Wind Power and UK Energy Use

[Bald Rick]

interesting this morning - the wholesale price has been quite high (£130/MWh) and it looks like battery storage was on full discharge to make space for the solar later today when the price will no doubt be much lower. They will be clearing £100/MWh easily: not bad for one day’s work.

The interesting bit is that this is directly impacting gas generation - ie the 2GW or so of Battery output this morning had a direct effect on reducing gas generation.

Meanwhile, yesterday confirmed as a new record:

Great Britain achieves new maximum solar generation record - Solar Power Portal

On 1 April, between 12:30 and 13:00, Great Britain secured a new maximum solar generation record of 12.2GW.

www.solarpowerportal.co.uk

 

[gravitystorm]

Depots should be the obvious place for the railway to install panels. Large buildings, usually modern ones with simple roofs.

There's a community energy project, "Energy Garden", that's doing just that. They have raised funds and paid for solar panels to be installed on shed roofs at Streatham and Bedford depots so far, with more to come. The main challenge for the community group is getting the legal agreements signed, since the lifetime of the panels (and the payback period for installing them) is longer than the franchises, even before the GBR stuff is taken into consideration. But they worked it all out with GTR / DfT / whoever else eventually, and have those two sites installed.

GTR Streatham Traincare Depot — Energy Garden

www.energygarden.org.uk

GTR Bedford Cauldwell Walk Train Depot — Energy Garden

www.energygarden.org.uk

The depot operators get green electricity without the upfront capital investment (which is great for them, since no depot operators own the sheds or have 20+ year leases), community investors get a return on their capital, and if I recall correctly the spare electricity is sold on long-term contracts to other companies at a reasonable price. And the community group get some return to spend on their other good works too. Here's hoping they can expand to the next sites soon.

 

[MotCO]

In my experience of seeing new builds, the developers install way too few panels to really make an impact. Solar panels are cheap these days so there's no reason not to completely fill the roof (with the necessary spacing around the edges etc). Even if the DNO restricts export, and the inverter clips the generated power in the summer, the extra panels make a massive difference on cloudy days and in the winter.

It's like a box ticking exercise for many developers (suggesting the requirements are not good enough), and if I was buying a new build today, I'd be demanding they do the job properly. I'd also want them to consider building space for home batteries, and providing the necessary cabling and space for the associated equipment.

Solar panels on roofs too often look like a bolt -on. I'm sure that there could be a better design to make solar panels look attractive and an integral part of the house.

 

[InTheEastMids]

In my experience of seeing new builds, the developers install way too few panels to really make an impact.

Housebuilders generally do the minimum necessary to comply with the Building Regulations,and the industry has largely fought tooth and nail against tightening the regulations.
It is much easier to achieve compliance by putting a few solar panels to the roof versus outstanding thermal performance.

if I was buying a new build today, I'd be demanding they do the job properly.

I wish you well with that. Realistically, a professional snagging inspection is the best hope you have in terms of the general construction/finish.
Also might question whether "compliant with building regs" is the same thing as "properly"...

However thinking about energy performance, that's mostly concerned with heat and needs a different approach - air-tightness testing, in-use heat demand and thermal imaging surveys.

Doesn't look like today's output will quite match yesterdays.
Also worth thinking about energy, not just instantaneous peak output. My solar generated more kWh on 18th March than it managed yesterday.

 

[Bald Rick]

Also worth thinking about energy, not just instantaneous peak output. My solar generated more kWh on 18th March than it managed yesterday.

Indeed.

Yesterday, Solar generated 87.6GWh, which is only just short of the daily record of 90.9GWh. But given it is early April, it’s almost certain that record will go later this year - probably several times. I’d be surprised if we don’t go past 100GWh by July. That is the equivalent of 2 x Ratcliffe Power stations running flat out all day.

The wholesale price has been very negative for the last couple of hours; the grid scale battery facilities will have been making up to £200 /MWh through arbritage if they played their cards right. A 200MWh facility will have cleared £40k in half a day, and paid back 0.1% of it’s cost. Nice business, and that explains why so many are in the construction and planning process.

 

[HSTEd]

Solar panels on roofs too often look like a bolt -on. I'm sure that there could be a better design to make solar panels look attractive and an integral part of the house.

At this point it is getting to the point that new construction would almost be more economic if they were built with solar panels as cladding on the walls and the entire roof.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Apr 2025 ==

The wholesale price has been very negative for the last couple of hours; the grid scale battery facilities will have been making up to £200 /MWh through arbritage if they played their cards right. A 200MWh facility will have cleared £40k in half a day, and paid back 0.1% of it’s cost. Nice business, and that explains why so many are in the construction and planning process.

As negative prices become more common and regular, we would expect to see industrial customers installing electric heating elements in parallel with gas burners for process heating.

