Which classes may be nearing their end?

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well. I have heard a source saying that Southern's 455/8 will be going but I do not know which Rolling Stock will be replacing the Southern 455/8's. In the next year. I think we can say farewell to 455/8's.

The only quick fix for that to happen is to recycle the GN387's back south and stick the 379's on the GN although I believe the 379's are one of the more expensive EMU's to lease currently. However, the owning company sold them last year for close to written down value which indicates they must have had an income stream certainty for several years so presumably DofT are liable anyhow so will get rehomed. So they will still save the cost of the 455/8's as they are probably on short term leases can crystallise savings quicker.

 

[43096]

The only quick fix for that to happen is to recycle the GN387's back south and stick the 379's on the GN although I believe the 379's are one of the more expensive EMU's to lease currently. However, the owning company sold them last year for close to written down value which indicates they must have had an income stream certainty for several years so presumably DofT are liable anyhow so will get rehomed. So they will still save the cost of the 455/8's as they are probably on short term leases can crystallise savings quicker.

The GN route has 35 387s, which the 379s won’t replace entirely. My solution would be to transfer the 37 350/2s when West Mids replace them, which would make the GN GTR services all Siemens units (350/700/717) and enable Hornsey to be handed over to Siemens entirely to maintain them.

 

[778]

The 165/166s could last for a very long time. Can't see them being replaced until the Chiltern lines are electrified.

357s will also not be replaced any time soon.

 

[supervc-10]

What will eventually replace 156s between Barrow in Furness and Carlisle as 195s aren’t cleared for the route?

I wonder if the route will be the last bastion of the 156s before some works to allow the 195s to fit?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The GN route has 35 387s, which the 379s won’t replace entirely. My solution would be to transfer the 37 350/2s when West Mids replace them, which would make the GN GTR services all Siemens units (350/700/717) and enable Hornsey to be handed over to Siemens entirely to maintain them.

Yup that has is eminently logical as well so unlikely to happen!!

Then what to do with the 379's - why not stick shoes on them (they are standard electrostar traction package) and send them to Southern or SE who already have oodles of electrostars therefore following your lead in having a standard traction type for maintenance.

 

[LOL The Irony]

The problem with the 150s... is that there isn’t really a viable replacement for them.

Cascaded 156s & 158s, themselves being replaced/supplemented by bi-mode Civitys.

Arriva expressed interest in more Civitys arriving by the end of the contract, before they lost it. DOR Northern also kept this aspiration but I haven't heard anything since covid.

 

[Geeves]

Northern's wish (well the MDs) is for one single EMU and DMU fleet for the entire Northern network.

 

[Class 466]

Well. I have heard a source saying that Southern's 455/8 will be going but I do not know which Rolling Stock will be replacing the Southern 455/8's. In the next year. I think we can say farewell to 455/8's.

313/2s will easliy go before 455s on SN - replacing 42 455/8 diagrams isn't going to be easy!

 

[brad465]

The 165/166s could last for a very long time. Can't see them being replaced until the Chiltern lines are electrified.

They'll also be around for a long time I expect with GWR: they got their cascade to the Bristol and Exeter areas and surrounding routes, and I doubt any replacement will come in until key routes get electrified and/or alternative fuel/battery technology improves, such that the 2040 ban on pure diesel stock is met. I expect the 150s and possibly also 158s will be ending service before 165/166s do, and there are no clear plans on them going anywhere right now.

 

[43096]

Then what to do with the 379's - why not stick shoes on them (they are standard electrostar traction package) and send them to Southern or SE who already have oodles of electrostars therefore following your lead in having a standard traction type for maintenance.

Perhaps send them to South Eastern to release the 377s back to GTR/Southern? Between them and the 387s you’d be close to binning all the 313s and 455s.

 

[Bill57p9]

I wonder if the route will be the last bastion of the 156s before some works to allow the 195s to fit?

Ayr - Stranraer, the West Highland Line and the GSW (Glasgow - Kilmarnock - Dumfries - Carlisle) share the same guage issues and are stuck with 156s as a result.
ScotRail Alliance have published a plan to replace the first two with "alternative fuel" and the GSW with partial electrification somewhere in the early 2030s.
Of course these routes are also relatively lengthy and struggle financially, so are a real challenge.

 

[Mat17]

I could definitely envisage the 158/159 fleets getting hybrid conversions for their final decade in service.

Looking at the 769 fleet, I can't help but think maybe it'll turn trains that work and are fairly reliable into trains with issues.

 

[Mikey C]

It would seem odd to replace 455s on the inner suburban routes with displaced 377s, even the high density ones, rather than "proper" metro stock

After all nobody would suggest sending the 379s to Southeastern to displace 375s to replace some of the Networkers.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It would seem odd to replace 455s on the inner suburban routes with displaced 377s, even the high density ones, rather than "proper" metro stock

After all nobody would suggest sending the 379s to Southeastern to displace 375s to replace some of the Networkers.

