Which re-opening would have the best Business Case?

[nuneatonmark]

As far as I am aware there are only 2 current significant re-openings in delivery rather than 'pie in the sky'

1. Borders Rail and
2. East-West Rail.

If the Business Cases have stacked up for these, what other re-openings make the most sense and why?

Matlock to Buxton? Woodhead? A no-brainer for me must be the Ivanhoe line from Leicester to Burton. Most of the infrastructure is there already and it connects quite a number of towns that need economic regeneration that are a long way from existing stations.

 

[steamybrian]

Bere Alston to Tavistock and Bristol to Portishead are both in the final phases of planning.

Although this subject has been discussed before my other favourites to reopen are-
Uckfield to Lewes (rejected by Network Rail hock
Bere Alston (Tavistock)- Okehampton- Crediton (government thinktank )
Colne to Skipton

 

[Masbroughlad]

Telford to Stafford

 

[The Planner]

Telford to Stafford

Not a chance.

Cross City to Burton and Ivanhoe if councils properly got behind it and sorted out a chord at the Leicester end. A big section 106 agreement would help both although the Cross City extension is more likely.

 

[northwichcat]

Note the Todmorden Curve is effectively a reopening as the track used to be there before services were axed and it was ripped up.

A feasibility report done by independent consultants found Northwich to Sandbach re-opening to have a benefit:cost ratio of 5:1, which is double what is required for a re-opening yet Network Rail aren't considering re-opening at the line at this stage.

 

[theshillito]

A feasibility report done by independent consultants found Northwich to Sandbach re-opening to have a benefit:cost ratio of 5:1, which is double what is required for a re-opening yet Network Rail aren't considering re-opening at the line at this stage.

From what I've heard, NR didn't really want it open as it's too useful as a diversionary route when the Crewe to Chester line is closed for whatever reason. Living in Crewe and working just outside of Knutsford, I'd quite like to be able to get public transport to work for a change as, at the moment, both the time and cost are nearly triple to go by train rather than driving.

Telford to Stafford is an interesting one as that was part of the initially proposed (and rejected) Virgin service to London via Shrewsbury and Telford. Admittedly, Virgin weren't happy about the times they were given, but never say never with that bit of track!

 

[Carlisle]

Although this subject has been discussed before my other favourites to reopen are-
Uckfield to Lewes (rejected by Network Rail hock

I don't think that should take priority cos it's merely a strategic diversionary route rather than a sizeable community that would genuinely benefit from the re introduction of rail services

 

[muddythefish]

Do BCRs take into account the wider effects of rail reopenings such as property price increases, social benefits and greater employment opportunities ?

 

[NotATrainspott]

At this point in time the best reopenings would be ones that could either use only trains that already exist or ones that could easily take advantage of a new order of EMUs. Airdire-Bathgate was easy because it was possible to move stock around based upon the new order of 380s and it freed up the Bathgate DMUs for other purposes. At the moment useful reopenings like Leven and St Andrews, or local stations between Ladybank and Perth, aren't likely just because they would require extra DMUs, and reopening them is a luxury compared to the necessity of providing capacity to replace non-compliant DMUs down south. Once Fife is electrified though it makes much more sense to do these, especially when a large new fleet of trains would be needed for other Fife Circle/Perth/Dundee services and once electrified the cost of running the extra services would be small.

 

[jopsuk]

There's a big local campaign to get Cambridge-Haverhill reopened, partly as Haverhill has plans to double in size.

 

[Tumbleweed]

Pontyclun to Beddau? Has a high BCR?

Aberdare to Hirwaun?

 

[route:oxford]

If the Business Cases have stacked up for these, what other re-openings make the most sense and why?

Will you permit an easement of the unwritten rule that demands that every potential re-opening must follow the exact route of the closed route without deviation?

If so...

Carterton to Oxford, Garsington Road.

Would probably mitigate against the daily 10 mile tailback on the A40. Around 20,000 people work within a 5-10 minute walk of this location. A further 3-4000 work within a short walk of a Littlemore stop.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Telford to Stafford is an interesting one as that was part of the initially proposed (and rejected) Virgin service to London via Shrewsbury and Telford. Admittedly, Virgin weren't happy about the times they were given, but never say never with that bit of track!

