Whither XC after HS2?

[Snow1964]

It’s been mentioned in a few previous discussions, and was based on something official by HS2 or DfT, so I’m fairly sure it won’t come as a surprise to many.

I don’t understand why Bournemouth and Southampton always get conveniently left off so many of these proposals. I‘m not convinced flows to say Reading Oxford and on towards Birmingham will automatically use another route...

Nor am I, there are a lot of people that don’t like changing in London, especially as it involves the tube or a taxi

There are clearly those who prefer a 6-8 hour journey with no changes than a 4-5 hour journey with complicated change in London, or a hike between 2 separate stations in Birmingham

 

[Ianno87]

There are clearly those who prefer a 6-8 hour journey with no changes than a 4-5 hour journey with complicated change in London, or a hike between 2 separate stations in Birmingham

Clearly....but how many of them actually are there and is it worth the tail wagging the dog of the whole network? (When by far the greatest majority of passengers are concentrated on shorter distance flows in the core)

 

[irish_rail]

Leeds - Manchester will be 30 mins with NPR and 40 mins with TRU
Manchester - Crewe will be 15-20 mins
Crewe - Birmingham is 50-60 mins

It could well be a competitive time. If the train carries the HS2 track to Curzon Street, the Manchester route will win hands down.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Apr 2021 ==



I think there will be Bournemouth to Birmingham and Plymouth to Birmingham as there is today. The question is whether those trains carry on further north to Manchester or Leeds, or do the go to another destination (Liverpool, Hull, Leicester or Nottingham) or terminate in Birmingham instead?

Well if the plymouth trains where to instead terminate at Birmingham then that would be another way the south west loses out thanks to Hs2. So not only would our London journey times be extended due to having to stop at Old Oak Common on route to Paddington but our XC services to the north and Scotland would be scaled back to Birmingham
Doesn't seem to fair really does it when much of the country gets direct HS2 services....

 

[Metrolink]

If this country is to rebuild then our major cities need connectivity! Liverpool, Merseyside and Lancashire should without doubt be better connected to the south west and especially very large cities such as Bristol and Plymouth. If Liverpool is connected to Edinburgh and Scarborough then I see no reason why it shouldn't be connected with the likes of Bristol and Plymouth.
Plymouth gets pointless hourly trains to places like Darlington , yet what is really needed is a range of destinations, with some in the North east and some in the North west.

How about a world where the railway works for the customer and not for the railway......
The south west should have a connection with the north west, inconvenient though that may be. This is what is wrong with the current system, the customer is an after thought , second place to operational convenience. Totally wrong in my opinion. XC should be there to provide for potential custom, not just going for the easiest option operationally.

I literally couldn’t agree more. So I have worked out a plan involving cities in the North West/ North East/ South West. Thus my plan would look like this:

1tph Liverpool - Bristol (- Exeter) via Birmingham

1tph Chester - Oxford via Nuneaton and Leamington

1tph Manchester - Paignton via Birmingham and Bristol

1tph Bradford - Cardiff

1tph Plymouth - Hull

1tph Brighton - Manchester via Reading and Gatwick

 

[Aictos]

I literally couldn’t agree more. So I have worked out a plan involving cities in the North West/ North East/ South West. Thus my plan would look like this:

1tph Liverpool - Bristol (- Exeter) via Birmingham

1tph Chester - Oxford via Nuneaton and Leamington

1tph Manchester - Paignton via Birmingham and Bristol

1tph Bradford - Cardiff

1tph Plymouth - Hull

1tph Brighton - Manchester via Reading and Gatwick

Your 1tph Brighton to Manchester has no chance in happening simply because of how busy the Brighton Mainline is, that's why the former XC service was withheld. There simply isn't the paths available for it.

The only one above that has any chance of succeeding is probably the Manchester to Paignton service.

Perhaps a different idea would be to merge the existing XC and TPE operations and bring them under one TOC.

