; Delivery of 8x dual voltage class 377/7s during Spring 2014 to Southern for Easy Croydon-MKC services. Potentially 6x class 377/2s to move to FCC, allowing up to 6x class 319s to be displaced from FCC to Northern by May 2014.
Issues; EMU cascade moves not confirmed, but suggested in Thameslink Souther & Great Northern (TSGN) combined franchise ITT.

Dec 2014; North West Electrification
Event; Liverpool LS to Manchester Airport, Liverpool LS to Wigan NW & Liverpool LS to Warrington BQ plus Liverpool LS to (Ordsall Lane) & Manchester Victoria routes wired.
Effect; At least 12x DMU released (3, 4, 2 & 3 diagrams respectively), although likely to be more (up to 16) as some diagrams are currently pairs. Current Liverpool LS to Stalybridge hourly services, replaced by half-hourly to Manchester Victoria (5 diagrams?) and/or Liverpool LS to Manchester Airport frequency doubled to half-hourly. Potential for Liverpool LS-Blackpool services to be cut back to Preston, allowing EMU operation (extra 4 diagrams required).
Issues; Availability of EMUs not confirmed, assumed 6x class 319s ex-Thameslink available, but potentially more (unconfirmed) units required. Service pattern changes not confirmed.

May 2015; Bromsgrove Electrification
Event; Barnt Green – Bromsgrove electrification and extension of City Line.
Effect; 1 extra EMU diagram required, possibly 2 extra units at peaks. 3x class 350/3s due to enter service with LM in 2014 to cover Walsall-Wolves services with 3x class 323s moving to City Line.
Issues; Possible delay in electrification and new Bromsgrove station.

May 2015; Borders Railway Scotland
Event; Edinburgh to Tweedbank re-opening
Effect; Around 6 additional DMU diagrams required for services on re-opened line, likely to be sourced internally from units displaced by Cumbernauld and Whifflet electrification.
Issues; On-going construction work, opening date slippage potential.

May to December 2015; TSGN class 387 orders
Event; Delivery of class 387s.
Effect; Delivery of 29x class 387s to FCC to displace similar number of class 319s to Northern. Deployment of class 387s on Thameslink temporary until full delivery of class 700s up to December 2018, with possibility of class 387s moving to Great Western upon replacement.
Issues; EMU cascade moves not confirmed, but Northern class 319 fleet potentially up to 35 units. Follow on order of 140 vehicles (35x 4-car sets) not confirmed.

Summer 2015/Spring 2016; Bicester to Oxford (Chiltern Evergreen 3)
Event; Bicester chord (Chiltern line), opening to Water Eaton (Summer 2015) and Oxford (Spring 2016)
Effect; New through services from Marylebone to Oxford via Bicester operated by class 168s, made available by provision of extra loco-hauled sets for Marylebone-Birmingham services.
Issues; Additional locos & stock not confirmed, assumed class 67 hired from DBS or new build locos. DB Regio have 13 Mk3 RFM, 12 Mk3 FO/TSO & 13 DVT stored for refurbishment plus 5 TSO in commuter set.

Through 2016 to December 2016; Thameslink class 700 orders & Thameslink Programme
Event; Delivery of first class 700 units for class 319 and 377/387 replacement and expansion of Thameslink Programme to Great Northern, South Eastern and additional Southern routes.
Effect; Progressive delivery of 60x 8-car class 700/0s and 55x 12-car class 700/1, totalling 1,140 vehicles. Delivery expected to progressively displace the remaining 51x class 319s from Thameslink /FCC, of which up to around 35 should have been displaced prior to this by deliveries of class 377/7s and 387s in 2014/15, along with loaned Southern class 377/2s (9x units), 377/5s (23 units) and eventually the new ‘temporary’ fleet of class 387s (29 units).
December 2016 expected to see 10x class 387s displaced by class 700s, potentially to Great Western Thames, along with 36x ‘AC’ units and 8x ‘DC’ units. These latter units not identified in TSGN ITT and class 319s/377s could be included in either group, AC or DC.
Given expansion of the Thameslink network, an as yet unclear impact & reduction of fleet requirements will occur on Great Northern services currently operated by FCC, currently class 317 (12x units), 321 (13x units) and 365 fleets (40 units), whilst the class 313 (44x units) are specifically excluded from fleet cascade notes in the TSGN ITT. The class 377/2s and 377/5s (32 units) are likely to return to Southern services, with an unclear impact on the class 313/2s (19x units) and class 442s (24x units), whilst the class 387s are likely to move to Great Western. Further impacts on service patterns (see below) should reduce unit requirements for both South Eastern and Southern.
• Brighton to Bedford semi-fast, 12-car All day
• Brighton to Bedford stopping, 12-car All day
• Three Bridges via Redhill to Peterborough semi-fast, 12-car All day (plus 1tph KX-PB operated by East Coast vice FCC/TSGN)
• Horsham via Redhill to Cambridge semi-fast, 12-car All day
• East Grinstead to Bedford semi-fast, 12-car Peak only
• Caterham to St. Albans stopping, 8-car All day
• Tattenham Corner to Welwyn Garden City stopping, 8-car All day
• Tunbridge Wells via Tonbridge to Bedford semi-fast, 12-car Peak only
• Ashford International via Tonbridge to Luton semi-fast, 12-car Peak only
• Maidstone East via Catford to Welwyn Garden City stopping, 8-car All day
• Sevenoaks via Catford to Luton stopping, 8-car All day
• Bellingham via Catford to St. Albans stopping 8-car All day

Issues; Building & testing of class 700 units and associated works within the Thameslink Programme subject to date slippage potential.

