The 10.4% growth is made up as below;
RPI.................................................................................3.1%
Yield management / revenue protection / enhanced products.....1.5%
Volume............................................................................5.8%
Passenger revenue CAGR...................................................10.4%
from the First Group presentation posted about 800 posts ago so not so easy to find now.
So First are expecting to increase passenger numbers to 70 odd million or 2.3 times current levels by 15 years time.
Thanks for that - very useful. So the headline figure of 10.4% relates to revenue and it's not alll "growth" as you have to factor out RPI. Dividing 1.104 by 1.031, we can see that the promise is of 6.8% revenue growth in real terms which doesn't seem quite so off-the-scale.
I'm intrigued however by the 1.5 annual growth due to yield management, revenue protection and enhanced products. That's a 21% growth over 13 years. Presumably First would expect to get the full benefit of that early on in the franchise?
The 5.8% year-on-year volume growth does seem to be nearer the realms of plausibility than 10.4%, but it's still very ambitious. When LM's new faster Trent Valley to Euston services start, it will be interesting to see how any latent demand from/via Nuneaton, for example, splits between First and LM.
As a motorist, I think the congestion and parking charges in central London are already such that anyone who still chooses their car for visiting the capital is unlikely to be shifted however favourable the train. Where there's still a battle to be won is on non-London journeys that would use the WCML, (e.g. Leicester-Liverpool, Tamworth-Preston, Northampton-Crewe). For those examples, I think many drivers will look at the current timetable and think the door-to-door time via train just does not come close to competing with the car. The loss of connectivity at the key junctions along the WCML for the VHF project was the price paid for the fast end-to-end journeys to London.
Personally I think passengers would tolerate an extra 10 minutes on these journey times if it improved connectivity elsewhere (and some of the turnaround times could easily accommodate that). What people don't want is a return to the 3-hour and 4-hour journey times that we saw regularly pre-VHF on 200-mile trips.
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Another fan here of the FGW HST seats. They promote good posture.
It may seem comfortable to slump in an IC70, but it's doing your back no good at all.
Are you sure about that? There was a study I read that debunked the idea that sitting bolt upright was good and actually decided that slouching was best for your back. I remember feeling vindicated as I slouch at work because it's the position I find most comfortable and avoids back ache, for me at least.
Ryanair seats are bolt upright and I had back ache for 24 hours after I came off a two-hour flight with them.