Which classes may be nearing their end?

[Mikey C]

It seems a bit odd to effectively replace the Southern 455s with outer suburban 377s, when the SWR are going with dedicated metro stock stock 701 and Southeastern are adding 707s to go with with metro 376s and 465s

 

[JonathanH]

It seems a bit odd to effectively replace the Southern 455s with outer suburban 377s, when the SWR are going with dedicated metro stock stock 701 and Southeastern are adding 707s to go with with metro 376s and 465s

Yes, but it is a process which has been going on for some time. The current use of 377s and 455s is primarily driven by platform lengths (eg 10-car and 8-car operation) rather than journey distance.

That said, running 377s to Caterham, Tattenham, Epsom, Dorking and Horsham isn't that inappropriate.

701s will of course run to Reading which is over twice the distance of many of Southern's metro services.

 

[bramling]

There are a number of Southern services that aren't running and would be prime routes not to return in the future so replacing 46 455s and 19 313s seems well within reach of 29 387s moving to the operation and reorganisation of 377s. The idea of a return to 2019 service levels seems quite unlikely.

For all we know, the current level of timetable could be planned around the future fleet size.

I’m not sure it will prove politically acceptable nor sustainable to keep so many services missing from the timetable indefinitely. Certainly on the GN side complaints of overcrowding are now coming in thick and fast, and the station car parks are also filling now.

 

[Mikey C]

Yes, but it is a process which has been going on for some time. The current use of 377s and 455s is primarily driven by platform lengths (eg 10-car and 8-car operation) rather than journey distance.

That said, running 377s to Caterham, Tattenham, Epsom, Dorking and Horsham isn't that inappropriate.

701s will of course run to Reading which is over twice the distance of many of Southern's metro services.

It does look inconsistent to have 377s on shorter routes chugging through Bermondsey, Dulwich and Streatham, when the Thameslink 700s reach the Sussex Coast!

 

[FenMan]

769s?

 

[172007]

769s?

Same as 139's tbh

 

[JamesT]

222 - not sure anyone will want them. They're not compatible with the 220/221 fleets so are of little use to XC, and ScotRail may just decide to soldier on with the HSTs until electrification reaches Inverness and Aberdeen near the end of the decade. Those would have been the only reasonable alternative operators for them.

I'd be surprised if XC don't pick them up. Although they're not compatible with 220/221, they will have similar performance so could avoid the timetable issues that they currently have running HSTs. XC are already used to running incompatible train fleets with the HSTs, it's just a matter of keeping the diagrams separate.
Until someone manages to pry open the Treasury wallet for an order of new trains, cascading over all the 22x fleet to XC is the only logical solution to their overcrowding issues.

 

[physics34]

Whichever way one looks at it (and there's several permutations), the numbers don't add up without a quite substantial long-term slashing of peak services.

Even including 379s, which seems to be pretty much a certainty now, the only way a full 455 & 313 replacement can be made to work and maintaining anything like 2019 service levels is if something else is included in the mix, be that one or more of 377/5, 376 or return of 365 to GN.

379 to GN does allow the GN 387 fleet to be split though, a 50/50 split of the fleet could just about manage 313 replacement and maintaining the bulk of the GN peak extras, but not touching the 455s. This is what my money's on.

I wouldnt be surprised if Gatwick Express disappears and the red 387s become part of a common southern 387 pool, for a start they are ready to go interior wise. Apart from the few peak services many GX services pre pandemic were underused.

 

[JonathanH]

I wouldnt be surprised if Gatwick Express disappears and the red 387s become part of a common southern 387 pool, for a start they are ready to go interior wise. Apart from the few peak services many GX services pre pandemic were underused.

That is very unlikely given Gatwick Express returns with the December timetable change.

 

[Wyrleybart]

I'd be surprised if XC don't pick them up. Although they're not compatible with 220/221, they will have similar performance so could avoid the timetable issues that they currently have running HSTs. XC are already used to running incompatible train fleets with the HSTs, it's just a matter of keeping the diagrams separate.
Until someone manages to pry open the Treasury wallet for an order of new trains, cascading over all the 22x fleet to XC is the only logical solution to their overcrowding issues.

Me too.
At the moment XC operate three distinct fleets HST 170 and VOY. Although it would cost money to convert the 222s to couple to the 220 and 221, so might be unlikely, it would be very easy to train the existing VOY crews on the differences between VOY and 222. They could then operate them as a separate fleet but with the same crew. After all the majority of crews on the NE/SW corridor are competent on HST and VOY now.
The issue is finding a maintenance base for the 222s when they are kicked out of Derby Etches Park when replaced by Hitachis. Not sure if Central Rivers could cope with the entire 222 fleet in addition to all 78 Voyagers. But that assumes the 222s would transfer to XC. They might end up at Salisbury or Haymarket !!!

 

[Cowley]

We do seem to be drifting off topic somewhat here…

 

[Bevan Price]

I think the future life of 150, 156 & 158s depends on the time-scale for future electrification projects. Nobody is going to want to spend money on new dmus that may only be needed for 10-20 years.

 

[warwickshire]

Chiltern mainline mk3 coaches but for how long two years max.
Plus the high costs in keeping these running.