May 2016; North West Electrification
Event; Blackpool North to Preston
Effect; At least 4x DMU released (likely to be more as some diagrams are currently pairs) if service pattern of Liverpool LS-Blackpool direct not revised when Liverpool LS-Wigan wired in Dec 2014.
Issues; Availability of EMUs not confirmed, assumed batch of 29 class 319s ex-Thameslink, displaced by TSGN class 387s by December 2015, whilst service pattern changes not confirmed.

Dec 2016; EGIP Scotland
Event; Edinburgh-Glasgow via Falkirk High wired.
Effect; Up to 16x class 170s released for internal cascade within ScotRail, potentially releasing equivalent number of class 156s and 158s for transfer to England.
Issues; New build EMUs required, nothing currently out to tender.

Dec 2016; Gospel Oak to Barking
Event; Gospel Oak to Barking to be electrified.
Effect; 8x LOROL class 172s released for cascade, potentially Chiltern or LM (as existing class 172s operators). Significant impact on freight with increased potential use of electric locos on through services.
Issues; New build EMUs required as existing class 378 fully deployed, nothing currently out to tender.

Dec 2016; North West Electrification
Event; Oxenholme to Windermere
Effect; At least 1x class 185 released. Possible transfer to Northern franchise and operated by class 319s.
Issues; Availability of replacement EMUs not confirmed, assumed 2 extra class 319s ex-Thameslink. Service pattern changes including possible franchise/operator alterations not confirmed.

Dec 2016; North West Electrification
Event; Preston-Manchester Victoria-Stalybridge & Guide Bridge-Stalybridge routes wired.
Effect on Northern; Blackpool North to Manchester Victoria & Preston to Hazel Grove services converted to EMU operations, with at least 4 diagrams respectively on each route above, with up to 10x DMUs displaced, but likely to be more as some diagrams are currently pairs, plus peak time extras.
Effect on TPX; Manchester Airport to Blackpool North services (4 diagrams) able to be operated by EMUs. Possible transfer to Northern franchise and operated by class 319s.
Issues; Availability of EMUs not confirmed, assumed additional class 319s ex-Thameslink, of which up to 44x units are expected to be displaced by class 700s between Dec 2015 and Dec 2016. Service pattern changes not confirmed. Northern class 319 fleet potentially up to around 45 units.

Dec 2016 through 2017; Great Western Thames
Event; Paddington to Reading (incl. branches), Oxford and Newbury routes wired.
Effect; Paddington to Newbury & Oxford including Greenford, Marlow, Windsor & Henley branches services converted to EMUs, progressively replacing up to 46 class 165/166 as well as replacement by IEPs on Hereford & Banbury services during 2017. Around 11x 3-car 165 retained at Reading for Gatwick Airport (7 diagrams) & Basingstoke (2 diagrams). Class 165 requirement reduced in 2019 due to Electric Spine project with Basingstoke electrified.
Issues; Availability of EMUs not confirmed (around 55 to 60 4-car units required, given CrossRail will replace some local services as far as Maidenhead), assumed class 377/8s ex-Thameslink/Southern (29 units confirmed as to be built, further optional batch of 35) and service pattern changes not confirmed.

2017 onwards; Great Western IEP orders
Event; Delivery of first batch of class 800/801 IEP units for HST and class 180 replacement.
Effect; 36x 5-car bi-mode class 800s and 21x 9-car electric only class 801 IEPs, totaling 369 vehicles. Delivery expected to progressively displace 5x class 180s (likely to Grand Central) and up to around 40x HST sets. Residual fleet of HST sets retained for Paddington to Exeter, Plymouth and Penzance services.
Issues; IEP factory construction and building/testing of IEP units all subject to date slippage potential.

Dec 2016 through 2017; Great Western Bristol & Oxford
Event; Reading to Bristol via Swindon routes wired, along with Reading to Oxford (see above section).
Effect; Paddington to Bristol High Speed services able to operate using electric trains, resulting in start of HST replacement by first batches of IEP units, along with Paddington to Hereford and Cheltenham services where IEP bi-modes replace mixture of HST sets and class 180s as well as class 166s. HST fleet able to be gradually reduced and withdrawn or transferred, 5x class 180s displaced to Grand Central potentially, whilst class 166s retained with GW and moved to West division (based at Exeter & Bristol).
Issues; On-going electrification work, IEP factory construction and building/testing of IEP units all subject to date slippage potential.

December 2016 through to December 2017; Thameslink class 700 orders & Thameslink Programme
Event; Delivery of further class 700 units for class 319 and 377/387 replacement and expansion of Thameslink Programme to Great Northern, South Eastern and additional Southern routes.
Effect; Progressive delivery of 60x 8-car class 700/0s and 55x 12-car class 700/1, totalling 1,140 vehicles. December 2017 expected to see 17x ‘AC’ units and 25x ‘DC’ units displaced by class 700s. These latter units not identified specifically in TSGN ITT, but expected to be 25x class 377s (possibly 377/1s) sub-leased to SouthEastern.
Issues; Building & testing of class 700 units and associated works within the Thameslink Programme subject to date slippage potential.