It wasn't. The route was Shrewsbury, Telford, Oxley curve (just north of Wolverhampton), Stafford. No new or reopened railway was proposed.

The numbers don't stack up for that service as it is but they certainly wouldn't if the Stafford - Telford route had to be reopened for it.

 

[Altnabreac]

To have a good business case you need:
A: lots of passengers
B: low cost of restoration
C: low cost of operation

The schemes that will deliver this usually have the following features:
1: Serve a town(s) of 10,000 population not currently connected by rail.
2: Connect that town(s) with a major city that provides good employment opportunities (broadly the UK cities with 300,000+ populations but also some smaller places with very strong economies).
3: Utilise a disused line or broadly unobstructed disused alignment
4: Operate as an extension of an existing service to minimise stock requirement and terminal capacity usage.

Once you know these factors you can work out within 10 minutes that your proposed reopening is not viable if it does not meet A, B, C, 1, 2 and 3. You can get away without 4 if you are serving a terminal with spare capacity but it will impact the business case.

The other reopening that can work is where you connect an existing rail served town to a different major employment centre from its current connections or by a significantly quicker route. Otherwise the same rules apply.

 

[yorksrob]

Note the Todmorden Curve is effectively a reopening as the track used to be there before services were axed and it was ripped up.

A feasibility report done by independent consultants found Northwich to Sandbach re-opening to have a benefit:cost ratio of 5:1, which is double what is required for a re-opening yet Network Rail aren't considering re-opening at the line at this stage.

Indeed. Benefit:cost ratios only seem to be used to trash proposals.

 

[Aictos]

Bere Alston to Tavistock and Bristol to Portishead are both in the final phases of planning.

Although this subject has been discussed before my other favourites to reopen are-
Uckfield to Lewes (rejected by Network Rail hock
Bere Alston (Tavistock)- Okehampton- Crediton (government thinktank )
Colne to Skipton

Colne to Skipton be good, as you could IF it's viable extend the Blackpool South to Colne services to Skipton with connecting services to Bradford/Leeds now I know the hourly Blackpool North to York already serves these stations but just extending it one stop could in theory open up plenty of journey opportunities for locals.

Uckfield to Lewes well what services existing or new would use this route and what would the Bluebell Railway have to say about it?

Bere Alston (Tavistock)- Okehampton- Crediton How would this be done?

 

[yorksrob]

Personslly, I think the most likely cases are those that have rails in place.

Also, perhaps those that could serve several objectives, for example, the Peak line, potentially opening up local tourism, providing a new faster inter-regional route between the North West and the East Midlands, an alternative route from Manchester to London, relieving the Hope Valley etc.

 

[Altnabreac]

Uckfield to Lewes well what services existing or new would use this route and what would the Bluebell Railway have to say about it?

Probably not as much as the Lavender Line would have to say...

 

[Bertie the bus]

Indeed. Benefit:cost ratios only seem to be used to trash proposals.

That's the whole point of it. If a scheme doesn't reach a certain threshold it will never happen. If it does it might, depending on available budget and other factors. It has never been BCR > x and the scheme will go ahead and nor is that its intended use.

 

[Altnabreac]

At this point in time the best reopenings would be ones that could either use only trains that already exist or ones that could easily take advantage of a new order of EMUs. Airdire-Bathgate was easy because it was possible to move stock around based upon the new order of 380s and it freed up the Bathgate DMUs for other purposes. At the moment useful reopenings like Leven and St Andrews, or local stations between Ladybank and Perth, aren't likely just because they would require extra DMUs, and reopening them is a luxury compared to the necessity of providing capacity to replace non-compliant DMUs down south. Once Fife is electrified though it makes much more sense to do these, especially when a large new fleet of trains would be needed for other Fife Circle/Perth/Dundee services and once electrified the cost of running the extra services would be small.

Agreed stock availability is necessary but there is no DMU shortage in Scotland at present so I'd still expect Leven to be the next Scottish line reopening and for it to happen before electrification (let's say 2020, as it's in CP6 and towards the end of the next Holyrood parliament.)

It certainly passes my 7 tests comfortably.

 

[Mutant Lemming]

The Tottenham South Curve maybe ?