I have no idea if this is happening in the UK, but a CCGT station operating in a two-shift part day regime in Ontario has installed an electrode boiler for its standby auxilliary steam requirements - because if they are not running electricity is likely cheap anyway. Meanwhile, they avoid all the extra annoyances of a gas fired auxiliary steam system.

 

[Krokodil]

Solar panels on roofs too often look like a bolt -on. I'm sure that there could be a better design to make solar panels look attractive and an integral part of the house.

Another reason why having them installed on newbuilds by default is better. Integrating solar panels means re-roofing. It's a lot easier if it's part of the design and build from the beginning. A company based in South Wales called "GB-Sol" looks interesting to me. Integrated panels, whole roofs (so no visible join at the edges), and replacements for slates on offer.

At this point it is getting to the point that new construction would almost be more economic if they were built with solar panels as cladding on the walls and the entire roof.

I've actually been considering this. My house was built circa 1835 and has dormer windows on the east-southeast side. This means that the largest clear expanse of roof I've got faces west-northwest. Obviously this isn't ideal. However the gable end faces south-southwest and would be ideal for catching the low winter sun, being larger than any sections of roof. Many houses around here have slated walls, to protect them from the elements in more exposed places so "slating" the end with PV slates wouldn't be out of character for the building.

The further north you go, the more worthwhile it is to mount solar panels on vertical walls, especially if you're in an area prone to snow.

 

[jon0844]

Vertical solar is being talked about a lot more now and may be the only option for some people, while for others it may accompany roof mounted panels for additional generation. Now panels are so cheap, there's little reason not do it.

 

[Class 317]

I believe this year will see a high amount of new solar PV is forecast to installed during 2025 with between 2.5GW and 3GW forecast including quite a few large free standing schemes.

BESS capacity is also forecast to double this year with will see gas peaking plants used less.

Overall in 2024 electricity demand fell by around 2% dispite many more BEV's and electric heating systems being installed. Gas generation dropped 15% dispite Ratcliffe closing.

When I have time and I find a none confidential source I'll post a link.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

interesting this morning - the wholesale price has been quite high (£130/MWh) and it looks like battery storage was on full discharge to make space for the solar later today when the price will no doubt be much lower. They will be clearing £100/MWh easily: not bad for one day’s work.

The interesting bit is that this is directly impacting gas generation - ie the 2GW or so of Battery output this morning had a direct effect on reducing gas generation.

Meanwhile, yesterday confirmed as a new record:

Great Britain achieves new maximum solar generation record - Solar Power Portal

On 1 April, between 12:30 and 13:00, Great Britain secured a new maximum solar generation record of 12.2GW.

www.solarpowerportal.co.uk

Indeed system price has seen a £215 delta between high and low points over the last 24hrs although to be clear energy procured through this source is less than 5% of daily use as most is traded on the day ahead market or through forward/PPA contracts years in advance. Anyhow more than enough spare energy for the battery boys to clear up on good days but of course there are plenty of days where the delta barely covers there operating costs.

 

[Bald Rick]

Overall in 2024 electricity demand fell by around 2% dispite many more BEV's and electric heating systems being installed. Gas generation dropped 15% dispite Ratcliffe closing.

Actually, demand went up for the first time in over a decade (Covid rebound excepted)

Wind becomes Britain’s largest source of electricity in 2024 | Q4 2024 Quarterly Report | Electric Insights

reports.electricinsights.co.uk

Britain’s electricity demand grew by 1.6% in 2024. While that may not sound much, it is the fastest year-on-year growth since 2010, apart from the post-Covid rebound. Alongside new technologies such as AI, electric vehicles have a part to play in this. More than half a million battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold in the UK last year. Recharging these vehicles is consuming over 1 TWh of extra electricity per year, while saving around 2.5 million barrels of oil per year (~£150 m), and nearly half of UK oil consumption is imported.

 

[Class 317]

Actually, demand went up for the first time in over a decade (Covid rebound excepted)

Wind becomes Britain’s largest source of electricity in 2024 | Q4 2024 Quarterly Report | Electric Insights

reports.electricinsights.co.uk

Demand did drop, I see the industry figures and that report is incorrect. It dropped 2.9% last year.

They are missing reporting the figures.

 

[Bald Rick]

Demand did drop, I see the industry figures and that report is incorrect. It dropped 2.9% last year.

They are missing reporting the figures.

ok, I stand corrected.

Might it be a difference between demand and generation? We imported a lot more in 2024 compared to 2023, I think.

 

[Class 317]

ok, I stand corrected.

Might it be a difference between demand and generation? We imported a lot more in 2024 compared to 2023, I think.

It's been reported as an increase by a few websites but I believe that is the none temperature adjusted figures.

Generally the figures are adjusted to take into account before the meter Solar but national grid view this only as a demand reduction which normally explains most differences.