Dec 2017; Chase Valley (Walsall to Rugeley TV)
Event; Walsall to Rugeley Trent Valley route wired.
Effect; Four DMU diagrams replaced, namely 2 diagrams of 153/170 combos & 2x 170/6 in peak (only 3 diagrams off-peak). Cascade within LM with 2x 170/6 replacing 1x 153+170/5 Hereford & 1x 153+170/5 Snow Hill, then 2x 170/5 replace 2x 150 (one on Bedford-Bletchley & one Hereford). Other 2x 170/5 replace 2x 153 diagrams, one Bedford-Bletchley & one Coventry-Nuneaton. LM release 3x 150s and 8x 153s. (Current Diagrams; LM150 (2 from 3); 1 Bedford-Bletchley, 1 Hereford; LM 153 (6 from 8); 1 Cov-Nun, 1 Bed-Bletch, 1 (+170/5 Hereford), 1 (+170/5 Snow Hill), 2 +170/5 Rugeley); LM323 (23 from 26); 14x Cross City all-day & 5x peak 6-car extras, 1x extra Four Oak, 3x Wolves-Walsall.)
Issues; No available capacity within existing LM 323 fleet and 4 extra diagrams required. Platform extensions on Bedford-Bletchley required for operation by displaced class 170s, possibly included in East West upgrade of line, but use of class 170 temporary until line electrified.
Possible start of cascade of 17 class 323s from Northern (replaced by similar number of class 319s ex-Thameslink). 4 diagrams for Rugeley, 5 to replace class 350s on Wolves-Walsall services (allowing 7x 321s to be displaced elsewhere), 2 units for future Coventry-Nuneaton electrification with balance used to increase number of 6-car services. Northern class 319 fleet up to around 60 to 63 units, LM have all 43 class 323s.

Dec 2017; Midland Mainline
Event; Bedford to Kettering & Corby (MML) routes wired
Effect; First stage of Midland Mainline project with up to 3x 222s released for internal cascade within EMT.
Issues; Additional EMUs required, nothing currently defined but potential extension of Thameslink to Corby or creation of ‘CorPan’ EMT stopping service from St. Pancras to Corby, which in the future could be combined with Leicester & Nottingham stopping services, using ex-FCC/Southern class 377s.

Dec 2017 through to Dec 2018; Great Western Bristol to Cardiff & Swansea
Event; Extension of GW electrification from Bristol to Cardiff (by Dec 2017) and Swansea (by Dec 2018).
Effect; Paddington to Cardiff then onwards to Swansea High Speed services able to operate using electric trains, resulting in on-going HST replacement by IEP units. HST fleet able to be gradually reduced and withdrawn or transferred, leaving residual fleet for Paddington to Devon & Cornwall services, which in turn could be eventually displaced completely by ex-Midland mainline/EMT class 222s, which may become available from 2019/20 onwards due to IEP deployment on the ECML. No future, if any, defined for displaced HST fleet.
Issues; On-going electrification work, IEP factory construction and building/testing of IEP units all subject to date slippage potential.

December 2017 through to December 2018; Thameslink class 700 orders & Thameslink Programme
Event; Delivery of final class 700 units for class 319 and 377/387 replacement and expansion of Thameslink Programme to Great Northern, South Eastern and additional Southern routes.
Effect; Progressive delivery of 60x 8-car class 700/0s and 55x 12-car class 700/1, totalling 1,140 vehicles. December 2018 expected to see 10x class 387s displaced by class 700s, potentially to Great Western Thames and 11x ‘DC’ units also displaced. These latter units not identified specifically in TSGN ITT, but expected to be residual units of the 80x class 319s and 32x class 377/2 & 377/5s, operated by Thameslink at May 2014. This appears to leave 14x unknown units to de displaced, potentially GN class 317s, 321s or 365s.
Issues; Building & testing of class 700 units and associated works within the Thameslink Programme subject to date slippage potential.

2018 onwards; East Coast IEP orders
Event; Delivery of first batch of class 800/801 IEP units for HST replacement.
Effect; 13x 9-car & 10x 5-car bi-mode class 800s and 12x 5-car electric only class 801 IEPs, totaling 227 vehicles. Delivery expected to progressively displace existing fleet of 13x HST sets used on services beyond limit of electrified network.
Issues; IEP factory construction and building/testing of IEP units all subject to date slippage potential. No future, if any, defined for displaced HST fleet.

Dec 2018; EGIP Scotland
Event; Edinburgh & Glasgow to Dunblane, Alloa & Falkirk Grahamston routes wired
Effect; Up to 18x 158s & 170s released for internal cascade within ScotRail, potentially releasing equivalent number of 156s and 158s for transfer to England.
Issues; New build EMUs required, nothing currently out to tender.

Dec 2018; Glasgow South Clyde
Event; Glasgow Central (from Muirhouse) to East Kilbride & Barrhead routes to be electrified.
Effect; At least 6x class 156s (possibly up to 10, as pairs used on several peak hour diagrams) released for internal cascade within ScotRail or transfer to England. Project leaves 12x remaining Glasgow-South West DMU diagrams as 4x Stranraer, 2x Kilmarnock, 6x Carlisle/Newcastle (or Carlisle hourly).
Issues; New build EMUs required (minimum 6 diagrams), nothing currently out to tender. Electrification date subject to confirmation and slippage potential due to other projects.

Dec 2018; Trans-Pennine
Event; Stalybridge to Leeds & Neville Hill to Colton Junction & Selby routes electrified.
Effect on TPX; Core Liverpool & Manchester to York & Newcastle services able to be operated by EMUs with Middlesbrough (7 diagrams) and Hull (5 diagrams) remaining class 185 operated. Service/franchise changes expected with Scarborough services either moving to Northern with Blackpool-York services extended to Scarborough or Northern’s Blackpool-York absorbed into TPX. Under both options, TPX EMUs work an extra Manchester Airport-York, vice existing Scarborough. TPX also required to retain a further 12 class 185 diagrams; Manchester to Cleethorpes (7) and Barrow (3), giving a total of 22 diagrams to cover with around 30 units to allow for 6-car sets at peak times. Around 21x class 185s and 9 class 170s displaced.
Effect on Northern; Stopping services between Stalybridge to Leeds and York/Selby able to be operated by EMUs. Major restructuring of timetable, but 6 DMU diagrams able to replaced by EMUs. Possible cascade of around 21 class 185s & 9 class 170s to displace & cascade similar number of class 156s/158s on Scarborough/York-Blackpool, S&C, Copy Pit & Leeds-Nottingham/Sheffield fasts.
Issues; Service pattern changes including possible franchise/operator alterations not confirmed.
TPX; New build EMUs required (minimum of around 25 diagrams), nothing currently out to tender.
Northern; Availability of replacement EMUs not confirmed, potentially 7 extra class 319s ex-Thameslink or 7 class 321s ex-LM. Possibility of up to 8 additional class 319s ex-Thameslink to allow replacement of class 321/9s and 322s as well. Northern class 319 fleet up to around 76 to 79 units, if 321/9s & 322s replaced.