 

[swt_passenger]

I literally couldn’t agree more. So I have worked out a plan involving cities in the North West/ North East/ South West. Thus my plan would look like this:

1tph Liverpool - Bristol (- Exeter) via Birmingham

1tph Chester - Oxford via Nuneaton and Leamington

1tph Manchester - Paignton via Birmingham and Bristol

1tph Bradford - Cardiff

1tph Plymouth - Hull

1tph Brighton - Manchester via Reading and Gatwick

Yet again, what about Bournemouth and Southampton? Why does their current well used hourly XC service suddenly get abandoned, yet Brighton gains one, using a route already known to have no capacity for XC?

 

[Aictos]

Yet again, what about Bournemouth and Southampton? Why does their current well used hourly XC service suddenly get abandoned, yet Brighton gains one, using a route already known to have no capacity for XC?

My point exactly, there's no capacity for a XC Brighton service

The proposed services aren't thought out at all.

 

[quantinghome]

How about a world where the railway works for the customer and not for the railway......
The south west should have a connection with the north west, inconvenient though that may be. This is what is wrong with the current system, the customer is an after thought , second place to operational convenience. Totally wrong in my opinion. XC should be there to provide for potential custom, not just going for the easiest option operationally.

I don't think the customer is an afterthought in the current set up; the railway is simply maximising available capacity. How is this not to the benefit of passengers?

A regular clockface timetable is more suitable for most passengers. Providing irregular services between a wide combination of origins and destinations reduces reliability and increases costs, none of which is to the benefit of passengers. Complexity kills. The railway must focus on what it is good at - transporting large numbers of passengers from A to B with a regular timetable that it simple to understand. That's what most passengers want. If this means reducing the number of direct journeys then so be it. It's what other countries with better used rail systems do. There's a lesson there.

That said, once HS2 is built there are creative options XC should pursue, but within the context of a regular clockface timetable. Here's what I would do:

1. No XC services north of the M62 corridor. These will be much quicker using HS2.
2. A completely regular pattern service. No skipping Burton or Tamworth for example.
3. Serve places not served by HS2: Birmingham - Leeds should go via Barnsley and Wakefield Kirkgate. Birmingham - Doncaster should extend to Hull, not Newcastle.
4. Certain services e.g. Birmingham to Nottingham should be removed from XC.
5. Services like Birmingham-Liverpool should be added to XC.
6. All XC to operate as through services at Birmingham. Work out which combinations of services north and south of Birmingham will yield the greatest number of through passengers / minimise transfers. The difference between 'intercity' and 'regional' XC routes will be much reduced post-HS2 so demand should be better balanced.

 

[Devonian]

Before we write off traffic from Plymouth to the north of England as a niche market, may I add that those trains have significant value in the other direction: Devon and the so-far-not-mentioned Cornwall are major holiday destinations who receive a lot of visitors from the north, and having direct services from Scotland, the north of England and the midlands is still valued accordingly, particularly as we would like fewer visitors to come by car.

Changing at Birmingham or crossing London are fine for the train-savvy, nimble and time-sensitive, but less attractive options to anyone juggling kiddies and holiday luggage, even if the direct journey is slower. It's not just the inconvenience of switching trains: it's the uncertainty of making the connection and losing booked seats together.

It's clearly true that travelling north from Birmingham itself will be quicker by HS2. But on journeys between the south coast/south-west and north/Scotland you need to factor in the inter-station transfer and suitable connection allowances, so changing at Birmingham to HS2 for services north won't reduce journey times by much in comparison to the overall journey time, and through trains to the north will remain an attractive option.

And given that CrossCountry certainly used to encourage people to change at quieter stations outside Birmingham to reduce crowding and inter-platform transfers at New Street, I wonder how sensible it would be to force everyone off every XC train at that station, particularly if more people are alighting there from the central core to switch to transfer to HS2 for London, rather than continuing to allow many to travel through.

So to answer the original question: yes, long-distance direct still does have value for those of us at or near the extremities. And yes, it would be nice to have a wider range of links to and from both sides of the north. Like we used to.

 

[Purple Orange]

I don't think the customer is an afterthought in the current set up; the railway is simply maximising available capacity. How is this not to the benefit of passengers?