 

[47827]

Chiltern mainline mk3 coaches but for how long two years max.
Plus the high costs in keeping these running.

True, but they are a very comfortable way to travel in comparison to the DMU stock the line has on most services so more is the pity progress will see them off at some point.

 

[Noddy]

I think the future life of 150, 156 & 158s depends on the time-scale for future electrification projects. Nobody is going to want to spend money on new dmus that may only be needed for 10-20 years.

Given the length of the unnelectrified mainlines we have eg (Birmingham-Penzance, Glasgow-Aberdeen/Inverness), not to mention regional routes (eg Birmingham-Norwich, Cardiff-Crewe) and branch lines, and the time it takes for electrification projects to come to fruition, there is plenty of scope for replacing these. These trains are 30-35 years old already. Do we still want to be using them and their inefficient/polluting engines (by modern standards) in another 15 years time when some will be over 50 years old?

 

[physics34]

That is very unlikely given Gatwick Express returns with the December timetable change.

I think they still might make changes in the future.

 

[greyman42]

True, but they are a very comfortable way to travel in comparison to the DMU stock the line has on most services so more is the pity progress will see them off at some point.

Agreed, but passenger comfort does not seem to be very high on present day TOCs priorities. Saying that, the DMUs are better than most other DMU/EMUs.

 

[Non Multi]

Given the length of the unnelectrified mainlines we have eg (Birmingham-Penzance, Glasgow-Aberdeen/Inverness), not to mention regional routes (eg Birmingham-Norwich, Cardiff-Crewe) and branch lines, and the time it takes for electrification projects to come to fruition, there is plenty of scope for replacing these. These trains are 30-35 years old already. Do we still want to be using them and their inefficient/polluting engines (by modern standards) in another 15 years time when some will be over 50 years old?

I'd be surprised if most of the 15x DMUs were still in service beyond the standard 40-ish years, assuming the DfT is still keen on massive train fleet replacement. I could definitely envisage the 158/159 fleets getting hybrid conversions for their final decade in service.

 

[D365]

I could definitely envisage the 158/159 fleets getting hybrid conversions for their final decade in service.

Disagree - I don't think it will be technically/financially viable to hybridise anything older than Class 168.

 

[LOL The Irony]

15x replacement is scheduled to begin in Northern land in 2023 (I'm guessing 2025 delivery).

 

[py_megapixel]

15x replacement is scheduled to begin in Northern land in 2023 (I'm guessing 2025 delivery).

According to what? If it's pre-2020 then it's arguably not really relevant any more

 

[LOL The Irony]

According to what? If it's pre-2020 then it's arguably not really relevant any more

TfN's aspirations. They had a press release or something a few months back.

 

[Halish Railway]

TfN's aspirations. They had a press release or something a few months back.

ISTR it being on one of the same documents as the Manchester Recovery Taskforce plans, with something about 2022/2023 being the time that they would release an ITT.

I’m going to throw a cat among the pidgins and suggest the 333s - A couple of months ago there was a news article about Northern wanting to order more 331s in order to standardise its electric fleet. I could see such an order being used to replace 333s to homogenise Neville Hill’s EMU fleet and increase the size of the fleet to cover the post-TRU stopping services once all of them have transferred back to Northern.

 

[TrainTrackJack]

The problem with the 150s - and erstwhile the 37s - is that there isn’t really a viable replacement for them. Unless a certain Swiss manufacturer wants to make a 2 car version of the 755s; which I can’t see happening really, then I reckon the 150s will soldier on to the end of Diesel Multiple Units. What replaces them will either run off Electricity or Hydrogen. And when they go wrong, they can be fixed easily - a very simple design. Give them to 2035.

 

[RUK]

Unless a certain Swiss manufacturer wants to make a 2 car version of the 755s; which I can’t see happening really

Isn't the relatively new Stadler WINK a 2-car FLIRT? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadler_WINK

Produktdetail - Stadler

www.stadlerrail.com

Or do you mean specifically for the U.K. market?

 

[TrainTrackJack]

Isn't the relatively new Stadler WINK a 2-car FLIRT? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadler_WINK

Produktdetail - Stadler

www.stadlerrail.com

Or do you mean specifically for the U.K. market?

For the UK loading gauge

 

[RUK]

For the UK loading gauge

They have all the components they need now that they have the U.K. FLIRT, so I guess they could do so. I guess it depends on the order size, and if whoever's paying for them is willing to pay Stadler's cost per unit. They say the WINK's flexible and its power pack can be fitted with fuel cells apart from the tri-mode options in the 756s if necessary.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Well. I have heard a source saying that Southern's 455/8 will be going but I do not know which Rolling Stock will be replacing the Southern 455/8's. In the next year. I think we can say farewell to 455/8's.

 

[swt_passenger]

Well. I have heard a source saying that Southern's 455/8 will be going but I do not know which Rolling Stock will be replacing the Southern 455/8's. In the next year. I think we can say farewell to 455/8's.

It’s been posted dozens of times over the last few years, but there’s never any quotable evidence.

 

[Whistler40145]

What will eventually replace 156s between Barrow in Furness and Carlisle as 195s aren’t cleared for the route?