 

[HSTEd]

I wonder if and when the time of use tariffs offered on smart meters (like Octopus Flux etc) will start to offer differing cheap electricity periods in summer than in winter.

For example nighttime electricity would be cheapest in winter, and midday electricity would be cheapest in summer.

 

[jon0844]

Tomorrow must have a lot of sun predicted as rates are -5p in the day and Agile is even below the standard rate at 4pm.

 

[Bald Rick]

Tomorrow must have a lot of sun predicted as rates are -5p in the day and Agile is even below the standard rate at 4pm.

The sun has been much the same all week, and will ne much the same next week.

The difference is it will be windy in the south, meanign the southern wind farms will be generating decent amounts, and less windy in the north, so we will not be paying for them to curtail generation. Also the temperature is just about perfect: warm enough thst there‘s less need for heating, but no need for aircon, so demand will be low.

 

[brad465]

Apparently electricity costs are averaging a whopping -£51/MWh at the moment.

 

[Bald Rick]

Apparently electricity costs are averaging a whopping -£51/MWh at the moment.

-£81/MWh as of 1300. We’re even exporting to Norway!

In slightly related news, the Loch Earba pumped storage project received planning consent this week. This is a 1.8GW / 40GWh storage facility, in the Ardverikie estate.

Combined with the Coire Glas project (1.3GW, 30GWh, in pre-construction now), and Loch Fearna (1.8GW, 37GWh, planning application submitted last week), that’s well over 100GWh of storage likely to be commissioned in the next decade.

It has also been reported that there is 117GWh of battery storage with planning consent awaiting constuction.

 

[HSTEd]

-£81/MWh as of 1300. We’re even exporting to Norway!

In slightly related news, the Loch Earba pumoed storage project received planning consent this week. This is a 1.8GW / 40GWh storage facility, in the Ardverikie estate.

Combined with the Coire Glas project (1.3GW, 30GWh, in pre-construction now), and Loch Fearna (1.8GW, 37GWh, planning application submitted last week), that’s well over 100GWh of stirage likely to be commissioned in the next decade.

It has also been reproed that there is 117GWh of battery storage with planning consent awaiting constuction.

And even this is unlikely to keep pace with the rate of renewable capacity growth!

Now if only decarbonisation of the rest of the economy was going as well as decarbonisation of electricity (excluding the mess the grid is in anyway!)

 

[Krokodil]

Now if only decarbonisation of the rest of the economy was going as well as decarbonisation of electricity (excluding the mess the grid is in anyway!)

Yes, if only we had some way of using electricity to power trains...

Nope, too difficult! We'll have to look at bionic duckweed instead.

 

[HSTEd]

Yes, if only we had some way of using electricity to power trains...

Nope, too difficult! We'll have to look at bionic duckweed instead.

I once attended a conference where a startup had managed to obtain VC funding to build shipping containers full of lithium ion batteries, that would be shipped to and from carribean islands to transport power from the mainland.....

The world of business and quasi business is a strange place

 

[Krokodil]

I once attended a conference where a startup had managed to obtain VC funding to build shipping containers full of lithium ion batteries, that would be shipped to and from carribean islands to transport power from the mainland.....

The world of business and quasi business is a strange place

Ah yes, the Caribbean is well known for its gloomy weather so solar couldn't possibly work...

 

[HSTEd]

Ah yes, the Caribbean is well known for its gloomy weather so solar couldn't possibly work...

They haven't even heard of the groundbreaking technology of the "cable", so what chance has solar got!

(And yes I know there are technical issues, but still)

 

[Pete_uk]

This thread is the only thing I have read online today that makes me feel a little less gloomy

 

[Class 317]

-£81/MWh as of 1300. We’re even exporting to Norway!

In slightly related news, the Loch Earba pumoed storage project received planning consent this week. This is a 1.8GW / 40GWh storage facility, in the Ardverikie estate.

Combined with the Coire Glas project (1.3GW, 30GWh, in pre-construction now), and Loch Fearna (1.8GW, 37GWh, planning application submitted last week), that’s well over 100GWh of stirage likely to be commissioned in the next decade.

It has also been reproed that there is 117GWh of battery storage with planning consent awaiting constuction.

And that mid duration energy storage from the pumped hydro will make a significant contribution to meeting demand in winter.

The BESS will be online much quicker with quite a few of the new schemes are 4 hour duration eg will have 1GW capacity but be able to provide this supply over a 4 hour period.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

-£81/MWh as of 1300. We’re even exporting to Norway!

This is the system price which represents on most days less than 10 % of electricity used but as weve said is highly beneficial to the BESS operators. Circa 60% of electricity is bought in the day ahead market which was actually -£5.94/MWh for this time but the remaining 30% is sold in the forward mkts. Almost all renewable operators tend to use that route so they secure certain income to match liabilities on loans to construct the sites.

