Electrification & Rolling Stock Cascade Impact Review

[Eagle]

They are going to run via a different route for the first year or so aren't they?

The Manchester to Scotland services are moving to the Chat Moss route permanently (with the exception of a few peak services), as far as current plans go.

The shortfall at Bolton will hopefully be made up in December 2014, initially using Northern DMUs that are freed up by the electrification to Liverpool to run extra services, and then eventually switching to EMUs when the Bolton line is wired.

At least that's th plan as far as I'm aware.

 

[tbtc]

The shortfall at Bolton will hopefully be made up in December 2014, initially using Northern DMUs that are freed up by the electrification to Liverpool to run extra services, and then eventually switching to EMUs when the Bolton line is wired.

At least that's th plan as far as I'm aware.

The "Scottish" services through Bolton are generally only one every two hours, so its not going to be a *huge* hole to fill - only mentioning this because of the way that its generally reported on here.

 

[158722]

The Manchester to Scotland services are moving to the Chat Moss route permanently (with the exception of a few peak services), as far as current plans go.

The shortfall at Bolton will hopefully be made up in December 2014, initially using Northern DMUs that are freed up by the electrification to Liverpool to run extra services, and then eventually switching to EMUs when the Bolton line is wired.

At least that's th plan as far as I'm aware.

Your response nicely responds to what I should have made clear before. Whilst up to 24 142s should in theory be freed up by the NW electrification schemes, there is indeed a need for the units elsewhere, perhaps temporarily. So, whilst some units in theory become spare next year, they will be needed to cover the shortfall on Bolton services. These services in turn can be turned over to EMUs in 2016 when Manchester-Preston is wired, so all that happens is that the 142s survive a bit longer and a few extra 319s are needed to replace them. Even with these extra services, there should be enough 319s and I still see all 86 of them ending up at Northern by 2018/19.

 

[Eagle]

The "Scottish" services through Bolton are generally only one every two hours, so its not going to be a *huge* hole to fill - only mentioning this because of the way that its generally reported on here.

Indeed. People are remembering that the new service is hourly, but forgetting that the old service wassomewhat less than that (and it was often coupled to a Barrow or Windermere TPE service, which will still be there).

 

[D365]

If so will they pair them with 185s and use the 185 to drag the 350 to Preston where they can split?

Not going to happen but I'm sure the 185s have plenty much power to do such

 

[Chris125]

Both valid points, but I'm having some difficulty in seeing what practical and ecnomically viable use can be made of the 27 class 222s sets as well as the 78 class 220/221s...

Well I can't see the entire Meridian and Voyager fleets needing new homes for one thing, some of the latter will surely see out the rest of their economic life on Cross Country routes.

Those that do are not going to see much use on services suited to high speed long distance DEMU's, but they should still see use given that there will be no new diesel units likely in the foreseeable future.

Practical? Well there's nothing unusual about unwanted or ageing rolling stock being relegated to routes and services they are less than ideal for - GNER's Eurostars, the Northern 180's, and Southern 442's being recent examples.

As for economic viability, with limited rolling stock a continuing issue for the DfT and politicians going forward, and the ROSCO's likely keen to see their assents used, I'm sure something affordable can be worked out.

Better to consider converting 220-222s to bi-mode or pure EMUs as there isn't a huge justification for them elsewhere.

perhaps the perfect time to build a few new electric power cars, insert them in the 221s & 222s and remove all of those thirsty diesel engines then...

...which isn't going to happen for the same reason I gave before - the longer you leave such a massive re-engineering the less time there is to recover the costs. As most are unlikely to need their full top speed in the future a much more sensible project IMO would be to reduce the power/weight/fuel consumption, a cost which should be much easier to recover.

Chris

 

[The Ham]

When it gets to the point that there aren't enough routes for the 22x's to run in their current form I could see some of their end vehicles being scrapped so that they can be formed into longer sets. (thus making them more useful and reducing their number in one go).

 

[158722]

Well I can't see the entire Meridian and Voyager fleets needing new homes for one thing, some of the latter will surely see out the rest of their economic life on Cross Country routes.

Those that do are not going to see much use on services suited to high speed long distance DEMU's, but they should still see use given that there will be no new diesel units likely in the foreseeable future.

Practical? Well there's nothing unusual about unwanted or ageing rolling stock being relegated to routes and services they are less than ideal for - GNER's Eurostars, the Northern 180's, and Southern 442's being recent examples.

As for economic viability, with limited rolling stock a continuing issue for the DfT and politicians going forward, and the ROSCO's likely keen to see their assents used, I'm sure something affordable can be worked out.