A regular clockface timetable is more suitable for most passengers. Providing irregular services between a wide combination of origins and destinations reduces reliability and increases costs, none of which is to the benefit of passengers. Complexity kills. The railway must focus on what it is good at - transporting large numbers of passengers from A to B with a regular timetable that it simple to understand. That's what most passengers want. If this means reducing the number of direct journeys then so be it. It's what other countries with better used rail systems do. There's a lesson there.

That said, once HS2 is built there are creative options XC should pursue, but within the context of a regular clockface timetable. Here's what I would do:

1. No XC services north of the M62 corridor. These will be much quicker using HS2.
2. A completely regular pattern service. No skipping Burton or Tamworth for example.
3. Serve places not served by HS2: Birmingham - Leeds should go via Barnsley and Wakefield Kirkgate. Birmingham - Doncaster should extend to Hull, not Newcastle.
4. Certain services e.g. Birmingham to Nottingham should be removed from XC.
5. Services like Birmingham-Liverpool should be added to XC.
6. All XC to operate as through services at Birmingham. Work out which combinations of services north and south of Birmingham will yield the greatest number of through passengers / minimise transfers. The difference between 'intercity' and 'regional' XC routes will be much reduced post-HS2 so demand should be better balanced.

Agreed. Also given that HS2 takes the majority of passengers from the Manchester & Leeds services, I would argue that there should be no more than 1 tph to Manchester & Leeds on the classic network, plus they should incorporate more stops.

 

[Glenn1969]

My XC timetable

As now to Birmingham

Then Half hourly to Meadowhall, 1tp2h each to Barnsley/Bradford, Doncaster/Hull, Doncaster/Cleethorpes and York/Middlesbrough

Western service diverted hourly to Preston/Blackpool and Chester/North Wales after Crewe

Manchester would be HS2 and Liverpool served half hourly as now by LNR

Thoughts?

 

[Purple Orange]

Before we write off traffic from Plymouth to the north of England as a niche market, may I add that those trains have significant value in the other direction: Devon and the so-far-not-mentioned Cornwall are major holiday destinations who receive a lot of visitors from the north, and having direct services from Scotland, the north of England and the midlands is still valued accordingly, particularly as we would like fewer visitors to come by car.

Changing at Birmingham or crossing London are fine for the train-savvy, nimble and time-sensitive, but less attractive options to anyone juggling kiddies and holiday luggage, even if the direct journey is slower. It's not just the inconvenience of switching trains: it's the uncertainty of making the connection and losing booked seats together.

It's clearly true that travelling north from Birmingham itself will be quicker by HS2. But on journeys between the south coast/south-west and north/Scotland you need to factor in the inter-station transfer and suitable connection allowances, so changing at Birmingham to HS2 for services north won't reduce journey times by much in comparison to the overall journey time, and through trains to the north will remain an attractive option.

And given that CrossCountry certainly used to encourage people to change at quieter stations outside Birmingham to reduce crowding and inter-platform transfers at New Street, I wonder how sensible it would be to force everyone off every XC train at that station, particularly if more people are alighting there from the central core to switch to transfer to HS2 for London, rather than continuing to allow many to travel through.

So to answer the original question: yes, long-distance direct still does have value for those of us at or near the extremities. And yes, it would be nice to have a wider range of links to and from both sides of the north. Like we used to.

I think that people are overstating the number of people who are happy to take a slower but direct train. That might be fine for enthusiasts, but most people want to get from A to B in the shortest possible time and spend as little time as possible on the train.

Let’s not forget that a family with luggage is likely to go by car more than likely. Also XC has often encouraged people to change trains. XC as it is, is not very competitive with driving in terms of journey time. Therefore I see a decision that needs t be made for XC services:

1. Does it stay as it is and target the few long distance travellers who are happy to take a longer journey, lose passengers to HS2 and struggle to justify taking up paths on the WCML and ECML with very short trains?
2. Does it opt to target more shorter distance travellers? Add more stops to the routes it serves, thus it will be slower between end points, but cover greater markets along the way.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Any proposal that results in more passengers having to change trains at Birmingham (even a cross platform transfer at New Street) is just bonkers.