2019 onwards; East Coast IEP orders
Event; Delivery of second batch of class 801 IEP units for class 91/MK4 replacement.
Effect; 30x 9-car electric only class 801 IEPs, totaling 270 vehicles. Delivery expected to progressively displace existing fleet of 31x class 91s and 30x sets of Mk4 stock used on London to Leeds, Edinburgh & Glasgow. Potential displacement of class 91s and Mk4 stock to Midland mainline services.
Issues; IEP factory construction and building/testing of IEP units all subject to date slippage potential.

May 2019; EGIP Scotland
Event; Holytown to Midcalder route wired, allowing Edinburgh to Glasgow Central via Shotts services to be worked by EMUs.
Effect; At least 6x class 156s & 158s released for internal cascade within ScotRail or for transfer to England.
Issues; New build EMUs required (minimum 6 diagrams), nothing currently out to tender.

Dec 2019 onwards; Midland Mainline
Event; Kettering to Leicester, Nottingham & Derby routes wired during 2019, onwards Derby to Sheffield in 2020 (and expected Sheffield to Wakefield/Leeds – not confirmed).
Effect; Second and third stages of Midland Mainline project with entire fleet of 27x class 222s (143 vehicles) available for cascade elsewhere and replacement of HST fleet (9 sets), totalling 227 vehicles. Potential deployment of displaced class 222 sets on Great Western to replace residual HST sets used on Paddington to Devon & Cornwall services.
Issues; Additional electric trains required, nothing currently defined but potential deployment of class 91s & Mk4 sets, displaced on East Coast by second IEP batch due in 2019. 30 rakes of 8x Mk4s (2 FO, 6 SO) with buffets removed from existing sets and mini-buffet/Cafe created in an SO, gives requirement for 240 vehicles, plus spares & 30 DVTs and 31 class 91s. 30 mk4 sets able to cover 25 diagrams, sufficient to allow 2 tph to Nottingham, 2 tph to Sheffield (and eventually Leeds) with a 5th tph to Derby. Note that Corby may have passed to Thameslink in Dec 2017 or will require to be covered by a small fleet of EMUs, along with Leicester-Nottingham stoppers. A 2 tph St Pancras-Corby semi-fast service (minimum 4 diagrams), combined with a 2 tph Kettering-Leicester-Nottingham stopping service (minimum 6 diagrams), could be covered by 15x class 377/2s ex-Thameslink, displaced by class 700.
Electrification date subject to confirmation and slippage potential due to other projects.

DMU Displacements; ScotRail
May 2014 EGIP Cumbernauld & Whifflet - 6x 158 displaced; Retained ScotRail for Fife/Borders line.
Dec 2016 EGIP E&G - 12 to 16x 170 displaced;
• 8x 170 replace 8x 158 in Fife, resulting in 8x 158 to NOR;
• 6x 170 replace 6x 158 in Fife, replacing 6x 156 on Shotts route resulting in 6x 156 to NOR.
Dec 2018 Glasgow SW – 10 to 12x 156 displaced, resulting in 14x 156 displaced to NOR.
Dec 2018 EGIP Stirling – 18 to 20x 158 & 170 displaced;
• 9x 170 replace 10x 156 on WHL resulting in 10x 156 to NOR & 10x 158 replace 10x 156 on GSW resulting in 20x 156 to NOR.
May 2019 EGIP Shotts – 6 to 10x 158 displaced;
• 8x 158 replace 8x 156 on GSW, resulting in 8x 156 to EMT.
Results – 99 DMUs Retained; 48x 156 and 8x 158 displaced
9x 170 (170470-478) for WHL, 25x 158 (158701-725) for IS/North, 15x 158 (158726-741) for GSW & 50x 170 (170393-396/401-434/450-461) for Express/Fife/Borders.
Proposals require route clearance work on GSW and WHL for 158s and/or 170s. Sufficient units are available to deploy class 158s on GSW and class 170s on WHL, or reverse situation with 158s on the WHL and 170s on the GSW. Note that based on the current/planned timetable & timings, Glasgow-Kilmarnock requires 2 diagrams, Glasgow-Carlisle/Newcastle (or Carlisle Hourly) requires 6 diagrams whilst Glasgow/Kilmarnock-Ayr-Girvan-Stranraer requires 4 diagrams. Total of 12 GSW diagrams. West Highland from Glasgow QS-Oban, Fort William & Mallaig requires a minimum of 6 RETB diagrams. Anniesland covered by mix of WH and Express 170s.