 

[leightonbd]

Aberdeen to Peterhead/ Fraserburgh, and also to Banchory?

Aberdeen has catastrophic traffic and absurd property prices with many commuting in from miles away.

 

[clc]

Paisley Canal to Bridge of Weir. Has a population of around 15000 not currently served by rail if you include Kilmacolm and Houston. It wouldn't require any additional paths into Glasgow and would also provide a diversionary route for Ayrshire services.

 

[21C101]

Horsted Keynes to Ardingly providing a diversionary route for the Brighton line.

Also a short brand new line from Walkden to Ellenbrook then turn the busway back to railway with stations at Ellenbrook, Tyldesley and Leigh.

Finally a new line as follows. New Chord from Bedford Bletchley line facing north to Midland Main slows line facing south, north of Ampthill Tunnel, then leaving the Midland Main line slows facing south immediately after Luton Airport Parkway, into a tunnel with a station under the airport terminal at Luton then along a new route east and under the East Coast Main line to join the Hertford - Stevenage line just south of Stevenage.

This would complete the Oxford Cambridge route and enable Oxford to Cambridge trains to have intercity interchange with both the Midland Main line at Luton and the ECML at Stevenage. Also no reversing. This one (although not the station below Luton Airport) is one of the options for the central bit of the East West route and apparently the one with the best business case.

 

[30907]

Carterton to Oxford, Garsington Road.

Would probably mitigate against the daily 10 mile tailback on the A40. Around 20,000 people work within a 5-10 minute walk of this location. A further 3-4000 work within a short walk of a Littlemore stop.

First reaction is that it's a non starter. Second, after a quick look at googlemaps, it's not so daft after all, as the only bit that's become a road is at Eynsham. Don't know how you'd deal with Witney though...wonder what the MP thinks?

 

[21C101]

First reaction is that it's a non starter. Second, after a quick look at googlemaps, it's not so daft after all, as the only bit that's become a road is at Eynsham. Don't know how you'd deal with Witney though...wonder what the MP thinks?

Diesel Tram train would solve those problems, you could also run it into the city centre as well. Oxford station isn't brillantly sited for commuting. You could also run on street to Botley including the Park and Ride off the A34.

You could also run south to stations at Kennington,Littlemore, Blackbird Leys and Park and Ride at Wheatley on the A40 London Road up the old Thame branch.

 

[The Planner]

Good luck at getting anything like that into Oxford city centre, you would need to get rid of the buses first. The furthest you will get up the old Thame branch is Blackbird Leys, the rest is too built upon with very expensive houses.

 

[Busaholic]

Horsted Keynes to Ardingly providing a diversionary route for the Brighton line.

Also a short brand new line from Walkden to Ellenbrook then turn the busway back to railway with stations at Ellenbrook, Tyldesley and Leigh.

Finally a new line as follows. New Chord from Bedford Bletchley line facing north to Midland Main slows line facing south, north of Ampthill Tunnel, then leaving the Midland Main line slows facing south immediately after Luton Airport Parkway, into a tunnel with a station under the airport terminal at Luton then along a new route east and under the East Coast Main line to join the Hertford - Stevenage line just south of Stevenage.

This would complete the Oxford Cambridge route and enable Oxford to Cambridge trains to have intercity interchange with both the Midland Main line at Luton and the ECML at Stevenage. Also no reversing. This one (although not the station below Luton Airport) is one of the options for the central bit of the East West route and apparently the one with the best business case.

The new line you propose makes excellent sense in its own right, but could also form the basis of an Outer London/ Home Counties orbital route. Unlike some other suggestions on this theme, I'd see this as a series of different schemes, predominantly heavy rail but also with tram-train, roughly in M25 land but probably within it on the east and southern sides which are not as built-up.

 

[kevconnor]

On cost benefit ratio can anyone recall what came out from the study a few years ago in relation the the proposed upgrade of the East Lanc Railway line from Castleton up to Rawtenstall? Maybe a nice Idea but as the main conurbation of Bury is already covered by Metrolink it may not have an adequate catchment area.

Another that I think should be reconsidered, especially with the planned issues with Euston and HS2, is the Midland Mainline link through Derbyshire High Peaks to Manchester.

 

[The Planner]

Woodhead is always the perennial favourite, won't happen though.