 

[Metrolink]

Yet again, what about Bournemouth and Southampton? Why does their current well used hourly XC service suddenly get abandoned, yet Brighton gains one, using a route already known to have no capacity for XC?

Oh, and the existing Bournemouth - Manchester Service, forgot to mention.

No XC services north of the M62 corridor. These will be much quicker using HS2.

Agreed.

A completely regular pattern service. No skipping Burton or Tamworth for example.

Definitely and Stafford and Congleton aswell should be included.

Serve places not served by HS2: Birmingham - Leeds should go via Barnsley and Wakefield Kirkgate. Birmingham - Doncaster should extend to Hull, not Newcastle.

This one, should be included in most long distance services. Serve places that don’t have cross Britain services. And Newcastle has enough services anyway.

Certain services e.g. Birmingham to Nottingham should be removed from XC.

I disagree, I think these services should be included into the wider long distance services e.g Nuneaton - Leicester could be part of a service originating in Manchester/ Liverpool/ Crewe.

The rest of what your said makes perfect sense and should be included in the new XC timetable (if there is one ).

Before we write off traffic from Plymouth to the north of England as a niche market, may I add that those trains have significant value in the other direction: Devon and the so-far-not-mentioned Cornwall are major holiday destinations who receive a lot of visitors from the north, and having direct services from Scotland, the north of England and the midlands is still valued accordingly, particularly as we would like fewer visitors to come by car.

With this I totally agree. I have booked a holiday to Devon and couldn’t find train tickets that don’t require me to change in Leeds or Birmingham. I totally agree that more cars need to be taken off the road seeming that there are no direct services south west of Birmingham from Manchester or Liverpool which isn’t even thought about being timetable in as an origin or destination station from others. Even if there wasn’t the market for holidayers from the Manchester or Liverpool area, it’s a vital cross country connection that needs to withstand for the next couple of years. The North West is almost cut off from the South West and vice versa.

 

[Glenn1969]

I don't and have always thought many people are put off by the thought of having to change trains or using overcrowded short trains and not getting a seat. My disabilty means I'm one of them

 

[Metrolink]

P

Any proposal that results in more passengers having to change trains at Birmingham (even a cross platform transfer at New Street) is just bonkers.

precisely.

 

[Purple Orange]

Any proposal that results in more passengers having to change trains at Birmingham (even a cross platform transfer at New Street) is just bonkers.

Yet that is what HS2 is proposing, but either at Curzon Street or OOC.

 

[Metrolink]

Your 1tph Brighton to Manchester has no chance in happening simply because of how busy the Brighton Mainline is, that's why the former XC service was withheld. There simply isn't the paths available for it.

The only one above that has any chance of succeeding is probably the Manchester to Paignton service.

Perhaps a different idea would be to merge the existing XC and TPE operations and bring them under one TOC.

Do you mean merge all TPE operations or just the East to West?

To compromise what you have said about chance of success, could Newcastle services be curtailed to Leeds and extended to Bradford or Hull? The Edinburgh services to Plymouth can stay and Birmingham -
Cardiff shuttle services can be added

 

[Bletchleyite]

Any proposal that results in more passengers having to change trains at Birmingham (even a cross platform transfer at New Street) is just bonkers.

It's not, because if the change is smooth and HS2 is involved, it'll be loads quicker, and with all that capacity on HS2 possibly cheaper too.

It will be interesting to also see "whither* North Wales direct Euston services" - not because I think they should be withdrawn, but because people might actually choose to stop using them in favour of a connection at Crewe, because HS2 may well be both cheaper and about an hour quicker.

* I feel quite literary getting to use that word!

 

[Glenn1969]

I suggested an XC timetable upthread and wondered what people think of it?

 

[Metrolink]

I suggested an XC timetable upthread and wondered what people think of it?

Just replied on the WCML thread. I’m glad someone has the same thinking as me .

 

[Purple Orange]

At the end of the day, XC success will be derived from it’s ability to get passengers on it’s trains. Focussing on the small holiday crowd in the summer months won’t get them through a year.

The whole service needs to change in order to survive for the long term. What MER is proposing is most likely how XC will go forward.