DMU Displacements; Northern
Dec 2014 North West Liverpool-Manchester/Wigan - 12 to 16x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10 Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
May 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool - 4x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 4 Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 North West Preston-Blackpool – 10 to 12x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10 Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2016 EGIP E&G - 8x 158 & 6x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 8x 158 ex-SCR to Neville Hill, which replace 8x 150 NH, displacing 8x NH 142 for Scrap;
• 6x 156 ex-SCR to Newton Heath, which replace 5x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap
Dec 2017 LM Rugeley - 3x 150 from LM displaced to NOR;
• 3x 150 ex-LM to Newton Heath, allowing transfer of 4x 156 to Anglia to replace 5x 153;
• 5x Anglia 153 displaced back to NOR temporarily.
• 8x 153 ex-LM to Newton Heath, which replace 6x Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2018 EGIP Stirling – 20x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 20x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 22x Heaton 142 for Scrap;
Dec 2018 Glasgow SW – 14x 156 from ScotRail displaced to NOR;
• 14x 156 ex-SCR to Heaton, which replace 14x Heaton 142 for Scrap.
Dec 2018 Trans-Pennine - 6x 142 displaced, 30x 170 & 185 displaced from TPX to Northern;
• 21x 185 ex-TPX displace 28x 156/158 on York-Blackpool/S&C/Copy Pit/Leeds-Notts, allowing displacement of 23x 144 & 7x 155 for Scrap;
• 9x 170 ex-TPX displace 9x 156/158 on York-Blackpool/S&C/Copy Pit/Leeds-Notts, allowing displacement of 30x 153 (including 5x Anglia & 8x ex-LM units) for Scrap.
Current fleet of 79 class 142s. 43x Newton Heath units sees 24x displaced by NW electrification by Dec 2016 and 19x displaced by 156/158 ex-SCR by Dec 2017, whilst Heaton’s 36x 142s are replaced by 156 ex-SCR by Dec 2018.
All 23x class 144s, 17x class 153s (plus extra 5x Anglia & 8x ex-LM units) and all 7x class 155s displaced by cascaded ex-SCR 156/158 & ex-TPX 170/185 by Dec 2018.
Units received are 3x LM class 150s, 48 ex-SCR 156s, 8 ex-SCR 158s, 9x ex-TPX 170s and 21 ex-TPX 185s, whilst around 38 diagrams are replaced by EMUs due to electrification.

DMU Displacements; Great Western
Dec 2016 onwards GW Thames – 46x class 165/166 displaced from GW Thames to GW West;
• 15x 2-car 165 replace 8x 143 & 14x 153 for Scrap;
• 5x 2-car 165 & 5x 3-car 165 displace 10x class 150 to ATW;
• 21x 3-car 166 displace 21x 158, which in turn, displace 28x class 150 to ATW;
• 38x 150/1 and 150/2 received by ATW displace 15x 142, 15x 143 and 8x 153 to Scrap.
Balance by Dec 2018 for GW DMU fleet sees Thames region retain 11x 3-car class 165 for Reading-Gatwick & Basingstoke whilst West receives 46x class 165/166s (totalling 116 vehicles, replacing 110 existing class 142, 150 & 153 vehicles) and retains all 21x class 158s (reformed back to 20x 2-car sets and 1x 3-car). Significant gauge clearance required for 165/166 on West routes.
Dec 2016 onwards GW High Speed – IEP deliveries of 36x 5-car bi-mode class 800s and 21x 9-car electric only class 801, totalling 369 vehicles.
• Up to around 40x HST sets and 5x class 180s progressively displaced from Bristol, Hereford & Cheltenham services (Dec 2016), Cardiff (Dec 2017) & Swansea (Dec 2018).
• 5x class 180s likely to be displaced to Grand Central.
• Residual fleet of HST sets retained for Paddington to Exeter, Plymouth & Penzance services until 2019/20, when able to be gradually withdrawn as displaced completely by ex-Midland mainline/EMT class 222s. The class 222s should be available due to cascaded class 91 & Mk4 stock made available due to IEP deployment on the ECML.
• Balance by 2020 for GW High Speed fleet sees 36x 5-car bi-mode class 800s, 21x 9-car electric only class 801 and 27x class 222 sets in various 4, 5 or 7-car formations. No future, if any, defined for displaced HST fleet.

DMU/HST Displacements; Others
Date Project No. Class Destination
May 2014 NW/WCML 7 185 Retained TPX
Dec 2016 Windermere 1 185 Retained TPX
Dec 2016 NW/Blackpool 4 185 Retained TPX
Dec 2016 Goblin 8 172 To Chiltern (Fleet expansion)
Dec 2017 Rugeley 3 150 To NOR > 4 156 to EA > 5 153 to NOR
8 153 To NOR
Dec 2017 MML/Corby 3 222 Retained EMT
Dec 2018 EC IEP 13 HST For Scrap
Dec 2018 TP 21 185 To NOR
9 170 To NOR
May 2019 EGIP/Shotts 8 156 To EMT > 17 153 > Scrap
2019/2020 MML/Sheff. 9 HST For Scrap
27 222 To GW

EMU Displacements;
Date Project No. Class Destination
May 2014 Southern 377 6 319 To Northern (displaced by class 377/7 > 377/2s)
Dec 2015 Thameslink 29 319 To Northern (displaced by class 387s)
Dec 2016 Thameslink 44 319 To Northern (36x AC & 8 DC units)
Dec 2016 Thameslink 10 387 To Great Western
Dec 2017 Thameslink 7 319 To Northern
Dec 2017 Thameslink 10 ? Unknown (317, 321 or 377)
Dec 2017 Thameslink 25 377 Sub-lease to SouthEastern
Dec 2018 Thameslink 11 ? Unknown (317, 321 or 377)
Dec 2018 Thameslink 19 387 To Great Western
Not defined 44 313 FCC Great Northern
Not defined 12 317 FCC Great Northern
Not defined 13 321 FCC Great Northern
Not defined 40 365 FCC Great Northern
Not defined 19 313/2 Southern
Not defined 24 442 Southern

Projects Not Analysed
• Bedford – Bletchley – Bicester - Oxford (East West Rail link) Dec 2017
• Maidenhead to Abbey Wood & Shenfield (CrossRail) Dec 2018
• Nuneaton to Coventry (Electric Spine) 2019/CP5
• Coventry to Leamington and Oxford (Electric Spine) 2019/CP5
• Southampton to Basingstoke - AC (Electric Spine) 2019/CP5
• Basingstoke to Reading (GW/Electric Spine) 2019/CP5
• Welsh Valleys 2020+/CP6

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Pretty good list.
Rose Grove = Hazel Grove
Not sure about Liverpool-Manchester Airport/Victoria both going to 2tph.