...which isn't going to happen for the same reason I gave before - the longer you leave such a massive re-engineering the less time there is to recover the costs. As most are unlikely to need their full top speed in the future a much more sensible project IMO would be to reduce the power/weight/fuel consumption, a cost which should be much easier to recover.

Chris

Again, some very valid points. I agree that some 220s, perhaps, could find use on Norwich-Liverpool, Birmingham-Stansted and Notts-Cardiff if they get replaced by pure EMUs on XC eventually, but what about the others? Politically, we can't have them running around for miles and miles on diesel power under nice new shiny wires. Too new to scrap, but at that difficult half life period where some big decisions to be made...

 

[northwichcat]

The "Scottish" services through Bolton are generally only one every two hours, so its not going to be a *huge* hole to fill - only mentioning this because of the way that its generally reported on here.

I've got an old timetable to hand so the times might be slightly out but the direct northbound Scottish departures from Manchester Piccadilly on weekdays are: 06:03, 06:33, 07:45, 09:16, 10:16, 12:16, 13:16, 14:16, 16:16, 17:15 and 18:16 so over 13 hours between 6am and 7pm that averages 0.84 services per hour so it's actually closer to an hourly service than a 2 hourly service despite the 2 hour gaps at times.

Bolton won't necessarily need more services to Manchester to compensate, due to the number of other services available, but will need more capacity on existing services if replacement services aren't introduced.

However, Bolton will have less services to Preston and Chorley will have less services to both Preston and Manchester so I think the Blackpool to Manchester Airport services could be extremely busy during Summer 2014.

 

[158722]

I've got an old timetable to hand so the times might be slightly out but the direct northbound Scottish departures from Manchester Piccadilly on weekdays are: 06:03, 06:33, 07:45, 09:16, 10:16, 12:16, 13:16, 14:16, 16:16, 17:15 and 18:16 so over 13 hours between 6am and 7pm that averages 0.84 services per hour so it's actually closer to an hourly service than a 2 hourly service despite the 2 hour gaps at times.

Bolton won't necessarily need more services to Manchester to compensate, due to the number of other services available, but will need more capacity on existing services if replacement services aren't introduced.

However, Bolton will have less services to Preston and Chorley will have less services to both Preston and Manchester so I think the Blackpool to Manchester Airport services could be extremely busy during Summer 2014.

Are there any plans to use say just one of the 185s displaced from the Scottish services on a Manchester-Preston via Bolton service to plug the gap created by the diverted services? When integrated with other diagrams, it should be possible to do this with just the one extra unit.

 

[northwichcat]

Are there any plans to use say just one of the 185s displaced from the Scottish services on a Manchester-Preston via Bolton service to plug the gap created by the diverted services? When integrated with other diagrams, it should be possible to do this with just the one extra unit.

No. Between Dec 13 and May 14 as 350s are being phased in the morning peak southbound services and the evening peak northbound services will continue via Bolton. However, in May 14 a standard pattern Liverpool-Newcastle via Victoria service will start, with the existing Airport-Newcastle service truncated at York in the standard pattern and other North TPE services remaining the same so the peak time Scottish services via Bolton will likely stop at that point.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Two random points not emerging from the above:
- Scotland are said to want 221s for Edinburgh/Glasgow-Aberdeen/Inverness (dependent on VT replacing them with EMUs).
- trains on the GN (ECML South) after 2019 will have to have ETCS fitted. This is likely to eliminate 313s and any other stock considered unsuitable for conversion.

 

[Kettledrum]

I can't see Project Thor being revived, it was widely reported as proving far more expensive than initially thought so was not financially viable - trying again a decade later simply means there is a decade less to earn back the investment over the lifetime of the rolling stock.

Chris

Technology does move on though and if a way is found of making the pantograph vehicle fully functional for a more reasonable price, then a form of project Thor could still happen.

 

[The Ham]

Again, some very valid points. I agree that some 220s, perhaps, could find use on Norwich-Liverpool, Birmingham-Stansted and Notts-Cardiff if they get replaced by pure EMUs on XC eventually, but what about the others? Politically, we can't have them running around for miles and miles on diesel power under nice new shiny wires. Too new to scrap, but at that difficult half life period where some big decisions to be made...

It could be possible that XC look at extentions to existing routes to use some of the 22x's.

For instance extending the current Newcastle to Reading service (which runs every other hour to Southampton) so that runs to Salisbury. That way it meams that XC run a half hourly service between Reading and Basingstoke, tap into a new market (the changes for XC services from the Salisbury directoin aren't that well timed) and find a use for some of their trains. It also provides more capacity between Basingstoke and Salisbury when SWT's are unlikely to provide it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Summer 2015/Spring 2016; Bicester to Oxford (Chiltern Evergreen 3)
DB Regio have 13 Mk3 RFM, 12 Mk3 FO/TSO & 13 DVT stored for refurbishment plus 5 TSO in commuter set.