In slightly related news, the Loch Earba pumoed storage project received planning consent this week. This is a 1.8GW / 40GWh storage facility, in the Ardverikie estate.

Combined with the Coire Glas project (1.3GW, 30GWh, in pre-construction now), and Loch Fearna (1.8GW, 37GWh, planning application submitted last week), that’s well over 100GWh of stirage likely to be commissioned in the next decade.

Likely is no good we need long run storage if we want genuine net zero. If this was the CEGB 40yrs back they would just get on and build it and really cant understand while the Chief Meddler Milibrain isn't focusing on getting these built rather than increasing renewable generation way beyond what we can usefully use currently.

It has also been reproed that there is 117GWh of battery storage with planning consent awaiting constuction.

The connections reform process from NESO is going to prioritise battery connections but they are only targeting 27GW for 2030 although duration isn't specified in the "Government's Clean Power 2030 Action Plan" which is really rather odd as its energy storage that is the challenge but of course from a connection point of view they are only interested in power levels.

As an aside NESO report 12.68GW of solar today at 1200 of course still a couple of months to go to optimal irradiation levels so will undoubtedly be exceeded.

 

[Class 317]

This is the system price which represents on most days less than 10 % of electricity used but as weve said is highly beneficial to the BESS operators. Circa 60% of electricity is bought in the day ahead market which was actually -£5.94/MWh for this time but the remaining 30% is sold in the forward mkts. Almost all renewable operators tend to use that route so they secure certain income to match liabilities on loans to construct the sites.

Likely is no good we need long run storage if we want genuine net zero. If this was the CEGB 40yrs back they would just get on and build it and really cant understand while the Chief Meddler Milibrain isn't focusing on getting these built rather than increasing renewable generation way beyond what we can usefully use currently.

The connections reform process from NESO is going to prioritise battery connections but they are only targeting 27GW for 2030 although duration isn't specified in the "Government's Clean Power 2030 Action Plan" which is really rather odd as its energy storage that is the challenge but of course from a connection point of view they are only interested in power levels.

As an aside NESO report 12.68GW of solar today at 1200 of course still a couple of months to go to optimal irradiation levels so will undoubtedly be exceeded.

27GW is the output capacity but the storage potential will be well in excess of 27 GWH likely to be 3 times this as a minimum given the longer duration of most schemes currently being approved of offering 4 hours duration at the nominated output capacity. Personally I'm fairly confident this will be exceeded given the massive cost reductions and the distributed nature of BESS with many being co located with solar or wind farms using 1 grid connection or increasingly being sited on old power station sites with existing grid connections.

The Pumped Hydro storage will increasingly be used for mid term storage over weeks rather than days. Given the recent approval of other Pumped Hydro schemes I can't see us not reaching at least 100GWH by the mid 2030's.

Conventional Hydro is also being increasingly used in a storage capacity with output increased at times if high demand and reduced during low demand.

What is currently being worked on and Contract for difference rounds focusing on us long duration storage seasonally.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

27GW is the output capacity but the storage potential will be well in excess of 27 GWH likely to be 3 times this as a minimum given the longer duration of most schemes currently being approved of offering 4 hours duration at the nominated output capacity. Personally I'm fairly confident this will be exceeded given the massive cost reductions and the distributed nature of BESS with many being co located with solar or wind farms using 1 grid connection or increasingly being sited on old power station sites with existing grid connections.

Certainly 50-60GWh seems a reasonable forecast but you still need to have that energy available to charge in the first place. Take today wind is less than 0.5GW (metered at 0900) but with good weather conditions we should reach 12GW of solar later on but with a steady demand of 25-30GW through the day there wouldn't be a surplus of energy for storage. This is why medium/long run storage is essential as you indicate below and I would suggest its absolutely mission critical if they truly want to get to net zero. So its welcome that schemes are getting planning/regulatory approval but none are in construction.

The Pumped Hydro storage will increasingly be used for mid term storage over weeks rather than days. Given the recent approval of other Pumped Hydro schemes I can't see us not reaching at least 100GWH by the mid 2030's.

Conventional Hydro is also being increasingly used in a storage capacity with output increased at times if high demand and reduced during low demand.

What is currently being worked on and Contract for difference rounds focusing on us long duration storage seasonally.

 

[Class 317]

Certainly 50-60GWh seems a reasonable forecast but you still need to have that energy available to charge in the first place. Take today wind is less than 0.5GW (metered at 0900) but with good weather conditions we should reach 12GW of solar later on but with a steady demand of 25-30GW through the day there wouldn't be a surplus of energy for storage. This is why medium/long run storage is essential as you indicate below and I would suggest its absolutely mission critical if they truly want to get to net zero. So its welcome that schemes are getting planning/regulatory approval but none are in construction.

Of course by 2030 we will have significantly greater capacity of both onshore and offshore wind and Solar PV versus the level of demand.