 

[northwichcat]

Pretty good list.
Rose Grove = Hazel Grove

Plus to add confusion to the long term future of that service as it is Network Rail have examined extending Hazel Grove terminators to one of Buxton, Chinley or Sheffield.

However, that doesn't mean one of the other 'South Manchester' electric services can't continue to Preston instead at a timetable recast e.g. Alderley Edge to Preston via Stockport.

 

[158722]

Pretty good list.
Rose Grove = Hazel Grove
Not sure about Liverpool-Manchester Airport/Victoria both going to 2tph.

I knew there would be things like that in there...! Will correct.

As commented on the Northern 317s thread, I thought I'd put these notes up as a general review of on-going plans. I don't for a minute expect that all of the details will be correct, hence I'll try to updaet any corrections or additions as plans become clearer over time.

 

[clc]

Thanks. The date for Holytown to Midcalder is 2019: http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/rail/rail-improvements/EGIP-2014

 

[WatcherZero]

MML electfication timetable is Corby 2017, Leicester, Derby and Nottingham 2019, Sheffield 2020.

 

[158722]

MML electfication timetable is Corby 2017, Leicester, Derby and Nottingham 2019, Sheffield 2020.

Thanks.

One other I noted is Acton to Willesden - this makes sense to be done within the Paddington to Reading, etc works up to December 2016, as opposed to by 2019/within CP5 as I have noted. Any more confirmed dates for this?

 

[swt_passenger]

The 458/460 merger provides SWT with 6 extra units. This also allows various knock on strengthening of SWT mainline services, in a similar way to the 456s...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Thanks.

One other I noted is Acton to Willesden - this makes sense to be done within the Paddington to Reading, etc works up to December 2016, as opposed to by 2019/within CP5 as I have noted. Any more confirmed dates for this?

It's supposed to be part of the GW 2016 Thames Valley work.
No passenger traffic at the moment though.

 

[D365]

The 458/460 merger provides SWT with 6 extra units. This also allows various knock on strengthening of SWT mainline services, in a similar way to the 456s...

456 transfer is confirmed. Hasn't been made clear by the OP 158722.

Aside from that, it looks good. I'm fairly well-versed in the situation encircling the Thameslink/Crossrail rolling stock and cascades, if interested. Now I'm just waiting for YorkshireBear to post his workings - wondering if I should join in with a 'brief' again
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

It's supposed to be part of the GW 2016 Thames Valley work.
No passenger traffic at the moment though.

Could this chord be adapted for use by Crossrail, connecting the GW Reliefs to the WC Slows? Or am I thinking of the wrong thing?

 

[tbtc]

Excellent list - should be a good to look back on in a decade and see all of the improvements listed!

There's going to be a lot of timetable rejigging and recasting over the rest of the 2010s, as stretches are electrified mile by mile - a lot of stock swapping around for a year or two - an interesting decade!

 

[158722]

It's supposed to be part of the GW 2016 Thames Valley work.
No passenger traffic at the moment though.

Thanks! List updated...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Could this chord be adapted for use by Crossrail, connecting the GW Reliefs to the WC Slows? Or am I thinking of the wrong thing?

Well, it would take you west-north from GW to LM - eg Reading-Watford.
The Crossrail link would go east-north through Old Oak Common.
The main purpose of the link at Acton is for through electric freight via the NLL from GW to GE/LTS.

 

[WatcherZero]

Re Acton question

Not seen a firm date for it only that it would be integrated into Great Western electrification which will be completed by 2017, but it is a GRIP 0 scheme so not very developed with the ORR PR13 review suggesting the Electric Spine schemes will need two years of development before their true costs and risks become known, ORR is heavily leaning on NR to bring Sheffield electrification forward a year and into CP5 suggesting it should be reprioritised above other projects.

 

[hwl]

Thameslink - Does the Diversion of trains from via London Bridge to via Herne Hill from 2014-2018 thus increasing the journey time (and thus more units required) mean that FCC won't be able to release any 319s until the 377/8 start to enter service rather than the last of the 377/6 or /7 mentioned in the OP?

 

[Bald Rick]

Thameslink - Does the Diversion of trains from via London Bridge to via Herne Hill from 2014-2018 thus increasing the journey time (and thus more units required) mean that FCC won't be able to release any 319s until the 377/8 start to enter service rather than the last of the 377/6 or /7 mentioned in the OP?

More units aren't required for the Herne Hill diversions. The number and type of units to be released by the new franchisee (and when) will no doubt be in the tender for the new franchise.

 

[The Ham]

Projects Not Analysed

• Basingstoke to Reading (GW/Electric Spine) 2019/CP5

In terms of traffic that uses this length there are a few trains to Newbury, Bedwyn, Plymouth and Cornwall which use a short length to just past Reading West (so those will only change when the relevant sections are wired up), otherwise it's XC services between Manchester and Bournemouth (with electric spine could become EMU's depending on how far OHLE reaches) 1tph, XC services between Newcastle and Southampton (still has gaps in the OHLE elsewhere until at least CP6) 0.5tph and GW service between Reading and Basingstoke 2tph.

As such, it is likely that if XC gets some EMU's for the Manchester service that would enable them to strengthen more of their services by using the free up Voyagers. Although nothing has been confirmed and it'll only be a small order until some of the other gaps in the XC network are wired up, which then makes it less likely to happen quickley (unless they can tag it onto someone elses order, GWML and/or MML 110mph EMU's?). It is likely that once the Voyagers come off lease that XC will try to run as many services with HST's (doing more as they retire form the GWML and ECML) until they can place a sizable order for EMU's, possibbly early in CP6.