I you were starting from scratch than a 710/717 internal layout would be ideal unit for Southern Metro area but we aren't in that space currently so with the mantra of running the railway for least cost for next few years leads to less than optimal solutions. In all probability DofT won't even manage sub optimal.

 

[LowLevel]

Chiltern mainline mk3 coaches but for how long two years max.
Plus the high costs in keeping these running.

If they're still in traffic in 12 months with Chiltern I'd be very surprised, more's the pity.

 

[Jamesrob637]

26000 Sybic in France
Re 4/4 in Switzerland
BR120 in Germany
Some classes of Shinkansen.

 

[XAM2175]

BR120 in Germany

You're a wee bit late there; DB Fernverkehr parked all theirs in July 2020 and the last ones in service with DB Regio were withdrawn at the December 2020 timetable change.

(also it's probably better for organisation if this particular thread stays focused on GB)

 

[GEC465]

It would seem odd to replace 455s on the inner suburban routes with displaced 377s, even the high density ones, rather than "proper" metro stock

After all nobody would suggest sending the 379s to Southeastern to displace 375s to replace some of the Networkers.

Doesn't seem odd since it's better to standardise. Also 379s are overhead only so not a great comparison

 

[D365]

BR120 in Germany

Aren’t the 101s being withdrawn too?

 

[Carntyne]

318 320 and 334 units will all go soon.

 

[JonathanH]

318 320 and 334 units will all go soon.

No replacements on order though. In that sense, their removal isn't yet 'soon'.

 

[physics34]

Well. I have heard a source saying that Southern's 455/8 will be going but I do not know which Rolling Stock will be replacing the Southern 455/8's. In the next year. I think we can say farewell to 455/8's.

The condition of them, many of them externally poor, suggest their end is near.....
My hunch is SWR 455s will be coming over as a stop gap.

 

[JonathanH]

The condition of them, many of them externally poor, suggest their end is near.....
My hunch is SWR 455s will be coming over as a stop gap.

As has been pointed out before SWR 455s are owned by the wrong leasing company for a simple swap.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Doesn't seem odd since it's better to standardise. Also 379s are overhead only so not a great comparison

Only need to stick shoegear on and run a cable to the front end of the inverter package which is standard electrostar Mitrac so probable has a hole blanked off to receive it already!. Bigger issue is that they will probably need a software update to ensure power draw is constrained the same as 377s are and no doubt a load of approvals. So as 387's used to run on the Southern they should be readily transferrable so this is more likely outcome in these days of keeping costs down.

 

[Mikey C]

As has been pointed out before SWR 455s are owned by the wrong leasing company for a simple swap.

Why would that be a problem?

You end the lease on the Southern 455s, and start a new lease on the SWR 455s.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Why would that be a problem?

You end the lease on the Southern 455s, and start a new lease on the SWR 455s.

If there is no plan to move any other units into Southern to replace 455's it would be scandalous for SWRs 455's to be scrapped as they are more energy efficient in having regen let alone the need for less maintenance.

 

[SC318250]

318 320 and 334 units will all go soon.

the 320 have just had a Tbox overhaul and relivery, and the Class 318 later this week will start to go for overhaul and relivery, with the overhaul programme running until end of 2023, so I think it will be at least 6 to 8 years they will last for

 

[Minstral25]

If there is no plan to move any other units into Southern to replace 455's it would be scandalous for SWRs 455's to be scrapped as they are more energy efficient in having regen let alone the need for less maintenance.

Agree with the principle of what you say but don't Southern 455's have a different traction package and door operation procedures to the SWR 455's, which would require a lot of training for the conversion course for both the Drivers and maintenance staff.

Making staff available for training time is something GTR seems to struggle with considering the regular shortage of drivers causing cancellations.

 

[Meglodon 5]

I wonder when the 317s will go. It'll mark the end of an era when they do though. Still doesn't make sense to me why younger trains (365s) are being scrapped while there are still 2 GA 317 units and 2 GN 317 units operating on the all-stopping service from London Liverpool Street - Cambridge North/Ely

 

[bramling]

I wonder when the 317s will go. It'll mark the end of an era when they do though. Still doesn't make sense to me why younger trains (365s) are being scrapped while there are still 2 GA 317 units and 2 GN 317 units operating on the all-stopping service from London Liverpool Street - Cambridge North/Ely

The 365s are a bit of a special case, finding themselves in the centre of a tangle of factors which just happened to all come together at once.

*The original finance agreement
*Thameslink programme
*ETCS
*GTR
*DOO monitors
*Covid
*Gatwick remodelling
*Boris Johnson
*Lack of electrification
*Surplus EMUs
*SDO needed for Royston-Cambridge

Vary any of these factors and they’d quite possibly have been happily running for another decade or more somewhere.

As I’ve intimated before, all 40 could quite happily have been gainfully employed on GN for some time to come, as things have turned out. They’d also have been quite suitable for the c2c “top-up” fleet.