Just to point out that DB Regio does not exist in the UK any more.
It's all Arriva now (Arriva UK Trains runs all the franchises/concessions).

 

[158722]

Just to point out that DB Regio does not exist in the UK any more.
It's all Arriva now (Arriva UK Trains runs all the franchises/concessions).

Still owned by DB though?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
This link has been flagged up on another thread, but worth repeating here given the impact it could have on several of the cascades and service changes noted.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/edinburgh-glasgow-rail-link-faces-three-year-delay-1-2868665

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Still owned by DB though?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
This link has been flagged up on another thread, but worth repeating here given the impact it could have on several of the cascades and service changes noted.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/edinburgh-glasgow-rail-link-faces-three-year-delay-1-2868665

Yes of course, Arriva is DB.
Regio retreated to German domestic services.

The Scotsman article looks to be a rehash of earlier speculation about EGIP delays.
Unfortunately the Scots don't seem to be able to publish a believable plan.
NR has yet to let an electrification contract for EGIP (or for many other CP5 wiring projects).

 

[158722]

Yes of course, Arriva is DB.
Regio retreated to German domestic services.

The Scotsman article looks to be a rehash of earlier speculation about EGIP delays.
Unfortunately the Scots don't seem to be able to publish a believable plan.
NR has yet to let an electrification contract for EGIP (or for many other CP5 wiring projects).

Quite agree, closing the line via Winchburgh to sort the tunnel for 3 months is going to cause a massive stink, both politically and for passengers. Building the Dalmeny chord as originally planned before this closure would be the logical way around that one, but rebuilding Queen St looks to be equally problematic and challenging.

It's a reall concern what goes on with this project, and not just in Scotland either, given all the DMus cascades which it can and will set off.

 

[Manchester77]

On the subject of XC we could always see a VT style reforming program with the voyagers displaced by the new EMUs used to lengthen the existing fleet, however this does potentially leave us with more 2 car voyagers sat at Central Rivers. But if you have more double voyagers you have the duplicated train crew.

 

[Class377/5]

There's forty 365s - that's a lot of units to keep on the "Great Northern" for the sake of two departures an hour off-peak (one to Cambridge, one to Kings Lynn). Just how many peak extras are there going to be?

Any stock suitable for London - Corby should be able to do London - Cambridge too (whether 100 or 110 mph). London - Corby would be better with TSGN than with EMT, I reckon.

Sorry for the delay, been busy and unable to check but the future peak requirements are for around 30-35 depending on how many 12 cars to Peterborough.

Is slowing down the Corby services really the best idea?

 

[158722]

On the subject of XC we could always see a VT style reforming program with the voyagers displaced by the new EMUs used to lengthen the existing fleet, however this does potentially leave us with more 2 car voyagers sat at Central Rivers. But if you have more double voyagers you have the duplicated train crew.

I was going to suggest something a bit more radical.

The 222s get displaced by 91s on the midland and get moved to great western to replace the HSTs on Devon and Cornwall services - either without or with being converted to bi-modes with new electric power cars inserted to make most of them up to 8 cars (6 diesel cars & 2 new electric cars per set). On-going project during CP6.

Assuming the non-wired gaps in the XC network are filled in CP6, Derby-Birmingham-Bristol, this together with other projects already announced will allow a core Edinburgh/Glasgow-ECML-Derby-Brum-Bristol/Reading/Southampton XC service to be run with a new fleet of electric only IEPs. This, along with replacement of most/all WC 221s with new build mini-Pendos or more IEPs, will allow the 221s to also get an extra 2 electric power cars inserted to make them 7-car and able to cover XC services off the wires to Aberdeen and Devon/Cornwall.

The 34x 220s and 4x 4-car 221s look to be sufficient to cover XC Cardiff-Nottingham and Brum-Stansted vice 170s (20-22 diagrams) as well as EMT's Liverpool-Norwich (12 diagrams). The cascaded 158s and 170s then start to see off the 150s and 156s, which will be approaching their 40th birthdays by the end of CP6.

As has been mentioned, Project Thor has been dismissed for now, but I'm a strong believer that it or something similar will be revisited in the future.

 

[RobShipway]

I was going to suggest something a bit more radical.