The Reading/Basingstoke service will change to EMU although it only frees up 2 DMU's (mostly 3 coach sets I think). However I would expect that whatever EMU's are used on the GWML would also be used on this line to save having a micro fleet. Hampshire County Council have a disire to see a new station in the north eastern part of Basingstoke (Chineham), which can only be achived with the better acceleration of EMU's, so expect that to follow soon after electrification.

I'd have thought it was a good section to try and wire up quickly as the stabling and depots at Reading are already wired up so the trains have all they need without having to wire up more to get to a depot, it's recently had works on it to improve the gauge clerances for freight (i.e. less work required to clear it for OHLE) and it also frees up 2 DMU's which can then be used to strengthen other services without too much difficulty.

 

[Eagle]

Hampshire County Council have a disire to see a new station in the north eastern part of Basingstoke (Chineham), which can only be achived with the better acceleration of EMU's, so expect that to follow soon after electrification.

As well as the station at Green Park (Reading BC are still pushing this).

 

[158722]

In terms of traffic that uses this length there are a few trains to Newbury, Bedwyn, Plymouth and Cornwall which use a short length to just past Reading West (so those will only change when the relevant sections are wired up), otherwise it's XC services between Manchester and Bournemouth (with electric spine could become EMU's depending on how far OHLE reaches) 1tph, XC services between Newcastle and Southampton (still has gaps in the OHLE elsewhere until at least CP6) 0.5tph and GW service between Reading and Basingstoke 2tph.

As such, it is likely that if XC gets some EMU's for the Manchester service that would enable them to strengthen more of their services by using the free up Voyagers. Although nothing has been confirmed and it'll only be a small order until some of the other gaps in the XC network are wired up, which then makes it less likely to happen quickley (unless they can tag it onto someone elses order, GWML and/or MML 110mph EMU's?). It is likely that once the Voyagers come off lease that XC will try to run as many services with HST's (doing more as they retire form the GWML and ECML) until they can place a sizable order for EMU's, possibbly early in CP6.

The Reading/Basingstoke service will change to EMU although it only frees up 2 DMU's (mostly 3 coach sets I think). However I would expect that whatever EMU's are used on the GWML would also be used on this line to save having a micro fleet. Hampshire County Council have a disire to see a new station in the north eastern part of Basingstoke (Chineham), which can only be achived with the better acceleration of EMU's, so expect that to follow soon after electrification.

I'd have thought it was a good section to try and wire up quickly as the stabling and depots at Reading are already wired up so the trains have all they need without having to wire up more to get to a depot, it's recently had works on it to improve the gauge clerances for freight (i.e. less work required to clear it for OHLE) and it also frees up 2 DMU's which can then be used to strengthen other services without too much difficulty.

You've hit on two projects which I've either not got my head around yet (as they are rather large ones!) or not much has been announced, in terms of impact on train fleets and services - namely the Electric Spin and Great Western (and a bit of CrossRail I suppose!)

At the end of CP5, the core XC network will still have a few gaps in it, Birmingham to Derby and Sheffield to Leeds or Doncaster. My guess is that the Voyagers will continue for a couple of years until these gaps are plugged - then what?! Another large batch of Hitachi IEPs following on from the final EC builds in 2019?

As for the GW, I'm not sure how what services will be absorbed by CrossRail, but I'd imagine a uniform-ish fleet of outer-suburban EMUs will cover Paddington, Reading, Basingstoke, Oxford and Newbury. Will the 29 377/8s be enough for all these, including the Marlow, etc branches? Certainly not in the case of Marlow and the Bourne End restrictions.

 

[D365]

As for the GW, I'm not sure how what services will be absorbed by Crossrail, but I'd imagine a uniform-ish fleet of outer-suburban EMUs will cover Paddington, Reading, Basingstoke, Oxford and Newbury. Will the 29 377/8s be enough for all these, including the Marlow, etc branches? Certainly not in the case of Marlow and the Bourne End restrictions.

Remember there is an option for 140 additional vehicles in the latest Southern order, likely to be formed into 35 additional 4-car units. My thoughts are that a number of these could also serve MML 'CorPan', leaving the rest for GW semi-fasts and fasts with Crossrail taking over the slower services.

 

[158722]

Remember there is an option for 140 additional vehicles in the latest Southern order, likely to be formed into 35 additional 4-car units. My thoughts are that a number of these could also serve MML 'CorPan', leaving the rest for GW semi-fasts and fasts with Crossrail taking over the slower services.

True enough and agree with your way of thinking!

I missed one project off the list - East Kilbride and Barrhead. Will correct!

 

[Altnabreac]

True enough and agree with your way of thinking!

I missed one project off the list - East Kilbride and Barrhead. Will correct!

I'd be tentative about the date for EK and Barrhead. The 2018 date was mentioned at the same time Whifflet was due in 2018. Then Whifflet jumped up the queue, Alloa/Dunblane was cancelled/postponed then reinstated/restated (depending on what version you prefer). Then Shotts line was announced for 2019 and I got the impression that it was now ahead of Barrhead/EK in the queue implying 2020 or so for them?

Have you seen a recent reconfirmation of the 2018 date?