My XC timetable

As now to Birmingham

Then Half hourly to Meadowhall, 1tp2h each to Barnsley/Bradford, Doncaster/Hull, Doncaster/Cleethorpes and York/Middlesbrough

Western service diverted hourly to Preston/Blackpool and Chester/North Wales after Crewe

Manchester would be HS2 and Liverpool served half hourly as now by LNR

Thoughts?

Yes, a change of northern terminus destinations is the best way forward I think, but it needs to keep it’s simplicity too.

 

[Metrolink]

At the end of the day, XC success will be derived from it’s ability to get passengers on it’s trains. Focussing on the small holiday crowd in the summer months won’t get them through a year.

The whole service needs to change in order to survive for the long term. What MER is proposing is most likely how XC will go forward.


Yes, a change of northern terminus destinations is the best way forward I think, but it needs to keep it’s simplicity too.

As @Glenn1969, yourself and I have mentioned, what would be the best origin and destinations to provide the best connectivity across the country? Liverpool - Reading and Bournemouth definitely for me.

 

[Glenn1969]

I left Liverpool off my XC network because it is served to Brum by LNWR. I sent my XC North Western Services to Blackpool and Chester instead

 

[Metrolink]

I left Liverpool off my XC network because it is served to Brum by LNWR. I sent my XC North Western Services to Blackpool and Chester instead

Liverpool hasn’t got a fast service, LNWR is a stopper service and it’s not good enough. I guess you can change at Crewe but that loops back onto the point of no one wants to change. Blackpool and Crewe are both good ideas however.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I left Liverpool off my XC network because it is served to Brum by LNWR. I sent my XC North Western Services to Blackpool and Chester instead

How about sending the XC to Liverpool and one of the two LNRs to Blackpool instead? That would provide a useful local service on that part of the WCML which is only served by ICs.

That, or send one to Manchester, which post HS2 will be more in need of a local service to Birmingham than an IC one, as the IC one will be HS2.

 

[Metrolink]

How about sending the XC to Liverpool and one of the two LNRs to Blackpool instead? That would provide a useful local service on that part of the WCML which is only served by ICs.

That’s seems like a compromise that will better benefit Blackpool and Kirkam and Wesham. That way Liverpool isn’t as isolated compared to the rest of Britain.

 

[Glenn1969]

How about sending the XC to Liverpool and one of the two LNRs to Blackpool instead? That would provide a useful local service on that part of the WCML which is only served by ICs.

That, or send one to Manchester, which post HS2 will be more in need of a local service to Birmingham than an IC one, as the IC one will be HS2.

agreed

 

[Devonian]

I think that people are overstating the number of people who are happy to take a slower but direct train. That might be fine for enthusiasts, but most people want to get from A to B in the shortest possible time and spend as little time as possible on the train.

I suspect that the opposite is often true: the enthusiast knows the system well and can make swift transfers with confidence, and knows what to do when a connection is missed. The infrequent traveller sees a connection as a point of uncertainty (particularly as there is a general assumption that British trains run late). The Western Route Study published by Network Rail in 2015 noted this:

For passengers, it is preferable where possible to complete a journey on one train rather than two, or at least to have the option to do so even when faster journey opportunities may be available by changing trains. This is particularly important for infrequent users, people with restricted mobility, or passengers with luggage (especially those travelling to airports).
Network Rail, Western Route Study, 2015

As for the time savings, it would not be unreasonable to assume that it might take 5 minutes for the infrequent traveller to get off the train and find their way out of New Street, allow 5 minutes to wait for a shuttle, 5 minutes to get to Curzon Street and 5 to find and board the right train - if you are travelling without anything to slow you down. That's 20 minutes without allowing for a delayed connection, for which we'd better add another 10. The time saving by using HS2 to travel north is currently estimated at 45 minutes to Oxenholme and 49 to Edinburgh: so in reality, you might save 15 - 20 minutes overall with a non-trivial change in the middle. That's assuming that the timetable allows an immediate transfer and you don't have to wait for the next train.

 

[HSTEd]

Best option may be to run South West-Birmingham trains into Moor Street instead of New Street.

Also make sure the WLL access at OOC is top notch