The 222s get displaced by 91s on the midland and get moved to great western to replace the HSTs on Devon and Cornwall services - either without or with being converted to bi-modes with new electric power cars inserted to make most of them up to 8 cars (6 diesel cars & 2 new electric cars per set). On-going project during CP6.

Assuming the non-wired gaps in the XC network are filled in CP6, Derby-Birmingham-Bristol, this together with other projects already announced will allow a core Edinburgh/Glasgow-ECML-Derby-Brum-Bristol/Reading/Southampton XC service to be run with a new fleet of electric only IEPs. This, along with replacement of most/all WC 221s with new build mini-Pendos or more IEPs, will allow the 221s to also get an extra 2 electric power cars inserted to make them 7-car and able to cover XC services off the wires to Aberdeen and Devon/Cornwall.

The 34x 220s and 4x 4-car 221s look to be sufficient to cover XC Cardiff-Nottingham and Brum-Stansted vice 170s (20-22 diagrams) as well as EMT's Liverpool-Norwich (12 diagrams). The cascaded 158s and 170s then start to see off the 150s and 156s, which will be approaching their 40th birthdays by the end of CP6.

As has been mentioned, Project Thor has been dismissed for now, but I'm a strong believer that it or something similar will be revisited in the future.

As has been discussed before the building of extra cars for class 22x is not possible as it would cost twice as much as building a hybrid IEP train per carriage inserted into the class 22x to allow for it to be used a DEMU train as originally designed.

 

[158722]

As has been discussed before the building of extra cars for class 22x is not possible as it would cost twice as much as building a hybrid IEP train per carriage inserted into the class 22x to allow for it to be used a DEMU train as originally designed.

It is possible, but whether it is financially viable now as opposed to whether it will be in 5-8 years time is open to debate.

Something will be seriously wrong if the 220-222 fleets are withdrawn after 20 odd years service, so what other use can be found for them?

 

[Manchester77]

They won't be though, Scotland have expressed interest and lots if other uses can easily be found.
XC won't be fully electrified for a while yet so some can stay there
GW can be a home for the 222s it doesn't really matter there'll running under the wires considering it's already planned the IC125s will do so.

 

[JamesRowden]

Something will be seriously wrong if the 220-222 fleets are withdrawn after 20 odd years service, so what other use can be found for them?

If the Marshlink still hasn't been electrified, run them St Pancras-HS1(non-stop)-Ashford-Hastings

(I do know that the pointwork at Ashford would need to be altered to make this service possible and this suggestion is mainly about humour anyway)

 

[158722]

They won't be though, Scotland have expressed interest and lots if other uses can easily be found.
XC won't be fully electrified for a while yet so some can stay there
GW can be a home for the 222s it doesn't really matter there'll running under the wires considering it's already planned the IC125s will do so.

True enough on the 222s, will around 16 7/8car sets be enough to cover the non-IEP services on the GW?

 

[RobShipway]

True enough on the 222s, will around 16 7/8car sets be enough to cover the non-IEP services on the GW?

The existing HST services are 8 car all ready and I think are fairly loaded even during the off peak times, so I think if the class 222's where used that they would be best to be used in 9 car formation as some of them where originally designed to be used.

 

[JamesRowden]

True enough on the 222s, will around 16 7/8car sets be enough to cover the non-IEP services on the GW?

I the Future of the Intercity 125s thread I calculated that the entire fleet of 222s seem to be exactly the number required to operate the Paddington-Plymouth/Penzance services, with all services made up of two units which split at Plymouth (with one set terminating at Plymouth) to provide Penzance with 1tph to London.

 

[158722]

I the Future of the Intercity 125s thread I calculated that the entire fleet of 222s seem to be exactly the number required to operate the Paddington-Plymouth/Penzance services, with all services made up of two units which split at Plymouth (with one set terminating at Plymouth) to provide Penzance with 1tph to London.

Excellent work, I hadn't picked up that info from that thread! Saves me working all that out!

So my thoughts about the 91s going to the Midland with the 222s off to GW seems to stack up?!

220s to EMT and XC routes I mentioned, with residual XC and WC (Holyhead) services 221s, whilst the remainder of them head to Scotland, along with perhaps scotrail taking over the XC services north of Edinburgh?

 

[anthony263]

If there are any class 220/221/222 units looking for a home, perhaps someone should ask the WG if they want them for the Holyhead - Cardiff services. It would be cheaper than using the loco hauled rakes and free's up class 158'/175's for use elsewhere.

This is me being a bit sarcastic about the WG although perhaps it could work in theory as the route is a long distance service, although if they were able to be converted to bi-mode for a reasonable price they could be used on the Milford Haven - Manchester route as that route will run under the wires between Swansea & Newport and north of Crewe