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Dec 2017; Chase Valley (Walsall to Rugeley TV)
Event; Walsall to Rugeley Trent Valley route wired.
Effect; Four DMU diagrams replaced, namely 2 diagrams of 153/170 combos & 2x 170/6 in peak (only 3 diagrams off-peak). Cascade within LM with 2x 170/6 replacing 1x 153+170/5 Hereford & 1x 153+170/5 Snow Hill, then 2x 170/5 replace 2x 150 (one on Bedford-Bletchley & one Hereford). Other 2x 170/5 replace 2x 153 diagrams, one Bedford-Bletchley & one Coventry-Nuneaton. LM release 3x 150s and 8x 153s.
Issues; No available capacity within existing LM 323 fleet – 4 extra diagrams required. Platform extensions on Bedford-Bletchley required for operation by displaced class 170s, possibly included in East West upgrade of line, but use of class 170 temporary until line electrified.
Current Diagrams;
LM150 (2 from 3); 1 Bedford-Bletchley, 1 Hereford
LM 153 (7 from 8); 1 Coventry-Nuneaton, 1 Bedford-Bletchley, 1 (+170/5 Hereford), 1 (+170/5 Snow Hill), 2 +170/5 Rugeley), 1 Bletchley Spare
LM323 (23 from 26); 14x Cross City all-day & 5x peak hour 6-car strengthening 1x extra Four Oak, 3x Wolves-Walsall (two other diagrams are class 350)

Thanks to the OP for this summary, just a few points on the West Midlands stuff
You may be short on a class 323 diagram for X-City post Bromsgrove with the turn round times for pathing back up the lickey.
Snow Hill Lines use all of the 172s plus 2 x 170/6 on one morning job from Worcester into Birmingham then a 153+170/6 on an afternoon diagram, the Snow Hill stuff may change come December (confimation awaited).
There is a lot of interworking of 170 and 153 jobs between the Shrewsbury, Chase Line, Hereford and Snow Hill Line jobs as things stand with numerous ECS moves running between New Street and Tyseley and between Tyseley and Worcester to get the train lengths right between the the morning and evening peaks.

 

[ianhr]

Excellent and interesting list! A couple of events/effects you might have missed:
(1)Man Vic-Todmorden-Burnley-Blackburn, new service to be dmu worked sometime in 2014, using units released by Liverpool-Manchester electrification?
(2)Manchester Airport-Blackpool (currently TPE) will presumably be emus from 2016?

 

[Class377/5]

Note the arrival of the 377/6 doesn't not allow any 377/2 to go to FCC. They are for the 456 and the franchise commitment to 10 cars (originally to be filled by the 23x 377/5).

Thameslink - Does the Diversion of trains from via London Bridge to via Herne Hill from 2014-2018 thus increasing the journey time (and thus more units required) mean that FCC won't be able to release any 319s until the 377/8 start to enter service rather than the last of the 377/6 or /7 mentioned in the OP?

Journey times increase by 15mins between Blackfriars and Croydon. Thameslink timetable will change massively in Dec 14 but plan is to use the same amount of stock as now.

The first 319s will be released by the 377/7 cascade with the 377/2 heading back to Thameslink. Rumors of between 6-12 of them heading over. The 377/8 will simply replace them on a unit by unit approach.

What's not been stated in the original post is the 377/7 allow for service increases while allowing stock cascades too.

 

[Kneedown]

GWML and/or MML 110mph EMU's?).

MML will require 125mph stock. Linespeed going up shortly.

 

[G_A_C_C_C]

As for the GW, I'm not sure how what services will be absorbed by CrossRail, but I'd imagine a uniform-ish fleet of outer-suburban EMUs will cover Paddington, Reading, Basingstoke, Oxford and Newbury. Will the 29 377/8s be enough for all these, including the Marlow, etc branches? Certainly not in the case of Marlow and the Bourne End restrictions.

I would think it more likely the all or some 377/3s will be freed up by the 377/8s and these would be used on GW. They would fit on the branch lines.

There are 28 377/3s and a (current) order of 29 377/8s, very simillar number of trains and a swap gives Southern some increased capacity

Throw in a set 4 car units, say the 377/5s freed up (eventually) from Thameslink and that should GW easily?

 

[D365]

MML will require 125mph stock. Linespeed going up shortly.

110mph will do for Corby, maybe. If the 377/8s stay post-Thameslink for 'CorPan', it should be easy as they'll already be cleared up to Bedford [EDIT: Unless you want to avoid the dreaded micro-fleet, maybe.]

I would think it more likely the all or some 377/3s will be freed up by the 377/8s and these would be used on GW. They would fit on the branch lines.

There are 28 377/3s and a (current) order of 29 377/8s, very simillar number of trains and a swap gives Southern some increased capacity

Throw in a set 4 car units, say the 377/5s freed up (eventually) from Thameslink and that should GW easily?

Someone on Wikipedia has suggested that Networker Turbos should be withdrawn. Conveniently forgetting that Chiltern AND GW are going to maintain a sizeable fleet for the forseeable future, which themselves have been fitted with air-conditioning. Reduced demand for diesel around the country? Many would have hoped that would have been met by retiring Pacers rather than this superior fleet. [EDIT: Edited article!]

And what group of people is it who keep suggesting everything for transfer to SWT/Southern region in 2014?!

 

[43074]

110mph will do for Corby. If the 377/8s stay post-Thameslink for 'CorPan', it should be easy as they'll already be cleared up to Bedford

If the MML is going 125mph, why not go all the way and have 125mph trains for Corby? You would only need 5 377/8s accounting for 1 spare and 3 off peak diagrams, with another diagram covering off peak diagrams. Where is the sense in having lots of micro fleets? (Also I am dismissive of the idea of Leicester having 377/8s on semi-fast services. A better use of the trains would be 1/2 hourly to Corby). Neither can I see Kettering or Wellingborough welcoming 377s with open arms either - they didn't like the idea of 'BedPan' 317s being extended to Corby replacing off peak HSTs in the 1980s.

I would suggest an IEP-type train for Nottingham & Sheffield and a Javelin-type train for Corby, if they were to have a different train. Obviously it is better have have as uniform a train fleet as possible.

110mph 377/8s would be better suited to Great Western Main Line post CrossRail and Electrification.

 

[Kneedown]

I would suggest an IEP-type train for Nottingham & Sheffield and a Javelin-type train for Corby, if they were to have a different train. Obviously it is better have have as uniform a train fleet as possible.

This is what is currently doing the Drivers rumour mill, and the logic seems to be there. Both made by Hitachi so similarities between trains, plus only one maintenance contract required.